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The Race of Our Lives
A summary of Jeremy Grantham’s note to investors,
in pictures and charts, supplemented with content ...
Preface
The original paper is 35 pages and a read of >1 hour.
These 50 pictures and charts are a scan of <10 minutes.
I am...
Style, content, and sources
Extracts from the Grantham paper are within quotation marks.
All other passages are my underst...
Carbon dioxide, derived mainly from fossil-fuel burning, is the main
problem. Concentrations are >2x highest level in past...
“Please explain to me, if anyone knows, why these people say stuff like
that. I have no idea. Perhaps they hate their gran...
Michael Mann et al’s temperature reconstruction from 1999 in blue.
PAGES2K temperature reconstruction 2013 in green. Data ...
“Jeremy Leggett is one of those prominent establishment climate
activists who has made a tidy living from the renewables s...
One of the worst is increase in downpours ( & soil erosion). In the USA,
annual 3 inch rainfall days compared to average a...
e.g.: “This event is unprecedented & all impacts are
unknown & beyond anything experienced”
7th Jan
2016
27th Aug
2017
Hur...
7th Jan
2016
28th Jun
2017
The Paris Agreement pledges emissions will fall
enough to keep warming < 2˚C & 1.5˚C if we can
...
As global energy demand grew 2.1% in 2017, CO2
emissions rose 1.4% to a historic high of 32.5 Gt
7th Jan
2016
21st Mar
201...
7th Jan
2016
13th Feb
2018
Leak of the forthcoming IPCC report concludes 66%
chance of 1.5˚C target is “already out of rea...
“Wind and solar are going to be cheaper than the operating costs of
coal and nuclear, even the best coal and the best nucl...
7th Jan
2016
13th Jan
2018
Renewable electricity will be consistently in lower
range of undercutting fossil fuels by 2020:...
BNEF estimates the 2nd TW will arrive by mid-2023, costing 46% less
than the c. $1.3 tn required for the first. 54% wind, ...
7th Jan
2016
1st Dec
2017
US coal-fired power plant to be shut down
and replaced by solar
Wisconsin utility WEC Energy’s 1...
Nuclear is “ridiculously expensive”, “utterly uncompetitive”, says the
longstanding nuclear advocate: $9bn now to build on...
Exponential rise of electric vehicles will likely halve today’s cost by 2025,
and halve it again with the next generation ...
BYD’s first electric bus, just seven years ago, was seen as a joke. Now
China’s e-buses are displacing 233,000 barrels of ...
7th Jan
2016
12th Feb
2018
“A Powerful Mix of Solar and Batteries Is Beating
Natural Gas”
e.g. Arizona PS Co. opts for a s...
Case for coal and gas plants is “crumbling” as wind,
solar and battery costs plunge
7th Jan
2016
28th Mar
2018
Bloomberg N...
We will pass 2˚C of global warming around then, and “will be fighting
tooth and nail …to keep below 3˚C by 2100.”
7th Jan
...
“We will need luck, in technology and above all in political leadership:
the need to stand up to the influence of the foss...
7th Jan
2016
26th Oct
2017
Potential emissions from reserves of the Carbon
Underground 200 are > 6 times their carbon budg...
7th Jan
2016
5th July
2018
Ben van Beurden: “You have to believe us that setting an ambition,
sticking my neck out, my per...
7th Jan
2016
12th Dec
2017
Funds managing $26 trillion pledge to pressure the
worst 100 companies on emissions
These 100 =...
“Stop reasoning with the oil majors and sell their
shares instead”: Tom Sanzillo writing in the FT
7th Jan
2016
8th Mar
20...
“$300 bn is less than the amount of losses in the United States alone
from weather and climate disasters in the single yea...
An update report by CERES sees realistic opportunities in the tens of
trillions across an array of asset classes in multip...
The conclusion of an international group of scientists systematically
working through the counter-arguments of a pro-nucle...
So estimates a Stanford University economic study published in Nature.
Cost of action to hit the target: $0.5 tn globally ...
“In my lifetime, the global population has tripled.” (And if you see an
exponential chart like this in investing, “you kno...
