SlideShare ist ein Scribd-Unternehmen logo
1 von 28
Downloaden Sie, um offline zu lesen
Why do we keep stalking bears, when
we only find scat in the woods?
Hans Ormel’s contribution to
psychosomatic scatology
James C. Coyne, PhD
Professor Emeritus, University of Pennsylvania
Professor, University of Groningen, University Medical
Center Groningen (UMCG), The Netherlands
“Discovery” -> Disappointment -> Decline.
Recurring cycles of premature,
exaggerated, and simply false
“discoveries” concerning
negative emotion and health.
Hans Ormel’s work can be
used to set a higher threshold
for future declarations of
“discoveries.”
Negative emotion and health why do we keep stalking bears, when we only find scat in the woods
John Snow and the Broad
Street Pump Handle
For over half a century, researchers in
psychosomatic medicine have stalked an
elusive trophy bear, a modifiable connection
between negative emotion and morbidity and
mortality.
Claims of finding one have attract
considerable attention again and again, only
to lead to embarrassing disconfirmations.
Depressive symptoms linked to
Death, dementia, coronary artery disease, cancer,
asthma, diabetes, Parkinson’s disease, COPD,
headaches, insomnia, acne, health problems after
pregnancy, lower back pain, anorgasmia,
premature ejaculation, impotence, hypertension,
HIV viral load, poor glycemic control, constipation,
diarrhea, nausea, chronic pelvic pain,
incontinence, …and flatulence.
Negative emotion and health why do we keep stalking bears, when we only find scat in the woods
Negative emotion and health why do we keep stalking bears, when we only find scat in the woods
Just as many
oncologists now view
pain as a symptom to
be treated, they should
also consider
depression a symptom
to be treated to improve
quality of—and possibly
extend—life.
The National Heart Lung and Blood Institute
ENRICH-D trial was an expensive attempt to
show we could save cardiac patients from re-
infarction and death by improving the outcome
of their depression.
Clinical depression was the identified bear.
But in hindsight, ENRICH-D does not seem to have been
on the trail of a bear. Maybe was just making too much
of scat in the woods.
Bear Scat
ENRICH-D presumed clinical depression
was the long sought bear-modifiable risk
factor.
Target may only have been scat on the
trail—uniformative risk marker.
Shooting scat does not reduce mortality.
Negative emotion and health why do we keep stalking bears, when we only find scat in the woods
Negative emotion and health why do we keep stalking bears, when we only find scat in the woods
Coyne JC, van Sonderen E:
The Hospital Anxiety and
Depression Scale (HADS) is
dead, but like Elvis, there will
still be citings. Journal of
Psychosomatic Research.
73:77-78.
Meehl (1990) applied “crud factor” to
the broader tendency of self-reported
negative factors to be correlated in
ways that cannot readily be
unambiguously differentiated.
Ketterer MW, Denollet J, Goldberg AD,
McCullough PA, John S, Farha AJ, et
al. The big mush: psychometric
measures are confounded and non-
independent in their association with
age at initial diagnosis of Ischaemic
Coronary Heart Disease. J Cardiovasc
Risk 2002; 9(1): 41-48.
Lesperance and Frasure-Smith
Denollet et al. added a new term – the distressed
personality (Type D) – to a field congested with related
concepts including type A personality, anger and hostility,
psychological stress, vital exhaustion, major depression,
depressive symptoms, and social isolation. Each of these
concepts enjoyed a period of prime time exposure following
publication of one or more epidemiological reports linking it
to mortality in patients with CHD and then declined in
popularity.…
John Ioannidis
Most “discoveries” in biomedical literature are
premature, exaggerated, or simply false.
Apparent discoveries are created and
perpetuated by a combination of confirmatory
bias, flexible rules of design, data analysis and
reporting, and significance chasing.
Beware of unexpected large findings from
small samples.
The psychological sciences may be particularly
susceptible because many of the psychological
variables and outcomes measured and analyzed
are often convoluted, complex, and highly
correlated.
There is large flexibility in definitions, uses of cut-
offs, modeling, and statistical handling of the data,
hence large room for exploratory analyses.
John Ioannidis (2012)
Obliged replication: Proponents of dominant
view are so strong in controlling the publication
venues that they can largely select and mold
the results, wording, and interpretation of
studies eventually published.
Negative emotion and health why do we keep stalking bears, when we only find scat in the woods
John MacLeod and George Davey
Smith
Challenge of distinguishing causal influence of negative
affect from other negative environmental and physical
health variables.
 High likelihood of noncausal relationships generated by
confounding between self-reported negative affect and
physical health outcomes.
 Residual confounding often impossible to rule out.
 Plausible biological mechanism can almost always be
cited, so not a good way of excluding spurious findings.
Hans Ormel -- Neuroticism: a non-
informative marker of vulnerability
Broad set of items describing anxiety,
insecurity, irritability, anger, hostility, worry,
depression, frustration, self-consciousness,
emotionality, sensitivity to criticism, stress
reactivity, and impulsiveness.
Hans Ormel -- Neuroticism: a non-
informative marker of vulnerability
Prospective studies of associations of
neuroticism with mental health outcomes are
basically futile, and largely tautological since
scores on any characteristic with substantial
within-subject stability will predict, by definition,
that characteristic and related variables at later
points in time.
Hans Ormel
What about hard biomedical outcomes…like
death?
Need to rule out antecedent and concurrent
associations with known risk factors.
Persons with physical conditions register their
malaise on measures of negative emotion.
“Negative emotion predicts
survival”
Another unexpected large effect from small
study?
Flexible rules of collecting, analyzing
interpreting data?
Spurious association convincingly ruled out?
Only that negative emotion?
Risk factor or uninformative risk indicator?
What’s wrong with continuing to stalk
the bear?
 Continued embarrassment, decreased
credibility
 Squandering of research and clinical
resources
 Denigrating of genuine accomplishments of
behavioral medicine in terms of reducing
behavioral risk factors
 AvaIIable distorted by obliged replication
 Bad message to junior scientists

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Was ist angesagt?

