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IEA
©	OECD/IEA	2017
Energy Technology Perspectives 2017
Catalysing Energy Technology Transformations
©	OECD/IEA	2017
Key points of orientation
• Global	energy	markets	are	changing	rapidly
ØRenewables	supplied	half	of	global	electricity	demand	growth	in	2016,	and	increase	in	
nuclear	capacity	reached	highest	level	since	1993
ØGlobal	energy	intensity	improved	by	2.1%	in	2016
ØElectric	car	sales	were	up	40%	in	2016,	a	new	record	year
• The	energy	sector	remains	key	to	sustainable	economic	growth
Ø1.2B	people	lack	access	to	electricity;	2.7B	people	lack	access	to	clean	cooking	
ØLargest	source	of	GHG	emissions	today,	around	two-thirds	of	global	total	
ØLargest	source	of	air	pollution,	linked	to	6.5	million	premature	deaths	per	year
• There	is	no	single	story	about	the	future	of	global	energy
ØFast-paced	technological	progress	and	changing	energy	business	models
©	OECD/IEA	2017
Global CO2 emissions flat for 3 years – an emerging trend?
IEA	analysis	shows	that	global	CO2 emissions	remained	flat	in	2016	for	the	third	year	in	a	row,	even	though	the	global	
economy	grew,	led	by	emission	declines	in	the	US	and	China.
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016
Gt
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
©	OECD/IEA	2017
0
10
20
30
40
2014 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtCO2
Efficiency	40%
Renewables	35%
Fuel	switching	5%
Nuclear	6%
CCS	14%
How far can technology take us?
Pushing	energy	technology	to	achieve	carbon	neutrality	by	2060	
could	meet	the	mid-point	of	the	range	of	ambitions	expressed	in	Paris.
Technology area contribution to global cumulative CO2 reductions
Efficiency	40%
Renewables	
35%
Fuel	switching	
5%
Nuclear	6%
CCS	14%
Efficiency	34%
Renewables	15%
Fuel	switching	18%
Nuclear	1%
CCS	32%
Global	CO2 reductions	by	technology	area
2	degrees	Scenario	– 2DS
Reference	Technology	Scenario	– RTS
Beyond	2	degrees	Scenario	– B2DS
0 200 400
Gt	CO2 cumulative	reductions	in	2060
©	OECD/IEA	2017
The potential of clean energy technology remains under-utilised
Recent	progress	in	some	clean	energy	areas	is	promising,	but	many	technologies	still	need	a	strong	push	to	achieve	their	
full	potential	and	deliver	a	sustainable	energy	future.
Energy	storage	
Solar	PV	and	onshore	wind			
Other	renewable	power			
Building	construction			
Nuclear			
Transport	– Fuel	economy	of	light-duty	vehicles		
Lighting,	appliances	and	building	equipment		
Electric	vehicles	
Energy-intensive	industrial	processes		
Transport	biofuels			
Carbon	capture	and	storage			
More	efficient	coal-fired	power			
●Not	on	track
●Accelerated	improvement	needed
●On	track
©	OECD/IEA	2017
Solar PV and Wind are still leading the transition…
Solar	PV	and	onshore	wind	electricity	generation	are	expected	to	grow	
by	2.5	times	and	by	1.7	times,	respectively,	over	2015-20.	
Electricity generation of selected renewable power generation technologies
0
200
400
600
800
1	000
1	200
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
TWh
PV
0
400
800
1	200
1	600
2	000
2	400
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
TWh
Onshore	Wind
Data Forecast Target
©	OECD/IEA	2017
… but can’t make up for other low-carbon generation sources
While	renewable	power	additions	keep	breaking	records,	they	need	to	grow	much	faster	to	reach	the	2DS	electricity	
generation	targets.	Progress	on	early-stage	technologies	also	needs	to	accelerate.
