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IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
The LNG opportunity for Europe
Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director, International Energy Agency
Brussels, 2 May 2019
• 31 January 2019
2IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Global energy demand grew by 2.3% in 2018, the fastest pace this decade, driven by a robust global
economy, unseasonal weather, and moderate energy prices
2018 – a remarkable year in energy
Annual change in global primary energy demand, 2011-18
100
200
300
400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mtoe
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
3IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
The European Union needs to find imports to cover one-third of its demand by 2025, due to sharp
declines in the EU’s own production & the expiry of nearly 100 bcm of long-term gas import contracts
Produced / contracted gas & additional import requirements in the EU, 2018-2025
Europe will need to seek new gas imports
500
bcm
100
200
300
400
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Additional supply
needed
LNG
Caspian
North Africa pipe
Russia pipe
Norway pipe
EU-28 production
4IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
The United States accounts for a third of growth in global natural gas production to 2025
Natural gas production growth for selected countries and regions, 2018-2025
The United States takes the lion’s share of the growth in global supply
& two-thirds of anticipated growth in LNG exports
-50
0
50
100
150
200
US Russia Middle East China Australia East Africa Europe
bcm
Domestic market Export market
5IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
LNG from the United States, Australia, Qatar & elsewhere is expanding supply,
underpinning the shift towards a more flexible, resilient & interconnected global gas market
LNG is spurring a second natural gas revolution
2018
765 bcm
2025
1000 bcm
2000
525 bcm
Share of LNG in global long-distance trade
LNG
26%
Pipeline
LNG
45%
Pipeline
LNG
51%
Pipeline
6IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
The IEA’s view that natural gas might be poised to enter a ‘Golden Age’ was met with scepticism in
some places, but many of the trends identified in 2011 have come to fruition
A look back at WEO-2011 Special Report on Golden Age of Gas
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
2008 2018
Golden Age of Gas
projection
2018
actual
gas demand
bcm
7IEA 2019. All rights reserved.
Conclusions
• Global gas consumption is rising rapidly, led by Asia where moderate prices,
economic expansion and air quality concerns are key drivers of growth
• Europe will need to seek imports to cover one-third of its demand by 2025,
because of declining domestic production & the expiry of long-term contracts
• The growth of destination-flexible, hub-priced LNG exports from the United States
is providing a catalyst for a new, more liquid global gas market
• Minimising methane emissions & investing in hydrogen, biomethane & CCUS will
enhance the long-term sustainability of gas infrastructure
• For Europe, LNG is a viable way to increase competition, improve diversity &
reduce costs, while reinforcing flexibility & security of supply

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The LNG opportunity for Europe

  • 1. IEA 2019. All rights reserved. The LNG opportunity for Europe Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director, International Energy Agency Brussels, 2 May 2019 • 31 January 2019
  • 2. 2IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Global energy demand grew by 2.3% in 2018, the fastest pace this decade, driven by a robust global economy, unseasonal weather, and moderate energy prices 2018 – a remarkable year in energy Annual change in global primary energy demand, 2011-18 100 200 300 400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mtoe Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables
  • 3. 3IEA 2019. All rights reserved. The European Union needs to find imports to cover one-third of its demand by 2025, due to sharp declines in the EU’s own production & the expiry of nearly 100 bcm of long-term gas import contracts Produced / contracted gas & additional import requirements in the EU, 2018-2025 Europe will need to seek new gas imports 500 bcm 100 200 300 400 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Additional supply needed LNG Caspian North Africa pipe Russia pipe Norway pipe EU-28 production
  • 4. 4IEA 2019. All rights reserved. The United States accounts for a third of growth in global natural gas production to 2025 Natural gas production growth for selected countries and regions, 2018-2025 The United States takes the lion’s share of the growth in global supply & two-thirds of anticipated growth in LNG exports -50 0 50 100 150 200 US Russia Middle East China Australia East Africa Europe bcm Domestic market Export market
  • 5. 5IEA 2019. All rights reserved. LNG from the United States, Australia, Qatar & elsewhere is expanding supply, underpinning the shift towards a more flexible, resilient & interconnected global gas market LNG is spurring a second natural gas revolution 2018 765 bcm 2025 1000 bcm 2000 525 bcm Share of LNG in global long-distance trade LNG 26% Pipeline LNG 45% Pipeline LNG 51% Pipeline
  • 6. 6IEA 2019. All rights reserved. The IEA’s view that natural gas might be poised to enter a ‘Golden Age’ was met with scepticism in some places, but many of the trends identified in 2011 have come to fruition A look back at WEO-2011 Special Report on Golden Age of Gas 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 2008 2018 Golden Age of Gas projection 2018 actual gas demand bcm
  • 7. 7IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Conclusions • Global gas consumption is rising rapidly, led by Asia where moderate prices, economic expansion and air quality concerns are key drivers of growth • Europe will need to seek imports to cover one-third of its demand by 2025, because of declining domestic production & the expiry of long-term contracts • The growth of destination-flexible, hub-priced LNG exports from the United States is providing a catalyst for a new, more liquid global gas market • Minimising methane emissions & investing in hydrogen, biomethane & CCUS will enhance the long-term sustainability of gas infrastructure • For Europe, LNG is a viable way to increase competition, improve diversity & reduce costs, while reinforcing flexibility & security of supply