Deep and debilitating wounds neuropsychiatric disease among traumatized children
Deep and debilitating wounds neuropsychiatric disease among traumatized childrenDeep and debilitating wounds neuropsychiatric disease among traumatized children
Deep and debilitating wounds neuropsychiatric disease among traumatized childrenMrsunny4
 
Hypochondriasis by RITIKA SONI
Hypochondriasis by RITIKA SONIHypochondriasis by RITIKA SONI
Hypochondriasis by RITIKA SONIShimla
 
Illness as a stress
Illness as a stressIllness as a stress
Illness as a stressAmjath Ali
 
When ADHD presents in traumatized children: A differential diagnoses.
When ADHD presents in traumatized children: A differential diagnoses.When ADHD presents in traumatized children: A differential diagnoses.
When ADHD presents in traumatized children: A differential diagnoses.sophiaerez
 
Etiology of schizophrenia
Etiology of schizophreniaEtiology of schizophrenia
Etiology of schizophreniasridharlrao1993
 
Factitious disorder
Factitious disorderFactitious disorder
Factitious disorderSneha Arya
 
Soledad Quero - Acceptability of an Online Emotional Therapy System to Apply ...
Soledad Quero - Acceptability of an Online Emotional Therapy System to Apply ...Soledad Quero - Acceptability of an Online Emotional Therapy System to Apply ...
Soledad Quero - Acceptability of an Online Emotional Therapy System to Apply ...WTHS
 
Dr. Thomas Szasz's Critique of Psychiatry
Dr. Thomas Szasz's Critique of PsychiatryDr. Thomas Szasz's Critique of Psychiatry
Dr. Thomas Szasz's Critique of Psychiatryscarcemadness8524
 
Au Psy492 Week7 As2 Elderly Depression Davenport
Au Psy492 Week7 As2 Elderly Depression DavenportAu Psy492 Week7 As2 Elderly Depression Davenport
Au Psy492 Week7 As2 Elderly Depression Davenportsaradavenport
 
Reaction to stressful situations
Reaction to stressful situationsReaction to stressful situations
Reaction to stressful situationsDr Harim Mohsin
 
The Negative Symptoms of Schizophrenia
The Negative Symptoms of SchizophreniaThe Negative Symptoms of Schizophrenia
The Negative Symptoms of SchizophreniaiCliniq
 
A2 Ocd diagnosis issues
A2 Ocd diagnosis issuesA2 Ocd diagnosis issues
A2 Ocd diagnosis issuesJill Jan
 
Hypochondriasis
HypochondriasisHypochondriasis
Hypochondriasisnorthview
 
CORONOFOBIA - Passos práticos para equilibrar as defesas do corpo e da mente
CORONOFOBIA - Passos práticos para equilibrar as defesas do corpo e da menteCORONOFOBIA - Passos práticos para equilibrar as defesas do corpo e da mente
CORONOFOBIA - Passos práticos para equilibrar as defesas do corpo e da menteLouis Cady, MD
 

Was ist angesagt? (20)

Deep and debilitating wounds neuropsychiatric disease among traumatized children
Deep and debilitating wounds neuropsychiatric disease among traumatized childrenDeep and debilitating wounds neuropsychiatric disease among traumatized children
Deep and debilitating wounds neuropsychiatric disease among traumatized children
 
Factitious disorders
Factitious disordersFactitious disorders
Factitious disorders
 
Hypochondriasis by RITIKA SONI
Hypochondriasis by RITIKA SONIHypochondriasis by RITIKA SONI
Hypochondriasis by RITIKA SONI
 
Illness as a stress
Illness as a stressIllness as a stress
Illness as a stress
 
Schizophrenia
SchizophreniaSchizophrenia
Schizophrenia
 
When ADHD presents in traumatized children: A differential diagnoses.
When ADHD presents in traumatized children: A differential diagnoses.When ADHD presents in traumatized children: A differential diagnoses.
When ADHD presents in traumatized children: A differential diagnoses.
 
Etiology of schizophrenia
Etiology of schizophreniaEtiology of schizophrenia
Etiology of schizophrenia
 
Stress
Stress Stress
Stress
 
Hypochondria LC
Hypochondria LCHypochondria LC
Hypochondria LC
 
Factitious disorder
Factitious disorderFactitious disorder
Factitious disorder
 
Genetics in schizophrenia
Genetics in schizophreniaGenetics in schizophrenia
Genetics in schizophrenia
 
Soledad Quero - Acceptability of an Online Emotional Therapy System to Apply ...
Soledad Quero - Acceptability of an Online Emotional Therapy System to Apply ...Soledad Quero - Acceptability of an Online Emotional Therapy System to Apply ...
Soledad Quero - Acceptability of an Online Emotional Therapy System to Apply ...
 
Dr. Thomas Szasz's Critique of Psychiatry
Dr. Thomas Szasz's Critique of PsychiatryDr. Thomas Szasz's Critique of Psychiatry
Dr. Thomas Szasz's Critique of Psychiatry
 
Au Psy492 Week7 As2 Elderly Depression Davenport
Au Psy492 Week7 As2 Elderly Depression DavenportAu Psy492 Week7 As2 Elderly Depression Davenport
Au Psy492 Week7 As2 Elderly Depression Davenport
 
Reaction to stressful situations
Reaction to stressful situationsReaction to stressful situations
Reaction to stressful situations
 
The Negative Symptoms of Schizophrenia
The Negative Symptoms of SchizophreniaThe Negative Symptoms of Schizophrenia
The Negative Symptoms of Schizophrenia
 
Bipolar
BipolarBipolar
Bipolar
 
A2 Ocd diagnosis issues
A2 Ocd diagnosis issuesA2 Ocd diagnosis issues
A2 Ocd diagnosis issues
 
Hypochondriasis
HypochondriasisHypochondriasis
Hypochondriasis
 
CORONOFOBIA - Passos práticos para equilibrar as defesas do corpo e da mente
CORONOFOBIA - Passos práticos para equilibrar as defesas do corpo e da menteCORONOFOBIA - Passos práticos para equilibrar as defesas do corpo e da mente
CORONOFOBIA - Passos práticos para equilibrar as defesas do corpo e da mente
 