Poll data show many millions of Africans hope to migrate to the US and
Europe. As climate stresses descend on economies, s...
“How the Populist Right Is Redrawing the Map
of Europe”
7th Jan
2016
11th Dec
2017
“A rising tide of anti-immigrant and po...
Our 2010-2030 estimate: “productivity per acre would still continue to
grow, other things being even, but at a slowly dimi...
7th Jan
2016
9th Aug
2018
“It is the one or two great downpours every few years that cause the
trouble. We’re losing perha...
“The scary thing is that our crude attempt to put all these factors
together is the first that you, dear reader, have ever...
75% of all reserves are there and Western Sahara (controlled by
Morocco). “And phosphate is more important even than oil.”...
“They have just gone missing. Why isn’t this a dramatic item in our
news? One-third of all the food plants that we eat nee...
Flying insects numbers have plunged by 76% over the past 25 years,
according to a comprehensive German study.
Scientists w...
So an international group of scientists warn, after the most
comprehensive study yet: geographic ranges of 31,000 insect s...
With bees scarce, a drone pollinates an apple
orchard for the first time ….results yet to be seen
7th Jan
2016
7th Jun
201...
“Investors are sinking hundreds of millions into a
technology that could revolutionize the way we eat”
7th Jan
2016
3rd Au...
“We deforest the land, we degrade our soils, we pollute and overuse our
water, and we treat our air like an open sewer. Al...
7th Jan
2016
9th Aug
2018
How GMO invests in
the face of all this
In the portfolio of climate change
opportunities “what w...
7th Jan
2016
As for producers of fossil fuels and toxic chemicals,
the data show you can divest without loss
Annualized Ab...
Global movement divesting from fossil fuels has
reached $5.5 trillion across multiple sectors
7th Jan
2016
3rd Oct
2017
Ca...
7th Jan
2016
16th Nov
2017
Norwegian Central Bank, manager of the oil fund,
tells government it should divest from oil and...
“Oil must face its future as a declining industry”:
Legal & General Investment Management in the FT
7th Jan
2016
13th Jun
...
“Big Oil must pay for climate change. Now we can
calculate how much”: leading climate scientists.
7th Jan
2016
7th Sep
201...
7th Jan
2016
9th Aug
2018 What should we do? Some recommendations
• Vote for green politicians …& that can include some
Re...
30th Sep
2015
18th Sep
2015
UNGA agrees Sustainable Development Goals
Aim: to eradicate poverty via sustainable developmen...
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The Race of Our Lives: A summary of Jeremy Grantham’s seminal note to investors, in pictures and charts, supplemented with content from Future Today

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A precis of the recently-updated 35 page classic note by the investment legend, aiming to be readable in minutes. Subject: climate change meets population meets soil meets agriculture, meets other problems .....and implications for both investors and the rest of us.