Total renewable power generation by region
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
2	000
4	000
6	000
8	000
10	000
12	000
14	000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2025
Share	of		Renewable	Generation
Generation	(TWh)
Rest	of	Non-OECD
Brazil
India
China
OECD	Europe
OECD	Asia	Oceania
OECD	Americas
Share	of	renewable	
generation
Share	of	renewable	
generation	2025
Historical Forecast Targets
in	the	2DS
in	the	2DS
©	OECD/IEA	2017
Can we push up the low-carbon power deployment pace?
Average	capacity	additions	in	different	periods	in	the	B2DS
Recent	successes	in	solar	and	wind	
will	have	to	be	extended	to	all	low-carbon	solutions,	and	brought	to	a	scale	never	experienced	before.	
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Last	Decade
Last	year
2017-2030
2030-2060
GW	per	year
Fossil CCS	(Incl.BECCS) Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar	PV Other	renewables
©	OECD/IEA	2017
Centralised fuel production,
power and storage
Systems Integration is essential for a sustainable energy future
We	need	to	move	away	from	a	one-directional	energy	delivery	philosophy
©	OECD/IEA	2017
Centralised fuel production,
power and storage
Renewable energy resources
EV
Co-generation
Smart energy
system control
Distributed
energy resources
Surplus heat
H vehicle2
Systems Integration is essential for a sustainable energy future
We	need	to	move	away	from	a	one-directional	energy	delivery	philosophy	to	a digitally-enhanced,	multidirectional	and	
integrated	system	that	requires	long-term	planning	for	services	delivery.
©	OECD/IEA	2017
The value of storage is starting to drive new solutions
Globally installed non-pumped hydro
electricity storage (GW)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2016 2020 2025
GW
non-PHS	Storage Pumped	Hydropower	Storage
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
2011 2014 2016
GW
Globally installed electricity storage (GW)
Positive	market	and	policy	trends	supported	a	year-on-year	growth	of	over	50%	for	non-pumped	hydro	storage
But	near-term	storage	needs	will	remain	largely	answered	by	existing	or	planned	pumped	hydro	capacity.
©	OECD/IEA	2017
Can we enact a storage revolution
Batteries	experience	a	huge	scale-up	in	the	B2DS,	with	EV	battery	markets	leading	other	sectors	in	size.
Installed	battery	storage	and	costs	under	various	scenarios	
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0
10	000
20	000
30	000
40	000
50	000
60	000
2000 2015 2030 2045 2060 2015 2030 2045 2060
2DS B2DS
USD/kWh
GWh
All	other	
sectors
EV	batteries
Battery	costs,	
2DS
Battery	costs,	
B2DS
©	OECD/IEA	2017
EVs are still on track, but need continued support
The	global	PEV	car	stock	has	reached	2	million	units	in	circulation	last	year,	but	sales	growth	went	from	70%	last	year	to	
40%	this	year,	suggesting	an	increasing	risk	to	start	diverging	from	a	2DS	trajectory.
Evolution of the global BEV and PHEV stock, 2010-2016
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
500
1	000
1	500
2	000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Number	of	vehicles	on	the	road	
(Thousands)
PHEV
BEV
Others
Germany
France
United	Kingdom
Netherlands
Norway
Japan
USA
China
EV	Growth	Rate
©	OECD/IEA	2017
Can we change the landscape of transport ?
The	transportation	sector	already	experiences	technological	change,
but	won’t	shed	its	oil	dependency	without	assertive	policies.
Vehicle sales and technology shares under different scenarios
Heavy-Duty	Vehicles	(millions)Light-duty	Vehicles	(millions)
0
40
80
120
160
200
2015 RTS	- 2060 B2DS	- 2060
0
5
10
15
20
25
2015 RTS	- 2060 B2DS	- 2060
©	OECD/IEA	2017
Enhanced buildings efficiency could also improve system flexibility
Efficiency	technologies	can	provide	the	same	level	of	comfort	while	reducing	energy	demand	despite	doubling	floor	area.
112	EJ157	EJ123	EJ
2014
(123	EJ)
RTS	2060
(157	EJ)
B2DS	2060
(112	EJ)
31% 54% 61%
Electricity ElectricityElectricity
37%
24%
3%
5%
Electricity
31%
Fossil	fuels Traditional	biomass Renewables Other Electricity
Energy	use	in	the	buildings	sector	under	different	scenarios
©	OECD/IEA	2017
Can we produce materials more sustainably ?