Andere mochten auch

Domestic violence
Domestic violence Domestic violence
Domestic violence albireno
 
MHA Stalking Presentation for Clery Center 25th Anniversary Program
MHA Stalking Presentation for Clery Center 25th Anniversary ProgramMHA Stalking Presentation for Clery Center 25th Anniversary Program
MHA Stalking Presentation for Clery Center 25th Anniversary ProgramMargolis Healy
 
Effects of Domestic Violence in Children
Effects of Domestic Violence in ChildrenEffects of Domestic Violence in Children
Effects of Domestic Violence in Childrentherapistfinder com
 
risk management presentation
risk management presentationrisk management presentation
risk management presentationJonathan Gubler
 
Read 142 presentation 2 homeboy industries
Read 142 presentation 2 homeboy industriesRead 142 presentation 2 homeboy industries
Read 142 presentation 2 homeboy industriesGabeochoa
 
Improving outcomes for young people in Counties Manukau - Carl Crafar (Minist...
Improving outcomes for young people in Counties Manukau - Carl Crafar (Minist...Improving outcomes for young people in Counties Manukau - Carl Crafar (Minist...
Improving outcomes for young people in Counties Manukau - Carl Crafar (Minist...robine
 
Girls, Gangs, & Sex
Girls, Gangs, & SexGirls, Gangs, & Sex
Girls, Gangs, & Sexrisat528
 
Tips on mugging,extortion and kidnapping
Tips on mugging,extortion and kidnappingTips on mugging,extortion and kidnapping
Tips on mugging,extortion and kidnappingUsman Farooq
 
Society for Risk Analysis On Transnational Risk & Terrorism
Society for Risk Analysis  On Transnational Risk & TerrorismSociety for Risk Analysis  On Transnational Risk & Terrorism
Society for Risk Analysis On Transnational Risk & TerrorismJohn Marke
 
e-Extortion Trends and Defense
e-Extortion Trends and Defensee-Extortion Trends and Defense
e-Extortion Trends and DefenseErik Iker
 
Hotels restaurants security
Hotels restaurants securityHotels restaurants security
Hotels restaurants securityzaffar abbasi
 
Risk Factors, Risk Assessments, and Collaboration to Prevent Domestic Violenc...
Risk Factors, Risk Assessments, and Collaboration to Prevent Domestic Violenc...Risk Factors, Risk Assessments, and Collaboration to Prevent Domestic Violenc...
Risk Factors, Risk Assessments, and Collaboration to Prevent Domestic Violenc...Adam Varn
 
Herd-Level Management Factors and Culling Rates in Québec Dairy Herds (AABP, ...
Herd-Level Management Factors and Culling Rates in Québec Dairy Herds (AABP, ...Herd-Level Management Factors and Culling Rates in Québec Dairy Herds (AABP, ...
Herd-Level Management Factors and Culling Rates in Québec Dairy Herds (AABP, ...dhaine
 
Risk & Protective Factor Framework: Practical Applications to Problem Gambling
Risk & Protective Factor Framework: Practical Applications to Problem GamblingRisk & Protective Factor Framework: Practical Applications to Problem Gambling
Risk & Protective Factor Framework: Practical Applications to Problem GamblingOregon Problem Gambling Services
 
Terrorism Risk in 2015: Issues and Perspectives
Terrorism Risk in 2015: Issues and PerspectivesTerrorism Risk in 2015: Issues and Perspectives
Terrorism Risk in 2015: Issues and PerspectivesRMS
 

Andere mochten auch (20)

Domestic violence
Domestic violence Domestic violence
Domestic violence
 
The Marsh Report-Terrorism Risk Insurance 2010
The Marsh Report-Terrorism Risk Insurance 2010 The Marsh Report-Terrorism Risk Insurance 2010
The Marsh Report-Terrorism Risk Insurance 2010
 
MHA Stalking Presentation for Clery Center 25th Anniversary Program
MHA Stalking Presentation for Clery Center 25th Anniversary ProgramMHA Stalking Presentation for Clery Center 25th Anniversary Program
MHA Stalking Presentation for Clery Center 25th Anniversary Program
 
Effects of Domestic Violence in Children
Effects of Domestic Violence in ChildrenEffects of Domestic Violence in Children
Effects of Domestic Violence in Children
 
risk management presentation
risk management presentationrisk management presentation
risk management presentation
 
Read 142 presentation 2 homeboy industries
Read 142 presentation 2 homeboy industriesRead 142 presentation 2 homeboy industries
Read 142 presentation 2 homeboy industries
 
IDRC14-ppp-Stanciugelu-PEP-session-2708
IDRC14-ppp-Stanciugelu-PEP-session-2708IDRC14-ppp-Stanciugelu-PEP-session-2708
IDRC14-ppp-Stanciugelu-PEP-session-2708
 
Improving outcomes for young people in Counties Manukau - Carl Crafar (Minist...
Improving outcomes for young people in Counties Manukau - Carl Crafar (Minist...Improving outcomes for young people in Counties Manukau - Carl Crafar (Minist...
Improving outcomes for young people in Counties Manukau - Carl Crafar (Minist...
 
Girls, Gangs, & Sex
Girls, Gangs, & SexGirls, Gangs, & Sex
Girls, Gangs, & Sex
 
Tips on mugging,extortion and kidnapping
Tips on mugging,extortion and kidnappingTips on mugging,extortion and kidnapping
Tips on mugging,extortion and kidnapping
 
Society for Risk Analysis On Transnational Risk & Terrorism
Society for Risk Analysis  On Transnational Risk & TerrorismSociety for Risk Analysis  On Transnational Risk & Terrorism
Society for Risk Analysis On Transnational Risk & Terrorism
 
e-Extortion Trends and Defense
e-Extortion Trends and Defensee-Extortion Trends and Defense
e-Extortion Trends and Defense
 
Hotels restaurants security
Hotels restaurants securityHotels restaurants security
Hotels restaurants security
 
Terrorism
TerrorismTerrorism
Terrorism
 
Risk Factors, Risk Assessments, and Collaboration to Prevent Domestic Violenc...
Risk Factors, Risk Assessments, and Collaboration to Prevent Domestic Violenc...Risk Factors, Risk Assessments, and Collaboration to Prevent Domestic Violenc...
Risk Factors, Risk Assessments, and Collaboration to Prevent Domestic Violenc...
 
