1. Conproxy
in
M
iddle
Chinacleans up
om
ult
sion
Savings ratefalls in China
d
Chi
cleans BoP
crises
in someemergers
US and EUtrade treaty
Russia
decays
Post-Kyoto
clim
ate
accord
Arctic
resources
open
up
Regionalhegemonsdominate Europeanfiscal union
3
print
kicks
Protests
and
crackdown
in
China
Russianrecession
Anew
Washington
consensus
China
joinsTPPand
IPagreement
Containedproxy warsin Middle East
Shalerevolutioncrosses theAtlantic
UK
stays
in
the
EU
EU
growth'good enough'
EM
takeoversof Westernmultinationals
Negotiatedsolution tothe Syrian crisis
Savingsrate
fallsin
China
Startof
Europe's
recovery
S
omic
nce
Euro-area
stagnation
TPP
con
China
gets
a
carrier
Contained
proxywars
inMiddleEast
Shale
revolution
crossesthe
Atlantic
Iran-USrapprochement
USpower
softens
EM
takeovers
ofW
estern
m
ultinationals
Rio
rises
Digital
havesand
have
nots
ngksoff
Digitaldiffusion
US-Chinabipolarity
Savings ratefalls in China
Star
Euro
recov
Post-Kyoto
clim
ate
accord
European
fiscalunion
US
achieves
energy
self-sufficiency
Protests
and
crackdown
in
China
End
of thecommoditysupercycle
African
growth
slipsback
Crum
bling
BRIC(S)
Anew
Washington
consensus
BoPcrises
in
som
e
em
ergers
d EU
eaty
Russia
decays
US
econom
ic
resilience
Arctic
resources
open
up
European
fiscalunion
Indialiberaliseseconomy
US
achieves
energy
self-sufficiency
China
banking
crisis
Contained
proxywars
in
M
iddle
East
Shalerevolutioncrosses theAtlantic
M
igration
restricted
EUgrowth
'good
eno
EM
takeovers
ofW
estern
m
ultinationals
Negotiated
solution
to
the
Syrian
crisis
Savingsrate
fallsin
China
Startof
Europe's
recovery
Euro-area
stagnation
African
growth
slipsback
US
and
EU
trade
treaty
China
gets
a
carrier
Contained
proxywars
in
M
iddle
East
Shale
revolution
crossesthe
Atlantic
TPPconcluded
US
power
softens
EM
takeovers
ofW
estern
m
ultinationals
Digital
havesand
have
nots
Digitaldiffusion
Post-Kyotoclimate accord
Negotiate
solutio
the
Sy
Savings ratefalls in China
Startof
Europe's
recovery
Arc
resou
open
Regional
hegem
ons
dom
inate
European
fiscalunion
M
igration
restricted
US
achieves
energy
self-sufficiency
End
of thecommoditysupercycle
African
growth
slipsback
Riorises
Anew
Washington
consensus
BoPcrises
in
som
e
em
erg
aays
Failure
of
enom
ics
Arctic
resources
open
up
Regionalhegemonsdominate
European
fiscalunion
U
ac
e
self-
Protests
and
downna
Anew
Washington
consensus
a
Buildingblocs of growth
A newWashingtonconsensus
The
end ofglobalisationas we know it
Digitaldiffusion
GLOBAL SCENARIOS
Strategic Resilience and Foresight

2. Global Scenarios
Beyond trend-line analysis
It is clear that politically driven choices and limitations can alter the trajectory of global economic growth and sustainable
development. Our structured approach to scenario analysis recognises this array of plausible contingencies and outcomes.
We go beyond trend-line forecasts to account for the societal, political and security uncertainties that can alter established
trends. Our process focuses on the most significant and uncertain drivers of change, and incorporates insights from our
bespoke work and our 1,400-strong global network of experts via focus groups, critiquing and stress-testing.
Oxford Analytica is a global analysis and advisory firm which draws on a worldwide network of experts to advise its
clients on their strategy and performance. Our insights and judgements on global issues enable our clients to succeed
in a world where the nexus of politics and economics, state and business is critical.

