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The Rise of ChinaA report on why Australian tourism operators should consider becoming “China Ready” Prepared by This is an Australian Government funded initiative under T-QUAL Grants welcomingchinesevisitors.com
“This brief report will provide an introduction to theexpansion of China’s growing economy. Compared totraditional markets such as Europe, China is experiencing Many internationala higher rate of economic growth leading to rapidurbanisation and a rising middle class who are becoming travellers currently resideincreasingly interested in overseas travel. It is also in Tier 1 cities, however,important to be aware of China’s tiered city system. Manyinternational travellers currently reside in Tier 1 cities,however, many other cities are experiencing growthwhich means there is great potential for future travel.After reading this report, you will be aware of China’s many other cities are experiencing growth which means there is great “rapid economic growth and the opportunity this presentsfor the Australian tourism industry. potential for future travel.Table ofContentsUrbanisation in China 4GDP 4Europe and China: A Comparison 5Europe and China Geographical Comparison 6Urbanisation in China and Europe 7Wealth & Consumption in China 8Rapidly Rising Incomes 8High Net Worth Individuals 8China’s Tiered City System 9References 10Rise of China Report Prepared by AVANA 2
Recent Economic Indicators 07 08 09 10 11(a) 12(b) GDP (US$bn) 3494.2 4520.0 4990.5 5930.4 7298.1 7991.7 GDP PPP (US$bn) 7329.9 8214.4 9065.9 10128.3 11300.0 123870 GDP Per capital (US$) 2645 3404 3739 4421 5414 5899 GDP Per Capita PPP (US$) 5548 6185 5792 75550 8382 9143 Real GDP Growth (% Change yoy) 14.2 9.6 9.2 10.4 9.2 8.0 Current Account balance (US$m) 353900 412400 261000 305300 201000 181719 Current account balance (%GDP) 10.1 9.1 5.2 5.1 2.8 2.3 Goods & Services Exports (%GDP) 38.4 35.0 26.7 29.6 29.4 27.7 Inflation (% Change yoy) 4.8 5.9 -0.7 3.3 5.4 3.3 (a) All recent data subject to revision (b) IMF/EIU estimateSource: Department of Foreign Affairs and TradeThe Riseof China $8,569China has experienced rapid economic growth overthe past two decades, and forecasts suggest that the $5,171purchasing power of Chinese consumers will continue $3,066to surge. $2,567 China’s GDP has risen at unprecedented levels $1,677 $1,362 Higher middle class incomes mean more discretionary spending leading to increased $951 capacity to travel, which is also stimulated by more $781 $698 $613 scheduled holiday periods throughout the year $570 China has over 500,000 high net worth individuals and Australia is a top luxury travel destination 1957 1962 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Real GDP Per Capita (PPP) in US Dollars by the end of each FYP, 1953-2010 Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Database.Rise of China Report Prepared by AVANA 3
Urbanisation in China 300 million 23 20-50k China will have an Over the next two Between 2010 and 2025, estimated 23 cities with decades China will build it is estimated that 300 a population of 5 million 20,000 to 50,000 new million Chinese now or more by 2025. skyscrapers, or the living in rural areas will equivalent of TEN New move into cities York-sized cities. 163 China will have an 1/5 China became the estimated 163 cities world’s largest with a population of a construction market in million or more by 2025. 2010. By 2020, China is predicted to account for one-fifth of the global construction industrySource: McKinsey & Co. report “Preparing for China’s urban billion”March 2009GDPAccording to the Department of Foreign Affairs and With this rise in GDP comes a growing middle class thatTrade, China experienced a sustained period of rapid has a huge appetite for products and services that wereeconomic expansion until a recent slowdown in 2009. previously out of reach. Twenty years ago, this middleUntil this point, the last two decades had averaged class strived for ownership of push bikes, televisionsaround 10 per cent GDP growth. McKinsey China and washing machines, these days the middle class isInsights reports in its 2012 Annual Chinese Consumer striving for a new big three - cars, houses and travel.Report that consumer spending power will soar, even ina slower-growing China.Rise of China Report Prepared by AVANA 4
China Recent Economic Indicators 07 08 09 10 11(a) 12(b) Real GDP Growth (% Change yoy) 14.2 9.6 9.2 10.4 9.2 8.0 Current Account balance (US$m) 353900 412400 261000 305300 201000 181719 Current account balance (%GDP) 10.1 9.1 5.2 5.1 2.8 2.3 (a) All recent data subject to revision (b) IMF/EIU estimate European Union Recent Economic Indicators 07 08 09 10 11(a) 12(b) Real GDP Growth (% Change yoy) 3.4 0.5 -4.2 2.0 1.6 0.0 Current Account balance (US$m) -66860 -183797 -15877 -24591 17133 51,082 Current account balance (%GDP) -0.4 -1.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.3 (a) All recent data subject to revision (b) IMF forecastSource: Department of Foreign Affairs and TradeEurope and China: A ComparisonTo put the exceptional economic growth of China inperspective, the figures above compare China with amore traditional tourism trade partner, the EuropeanUnion. China’s GDP in 2012 is forecast to grow at a rate of8%, while the European Union is forecast at 0% growth.Rise of China Report Prepared by AVANA 5
Europe and China Geographical Comparison 9561 sq km 4,331 sq km China European Union 1348.1 500.6 1,348.1 million 500.6 million population populationSource: Department of Foreign Affairs and TradeRise of China Report Prepared by AVANA 6