Risk factor
Risk factorRisk factor
Risk factor
 
Herd-Level Management Factors and Culling Rates in Québec Dairy Herds (AABP, ...
Herd-Level Management Factors and Culling Rates in Québec Dairy Herds (AABP, ...Herd-Level Management Factors and Culling Rates in Québec Dairy Herds (AABP, ...
Herd-Level Management Factors and Culling Rates in Québec Dairy Herds (AABP, ...
 
Risk & Protective Factor Framework: Practical Applications to Problem Gambling
Risk & Protective Factor Framework: Practical Applications to Problem GamblingRisk & Protective Factor Framework: Practical Applications to Problem Gambling
Risk & Protective Factor Framework: Practical Applications to Problem Gambling
 
Alpha Phi Alpha Organizational Overview
Alpha Phi Alpha Organizational OverviewAlpha Phi Alpha Organizational Overview
Alpha Phi Alpha Organizational Overview
 
Terrorism Risk in 2015: Issues and Perspectives
Terrorism Risk in 2015: Issues and PerspectivesTerrorism Risk in 2015: Issues and Perspectives
Terrorism Risk in 2015: Issues and Perspectives
 

Ähnlich wie Negative emotion and health why do we keep stalking bears, when we only find scat in the woods

Etiology of schizophrenia. taniya thomas. msc 1st
Etiology of schizophrenia. taniya thomas. msc 1stEtiology of schizophrenia. taniya thomas. msc 1st
Etiology of schizophrenia. taniya thomas. msc 1stTaniya Thomas
 
ARTICLEDepersonalization, adversity, emotionality, and cop.docx
ARTICLEDepersonalization, adversity, emotionality, and cop.docxARTICLEDepersonalization, adversity, emotionality, and cop.docx
ARTICLEDepersonalization, adversity, emotionality, and cop.docxfestockton
 
ARTICLEDepersonalization, adversity, emotionality, and cop
ARTICLEDepersonalization, adversity, emotionality, and copARTICLEDepersonalization, adversity, emotionality, and cop
ARTICLEDepersonalization, adversity, emotionality, and copBetseyCalderon89
 
The neurobiology of everyday life final project
The neurobiology of everyday life  final projectThe neurobiology of everyday life  final project
The neurobiology of everyday life final projectAleksandra Włodarczyk
 
Lupus foundation educational program 2013
Lupus foundation educational program 2013Lupus foundation educational program 2013
Lupus foundation educational program 2013LupusNY
 
The type of illness that results from too much stress depends on a v.docx
The type of illness that results from too much stress depends on a v.docxThe type of illness that results from too much stress depends on a v.docx
The type of illness that results from too much stress depends on a v.docxwsusan1
 
2006hyperemotiontheory
2006hyperemotiontheory2006hyperemotiontheory
2006hyperemotiontheorywakashela005
 
Chronic Emotional Detachment, Disorders, and Treatment-Team B
Chronic Emotional Detachment, Disorders, and Treatment-Team BChronic Emotional Detachment, Disorders, and Treatment-Team B
Chronic Emotional Detachment, Disorders, and Treatment-Team BSarah M
 
Literature Review- Major Depressive Disorder
Literature Review- Major Depressive DisorderLiterature Review- Major Depressive Disorder
Literature Review- Major Depressive DisorderCooper Feild
 
Emotional Factor in the Etiology & Pathogeny of Cancer | Crimson Publishers
Emotional Factor in the Etiology & Pathogeny of Cancer | Crimson PublishersEmotional Factor in the Etiology & Pathogeny of Cancer | Crimson Publishers
Emotional Factor in the Etiology & Pathogeny of Cancer | Crimson PublishersCrimsonpublishersPPrs
 
Generalized anxiety disorder
Generalized anxiety disorder Generalized anxiety disorder
Generalized anxiety disorder Joysri Roy
 
Introductory Psychology: Stress
Introductory Psychology: StressIntroductory Psychology: Stress
Introductory Psychology: StressBrian Piper
 
Behavioral avoidance mediates the relationship betweenanxi.docx
Behavioral avoidance mediates the relationship betweenanxi.docxBehavioral avoidance mediates the relationship betweenanxi.docx
Behavioral avoidance mediates the relationship betweenanxi.docxikirkton
 
Changelings: Children and Psychic Trauma - Pediatric Travel Club - University...
Changelings: Children and Psychic Trauma - Pediatric Travel Club - University...Changelings: Children and Psychic Trauma - Pediatric Travel Club - University...
Changelings: Children and Psychic Trauma - Pediatric Travel Club - University...Université de Montréal
 
Research-Based Interventions Dissociative Identity Disorder1.docx
Research-Based Interventions Dissociative Identity Disorder1.docxResearch-Based Interventions Dissociative Identity Disorder1.docx
Research-Based Interventions Dissociative Identity Disorder1.docxronak56
 

Ähnlich wie Negative emotion and health why do we keep stalking bears, when we only find scat in the woods (20)

Etiology of schizophrenia. taniya thomas. msc 1st
Etiology of schizophrenia. taniya thomas. msc 1stEtiology of schizophrenia. taniya thomas. msc 1st
Etiology of schizophrenia. taniya thomas. msc 1st
 
ARTICLEDepersonalization, adversity, emotionality, and cop.docx
ARTICLEDepersonalization, adversity, emotionality, and cop.docxARTICLEDepersonalization, adversity, emotionality, and cop.docx
ARTICLEDepersonalization, adversity, emotionality, and cop.docx
 
ARTICLEDepersonalization, adversity, emotionality, and cop
ARTICLEDepersonalization, adversity, emotionality, and copARTICLEDepersonalization, adversity, emotionality, and cop
ARTICLEDepersonalization, adversity, emotionality, and cop
 
The neurobiology of everyday life final project
The neurobiology of everyday life  final projectThe neurobiology of everyday life  final project
The neurobiology of everyday life final project
 
Lupus foundation educational program 2013
Lupus foundation educational program 2013Lupus foundation educational program 2013
Lupus foundation educational program 2013
 
