In partnership with National Community Renaissance, the Inland Valleys Association of Realtors® hosted a luncheon with special guest speaker and author Joel Kotkin. This invitation only, luncheon focused on critical housing issues impacting California and the Inland Empire.

1. HOUSING THE FUTURE
June 15, 2017
Described by the New York Times as “America’s
uber-geographer,” Joel Kotkin is an internationally-
recognized authority on global, economic, political
and social trends. His newest book, The Human
City: Urbanism for the Rest of Us, was published by
Agate in April, 2016.
Mr. Kotkin is the Presidential Fellow in Urban
Futures at Chapman University in Orange,
California and Executive Director of the Houston-
based Center for Opportunity Urbanism
(opportunityurbanism.org).
He is Executive Editor of the widely read website
www.newgeography.com and writes the weekly
“New Geographer” column for Forbes.com. He
serves on the editorial board of the Orange County
Register and writes a weekly column for that paper,
and is a regular contributor to the Daily Beast and
Real Clear Politics.
SPONSORED BY
joelkotkin.com
In partnership with National Community Renaissance, the
Inland Valleys Association of Realtors® hosted a luncheon
with special guest speaker and author Joel Kotkin. This
invitation only, luncheon focused on critical housing
issues impacting California and the Inland Empire.
When: Thursday, June 15, 2017, 11:30am – 1:30pm
Where: The Mission Inn – Galleria Room, 3649 Mission
Inn Avenue, Riverside, CA 92501
FEATURING: JOEL KOTKIN

2. California’s Fading Dream: Losing Track of the Purpose of Cities
Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Presidential Fellow in Urban
Futures, Chapman University and Executive Director,
Center for Opportunity
IVAR & National CORE Event
June 15, 2017 -- Riverside, CA
joelkotkin.com 2

3. What is a City for?
“a city comes into being for the sake of life, but exists for
the sake of living well.” ---Aristotle
joelkotkin.com 3

4. 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Medieval Town Pre-Industrial - Early
19th Century
Industrial - Mid 19th
Century
Industrial cities boosted crowding dramatically
Urban Land Use 1400-1850 Square meters/Person
joelkotkin.com 4

5. The British Alternative:
“Town and country must be married and out of
this joyous union will spring a new hope, a
new life, a new civilization.”
Ebenezer Howard
The Garden City
joelkotkin.com 5

6. 0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2010
PopulationperSquareMile(Urban)
New York
Los Angeles
PARIS, LONDON, NEW YORK & LOS ANGELES
Estimated from statistical agency sources and historic maps.
Paris
London
Built-Up Urban Area Densities: 1800-2010
joelkotkin.com 6

7. The US Experience: More Dispersion, More Denial by Planners,
Pundits and some developers
“We’ve reached the limits of suburban
development .People are beginning to
vote with their feet and come back to
the central cities.”
HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan Feb
2011
joelkotkin.com 7

8. Urban Core:
CBD
0.8%
Urban Core:
Inner Ring…
Earlier Suburbs
29.5%
Later Suburbs
45.8%
Exurbs
14.5%
52 MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS (2010 to 2011-2015)
Growth Share by City Sector: Early 2010s
Derived from 2010 Census, American Community Survey 2011-2015 & City Sector Model
joelkotkin.com 8

9. Suburbs Dominate Job Growth
joelkotkin.com 9

10. PRESENT RESIDENCE AND PREFERRED IN 5 YEARS
Source: http://www.bain.com/Images/BAIN_REPORT_Spatial_economics.pdf
Living Preferences: Today and in 5 Years
joelkotkin.com 10

11. 18,600
-64,600
-402,300
586,600
359,300
-600,000
-400,000
-200,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
Urban Core: CBD Urban Core: Inner
Ring
Earlier Suburb Later Suburb Exurb
EmploymentGrowth
Derived from County Business Patterns data & City Sector Model
6 MAJOR CALIFORNIA MSA’S
Database excludes most
government employment
Employment Growth by Sector: 2000-2014
joelkotkin.com 11

12. US Population by Age: 2013
joelkotkin.com 12

13. 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Silent Generation Baby Boomer Generation Generation X Millenial Generation
SHARE OF NATIONAL HOUSEHOLD WEALTH
Derived from Deloitte Center for Financial Services
Wealth by Generation: 2015-2030
joelkotkin.com 13

14. 1980 – 2014
Share of 18-34 Year Olds Living with Parents
joelkotkin.com 14

15. 0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Los Angeles Orange Riverside San Bernardino Ventura
LA-RIVERSIDE CSA COUNTIES
US Census Bureau & 2010-2014 American Community Survey data
Change in 20-29 Population: 2000-2014
joelkotkin.com 15

16. 1,100
7,800
87,800
15,200
26,100
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Urban Core:
CBD
Urban Core:
Inner Ring
Earlier Suburb Later Suburb Exurb
PopulationGrowth
Derived from Census Bureau data & City Sector Model 2015 Revision
LOS ANGELES LONG BEACH CSA: 2010-2013
25-34 Growth by Sector
joelkotkin.com 16

17. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Country
Small City
Suburb
Big City
Country
Small City
Suburb
Big City
Millenials
Older Generations
Source: Frank N. Magid Associates
COMPARED TO OLDER GENERATIONS
Current
Residence
IdealPlace
toLive
Millennial Life Style Choices
joelkotkin.com 17

18. 84
81
80
86
89
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
Total population
Millennials
Gen X
Boomers
Silent Gen
Source: Merrill Lynch – Age Wave, 2014Base Age 21+
AGREEING THAT HOME OWNERSHIP AN IMPORTANT PART
Survey: American Dream
joelkotkin.com 18

19. BY GENERATION: 2011
Expecting to Marry & Have Kids
joelkotkin.com 19

20. Projected national number of 20-27 and 28-35 population cohorts, 2014 to 2060
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
2052
2054
2056
2058
2060
20-27
28-35
Source: Business Insider/Andy Kiersz, data from US Census Bureau
joelkotkin.com 20

21. % living in urban neighborhoods, by age group
30%
25%
20%
15%
18-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
2000
2014
An aging population also boosts the suburbs
joelkotkin.com 21

22. Detached
House
81%
Townhouse
8%
Multi-Unit
7%
Other
4%
2014-2015 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
From National Association of Realtors, 2015
House Purchases: Under Age 35
joelkotkin.com 22

23. -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Los Angeles MSA
New York MSA
Chicago MSA
San Diego MSA
San Francisco MSA
San Jose MSA
Sacramento MSA
Riverside San Bernardino MSA
Houston MSA
Dallas-Fort Worth MSA
Austin MSA
California
United States
Outside California MSAs
California MSAs
Derived from Census Bureau data
SELECTED METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2000-2015
Change in Child Population (5-14)
joelkotkin.com 23

24. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Georgia
Hawaii
Mississippi
Nevada
New Mexico
Arizona
Louisiana
New York
Florida
California
UNITED STATES
Housing Cost Adjusted Poverty Rate
STATES: 2015
Census Bureau data
Highest Housing Adjusted Poverty Rates
joelkotkin.com 24

25. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Bakersfield
Modesto
Stockton
Fresno
#42 San Jose, CA
#43 Boston, MA-NH
#44 Las Vegas, NV
#45 Virginia Beach-Norfolk, VA-…
#46 Orlando, FL
#47 San Francisco, CA
#48 Sacramento, CA
#49 Riverside-San Bernardino,…
#50 San Diego, CA
#51 New York, NY-NJ-PA
#52 Miami, FL
#53 Los Angeles, CA
% of Households
Other Large CA MSAs
Major CA MSAs
Other Major MSAs
Housing Cost Burdened Households
12 WORST MAJOR MSAS & OTHER LARGE CA MSAS
Source: American Community Survey
joelkotkin.com 25

26. Grand Delusions won’t restore Upward Mobility in California : We Need to
Change the Debate
California Policies
• Green Jobs and forced density
• High-Speed Rail and transit
• Social engineering away from families and
middle class housing and jobs
joelkotkin.com 26

27. 0 1 2 3 4
United States
Texas
California
Los Angeles
San Francisco
Riverside-San Bernardino
San Diego
Sacramento
San Jose
Permit Rate per 1,000 Population
Multi Family
Single Family (Detached)
CALIFORNIA & THE US: 2011-2015: DETACHED & MULTI-FAMILY
Residential Building Permits
joelkotkin.com 27

28. 0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2014
MarketShare
Market Share for Indicated Years Only
Transit
Work at Home
TRANSIT & WORK AT HOME SHARE: 1980-2014
Derived Census Bureau data
Los Angeles CSA Commuting
joelkotkin.com 28

29. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Core Inner Ring Second Ring Outer Ring
MetricTons
AUSTRALIA 5 LARGE CAPITAL URBAN AREAS
Housing Form in Australia and Its Impact on Greenhouse Gas Emissions
CO2 Emissions per Capita: By Sector
joelkotkin.com 29

30. EMISSION REDUCTION GOALS & OUT-MIGRANT INCREASE
California Air Resources Board and David Friedman
California Emissions: Comparisons
joelkotkin.com 30

31. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
ComparedtoDetached(5)
Construction Cost/Square Foot Compared to Detached (5 per Acre)
SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
Construction Cost by House Type
Derived from FBI Statistics: 2013, Major metropolitan areas (average).
joelkotkin.com 31

32. Future of Suburbia
• Suburbia about to gain as
minorities and millennials head
there
• Future suburbs will develop
more amenities and be more
self-sufficient
• The diverse, more interesting
suburbs are best positioned
joelkotkin.com 32

33. The Shift in retail will open new opportunities
joelkotkin.com 33

34. The Future of Retail
joelkotkin.com 34

35. Key Solutions and Recommendations
• Reform regulatory rules to be friendly for middle class and family
housing
• More emphasis on dispersed and home based work patterns
• Transportation solutions should be 21st Century variety, not yet
another failed attempt to recreate the 19th
• Look to shift redundant office space to housing and develop
responsible housing, flexible workplaces on periphery
joelkotkin.com 35

36. • After all is said and done, he --- the citizen --- is really
the city. The city is going wherever he goes. “
Frank Lloyd Wright, The Living City, (1958)
joelkotkin.com 36

37. Questions and Comments
joelkotkin.com 37