Effective	policies	and	public-private	collaboration	are	needed	to	enable	an	extensive	roll	out	of	energy	and	material	
efficiency	strategies	as	well	as	a	suite	of	innovative	technologies.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2014 2030 2060 2030 2060
RTS B2DS
Gt	CO2
EJ
Other	industries
Pulp	and	paper
Aluminium
Chemicals	and	petrochemicals
Cement
Iron	and	steel
Direct	CO2	emissions
Energy	use	and	direct	CO2 emissions	in	various	industrial	sectors	under	different	scenarios
©	OECD/IEA	2017
Can we produce enough sustainable biomass ?
Around	145	EJ	of	sustainable	bioenergy	is	available	by	2060	in	all	our	decarbonisation	scenarios,	
but	gets	used	differently	between	the	2DS	and	the	B2DS.
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
RTS 2DS B2DS
2014 2060
EJ
Transport
Industry
Buildings
Agriculture
Fuel	transformation
Power
Bioenergy	use	by	sector
©	OECD/IEA	2017
CCS	is	happening	today,CCS	is	happening	today,	but	needs	to	be	ramped	up	hundreds	of	times	to	achieve	long-term	goals
The	role	for	CCS	varies	based	on	local	circumstances.
A challenging task ahead for CCS
0
2	000
4	000
6	000
8	000
10	000
12	000
2030 2060 2030 2060
Today 2DS B2DS
Mt	CO₂
Rest	of	world
EU
IND
CHN
MEA
USA
Amount	of	CO2 captured	under	various	scenarios
0
20
40
Today
Mt	CO₂
©	OECD/IEA	2017
0
10
20
30
40
2012 2015
USD	(2016)	billion
Private Public Top	3	firms
0
10
20
30
40
2012 2015
USD	(2016)	billion
Private Public Top	3	firms
Global clean energy RD&D spending needs a strong boost
Global	RD&D	spending		in	efficiency,	renewables,	nuclear	and	CCS	plateaued	at	$26	billion	annually,	
coming	mostly	from	governments.	
Global	clean	energy	RD&D	spending	
0
10
20
30
40
2012 2021
USD	(2016)	billion
Private Public Top	3	firms
Mission	
Innovation
Mission	
Innovation
Top	3	IT	company	R&D	spenders
Global	RD&D	spending	in	efficiency,	renewables,	nuclear	and	CCS	plateaued	at	$26	billion	annually,
coming	mostly	from	governments.	
Mission	Innovation	could	provide	a	much	needed	boost.
©	OECD/IEA	2017
Conclusions
• Early	signs	point	to	changes	in	energy	trajectories,	helped	by	policies	
and	technologies,	but	progress	is	too	slow
• An	integrated	systems	approach	considering	all	technology	options	
must	be	implemented	now	to	accelerate	progress
• Each	country	should	define	its	own	transition	path	and	scale-up	its	
RD&D	and	deployment	support	accordingly
• Achieving	carbon	neutrality	by	2060	would	require	unprecedented	
technology	policies	and	investments
• Innovation	can	deliver,	but	policies	must	consider	the	full	
technology	cycle,	and	collaborative	approaches	can	help

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Energy Technology Perspectives 2017

  • 1. IEA © OECD/IEA 2017 Energy Technology Perspectives 2017 Catalysing Energy Technology Transformations
  • 2. © OECD/IEA 2017 Key points of orientation • Global energy markets are changing rapidly ØRenewables supplied half of global electricity demand growth in 2016, and increase in nuclear capacity reached highest level since 1993 ØGlobal energy intensity improved by 2.1% in 2016 ØElectric car sales were up 40% in 2016, a new record year • The energy sector remains key to sustainable economic growth Ø1.2B people lack access to electricity; 2.7B people lack access to clean cooking ØLargest source of GHG emissions today, around two-thirds of global total ØLargest source of air pollution, linked to 6.5 million premature deaths per year • There is no single story about the future of global energy ØFast-paced technological progress and changing energy business models
  • 3. © OECD/IEA 2017 Global CO2 emissions flat for 3 years – an emerging trend? IEA analysis shows that global CO2 emissions remained flat in 2016 for the third year in a row, even though the global economy grew, led by emission declines in the US and China. 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 Gt Global energy-related CO2 emissions