The type of illness that results from too much stress depends on a v.docx
The type of illness that results from too much stress depends on a v.docxThe type of illness that results from too much stress depends on a v.docx
The type of illness that results from too much stress depends on a v.docx
 
Anxiety And Depression In Family Practice Patients With
Anxiety And Depression In Family Practice Patients WithAnxiety And Depression In Family Practice Patients With
Anxiety And Depression In Family Practice Patients With
 
2006hyperemotiontheory
2006hyperemotiontheory2006hyperemotiontheory
2006hyperemotiontheory
 
Psychocardiology
PsychocardiologyPsychocardiology
Psychocardiology
 
Chronic Emotional Detachment, Disorders, and Treatment-Team B
Chronic Emotional Detachment, Disorders, and Treatment-Team BChronic Emotional Detachment, Disorders, and Treatment-Team B
Chronic Emotional Detachment, Disorders, and Treatment-Team B
 
STRESS & PERIODONTAL DISEASE.pptx by Dr. Neelam Das
STRESS & PERIODONTAL DISEASE.pptx  by Dr. Neelam DasSTRESS & PERIODONTAL DISEASE.pptx  by Dr. Neelam Das
STRESS & PERIODONTAL DISEASE.pptx by Dr. Neelam Das
 
Presentation(lokesh)
Presentation(lokesh)Presentation(lokesh)
Presentation(lokesh)
 
Literature Review- Major Depressive Disorder
Literature Review- Major Depressive DisorderLiterature Review- Major Depressive Disorder
Literature Review- Major Depressive Disorder
 
Emotional Factor in the Etiology & Pathogeny of Cancer | Crimson Publishers
Emotional Factor in the Etiology & Pathogeny of Cancer | Crimson PublishersEmotional Factor in the Etiology & Pathogeny of Cancer | Crimson Publishers
Emotional Factor in the Etiology & Pathogeny of Cancer | Crimson Publishers
 
Generalized anxiety disorder
Generalized anxiety disorder Generalized anxiety disorder
Generalized anxiety disorder
 
Introductory Psychology: Stress
Introductory Psychology: StressIntroductory Psychology: Stress
Introductory Psychology: Stress
 
Behavioral avoidance mediates the relationship betweenanxi.docx
Behavioral avoidance mediates the relationship betweenanxi.docxBehavioral avoidance mediates the relationship betweenanxi.docx
Behavioral avoidance mediates the relationship betweenanxi.docx
 
Changelings: Children and Psychic Trauma - Pediatric Travel Club - University...
Changelings: Children and Psychic Trauma - Pediatric Travel Club - University...Changelings: Children and Psychic Trauma - Pediatric Travel Club - University...
Changelings: Children and Psychic Trauma - Pediatric Travel Club - University...
 
MASAL 2016
MASAL 2016 MASAL 2016
MASAL 2016
 
Research-Based Interventions Dissociative Identity Disorder1.docx
Research-Based Interventions Dissociative Identity Disorder1.docxResearch-Based Interventions Dissociative Identity Disorder1.docx
Research-Based Interventions Dissociative Identity Disorder1.docx
 

Mehr von James Coyne

Are Most Positive Findings False? Confirmatory Bias in the Evaluation of Psyc...
Are Most Positive Findings False? Confirmatory Bias in the Evaluation of Psyc...Are Most Positive Findings False? Confirmatory Bias in the Evaluation of Psyc...
Are Most Positive Findings False? Confirmatory Bias in the Evaluation of Psyc...James Coyne
 
The scandal of the £5m PACE chronic fatigue trial
The scandal of the £5m PACE chronic fatigue trialThe scandal of the £5m PACE chronic fatigue trial
The scandal of the £5m PACE chronic fatigue trialJames Coyne
 
The scandal of the £5m pace trial for myalgic encephalomyelitis
The scandal of the £5m pace trial for myalgic encephalomyelitisThe scandal of the £5m pace trial for myalgic encephalomyelitis
The scandal of the £5m pace trial for myalgic encephalomyelitisJames Coyne
 
Edinburgh Skeptics in the Pub talk on PACE chronic fatigue trial
Edinburgh Skeptics in the Pub talk on PACE chronic fatigue trialEdinburgh Skeptics in the Pub talk on PACE chronic fatigue trial
Edinburgh Skeptics in the Pub talk on PACE chronic fatigue trialJames Coyne
 
Understanding Psychosis and Schizophrenia Royal Edinburgh
Understanding Psychosis and Schizophrenia Royal EdinburghUnderstanding Psychosis and Schizophrenia Royal Edinburgh
Understanding Psychosis and Schizophrenia Royal EdinburghJames Coyne
 
Responsibly epidemiological
Responsibly epidemiologicalResponsibly epidemiological
Responsibly epidemiologicalJames Coyne
 
Screening for depression in medical settings 2015 update
Screening for depression in medical settings 2015 updateScreening for depression in medical settings 2015 update
Screening for depression in medical settings 2015 updateJames Coyne
 
Maximizng the power of good scientific writing
Maximizng the power of good scientific writingMaximizng the power of good scientific writing
Maximizng the power of good scientific writingJames Coyne
 
Rethinking, rebuilding psychosocial care for cancer patients
Rethinking, rebuilding psychosocial care for cancer patientsRethinking, rebuilding psychosocial care for cancer patients
Rethinking, rebuilding psychosocial care for cancer patientsJames Coyne
 
Are most positive findings in psychology false or exaggerated? An activist's ...
Are most positive findings in psychology false or exaggerated? An activist's ...Are most positive findings in psychology false or exaggerated? An activist's ...
Are most positive findings in psychology false or exaggerated? An activist's ...James Coyne
 
Why screeing cancer patients for distress will increase disparities in psycho...
Why screeing cancer patients for distress will increase disparities in psycho...Why screeing cancer patients for distress will increase disparities in psycho...
Why screeing cancer patients for distress will increase disparities in psycho...James Coyne
 
“Evidenced based” behavioral medicine as bad as bad pharma
“Evidenced based” behavioral medicine as bad as bad pharma“Evidenced based” behavioral medicine as bad as bad pharma
“Evidenced based” behavioral medicine as bad as bad pharmaJames Coyne
 