3. These ten-year scenarios for the global
political economy demonstrate Oxford
Analytica’s approach to scenario analysis:
The end of globalisation as we know it
Economic growth lags behind expectations
and the sources of global power evaporate.
Digital diffusion
In a world of diffuse global power, trade
and diplomacy consolidate around regions
but a global virtual network thrives.
A new Washington consensus
The United States emerges as the
preponderant power, but only by default.
Building blocs of growth
Unprecedented climatic volatility creates
extraordinary cost burdens – but also
opens up new avenues of global
cooperation.
It is tempting to regard past performance as a
predictor of future outcomes. Yet the extraordinary
developments of the last decade suggest the
opposite. If there is one thing we know with
certainty, it is that the world in ten years will bear
little resemblance to the one in which we live today.
Oxford Analytica regards scenario analysis as a cornerstone
of strategic planning and risk management. By considering
alternate futures and how they might be realised, we help
our clients challenge underlying assumptions, develop
more resilient strategies and position themselves to thrive
in a volatile world.
What we can we do for you
Oxford Analytica works closely with clients to identify how
they can most effectively use scenarios to improve strategy
and performance. Among our services are:
__ scenario frameworks and narratives based on your
regions and sectors of interest
__ econometric modelling and stress testing
__ interactive scenario analysis training or facilitation
workshops
__ market and portfolio analysis for asset managers
__ strategic benchmarking – uncovering the hidden
assumptions behind your organisation’s long-term
planning.
Contact us to begin the discussion:
scenarios@oxford-analytica.com
Global Scenarios
Strategic resilience and foresight
Our Global Scenarios can be
adapted for your business or created
on a bespoke basis around your
focal question or strategy.
oxan.to/scenarios

4. Extreme
weakness in
Europe and Japan
Doha round
collapses again
Diplomatic
stalemate
over Syria
Greece
gets
third bailout
Surging
populism
Trade
disputes
accelerate
worldwide
Entrenched
diversity in
economic models
Growth
divergence
between EMs
Diplomatic
confrontation
over Iran
Democratic
governments
under strain
Restrictions
on immigration
increased
Weakened
demand
in China
Promotion
of national
champions
Chinese
banking crisis
Illiberal
governments
in Europe
Oil price
volatility
EM
investment
flows reverse
Low-level
Middle East
proxy conflict
The
end of
globalisation
as we know it
Globalisation
slows
OUTCOMETIMELINE10YEARS8YEARS6YEARS4YEARS2YEARS
US
monetary
tightening
mismanaged
The end of globalisation as we know it
In a world in which economic growth is below expectations and
sources of global power evaporate, trade disputes accelerate
and populism surges.
The re-collapse of the Doha Round further marginalises the World Trade
Organisation, reducing its ability to function as an effective venue for
dispute resolution. Investment flows reverse from emerging markets
to North America, the European and Japanese economies remain
extremely weak and economic turmoil besets China in the form of a
banking crisis, followed by a sharp drop in demand.
These outcomes drive many major economies to engage
in protectionism, furthering a vicious cycle of underlying
low growth. Performance diverges most sharply among
emerging markets. This leads to entrenched diversity in
economic models, with some states increasingly relying
on national champions, while others form trade blocs
of the willing. Populism surges worldwide, straining
representative governments, particularly in Europe.
Meanwhile, an increasingly unstable Middle East
locks major powers in a persistent diplomatic
impasse and keeps oil prices volatile.
Global Scenario One

5. Greater
tech and
energy sustainability
China
cleans up
China gets
a carrier
India
liberalises
economy
China
joins TPP and
IP agreement
Contained
Middle East
Shale
revolution
crosses the
Atlantic
BoP
crises
in some
emergers
US and EU
trade treaty
UK stays
in the EU
Central
banks lead
economic
coordination
EU
growth
good enough
Russia
decays
Web
of regional
trade agreements
US
power
softens
EM
takeovers
of Western
multinationals
Rio
rises
Digital
haves and
have nots
3D
printing
kicks off
Digital
diffusion
US
immigration
reform
OUTCOMETIMELINE10YEARS8YEARS6YEARS4YEARS2YEARS
Digital diffusion
In a world of diffuse global power, trade and diplomacy consolidate
around regions but a vibrant virtual network spans the globe.
Technological innovations and energy sustainability promote robust
– albeit uneven – growth, with prosperity defined by the digital
haves and have-nots.
Regional trade agreements and the globalisation of unconventional
energy revitalise growth in the West, even as QE tapering sparks
balance of payments crises in some emerging markets. Central
banks are swift to react and coordinate, enabling the emergers to
rise once again, led by Brazil and India.
3D manufacturing becomes scalable, boosting productivity
and accelerating in-sourcing. North America achieves
energy self-sufficiency, and the United States dials
back its military footprint while expanding its soft
power presence.
Meanwhile, Beijing’s intensifying engagement
on the global stage prompts a clean-up of its
politics and its environment.
High-profile emerging market takeovers of
Western multinationals signpost a more
diverse economic balance of power.
Global Scenario Two