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The Race of Our Lives: A summary of Jeremy Grantham’s seminal note to investors, in pictures and charts, supplemented with content from Future Today

  1. 1. The Race of Our Lives A summary of Jeremy Grantham’s note to investors, in pictures and charts, supplemented with content from Future Today Jeremy Leggett
  2. 2. Preface The original paper is 35 pages and a read of >1 hour. These 50 pictures and charts are a scan of <10 minutes. I am hoping, therefore, that they are a useful supplement …and importantly an inducement to read the original paper. The supplementary slides are from the Future Today chronology of selected developments in climate, energy, tech and the future of civilization: www.jeremyleggett.net
  3. 3. Style, content, and sources Extracts from the Grantham paper are within quotation marks. All other passages are my understanding of the main points. The powerpoint version of this summary includes source urls as notes, and is available free for any use, by anybody, at https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1pJlLMT57QZbUP0ZjWf5RMrexzDuanaC2 The original Jeremy Grantham paper can be downloaded at https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/research-and-commentary/strategies/asset- allocation/the-race-of-our-lives-revisited.pdf
  4. 4. Carbon dioxide, derived mainly from fossil-fuel burning, is the main problem. Concentrations are >2x highest level in past 400k years. 7th Jan 2016 The reasons we are in a race-against-time begin with rapid build up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere Source:NOAA,summarizingdatafromicecores
  5. 5. “Please explain to me, if anyone knows, why these people say stuff like that. I have no idea. Perhaps they hate their grandchildren.” 7th Jan 2016 Rising GHGs are driving accelerating global warming: a provable fact, yet some still say there is no warming Global Surface Temperature Compared to 1951-1980 Average Source:Asof8/31/16Source:NASA GoddardInstituteforSpaceStudies,GMO
  6. 6. Michael Mann et al’s temperature reconstruction from 1999 in blue. PAGES2K temperature reconstruction 2013 in green. Data record in red. A “hockey stick” of global average temperature rise was first published 20 years ago 7th Jan 2016 20th Apr 2018
  7. 7. “Jeremy Leggett is one of those prominent establishment climate activists who has made a tidy living from the renewables scam.” 7th Jan 2016 28th Jul 2018 Today, even tabloids worry about global heatwaves, …but some columnists keep pumping out denial
  8. 8. One of the worst is increase in downpours ( & soil erosion). In the USA, annual 3 inch rainfall days compared to average are up 20% since 1975. 7th Jan 2016 9th Aug 2018 Dire impacts are becoming clear, and these will increase unless we decarbonize our economies Source:EM-DATdatabase
  9. 9. e.g.: “This event is unprecedented & all impacts are unknown & beyond anything experienced” 7th Jan 2016 27th Aug 2017 Hurricane Harvey forecast rainfall Houston city officials: “Head to your roofs, not your attics” So says the US National Weather Service
  10. 10. 7th Jan 2016 28th Jun 2017 The Paris Agreement pledges emissions will fall enough to keep warming < 2˚C & 1.5˚C if we can Decarbonisation by 2040 As a long list of climate experts summarise in Nature, that means total decarbonization - retreat from burning fossil fuels - by c. 2040. Source:C.Figueresetal
  11. 11. As global energy demand grew 2.1% in 2017, CO2 emissions rose 1.4% to a historic high of 32.5 Gt 7th Jan 2016 21st Mar 2018 “We are far from being in line with the climate targets set in Paris”: Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director. Flat Global energy-related CO2 emissions 2000 - 2017 Source: IEA
  12. 12. 7th Jan 2016 13th Feb 2018 Leak of the forthcoming IPCC report concludes 66% chance of 1.5˚C target is “already out of reach”
  13. 13. “Wind and solar are going to be cheaper than the operating costs of coal and nuclear, even the best coal and the best nuclear.” 7th Jan 2016 “Our one material advantage is in the accelerating burst of green technologies” Unsubsidized Levelized Cost of Renewable Energy over Time Source:Lazard,asofend2016 “….better than anyone expected 10 or even 5 years ago”
  14. 14. 7th Jan 2016 13th Jan 2018 Renewable electricity will be consistently in lower range of undercutting fossil fuels by 2020: IRENA e.g. Expect global weighted cost of utility-scale solar PV to fall from $0.10/kWh in 2017 to $0.03 in 2018, and to average $0.06.
  15. 15. BNEF estimates the 2nd TW will arrive by mid-2023, costing 46% less than the c. $1.3 tn required for the first. 54% wind, 46% solar. 7th Jan 2016 2nd Aug 2018 World passes 1,000 GW of wind and solar, on a rising exponential curve, in the last days of June
  16. 16. 7th Jan 2016 1st Dec 2017 US coal-fired power plant to be shut down and replaced by solar Wisconsin utility WEC Energy’s 1,190MW Pleasant Prairie plant to be replaced by a 350 MW solar farm
  17. 17. Nuclear is “ridiculously expensive”, “utterly uncompetitive”, says the longstanding nuclear advocate: $9bn now to build one reactor. 7th Jan 2016 24th July 2018 Nuclear power can’t compete with solar power: former IEA boss Nobuaki Tanaka
  18. 18. Exponential rise of electric vehicles will likely halve today’s cost by 2025, and halve it again with the next generation of solid-state batteries. 7th Jan 2016 9th Aug 2018 Battery cost “has dropped 85% in 8 years, faster than solar panels, wind or anything else. Quite remarkable” Lithium-ion Battery Pack Prices and Annual Decline Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance,GMO Lowendof2025estimaterange,at$40/kWh,assumes adoptionofnext-generationsolid-statebatterytechnology.
