2. Outline
How to optimize the performance of your Offshore Wind Park from
birth to adult life with respect to the impact of climate?
About ConWx
Metocean forecast and hindcast
Metocean observations
Lesson learnt
Next step?
Our offshore references
It’s all about Weather Risk Management……
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3. How are we?
A forecasting centre with 6 global core business areas
Numerical Wind Power Metocean Metocean Energy Trading Energy and
Weather and Forecasts Forecasts and Observation Forecasts Water
Wave Models analysis System Consultancy
From Weather Predictions to Business Value
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4. Sectors and services
ConWx- a forecasting centre
Service Areas Renewable lifecycle engagement
Wind Parks (experience from ALL offshore parks) ConWx offers a full range of global
-Site Assessments services covering the entire lifecycle of
renewable investment projects, combining
-Metocean Forecasts
in-depth wind industry expertise and best
-WTG Power Forecasts for +2400 units
practices in management consulting,
Numerical Weather and Wave Predictions forecasting and site services
Energy trading services and forecasts
State-of-the-art numerical weather
predictions, wind turbine generation
predictions, and metocean forecasting
Metocean Observation and Forecasting System
Forecasting and climatic consultancy
The only company with operational
experience in power prediction and
Water & Environment metocean forecasts for offshore parks
Your power is to know
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5. Weather and wave climate
High wind resources offshore
Offshore question?
– but also –
What will the power production be?
Higher construction costs
How accurate will the power predictions be?
Higher transport costs
How many non-working hours are there in
Lower accessibility
October?
Lower availability
Higher risks to health and safety How high is the lightning risk?
Higher project planning risks
Higher project costs
Higher O&M costs
Site: Baltic area
Limits: 10 m/s, 1.5 m Hs
• May-September is best
• Very variable, esp. in Winter
• High exposed to lightning June-September
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6. Generic challenges
Risk management and resource planning in connection with work
concerns the following phases:
-Site statistics
-Installation
-O&M
....and the following areas:
- Materials (Blades, machinery etc.)
- People security (injuries in high wind/waves)
- Transport / chartering (value loss in “bad weather”)
- Time (transport + manpower)
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7. How are Forecasts and hindcast made?
The wave and weather
models:
-Local wave and weather
models 8 days in advance
Fast servers runs the NWP’s
-4 times a day
-180 hr in advance
-Resolution down to 2km
7 State of the art in numerical weather and wave prediction
8. How good are the Hindcasts
Blue line ConWx significant wave height hindcast data for Duerloo (North Sea)
and red line observed significant wave height.
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9. Full Metocean Observations- ADCP/Bouy
- Metmast
- Wave and current
messurements
- LIDAR
- Well proven system
- High performance
- Data logger
- Data presentation
- Data backup
ADCP messurements
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10. Weather risk management
Weather affects:
•Production
• Construction
• O&M
• Planning
Risk management and resource
planning in construction and O&M for
the following areas:
- Materials (Blades, machinery etc.)
- People security (injuries in high wind/lightning etc)
- Transport / chartering (value loss in “bad weather”)
- Time (transport + manpower)
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11. Lesson learnt
9 years experience from all offshore parks in Europe
Main focus on day-ahead forecasts
Intense manual calibration and analysis
ConWx offers:
Intense lightning supervision
- Metocean predictions +10 dy
Local effects very important - Metocean consultancy
- Hindcasts
Value of online observations - Proactive warnings
Daily communication important - Route Forecasts
Intra park forecasts important
- Wind Power Forecasts
Near shore= lower predictability
- Metocean observations
High quality weather and wave models
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