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IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Nuclear power: What role will it play in meeting
energy security and climate goals?
Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director, International Energy Agency
Prague, 30 April 2019
IEA
2IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Global energy demand last year grew by 2.3%, the fastest pace this decade, an exceptional performance
driven by a robust global economy, weather conditions and moderate energy prices.
2018 – a remarkable year for energy
Annual change in global primary energy demand, 2011-18
100
200
300
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mtoe
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
3IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Renewables accounted for the largest growth in electricity demand, led by growth in solar, wind and hydro.
However, this growth was not fast enough to bend power sector emissions.
Electricity growth outpaces renewables acceleration
2010-16 2017 2018
0
200
400
600
800
1 000TWh
Average annual change in
electricity generation, 2010-18
Solar PV
and wind
Hydro and
biomass
Other sources
Electricity generation mix in 2018
Coal 38%
Solar PV and
wind 7%
Gas 23%
Nuclear
10%
Oil 3%
Hydro and biomass
19%
4IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Higher demand for fossil fuels drove up global CO2 emissions for a second year after a brief hiatus.
Increases in efficiency, renewables, coal-to-gas switching and nuclear avoided 640 Mt of CO2 emissions.
Annual change in global energy-related CO2 emissions, 2014-2018
Energy-related CO2 emissions hit a record high…
- 200
0
200
400
600
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MtCO2
5IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
40
80
120
160
China Russia India
GW
2017
Two directions for nuclear power
Without changes to policy, the contribution of nuclear power could decline substantially in leading markets,
while large growth is coming, as China takes first position within a decade
40
80
120
160
United
States
European
Union
Japan
Retirements
from 2017
2040
GW
Growth markets
Additions
to 2040
2017
Without policy changes
6IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
400
800
1 200
1 600
Gt
CO2 emissions from electricity generation
2018 2030 2040
Nuclear is the largest source of low carbon electricity in Europe
Without policy changes, three-quarters of Europe’s nuclear fleet would be decommissioned by 2040,
renewables growth and coal phase-outs cut CO2 emissions by 40%, but nuclear could help accelerate reductions
40
80
120
160
GW
Nuclear power generation capacity
2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Keeping current nuclear capacity
, but nuclear could help achieve deeper cuts
With current policies
7IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Conclusions
• There is a growing disconnect between climate ambitions and real-life CO2 trends
• There is no single solution to bending the emissions curve: renewables, efficiency, nuclear &
other innovative technologies, including storage, CCUS & hydrogen, are all required
• Nuclear power can contribute to reducing CO2 emissions & enhancing energy security; but
unless the barriers it faces are overcome its growth will be limited
• Nuclear Power in a Clean Energy System report will be launched at the end of May 2019,
highlighting the role of nuclear today and the implications of less nuclear in the future
• The IEA is ready to support governments and industry, with data, analysis, an “All-Fuels-And-
All-Technologies “ approach and provide “real-world solutions”
8IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
www.iea.org
IEA

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What role will nuclear power play in meeting energy security and climate goals?

  • 1. IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Nuclear power: What role will it play in meeting energy security and climate goals? Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director, International Energy Agency Prague, 30 April 2019 IEA
  • 2. 2IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Global energy demand last year grew by 2.3%, the fastest pace this decade, an exceptional performance driven by a robust global economy, weather conditions and moderate energy prices. 2018 – a remarkable year for energy Annual change in global primary energy demand, 2011-18 100 200 300 400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mtoe Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables
  • 3. 3IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Renewables accounted for the largest growth in electricity demand, led by growth in solar, wind and hydro. However, this growth was not fast enough to bend power sector emissions. Electricity growth outpaces renewables acceleration 2010-16 2017 2018 0 200 400 600 800 1 000TWh Average annual change in electricity generation, 2010-18 Solar PV and wind Hydro and biomass Other sources Electricity generation mix in 2018 Coal 38% Solar PV and wind 7% Gas 23% Nuclear 10% Oil 3% Hydro and biomass 19%
  • 4. 4IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Higher demand for fossil fuels drove up global CO2 emissions for a second year after a brief hiatus. Increases in efficiency, renewables, coal-to-gas switching and nuclear avoided 640 Mt of CO2 emissions. Annual change in global energy-related CO2 emissions, 2014-2018 Energy-related CO2 emissions hit a record high… - 200 0 200 400 600 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 MtCO2
  • 5. 5IEA 2019. All rights reserved. 40 80 120 160 China Russia India GW 2017 Two directions for nuclear power Without changes to policy, the contribution of nuclear power could decline substantially in leading markets, while large growth is coming, as China takes first position within a decade 40 80 120 160 United States European Union Japan Retirements from 2017 2040 GW Growth markets Additions to 2040 2017 Without policy changes
  • 6. 6IEA 2019. All rights reserved. 400 800 1 200 1 600 Gt CO2 emissions from electricity generation 2018 2030 2040 Nuclear is the largest source of low carbon electricity in Europe Without policy changes, three-quarters of Europe’s nuclear fleet would be decommissioned by 2040, renewables growth and coal phase-outs cut CO2 emissions by 40%, but nuclear could help accelerate reductions 40 80 120 160 GW Nuclear power generation capacity 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Keeping current nuclear capacity , but nuclear could help achieve deeper cuts With current policies
  • 7. 7IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Conclusions • There is a growing disconnect between climate ambitions and real-life CO2 trends • There is no single solution to bending the emissions curve: renewables, efficiency, nuclear & other innovative technologies, including storage, CCUS & hydrogen, are all required • Nuclear power can contribute to reducing CO2 emissions & enhancing energy security; but unless the barriers it faces are overcome its growth will be limited • Nuclear Power in a Clean Energy System report will be launched at the end of May 2019, highlighting the role of nuclear today and the implications of less nuclear in the future • The IEA is ready to support governments and industry, with data, analysis, an “All-Fuels-And- All-Technologies “ approach and provide “real-world solutions”
  • 8. 8IEA 2019. All rights reserved. www.iea.org IEA