Groningen defeating dissertation blues 2104
Groningen defeating dissertation blues 2104Groningen defeating dissertation blues 2104
Groningen defeating dissertation blues 2104James Coyne
 
The folly of believing positive findings from underpowered intervention studies
The folly of believing positive findings from underpowered intervention studiesThe folly of believing positive findings from underpowered intervention studies
The folly of believing positive findings from underpowered intervention studiesJames Coyne
 
Where’s the evidence that screening for distress benefits cancer patients?
Where’s the evidence that screening for distress benefits cancer patients?Where’s the evidence that screening for distress benefits cancer patients?
Where’s the evidence that screening for distress benefits cancer patients?James Coyne
 
Advice to junior researchers: High or low road to success?
Advice to junior researchers: High or low road to success?Advice to junior researchers: High or low road to success?
Advice to junior researchers: High or low road to success?James Coyne
 
Families, Family Interaction and Health 2009 NIMH Presention
Families, Family Interaction and Health 2009 NIMH PresentionFamilies, Family Interaction and Health 2009 NIMH Presention
Families, Family Interaction and Health 2009 NIMH PresentionJames Coyne
 
Anatomy of a meta analysis i like
Anatomy of a meta analysis i likeAnatomy of a meta analysis i like
Anatomy of a meta analysis i likeJames Coyne
 
Most Findings in Health Psychology are not Believable
Most Findings in Health Psychology are not BelievableMost Findings in Health Psychology are not Believable
Most Findings in Health Psychology are not BelievableJames Coyne
 
When cherished beliefs clash with evidence
When cherished beliefs clash with evidenceWhen cherished beliefs clash with evidence
When cherished beliefs clash with evidenceJames Coyne
 

Mehr von James Coyne (20)

Are Most Positive Findings False? Confirmatory Bias in the Evaluation of Psyc...
Are Most Positive Findings False? Confirmatory Bias in the Evaluation of Psyc...Are Most Positive Findings False? Confirmatory Bias in the Evaluation of Psyc...
Are Most Positive Findings False? Confirmatory Bias in the Evaluation of Psyc...
 
The scandal of the £5m PACE chronic fatigue trial
The scandal of the £5m PACE chronic fatigue trialThe scandal of the £5m PACE chronic fatigue trial
The scandal of the £5m PACE chronic fatigue trial
 
The scandal of the £5m pace trial for myalgic encephalomyelitis
The scandal of the £5m pace trial for myalgic encephalomyelitisThe scandal of the £5m pace trial for myalgic encephalomyelitis
The scandal of the £5m pace trial for myalgic encephalomyelitis
 
Edinburgh Skeptics in the Pub talk on PACE chronic fatigue trial
Edinburgh Skeptics in the Pub talk on PACE chronic fatigue trialEdinburgh Skeptics in the Pub talk on PACE chronic fatigue trial
Edinburgh Skeptics in the Pub talk on PACE chronic fatigue trial
 
Understanding Psychosis and Schizophrenia Royal Edinburgh
Understanding Psychosis and Schizophrenia Royal EdinburghUnderstanding Psychosis and Schizophrenia Royal Edinburgh
Understanding Psychosis and Schizophrenia Royal Edinburgh
 
Responsibly epidemiological
Responsibly epidemiologicalResponsibly epidemiological
Responsibly epidemiological
 
Screening for depression in medical settings 2015 update
Screening for depression in medical settings 2015 updateScreening for depression in medical settings 2015 update
Screening for depression in medical settings 2015 update
 
Maximizng the power of good scientific writing
Maximizng the power of good scientific writingMaximizng the power of good scientific writing
Maximizng the power of good scientific writing
 
Rethinking, rebuilding psychosocial care for cancer patients
Rethinking, rebuilding psychosocial care for cancer patientsRethinking, rebuilding psychosocial care for cancer patients
Rethinking, rebuilding psychosocial care for cancer patients
 
Are most positive findings in psychology false or exaggerated? An activist's ...
Are most positive findings in psychology false or exaggerated? An activist's ...Are most positive findings in psychology false or exaggerated? An activist's ...
Are most positive findings in psychology false or exaggerated? An activist's ...
 
Why screeing cancer patients for distress will increase disparities in psycho...
Why screeing cancer patients for distress will increase disparities in psycho...Why screeing cancer patients for distress will increase disparities in psycho...
Why screeing cancer patients for distress will increase disparities in psycho...
 
“Evidenced based” behavioral medicine as bad as bad pharma
“Evidenced based” behavioral medicine as bad as bad pharma“Evidenced based” behavioral medicine as bad as bad pharma
“Evidenced based” behavioral medicine as bad as bad pharma
 
Groningen defeating dissertation blues 2104
Groningen defeating dissertation blues 2104Groningen defeating dissertation blues 2104
Groningen defeating dissertation blues 2104
 
The folly of believing positive findings from underpowered intervention studies
The folly of believing positive findings from underpowered intervention studiesThe folly of believing positive findings from underpowered intervention studies
The folly of believing positive findings from underpowered intervention studies
 
Where’s the evidence that screening for distress benefits cancer patients?
Where’s the evidence that screening for distress benefits cancer patients?Where’s the evidence that screening for distress benefits cancer patients?
Where’s the evidence that screening for distress benefits cancer patients?
 
Advice to junior researchers: High or low road to success?
Advice to junior researchers: High or low road to success?Advice to junior researchers: High or low road to success?
Advice to junior researchers: High or low road to success?
 
