1.
© OECD/IEA 2017© OECD/IEA 2017
Joint CSIS-IEA Workshop: the Strategic Role of Natural Gas
Dr Fatih Birol, Executive Director, IEA
Washington, D.C., 5 May 2017

2.
© OECD/IEA 2017
“We made a substantial analysis, we believe, on U.S. gas
markets. There is a silent revolution taking place in the
United States, so silent that nobody's aware of it, especially
in Europe … And this phenomenon, the boom of
unconventional gas in the United States, has far-reaching
impacts."
From the transcript of the launch presentation of WEO-2009
Council on Foreign Relations, New York, 23 November 2009
Fatih Birol, IEA Chief Economist
A look back at WEO-2009

3.
© OECD/IEA 2017
100
200
300
400
bcm 500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Marcellus
Utica
Bakken
Woodford
Fayetteville
Eagle Ford
Haynesville
Barnett
Other
Shale gas production in the United States, 2005-present
Since 2009, US shale has added the equivalent of two Qatars to the global balance:
after a slowdown in 2016, the sector is set for further robust growth
The shale revolution
Monthly data, converted to
equivalent annual output

4.
© OECD/IEA 2017
LNG spurs a second natural gas revolution
Share of LNG in global long-distance gas trade
Contractual terms & pricing arrangements are all being tested as new LNG from
Australia, the US & others feed into an already well-supplied market
2015
695 bcm
2040
1 150 bcm
2000
525 bcm
LNG
53%
PipelinePipeline
LNG
40%
Pipeline
LNG
26%

5.
© OECD/IEA 2017
WEO-2017 fuel focus on natural gas
 Multiple strands of analysis in an in-depth WEO focus
 Detailed projections for gas use to 2040, focusing on the opportunities &
competition for gas (vs. renewables, coal, efficiency, storage) by sector & country
 Implications of an upswing in US production for the domestic mix, North American
gas balances, global market dynamics & energy security
 Impact of the ‘LNG revolution’ on gas pricing & contracting structures; evolving
risks to gas security & ways to mitigate them
 Requirement for new gas infrastructure; investment & the changing roles
of gas in a decarbonising energy system
 Co-benefits & challenges of gas use: e.g. role of gas in improving air quality: risk of
methane emissions along the value chain
 Supply technologies & costs; role of unconventional gas outside North America;
floating storage & regasification; innovation (e.g. power-to-gas, hydrogen)
 Launch: 14 November 2017