  19. 19. BYD’s first electric bus, just seven years ago, was seen as a joke. Now China’s e-buses are displacing 233,000 barrels of oil a day. Every five weeks, Chinese cities are adding 9,500 electric buses – the size of the London bus fleet 7th Jan 2016 23rd Apr 2018 Honda’s Asimo
  20. 20. 7th Jan 2016 12th Feb 2018 “A Powerful Mix of Solar and Batteries Is Beating Natural Gas” e.g. Arizona PS Co. opts for a solar-battery project cheaper than gas. California PURC requires PG&E to use batteries over gas. The Way Humans Get Electricity Is About To Change Forever
  21. 21. Case for coal and gas plants is “crumbling” as wind, solar and battery costs plunge 7th Jan 2016 28th Mar 2018 Bloomberg New Energy Finance says its latest conclusions have “chilling” implications for fossil generators. • Global LCOE falls 18% YOY for both onshore wind and PV in first six months of 2018 …to $55/MWh and $70MWh respectively • Offshore wind down 5% to $118/MWh • 79% fall in lithium-ion battery costs since 2010
  22. 22. We will pass 2˚C of global warming around then, and “will be fighting tooth and nail …to keep below 3˚C by 2100.” 7th Jan 2016 9th Aug 2018 The bad news is that on current trends climate change will “barely be slowing down” by 2050 Source: OurWorldinData.org, Vaclav Smil, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre, GMO Data from 2015-2050 is estimated or forecast. Annual Energy Supplied by Fossil Fuels, and Cumulative CO2 Emissions
  23. 23. “We will need luck, in technology and above all in political leadership: the need to stand up to the influence of the fossil fuel industry.” 7th Jan 2016 9th Aug 2018 A major barrier is that the fossil fuel industries dislike the regulation that is the only hope of fixing climate Picture from Future Today: routine flaring of gas in oil operations. If the the gas burnt in flares were captured and used for power generation, it could supply 90% of Africa’s electricity.
  24. 24. 7th Jan 2016 26th Oct 2017 Potential emissions from reserves of the Carbon Underground 200 are > 6 times their carbon budget The CU 200 are the top 200 publicly-quoted companies as measured in size of fossil-fuel reserves. 2017 -2050 The Carbon Underground 200TM allocated carbon budget i.e. their pro-rata share of IPCC’s 80% chance of 2˚C (598 GtCO2) 80.4 GtCO2 2017 The Carbon Underground 200TM potential emissions in reserves 491.9 GtCO2 Coal reserves 341.2 GtCO2 Gas reserves 79.3 GtCO2 Oil reserves 71.4 GtCO2
  25. 25. 7th Jan 2016 5th July 2018 Ben van Beurden: “You have to believe us that setting an ambition, sticking my neck out, my personal reputation, the reputation of the company, is a big enough incentive for me to get it right.” Shell CEO says firm carbon emissions targets are “superfluous”, and society should simply trust him
  26. 26. 7th Jan 2016 12th Dec 2017 Funds managing $26 trillion pledge to pressure the worst 100 companies on emissions These 100 = 2/3rds global total emissions. 225 institutions are signed up to pressure them, incl. HSBC Global Asset Management, Calpers, Axa ++,
  27. 27. “Stop reasoning with the oil majors and sell their shares instead”: Tom Sanzillo writing in the FT 7th Jan 2016 8th Mar 2018 “The shareholder engagement process increasingly looks like a cynical exercise” where they just talk to buy time. Tom Sanzillo, former first deputy comptroller of New York State
  28. 28. “$300 bn is less than the amount of losses in the United States alone from weather and climate disasters in the single year of 2017.” 7th Jan 2016 9th Aug 2018 We spend c. $300 bn a year on clean energy today, & need c. $2tn p.a. for 100% decarbonisation by 2050 Annual Global Renewable Energy Capex Source:DNVGL.Asof9/30/18. Datafrom2015-2050isestimatedorforecast.