6. Two-tier
technology
Dependence
on US / ME
energy exports
Migration
restricted
US
achieves
energy
self-sufficiency
Saudi
succession
struggle
South Asia /
SE Asia
crisis
US
economic
resilience
Failure of
Abenomics
Euro-area
stagnation
Protests
and
crackdown
in China
End
of the
commodity
supercycle
African
growth
slips back
Russian
recession
Degradation
of global
governance
China
fraught
leadership
Agricultural
protectionism
and
self-sufficiency
Aspiring
middle class
fails to emerge
Supply
chains
contract
Crumbling
BRIC(S)
A new
Washington
consensus
China
banking crisis
OUTCOMETIMELINE10YEARS8YEARS6YEARS4YEARS2YEARS
A new Washington consensus
In this low-growth world, the United States emerges as the
preponderant power, but only by default: Europe is mired
in stagnation, China suffers severe financial and political
stresses, and nearly all other large emerging markets fail to
fulfil their promise.
A crumbling China has devastating effects for lower-income
economies in Africa and South-east Asia, whose prospects dim
as global supply chains shrink and commodity demand slides.
The aspiring global middle class fails to emerge: while
Beijing and other global cities are rocked by protests,
some societies manage to contain potential revolutions
by shifting back to basics – agricultural sustainability
and self-sufficiency. North America remains an
island of economic resilience, but the United
States has little interest in forging meaningful
global governance with such weak and
problematic allies.
Pockets of digital dynamism remain,
but in this profoundly unequal world,
technology has failed to spur social
mobility or political empowerment.
Global Scenario Three

7. US-China
bipolarity
China
and Taiwan:
one country,
two systems
Chinese
domestic
demand
gains momentum
Negotiated
solution to
the Syrian crisis
Russia
re-engages
with the
world community
TPP
concluded
GCC
reforms
deferred
Savings rate
falls in China
Start of
Europe's
recovery
Tighter
multilateral
internet
regimes
US-EU
Free Trade
Agreement
signed
Democrats
retain
White House
Post-Kyoto
climate accord
Arctic
resources
open up
Regional
hegemons
dominate
European
fiscal union
Shale gas
goes global
Europe
facilitates
skilled labour
migration
Iran-US
rapprochement
Building
blocs of growth
Natural
disasters
create
unprecedented
cost burdens
OUTCOMETIMELINE10YEARS8YEARS6YEARS4YEARS2YEARS
Building blocs of growth
Unprecedented climatic volatility creates extraordinary cost
burdens – but also opens up new avenues of global consensus and
cooperation. Decision-making is led by the United States, China
and a re-emergent European Union, which achieves fiscal union
by the early 2020s.
This world is buffeted by an array of climate-related disasters, pushing
savings rates down in China, creating supply chain disruptions
across major economies, and initially creating a higher commodity
price environment.
Yet the shared threat and rising costs of environmental
calamities also create space for greater global
convergence, paving the way for a negotiated
solution to the Syrian crisis, and eventually towards
rapprochement between the United States and Iran.
Thanks partly to the globalisation of unconventional
gas and the opening of Arctic resources, this is
ultimately a robust growth trajectory for most
major markets.
However, with Washington shifting
strategic focus towards Asia, the United
States and China ultimately face off
in a stable but highly competitive
regional balancing of economic
and geopolitical power.
Global Scenario Four

8. Case studies
A European asset management firm
Macro diligence scenarios
By integrating qualitative scenario
methodologies, econometric
modelling and stress testing, we
provided our client with ten-year
perspectives on the global political
economy. The following year, we
updated the scenarios based on
new data and reconsidered the
impact of additional contingencies.
Our approach allowed the client to calibrate its
investment strategy in key sectors of interest – and
uncover long-term growth opportunities.
Oxford Analytica has carried out customised scenario engagements for clients from a range
of sectors, including natural resources, financial services, and consumer goods – as well as for
international institutions.
A banking and financial services firm
Scenario stress testing
Alongside our client’s risk group,
we facilitated the development
of five adverse scenarios for the
global economy and assisted
in subsequent stress testing
exercises.
Our work is forming the basis for
more complex projections, which
the bank will use during upcoming
regulatory reviews.
International organisations
Scenario analysis training
We have trained teams of diplomats
and analysts at several international
organisations. The interactive
workshops are customised to focus
on the institutional and programmatic
contexts of the clients.
Participants integrate scenario
analysis into their work in
crisis management and conflict
response throughout the Middle East, sub-Saharan
Africa and other regions.
Allianz Global Investors
Scenario-driven thought leadership
We collaborated with the asset
management arm of Allianz to
explore four scenarios for the
development of the private pension
market in China.
The client included our analysis
in its Market Trends and Surveys
working paper series, which
is designed to encourage
organisations to consider alternative strategies and
contingency plans.
SCENARIO
ANALYSIS TRAINING
SCENARIO-DRIVEN
THOUGHT LEADERSHIP
MACRO DILIGENCE SCENARIOS
FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
SCENARIO
STRESS TESTING
Adding value for our clients
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