Urbanisation in China, 1978–2010 50 40 30 20 10 % 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010Source: China statistical yearbook 2011.Urbanisation in China and EuropeBased on United Nations (UN) projections, the rate ofurbanisation in China is expected to be:China Europe 68% 73% 68% by 2040, equivalent by 2050 the rate of to the urbanisation rate urbanisation for Europe projected for Japan in will be 73% 2015It is projected that by 2030, the urban population of Whilst traditional markets still offer the Australia strongChina will reach one billion and by 2025, China will have trade opportunities, this quick comparison of China and163 cities of over one million residents, compared with Europe highlights China’s growing importance for our63 cities of that size in Europe. country.Rise of China Report Prepared by AVANA 7
Wealth & Consumption in China 271 1 Million 1/4 500% There are now 271 China now has 1 million ¼ of the world’s cars are The average income has billionaires in China millionaires sold in China risen 500% since 2001 ($US), up from 130 in 2009. 22% 850 450 20% million millionChina consumes around China has the world’s China has the world’s China is the world’s22% of the worlds energy largest mobile phone largest Internet second largest consumer population with over 850 population with over 450 of luxury goods following million active accounts million Chinese internet Japan, and will account in 2011 users as of 2010 for about 20 percent ($27 billion) of global luxury sales in 2015Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China www.china-mike.com/facts-about-china/Rapidly Rising Incomes High Net Worth IndividualsChina’s strong economic growth has resulted in rising According to the 2011 China Private Wealth Report byincomes meaning that the Chinese consumer population China Merchants Bank with Bain & Company, there arehas more discretionary funds available for purchases over 500,000 people with disposable assets of US$1.6such as travel. On 13 August 2012, the New York Times million (termed high net worth individuals or HNWIs).reported that affluence is arriving faster than many The report also states that in 2010, 15 provinces/economists anticipated, and based on annual surveys municipalities each had more than 10,000 HNWIs,carried out since 2005, a giant leap is forecast by 2020, increasing by four since 2008 with the inclusion ofaccording to consulting firm McKinsey analysts. Tianjin, Hunan, Hubei and Anhui. More than 50 per cent of China’s wealthy remain clustered in five provinces:By 2020, there will be 167 million “mainstream” Guangdong, Shanghai, Beijing, Zhejiang and Jiangsu,consumer households in China with annual disposable which are all located on the east coast and are generallyincome of between $16,000 and $34,000. This is over 10 more developed then other provinces in China.times the 14 million, or 6 percent, who currently fit thatdefinition. McKinsey also predicts that there will be 120million households with $6,000 to $15,999 of spendingpower.Rise of China Report Prepared by AVANA 8
Tier 1 Cities Tier 2 Cities Tier 1 Tier 2 China’s Tiered City System Tier 1 Cities - Beijing, Tier 2 Cities - Chengdu, China can be categorised into three tiers of development,Shanghai and Guangzhou Chongqing, Hangzhou, with the East coast cities being the most developed and Nanjing, Qingdao, Tianjin, the Western cities being the least. This is important for Shenyang, Shenzhen, the Australian tourism industry to understand as the Suzhou, Wuhan, Xiamen vast majority of Chinese visitors are coming from Tier 1 cities, followed by the Tier 2 cities.Rise of China Report Prepared by AVANA 9
ReferencesDepartment of Foreign Affairs and Trade 2012, China Factsheet, viewed 15 September 2012,<www.dfat.gov.au/geo/fs/chin.pdf>Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade 2012, People’s Republic of China country brief, viewed 15 September2012,<www.dfat.gov.au/geo/china/china_brief.html>Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade 2012, European Union Factsheet, viewed 21 September 2012,<www.dfat.gov.au/geo/fs/eu.pdf>McKinsey & Company, 2009, Preparing for China’s urban billion, McKinsey Global Institute, viewed September2012,<www.mckinsey.com/insights/mgi/research/urbanization/preparing_for_urban_billion_in_china>The New York Times, Consumer Growth Could Buoy China’s Slowed Economy, August 13, 2012, viewed 26September 2012,<www.nytimes.com/2012/08/14/business/global/consumer-growth-could-buoy-chinas-slowed-economy.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0>Tourism Australia 2012, China Market Profile 2012, viewed 13 September 2012,<www.tourism.australia.com/en-au/downloads/MarketProfiles2012_China.pdf>Tourism Australia 2012, 2020 China Strategic Plan – Progress Report, viewed 13 September 2012,<www.tourism.australia.com/en-au/downloads/China2020_1YearOn.pdf>Tourism Western Australia 2012, Our Direction in China 2012-2015, viewed on 20 September 2012,<www.tourism.wa.gov.au/Publications%20Library/Marketing/Tourism_WA_Our_Direction_in_China_2012-2015.pdf>Rise of China Report Prepared by AVANA 10
Interested in Learning More About China?A consortium consisting of AVANA, China Ready & To register your interest and find out more about theAccredited, ATEC, and TAFE NSW - WSI has collaborated program, visit welcomingchinesevisitors.com.to bring you the Welcoming Chinese Visitors Programwhich is funded by the Department of Resources,Energy and TourismThis is a training program delivered via face to faceworkshops and a highly interactive eLearning courseand includes the following modules: This is an Australian Government funded initiative under T-QUAL Grants Product Ready - this will step you through the process of ensuring that your product is, first and foremost, export ready Sales Ready - once you know your product is ready, getting Sales Ready is the next important step in working through the process to engage with China Service Ready - this step ensures that you will have the understanding and awareness to deliver the service and standards that Chinese consumers will expect when they visit AustraliaProgram partners Products & Services Chinese Consumers Can Trust