  29. 29. An update report by CERES sees realistic opportunities in the tens of trillions across an array of asset classes in multiple sectors. The “clean trillion” - the extra c. $1 tn p.a. needed through 2050 for Paris 2˚C - is “eminently feasible” 7th Jan 2016 10th May 2018 Summary of conclusion in the original 2014 CERES report on closing the clean energy investment gap
  30. 30. The conclusion of an international group of scientists systematically working through the counter-arguments of a pro-nuclear group. “There are no roadblocks on the way to a 100% renewable future”: all issues solvable at low cost 7th Jan 2016 17th May 2018 Future Today
  31. 31. So estimates a Stanford University economic study published in Nature. Cost of action to hit the target: $0.5 tn globally in next 30 years. Hitting 1.5˚C Paris target vs 2˚ will save the world c. $30 trillion in climate-related damages by 2030 7th Jan 2016 23rd May 2018 Future Today
  32. 32. “In my lifetime, the global population has tripled.” (And if you see an exponential chart like this in investing, “you know what to do: go short”). 7th Jan 2016 9th Aug 2018 “It is time now for the terrible news …the issue is food sufficiency” and it begins with global population World Population and Projections to 2100 Source:UNWorldPopulationProspects. Asof1/25/18.
  33. 33. Poll data show many millions of Africans hope to migrate to the US and Europe. As climate stresses descend on economies, so numbers will rise. 7th Jan 2016 9th Aug 2018 “The real problem with population. In a word, Africa.” World Population to 2100 – Medium UN Estimate Source:UNWorldPopulationProspects. Asof1/25/18.
  34. 34. “How the Populist Right Is Redrawing the Map of Europe” 7th Jan 2016 11th Dec 2017 “A rising tide of anti-immigrant and populist sentiment that is sweeping aside or weakening mainstream party politics across the continent”.
  35. 35. Our 2010-2030 estimate: “productivity per acre would still continue to grow, other things being even, but at a slowly diminishing rate.” 7th Jan 2016 9th Aug 2018 Average Annual Agricultural Productivity Growth in the United States Average of yield growth for corn, wheat, and rice Source:USDANASS *GMOprojectionexcludingfutureeffectsof erosionandclimatechange.Asof1/31/18 . US & Europe are under food stress as is: productivity of grains per acre is falling as natural limits approach
  36. 36. 7th Jan 2016 9th Aug 2018 “It is the one or two great downpours every few years that cause the trouble. We’re losing perhaps 1% of our collective global soil a year. We are losing about a half a percent of our arable land a year.” But other things are not even. We have soil erosion and climate change impacts to contend with… Gullying after heavy rain Soil Depth in Iowa Has Halved Since Intensive Cultivation Began
  37. 37. “The scary thing is that our crude attempt to put all these factors together is the first that you, dear reader, have ever seen!” 7th Jan 2016 And when we combine the effects of grain productivity limits, climate change, and soil erosion…. US grain yields, historical and projected Index averaging corn, soy and rice yields 2017 =1 . Source:USDANASS,Rhodes2014,Liangetal 2017,GMO.AsofendApril2018. “It is calculated that there are only 30 to 70 good harvest years left, depending on your location”
  38. 38. 75% of all reserves are there and Western Sahara (controlled by Morocco). “And phosphate is more important even than oil.” 7th Jan 2016 9th Aug 2018 Then there is the issue of phosphate - we depend on that for fertilizer, and therefore depend on Morocco Source: USGS. As of end 2012. .
