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The future of trucks
Implications for energy & the environment
Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director
Brussels, 3 July 2017

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Context
• Trucks are the fastest growing source of global oil demand
- At around 17 mb/d, trucks are the second largest source of global oil demand today
- Trucks make up for around half of global diesel demand today
• Trucks are also an important source of emissions
- Around 35% of transport-related CO2 emissions are from trucks
- Trucks are an important source of air pollution, and account for 20% of energy-related NOx
emissions
• Policy efforts for trucks are not widespread, only four countries have truck fuel
economy standards in place; international debate focuses largely on passenger cars
• How can trucks continue to support economic growth while meeting key energy and
environmental policy objectives?

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Petrochemical
Other
Transport
70
75
80
85
90
95
Globaloildemand(mb/d)Trucks drive global oil demand
Trucks were responsible for nearly 40% of the growth in global oil demand since 2000; they are the
fastest growing source of oil demand, in particular for diesel.
2000 2015Increase by sector
Trucks
Cars
Other transport

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Truck markets set to move to Asia
The truck market is changing focus towards emerging economies; by 2050, the United States and the
European Union account for only 10% of the global truck sales, down from 20% today
Truck sales in the Reference Scenario
2
4
6
8
10
2015 2050
Rest of world
Southeast Asia
India
China
European Union
United States
Million

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CO2 emissions growth in the Reference Scenario, 2015-2050
A modern truck sector is still a long haul away
Without further policy efforts, trucks will account for 40% of the oil demand growth to 2050
and 15% of the increase in global CO2 emissions
Power sector Industry sector
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Trucks
Aviation
Coal use
Mt

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An IEA vision for a modern truck future
• The IEA proposes a vision for modernising truck transport, in light of the
increasing relevance of the sector for future oil demand & emissions growth
• The IEA Modern Truck Scenario requires near-term efforts across three central
areas:
- Fuel economy policies to increase the efficiency of trucks through standards and
differentiated taxes
- Improvements of logistics, enabled by data gathering and sharing, to realise some of the
potential that underlies system-wide improvements
- Support to the use of alternative fuels, such as through RD&D and support to the build-
up of infrastructure

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Improved
efficiency
34%
An achievable, yet ambitious, vision for the future of trucks
Modernising trucks and systems operations could reduce fuel demand from trucks by 50% in 2050
and emissions by up to 75%, with benefits for energy security and environmental goals
Fuel demand saving in the Modern Truck Scenario relative to the Reference Scenario, 2050
13.5 mb/d
Fuel
switching
24% Improved
logistics
42%

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Conclusions
• Trucks are a key enabler of economic growth, delivering commodities & goods
from production sites to factories that use them, or to retails stores
• Trucks are a critical driver of global oil demand already today; without additional
policy efforts, trucks will be a main driver of future growth
• Trucks are also an important driver of transport-related CO2 emissions as
emissions growth from passenger cars is set to slow
• The IEA vision for modernising trucks requires a near-term focus on introducing
vehicle efficiency standards, improving logistics and RD&D for alternative fuels
• IEA is ready to support efforts to modernise truck transport as it strengthens its
role as a global hub for clean energy & energy efficiency

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