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India Pulses and Grains
Association (IPGA)
The Pulses Conclave 2014
February 19-21. Goa.
Global Agriculture Market Drivers and
Outlook 2014
G. Chandrashekhar

The Hindu Business Line
Global Agri-markets . . . so far
• After 3 years of adverse weathereffects, markets turned benign in 2013

• Normal weather; rebound in major crops
output – rice, wheat, corn, oilcrops, cotton
• World agri markets in modest surplus
• Speculative capital stayed in the sidelines
• Liquidity-driven commodity boom ‘tapering’
What to expect in 2014?
• Markets are looking generally bearish!!!!
• Decent harvests, replenished stocks are
key drivers across grains & oilseeds in 2014
• High prices in 2010-2012 incentivized
production expansion, rationed demand;
• Softer prices in H2 2013 will encourage
stock building;
Outlook for 2014
• Corn: market looking bearish due to
over-supplies; US plantings may surprise
to the upside; if weather holds, further build
up in stocks possible;

• Wheat: prices will follow corn lower;
especially post-July harvests; but
winterkill issues and Argentina’s lower
exports can tighten US stocks;
Outlook 2014
• Cotton: constructive short-term due to
tight ex-China supplies and stronger
demand for US exports;
• Sugar: bearish short-term due to higher
than expected surplus for the current
season; needs to be worked off; prices
may turn bullish from late 2014 on poor
supply incentive; tiny deficit in 2014-15
Outlook 2014
• Soybean: tighter fundamentals than grains;
SouthAm crop + potentially higher US
plantings in spring will see prices ease gently
over 2014-15; but strong Chinese demand and
tight US stocks remain supportive factors;
• Soyoil: changes in US biofuel mandate have
created a bearish market; large soy crush
program means more oil;
• Soymeal: supplies should improve, depending
on Argentina, easing price pressure
In sum . . . .
• 2014 expect benign global weather
(although we may be only one El Nino away
from a disaster)
• US Fed ‘Tapering’ to reduce liquidity; US
dollar to get stronger; Geopolitical situation
not volatile, so crude to remain soft;
• Limited price appreciation potential means
speculative capital will stay away;
Softer prices now ….
may impact 2015
• FAO Food Price Index fell in January
for first time in 3 months on lower
prices of cereals, sugar, oils, meat;
• Lower prices stimulating demand;
Asian demand rising;
• But, softer prices may impact
plantings and production in 2015
World Market for Pulses
• 2013-14 global pulses output ~ 70 million
tons (up 4%);
• Field Pea: record 11.2 ml.t (up
10%), mainly dry green pea; growers
responded to 2012-13 high prices; yellow
pea up too
• Chickpea: 13 ml.t (up from 11.1 ml.t)
• Dry bean 22.6 ml.t.
• Trade in field pea and dry bean 4.5 ml.t
each; chickpea 2 ml.t.
World Pulses Trade
• Exporters target South Asia - India and
neighbours; Canada, USA, Australia, Myanmar

• China emerging as major importer of
peas after India; food use growing;
• As world agri-prices turn softer, will
pulses defy gravity?
India – the mover and shaker
• Record harvest in 2013-14 (19.8 ml.t)
v/s target 19.0 ml.t and 2012-13 (18.4 ml.t)

• Government policies and research
inputs working
• Marked slow down in import
(2.7 ml.t. projected for 2013-14 fiscal v/s
3.8 ml.t. in 2012-13)
Thank You
• G. Chandrashekhar
The Hindu Business Line
Kasturi Building, J. Tata
Road, Churchgate, Mumbai 400020.
INDIA
Phone: 91 22 22885593
– 22021099 email:
chandrashekhar.g@thehindu.co.in email:
gchandrashekhar@gmail.com

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Global agriculture market drivers and outlook 2014

  • 1. India Pulses and Grains Association (IPGA) The Pulses Conclave 2014 February 19-21. Goa. Global Agriculture Market Drivers and Outlook 2014 G. Chandrashekhar The Hindu Business Line
  • 2. Global Agri-markets . . . so far • After 3 years of adverse weathereffects, markets turned benign in 2013 • Normal weather; rebound in major crops output – rice, wheat, corn, oilcrops, cotton • World agri markets in modest surplus • Speculative capital stayed in the sidelines • Liquidity-driven commodity boom ‘tapering’
  • 3. What to expect in 2014? • Markets are looking generally bearish!!!! • Decent harvests, replenished stocks are key drivers across grains & oilseeds in 2014 • High prices in 2010-2012 incentivized production expansion, rationed demand; • Softer prices in H2 2013 will encourage stock building;
  • 4. Outlook for 2014 • Corn: market looking bearish due to over-supplies; US plantings may surprise to the upside; if weather holds, further build up in stocks possible; • Wheat: prices will follow corn lower; especially post-July harvests; but winterkill issues and Argentina’s lower exports can tighten US stocks;
  • 5. Outlook 2014 • Cotton: constructive short-term due to tight ex-China supplies and stronger demand for US exports; • Sugar: bearish short-term due to higher than expected surplus for the current season; needs to be worked off; prices may turn bullish from late 2014 on poor supply incentive; tiny deficit in 2014-15
  • 6. Outlook 2014 • Soybean: tighter fundamentals than grains; SouthAm crop + potentially higher US plantings in spring will see prices ease gently over 2014-15; but strong Chinese demand and tight US stocks remain supportive factors; • Soyoil: changes in US biofuel mandate have created a bearish market; large soy crush program means more oil; • Soymeal: supplies should improve, depending on Argentina, easing price pressure
  • 7. In sum . . . . • 2014 expect benign global weather (although we may be only one El Nino away from a disaster) • US Fed ‘Tapering’ to reduce liquidity; US dollar to get stronger; Geopolitical situation not volatile, so crude to remain soft; • Limited price appreciation potential means speculative capital will stay away;
  • 8. Softer prices now …. may impact 2015 • FAO Food Price Index fell in January for first time in 3 months on lower prices of cereals, sugar, oils, meat; • Lower prices stimulating demand; Asian demand rising; • But, softer prices may impact plantings and production in 2015
  • 9. World Market for Pulses • 2013-14 global pulses output ~ 70 million tons (up 4%); • Field Pea: record 11.2 ml.t (up 10%), mainly dry green pea; growers responded to 2012-13 high prices; yellow pea up too • Chickpea: 13 ml.t (up from 11.1 ml.t) • Dry bean 22.6 ml.t. • Trade in field pea and dry bean 4.5 ml.t each; chickpea 2 ml.t.
  • 10. World Pulses Trade • Exporters target South Asia - India and neighbours; Canada, USA, Australia, Myanmar • China emerging as major importer of peas after India; food use growing; • As world agri-prices turn softer, will pulses defy gravity?
  • 11. India – the mover and shaker • Record harvest in 2013-14 (19.8 ml.t) v/s target 19.0 ml.t and 2012-13 (18.4 ml.t) • Government policies and research inputs working • Marked slow down in import (2.7 ml.t. projected for 2013-14 fiscal v/s 3.8 ml.t. in 2012-13)
  • 12. Thank You • G. Chandrashekhar The Hindu Business Line Kasturi Building, J. Tata Road, Churchgate, Mumbai 400020. INDIA Phone: 91 22 22885593 – 22021099 email: chandrashekhar.g@thehindu.co.in email: gchandrashekhar@gmail.com