  39. 39. “They have just gone missing. Why isn’t this a dramatic item in our news? One-third of all the food plants that we eat need pollination, every flower needs a pollinator. What we’ve done is created a toxic world, which is apparently not conducive to life as we know it.” 7th Jan 2016 9th Aug 2018 “The next piece of very bad news: the 75% loss of flying insects …These are our pollinators”
  40. 40. Flying insects numbers have plunged by 76% over the past 25 years, according to a comprehensive German study. Scientists warn of “ecological Armageddon” after discovering a dramatic plunge in insect numbers 7th Jan 2016 18th Oct 2017
  41. 41. So an international group of scientists warn, after the most comprehensive study yet: geographic ranges of 31,000 insect species. Climate change will cause “major insect wipeout” with “far-reaching disruption to life on Earth” 7th Jan 2016 17th May 2018 Future Today Image:GuardianGraphic basedonWarrenetal,Science Percentage of species losing more than half their range by 2100
  42. 42. With bees scarce, a drone pollinates an apple orchard for the first time ….results yet to be seen 7th Jan 2016 7th Jun 2018 Dan Robitzski of Wired: It is “like putting a bandage over a big, gruesome cut that we didn’t even clean first.” New York state
  43. 43. “Investors are sinking hundreds of millions into a technology that could revolutionize the way we eat” 7th Jan 2016 3rd Aug 2017 Indoor vertical farming: food grown on trays or hanging modules in a climate-controlled, indoor facility, without pesticides, and much else.
  44. 44. “We deforest the land, we degrade our soils, we pollute and overuse our water, and we treat our air like an open sewer. All of this is off the balance sheet and off the income statement.” 7th Jan 2016 9th Aug 2018 Capitalism and economics, as currently configured, fuel the problems we are talking about
  45. 45. 7th Jan 2016 9th Aug 2018 How GMO invests in the face of all this In the portfolio of climate change opportunities “what we’re trying to do is understand, a little ahead of the market, these powerful and complicated new crosswinds as we decarbonize” “….I can say that I have a very high-confidence belief that these industries collectively will have higher top-line revenue growth than the balance of the economy”
  46. 46. 7th Jan 2016 As for producers of fossil fuels and toxic chemicals, the data show you can divest without loss Annualized Absolute Returns (Nominal Terms): 1989.2017 Range: 50 bps Source:S&P,GMO.AsofendSept.2017 “These are the facts – not the hearsay of investment committees that have managed to maintain an erroneous, but perhaps convenient, consistency over decades on this issue.” The effect of dropping one sector out of 10 over the last 18 years
  47. 47. Global movement divesting from fossil fuels has reached $5.5 trillion across multiple sectors 7th Jan 2016 3rd Oct 2017 Catholic church makes record faith-based divestment from fossil fuels on birthday of St Francis of Assisi: 40 institutions, 4x previous record.
  48. 48. 7th Jan 2016 16th Nov 2017 Norwegian Central Bank, manager of the oil fund, tells government it should divest from oil and gas Biggest holding end 2016: $5.3 bn in Shell
  49. 49. “Oil must face its future as a declining industry”: Legal & General Investment Management in the FT 7th Jan 2016 13th Jun 2018 LGIM’s CIO and a commodities specialist suggest that rather than transition to renewables, oil companies stop investing and return cash.
  50. 50. “Big Oil must pay for climate change. Now we can calculate how much”: leading climate scientists. 7th Jan 2016 7th Sep 2017 “Nearly 30% of the rise in global sea level between 1880 and 2010 resulted from emissions traced to the 90 largest carbon producers.” Myles Allen, Oxford University, et al
  51. 51. 7th Jan 2016 9th Aug 2018 What should we do? Some recommendations • Vote for green politicians …& that can include some Republicans. • Lobby investment firms to be greener and to lean on their portfolio companies to do the same. • Do not grant the oil companies immunity – they have been complicit in a global cover up of data, funded propaganda, delayed decarbonization, and “recklessly endangered us.” • Consume with decarbonization in the front of mind. “We’re racing to protect not just our portfolios, not just our grandchildren, but our species. So get to it.”
  52. 52. 30th Sep 2015 18th Sep 2015 UNGA agrees Sustainable Development Goals Aim: to eradicate poverty via sustainable development Governments are aware of most of the problems in Jeremy Grantham’s paper, and have pledged to tackle them. But progress so far falls short.

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