Families, Family Interaction and Health 2009 NIMH Presention
Families, Family Interaction and Health 2009 NIMH PresentionFamilies, Family Interaction and Health 2009 NIMH Presention
Families, Family Interaction and Health 2009 NIMH Presention
 
Anatomy of a meta analysis i like
Anatomy of a meta analysis i likeAnatomy of a meta analysis i like
Anatomy of a meta analysis i like
 
Most Findings in Health Psychology are not Believable
Most Findings in Health Psychology are not BelievableMost Findings in Health Psychology are not Believable
Most Findings in Health Psychology are not Believable
 
When cherished beliefs clash with evidence
When cherished beliefs clash with evidenceWhen cherished beliefs clash with evidence
When cherished beliefs clash with evidence
 

Kürzlich hochgeladen

Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.
Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.
Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.raviapr7
 
Maximizing Impact_ Nonprofit Website Planning, Budgeting, and Design.pdf
Maximizing Impact_ Nonprofit Website Planning, Budgeting, and Design.pdfMaximizing Impact_ Nonprofit Website Planning, Budgeting, and Design.pdf
Maximizing Impact_ Nonprofit Website Planning, Budgeting, and Design.pdfTechSoup
 
Diploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdf
Diploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdfDiploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdf
Diploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdfMohonDas
 
How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17Celine George
 
What is the Future of QuickBooks DeskTop?
What is the Future of QuickBooks DeskTop?What is the Future of QuickBooks DeskTop?
What is the Future of QuickBooks DeskTop?TechSoup
 
The Stolen Bacillus by Herbert George Wells
The Stolen Bacillus by Herbert George WellsThe Stolen Bacillus by Herbert George Wells
The Stolen Bacillus by Herbert George WellsEugene Lysak
 
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptx
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptxUltra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptx
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptxDr. Asif Anas
 
Human-AI Co-Creation of Worked Examples for Programming Classes
Human-AI Co-Creation of Worked Examples for Programming ClassesHuman-AI Co-Creation of Worked Examples for Programming Classes
Human-AI Co-Creation of Worked Examples for Programming ClassesMohammad Hassany
 
How to Show Error_Warning Messages in Odoo 17
How to Show Error_Warning Messages in Odoo 17How to Show Error_Warning Messages in Odoo 17
How to Show Error_Warning Messages in Odoo 17Celine George
 
How to Add a many2many Relational Field in Odoo 17
How to Add a many2many Relational Field in Odoo 17How to Add a many2many Relational Field in Odoo 17
How to Add a many2many Relational Field in Odoo 17Celine George
 
CAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptx
CAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptxCAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptx
CAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptxSaurabhParmar42
 
Practical Research 1: Lesson 8 Writing the Thesis Statement.pptx
Practical Research 1: Lesson 8 Writing the Thesis Statement.pptxPractical Research 1: Lesson 8 Writing the Thesis Statement.pptx
Practical Research 1: Lesson 8 Writing the Thesis Statement.pptxKatherine Villaluna
 
CapTechU Doctoral Presentation -March 2024 slides.pptx
CapTechU Doctoral Presentation -March 2024 slides.pptxCapTechU Doctoral Presentation -March 2024 slides.pptx
CapTechU Doctoral Presentation -March 2024 slides.pptxCapitolTechU
 
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17Celine George
 
Education and training program in the hospital APR.pptx
Education and training program in the hospital APR.pptxEducation and training program in the hospital APR.pptx
Education and training program in the hospital APR.pptxraviapr7
 
M-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptx
M-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptxM-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptx
M-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptxDr. Santhosh Kumar. N
 
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptx
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptxPatterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptx
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptxMYDA ANGELICA SUAN
 
How to Add a New Field in Existing Kanban View in Odoo 17
How to Add a New Field in Existing Kanban View in Odoo 17How to Add a New Field in Existing Kanban View in Odoo 17
How to Add a New Field in Existing Kanban View in Odoo 17Celine George
 
2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptx
2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptx2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptx
2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptxSandy Millin
 

Kürzlich hochgeladen (20)

Personal Resilience in Project Management 2 - TV Edit 1a.pdf
Personal Resilience in Project Management 2 - TV Edit 1a.pdfPersonal Resilience in Project Management 2 - TV Edit 1a.pdf
Personal Resilience in Project Management 2 - TV Edit 1a.pdf
 
Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.
Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.
Drug Information Services- DIC and Sources.
 
Maximizing Impact_ Nonprofit Website Planning, Budgeting, and Design.pdf
Maximizing Impact_ Nonprofit Website Planning, Budgeting, and Design.pdfMaximizing Impact_ Nonprofit Website Planning, Budgeting, and Design.pdf
Maximizing Impact_ Nonprofit Website Planning, Budgeting, and Design.pdf
 
Diploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdf
Diploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdfDiploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdf
Diploma in Nursing Admission Test Question Solution 2023.pdf
 
How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17
How to Make a Field read-only in Odoo 17
 
What is the Future of QuickBooks DeskTop?
What is the Future of QuickBooks DeskTop?What is the Future of QuickBooks DeskTop?
What is the Future of QuickBooks DeskTop?
 
The Stolen Bacillus by Herbert George Wells
The Stolen Bacillus by Herbert George WellsThe Stolen Bacillus by Herbert George Wells
The Stolen Bacillus by Herbert George Wells
 
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptx
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptxUltra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptx
Ultra structure and life cycle of Plasmodium.pptx
 
Human-AI Co-Creation of Worked Examples for Programming Classes
Human-AI Co-Creation of Worked Examples for Programming ClassesHuman-AI Co-Creation of Worked Examples for Programming Classes
Human-AI Co-Creation of Worked Examples for Programming Classes
 
How to Show Error_Warning Messages in Odoo 17
How to Show Error_Warning Messages in Odoo 17How to Show Error_Warning Messages in Odoo 17
How to Show Error_Warning Messages in Odoo 17
 
How to Add a many2many Relational Field in Odoo 17
How to Add a many2many Relational Field in Odoo 17How to Add a many2many Relational Field in Odoo 17
How to Add a many2many Relational Field in Odoo 17
 
CAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptx
CAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptxCAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptx
CAULIFLOWER BREEDING 1 Parmar pptx
 
Practical Research 1: Lesson 8 Writing the Thesis Statement.pptx
Practical Research 1: Lesson 8 Writing the Thesis Statement.pptxPractical Research 1: Lesson 8 Writing the Thesis Statement.pptx
Practical Research 1: Lesson 8 Writing the Thesis Statement.pptx
 
CapTechU Doctoral Presentation -March 2024 slides.pptx
CapTechU Doctoral Presentation -March 2024 slides.pptxCapTechU Doctoral Presentation -March 2024 slides.pptx
CapTechU Doctoral Presentation -March 2024 slides.pptx
 