  • 4. © OECD/IEA 2017 0 10 20 30 40 2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 GtCO2 Efficiency 40% Renewables 35% Fuel switching 5% Nuclear 6% CCS 14% How far can technology take us? Pushing energy technology to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 could meet the mid-point of the range of ambitions expressed in Paris. Technology area contribution to global cumulative CO2 reductions Efficiency 40% Renewables 35% Fuel switching 5% Nuclear 6% CCS 14% Efficiency 34% Renewables 15% Fuel switching 18% Nuclear 1% CCS 32% Global CO2 reductions by technology area 2 degrees Scenario – 2DS Reference Technology Scenario – RTS Beyond 2 degrees Scenario – B2DS 0 200 400 Gt CO2 cumulative reductions in 2060
  • 5. © OECD/IEA 2017 The potential of clean energy technology remains under-utilised Recent progress in some clean energy areas is promising, but many technologies still need a strong push to achieve their full potential and deliver a sustainable energy future. Energy storage Solar PV and onshore wind Other renewable power Building construction Nuclear Transport – Fuel economy of light-duty vehicles Lighting, appliances and building equipment Electric vehicles Energy-intensive industrial processes Transport biofuels Carbon capture and storage More efficient coal-fired power ●Not on track ●Accelerated improvement needed ●On track
  • 6. © OECD/IEA 2017 Solar PV and Wind are still leading the transition… Solar PV and onshore wind electricity generation are expected to grow by 2.5 times and by 1.7 times, respectively, over 2015-20. Electricity generation of selected renewable power generation technologies 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 TWh PV 0 400 800 1 200 1 600 2 000 2 400 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 TWh Onshore Wind Data Forecast Target
  • 7. © OECD/IEA 2017 … but can’t make up for other low-carbon generation sources While renewable power additions keep breaking records, they need to grow much faster to reach the 2DS electricity generation targets. Progress on early-stage technologies also needs to accelerate. Total renewable power generation by region 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2025 Share of Renewable Generation Generation (TWh) Rest of Non-OECD Brazil India China OECD Europe OECD Asia Oceania OECD Americas Share of renewable generation Share of renewable generation 2025 Historical Forecast Targets in the 2DS in the 2DS
  • 8. © OECD/IEA 2017 Can we push up the low-carbon power deployment pace? Average capacity additions in different periods in the B2DS Recent successes in solar and wind will have to be extended to all low-carbon solutions, and brought to a scale never experienced before. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Last Decade Last year 2017-2030 2030-2060 GW per year Fossil CCS (Incl.BECCS) Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar PV Other renewables
  • 9. © OECD/IEA 2017 Centralised fuel production, power and storage Systems Integration is essential for a sustainable energy future We need to move away from a one-directional energy delivery philosophy
  • 10. © OECD/IEA 2017 Centralised fuel production, power and storage Renewable energy resources EV Co-generation Smart energy system control Distributed energy resources Surplus heat H vehicle2 Systems Integration is essential for a sustainable energy future We need to move away from a one-directional energy delivery philosophy to a digitally-enhanced, multidirectional and integrated system that requires long-term planning for services delivery.
  • 11. © OECD/IEA 2017 The value of storage is starting to drive new solutions Globally installed non-pumped hydro electricity storage (GW) 0 50 100 150 200 250 2016 2020 2025 GW non-PHS Storage Pumped Hydropower Storage 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 2011 2014 2016 GW Globally installed electricity storage (GW) Positive market and policy trends supported a year-on-year growth of over 50% for non-pumped hydro storage But near-term storage needs will remain largely answered by existing or planned pumped hydro capacity.
