1.
© OECD/IEA 2017
LNG reshaping the global gas
market
Dr. Fatih BIROL
LNG Producer-Consumer Conference
Tokyo – 18 October 2017
IEA

2.
© OECD/IEA 2017
US unconventional gas revolution has far-reaching consequences
Since 2009, US shale has added some 180 Bcm, which is greater than Russia’s exports to Europe in 2016;
The US is forecast to account for 40% of the increase in global production to 2022
Changes in gas production, 2016-2022
- 40 0 40 80 120 160
Europe
Canada
Mexico
Australia
Russia
China
Middle East
United States
Bcm

3.
© OECD/IEA 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
bcm
Others
Russia
United States
Australia
LNG markets are reshaping
Around 140 bcm of LNG export capacity is under construction, with 75% of the total in Australia and
the United States
Annual LNG capacity additions, 2016 – 2022

4.
© OECD/IEA 2017
LNG trade flexibility keeps on improving
Trends from new signed contracts – more destination flexible and shorter – show proof of increasing
LNG trade flexibility
0 5 10 15
Signed in 2016
Signed in 2015
Signed before 2014
Contract length (years)
45% 50% 55% 60%
Signed in 2016
Signed in 2015
Signed before 2014
Share of fixed destination (%)
Recent evolution in LNG contracts

5.
© OECD/IEA 2017
Demand in developing countries reshaping the LNG market
China, India and other developing countries will import more than 50% of all LNG by 2022;
The number of LNG importing countries has risen from 5 in 2005 to 39 in 2016 and is set to reach 48 by 2022
LNG import volumes , 2012 - 2022 (bcm)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
bcm
Other developing countries
India
China
Developed countries

6.
© OECD/IEA 2017
Key messages
 A second gas revolution is underway, driven by LNG
 In spite of overall well supplied markets, events show that global natural gas security
remains a live issue and cannot be taken for granted
 LNG contract flexibility keeps improving towards more liquid markets
 LNG demand is diversifying, yet growing dependence from a growing number of
importing countries implies an evolving landscape for security of supply
 The IEA has a mandate to contribute to enhancing global gas security by improving
transparency, encouraging flexibility, and supporting greater resilience

7.
© OECD/IEA 2017
www.iea.org
IEA