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17
How to Use api.constrains ( ) in Odoo 17
 
Education and training program in the hospital APR.pptx
Education and training program in the hospital APR.pptxEducation and training program in the hospital APR.pptx
Education and training program in the hospital APR.pptx
 
M-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptx
M-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptxM-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptx
M-2- General Reactions of amino acids.pptx
 
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptx
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptxPatterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptx
Patterns of Written Texts Across Disciplines.pptx
 
How to Add a New Field in Existing Kanban View in Odoo 17
How to Add a New Field in Existing Kanban View in Odoo 17How to Add a New Field in Existing Kanban View in Odoo 17
How to Add a New Field in Existing Kanban View in Odoo 17
 
2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptx
2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptx2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptx
2024.03.23 What do successful readers do - Sandy Millin for PARK.pptx
 

Negative emotion and health why do we keep stalking bears, when we only find scat in the woods

  • 1. Why do we keep stalking bears, when we only find scat in the woods? Hans Ormel’s contribution to psychosomatic scatology James C. Coyne, PhD Professor Emeritus, University of Pennsylvania Professor, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen (UMCG), The Netherlands
  • 2. “Discovery” -> Disappointment -> Decline. Recurring cycles of premature, exaggerated, and simply false “discoveries” concerning negative emotion and health. Hans Ormel’s work can be used to set a higher threshold for future declarations of “discoveries.”
  • 4. John Snow and the Broad Street Pump Handle
  • 5. For over half a century, researchers in psychosomatic medicine have stalked an elusive trophy bear, a modifiable connection between negative emotion and morbidity and mortality. Claims of finding one have attract considerable attention again and again, only to lead to embarrassing disconfirmations.
  • 6. Depressive symptoms linked to Death, dementia, coronary artery disease, cancer, asthma, diabetes, Parkinson’s disease, COPD, headaches, insomnia, acne, health problems after pregnancy, lower back pain, anorgasmia, premature ejaculation, impotence, hypertension, HIV viral load, poor glycemic control, constipation, diarrhea, nausea, chronic pelvic pain, incontinence, …and flatulence.
  • 9. Just as many oncologists now view pain as a symptom to be treated, they should also consider depression a symptom to be treated to improve quality of—and possibly extend—life.
  • 10. The National Heart Lung and Blood Institute ENRICH-D trial was an expensive attempt to show we could save cardiac patients from re- infarction and death by improving the outcome of their depression. Clinical depression was the identified bear.
  • 11. But in hindsight, ENRICH-D does not seem to have been on the trail of a bear. Maybe was just making too much of scat in the woods. Bear Scat
  • 12. ENRICH-D presumed clinical depression was the long sought bear-modifiable risk factor. Target may only have been scat on the trail—uniformative risk marker. Shooting scat does not reduce mortality.
  • 15. Coyne JC, van Sonderen E: The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) is dead, but like Elvis, there will still be citings. Journal of Psychosomatic Research. 73:77-78.
  • 16. Meehl (1990) applied “crud factor” to the broader tendency of self-reported negative factors to be correlated in ways that cannot readily be unambiguously differentiated.
  • 17. Ketterer MW, Denollet J, Goldberg AD, McCullough PA, John S, Farha AJ, et al. The big mush: psychometric measures are confounded and non- independent in their association with age at initial diagnosis of Ischaemic Coronary Heart Disease. J Cardiovasc Risk 2002; 9(1): 41-48.
  • 18. Lesperance and Frasure-Smith Denollet et al. added a new term – the distressed personality (Type D) – to a field congested with related concepts including type A personality, anger and hostility, psychological stress, vital exhaustion, major depression, depressive symptoms, and social isolation. Each of these concepts enjoyed a period of prime time exposure following publication of one or more epidemiological reports linking it to mortality in patients with CHD and then declined in popularity.…
  • 19. John Ioannidis Most “discoveries” in biomedical literature are premature, exaggerated, or simply false. Apparent discoveries are created and perpetuated by a combination of confirmatory bias, flexible rules of design, data analysis and reporting, and significance chasing. Beware of unexpected large findings from small samples.
  • 20. The psychological sciences may be particularly susceptible because many of the psychological variables and outcomes measured and analyzed are often convoluted, complex, and highly correlated. There is large flexibility in definitions, uses of cut- offs, modeling, and statistical handling of the data, hence large room for exploratory analyses.
  • 21. John Ioannidis (2012) Obliged replication: Proponents of dominant view are so strong in controlling the publication venues that they can largely select and mold the results, wording, and interpretation of studies eventually published.
  • 23. John MacLeod and George Davey Smith Challenge of distinguishing causal influence of negative affect from other negative environmental and physical health variables.  High likelihood of noncausal relationships generated by confounding between self-reported negative affect and physical health outcomes.  Residual confounding often impossible to rule out.  Plausible biological mechanism can almost always be cited, so not a good way of excluding spurious findings.
  • 24. Hans Ormel -- Neuroticism: a non- informative marker of vulnerability Broad set of items describing anxiety, insecurity, irritability, anger, hostility, worry, depression, frustration, self-consciousness, emotionality, sensitivity to criticism, stress reactivity, and impulsiveness.
  • 25. Hans Ormel -- Neuroticism: a non- informative marker of vulnerability Prospective studies of associations of neuroticism with mental health outcomes are basically futile, and largely tautological since scores on any characteristic with substantial within-subject stability will predict, by definition, that characteristic and related variables at later points in time.
  • 26. Hans Ormel What about hard biomedical outcomes…like death? Need to rule out antecedent and concurrent associations with known risk factors. Persons with physical conditions register their malaise on measures of negative emotion.
  • 27. “Negative emotion predicts survival” Another unexpected large effect from small study? Flexible rules of collecting, analyzing interpreting data? Spurious association convincingly ruled out? Only that negative emotion? Risk factor or uninformative risk indicator?
  • 28. What’s wrong with continuing to stalk the bear?  Continued embarrassment, decreased credibility  Squandering of research and clinical resources  Denigrating of genuine accomplishments of behavioral medicine in terms of reducing behavioral risk factors  AvaIIable distorted by obliged replication  Bad message to junior scientists