  • 12. © OECD/IEA 2017 Can we enact a storage revolution Batteries experience a huge scale-up in the B2DS, with EV battery markets leading other sectors in size. Installed battery storage and costs under various scenarios 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 2000 2015 2030 2045 2060 2015 2030 2045 2060 2DS B2DS USD/kWh GWh All other sectors EV batteries Battery costs, 2DS Battery costs, B2DS
  • 13. © OECD/IEA 2017 EVs are still on track, but need continued support The global PEV car stock has reached 2 million units in circulation last year, but sales growth went from 70% last year to 40% this year, suggesting an increasing risk to start diverging from a 2DS trajectory. Evolution of the global BEV and PHEV stock, 2010-2016 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Number of vehicles on the road (Thousands) PHEV BEV Others Germany France United Kingdom Netherlands Norway Japan USA China EV Growth Rate
  • 14. © OECD/IEA 2017 Can we change the landscape of transport ? The transportation sector already experiences technological change, but won’t shed its oil dependency without assertive policies. Vehicle sales and technology shares under different scenarios Heavy-Duty Vehicles (millions)Light-duty Vehicles (millions) 0 40 80 120 160 200 2015 RTS - 2060 B2DS - 2060 0 5 10 15 20 25 2015 RTS - 2060 B2DS - 2060
  • 15. © OECD/IEA 2017 Enhanced buildings efficiency could also improve system flexibility Efficiency technologies can provide the same level of comfort while reducing energy demand despite doubling floor area. 112 EJ157 EJ123 EJ 2014 (123 EJ) RTS 2060 (157 EJ) B2DS 2060 (112 EJ) 31% 54% 61% Electricity ElectricityElectricity 37% 24% 3% 5% Electricity 31% Fossil fuels Traditional biomass Renewables Other Electricity Energy use in the buildings sector under different scenarios
  • 16. © OECD/IEA 2017 Can we produce materials more sustainably ? Effective policies and public-private collaboration are needed to enable an extensive roll out of energy and material efficiency strategies as well as a suite of innovative technologies. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2014 2030 2060 2030 2060 RTS B2DS Gt CO2 EJ Other industries Pulp and paper Aluminium Chemicals and petrochemicals Cement Iron and steel Direct CO2 emissions Energy use and direct CO2 emissions in various industrial sectors under different scenarios
  • 17. © OECD/IEA 2017 Can we produce enough sustainable biomass ? Around 145 EJ of sustainable bioenergy is available by 2060 in all our decarbonisation scenarios, but gets used differently between the 2DS and the B2DS. 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 RTS 2DS B2DS 2014 2060 EJ Transport Industry Buildings Agriculture Fuel transformation Power Bioenergy use by sector
  • 18. © OECD/IEA 2017 CCS is happening today,CCS is happening today, but needs to be ramped up hundreds of times to achieve long-term goals The role for CCS varies based on local circumstances. A challenging task ahead for CCS 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 2030 2060 2030 2060 Today 2DS B2DS Mt CO₂ Rest of world EU IND CHN MEA USA Amount of CO2 captured under various scenarios 0 20 40 Today Mt CO₂
  • 19. © OECD/IEA 2017 0 10 20 30 40 2012 2015 USD (2016) billion Private Public Top 3 firms 0 10 20 30 40 2012 2015 USD (2016) billion Private Public Top 3 firms Global clean energy RD&D spending needs a strong boost Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually, coming mostly from governments. Global clean energy RD&D spending 0 10 20 30 40 2012 2021 USD (2016) billion Private Public Top 3 firms Mission Innovation Mission Innovation Top 3 IT company R&D spenders Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually, coming mostly from governments. Mission Innovation could provide a much needed boost.
  • 20. © OECD/IEA 2017 Conclusions • Early signs point to changes in energy trajectories, helped by policies and technologies, but progress is too slow • An integrated systems approach considering all technology options must be implemented now to accelerate progress • Each country should define its own transition path and scale-up its RD&D and deployment support accordingly • Achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 would require unprecedented technology policies and investments • Innovation can deliver, but policies must consider the full technology cycle, and collaborative approaches can help