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IEA
© OECD/IEA 2017
CEM8 Scene Setter: Tracking Progress
and Identifying Further Opportunities
Fatih Birol, Executive Director, International Energy Agency
8th Clean Energy Ministerial, Beijing, China, 7 June 2017
© OECD/IEA 2017
The energy landscape has shifted since the inaugural CEM in 2010
Since 2010, efficiency measures have slowed down growth in global energy consumption .
Renewables and natural gas account for almost two-thirds of the growth.
Shares in growth in world energy demand
Coal
47%
Oil
16%
Gas
23%
Nuclear
2%
Renewables
12%
Coal
10%
Oil
27%
Gas
31%
Nuclear
0%
Renewables
32%
2000-2010 2010-2016
© OECD/IEA 2017
Global CO2 emissions flat for 3 years – an emerging trend?
IEA analysis shows that global CO2 emissions remained flat in 2016 for the third year in a row, even
though the global economy grew, led by emission declines in the US & China
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016
Gt
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
© OECD/IEA 2017
Air pollution is a universal problem, especially in emerging economies
6.5 million premature deaths every year are caused by pollution from power plants, factories, cars and trucks
globally. Air pollution related health risks are largest in cities around the world.
Premature deaths due to air pollution
Low (0-50)
High (>100)
Medium (50-100)
Deaths per 100 000 people
Source: World Health Organization
© OECD/IEA 2017
The potential of clean energy technology remains under-utilised
Recent progress in some clean energy areas is promising, but many technologies still need a strong
push to achieve their full potential and deliver a sustainable energy future
Energy storage
Solar PV and onshore wind
Building construction
Nuclear
Transport – Fuel economy of light-duty vehicles
Lighting, appliances and building equipment
Electric vehicles
Energy-intensive industrial processes
Transport biofuels
Carbon capture and storage
More efficient coal-fired power
●Not on track ●Accelerated improvement needed ●On track
© OECD/IEA 2017
Can CEM and MI further accelerate progress?
On-track (green) technologies have had range of CEM and MI focus; orange technologies have had some CEM focus, but
not fully leveraging key policy opportunities; red technologies have some new MI focus, but none from CEM.
●Not on track ●Accelerated improvement needed ●On track
• No or limited CEM activity
• Opportunity for CEM to consider launching initiatives and catalysing targeted
support
• Some CEM workstream actions in these areas
• Opportunity for CEM to consider what activities and policies could help push
these technologies to “green”
• Multiple areas moving forward well aligned with some CEM work streams
• Nevertheless critical to ensure continued focus on appropriate policies
Observations:
© OECD/IEA 2017
On-track: Electric mobility is breaking records, but policy support remains critical
The global electric car fleet passed 2 million last year, but sales growth slipped from 70% in 2015
to 40% in 2016, suggesting the boom may not last without sustained policy support
Global electric car fleet
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Numberofvehiclesontheroad
(Thousands)
Others
Germany
France
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Norway
Japan
USA
China
© OECD/IEA 2017
Better grids, more flexible power plants and storage & demand side response will be needed to
integrate larger shares of wind & solar in a secure and cost-effective way
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
India
Chile
China
Canada
Japan
United States
Australia
United Kingdom
Italy
Germany
Spain
Denmark
% of wind and solar
in 2010
% of wind and solar
in 2016
Share of wind and solar in total electricity generation in selected CEM countries
On-track: Wind & solar transforming the power sector: system integration is key
© OECD/IEA 2017
Not on- track : Carbon Capture, Utilization and storage
• CCUS has vital role in “all-the-above” clean energy solutions
 All credible pathways to a sustainable future include CCUS
 Power sector has multiple de-carbonization pathways, many industrial sectors do not
• CCUS is a reality
 20+ years of operational experience
 17 large-scale CCUS projects across several industries throughout the world
• But its deployment is slower than what is needed
 Holistic approach critical, including specific incentives and tailored policies
 CCUS must be freed from being a “hostage of a global carbon price”
© OECD/IEA 2017
Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually,
coming mostly from governments.
Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually,
coming mostly from governments. Mission Innovation could provide a much needed boost.
0
10
20
30
40
2012 2015
USD(2016)billion
Private Public Top 3 firms
0
10
20
30
40
2012 2015
USD(2016)billion
Private Public Top 3 firms
Global clean energy RD&D spending needs a strong boost
Global clean energy RD&D spending
0
10
20
30
40
2012 2021
USD(2016)billion
Private Public Top 3 firms
Mission
Innovation
Mission
Innovation
Top 3 IT company R&D spenders
© OECD/IEA 2017
Conclusions
• Accelerating technological progress strengthens economies,
energy security and sustainability
• Policies and RD&D drive down costs and improve performance
• Clean energy technologies are progressing, but few on track
• Need to focus on all technologies; lack of progress on some
puts even more pressure on others
• IEA is proud to host & support CEM Secretariat, and committed
to help all CEM Members achieve their clean energy objectives

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Clean Energy Ministerial: Tracking Progress and Identifying Further Opportunities

  • 1. IEA © OECD/IEA 2017 CEM8 Scene Setter: Tracking Progress and Identifying Further Opportunities Fatih Birol, Executive Director, International Energy Agency 8th Clean Energy Ministerial, Beijing, China, 7 June 2017
  • 2. © OECD/IEA 2017 The energy landscape has shifted since the inaugural CEM in 2010 Since 2010, efficiency measures have slowed down growth in global energy consumption . Renewables and natural gas account for almost two-thirds of the growth. Shares in growth in world energy demand Coal 47% Oil 16% Gas 23% Nuclear 2% Renewables 12% Coal 10% Oil 27% Gas 31% Nuclear 0% Renewables 32% 2000-2010 2010-2016
  • 3. © OECD/IEA 2017 Global CO2 emissions flat for 3 years – an emerging trend? IEA analysis shows that global CO2 emissions remained flat in 2016 for the third year in a row, even though the global economy grew, led by emission declines in the US & China 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 Gt Global energy-related CO2 emissions
  • 4. © OECD/IEA 2017 Air pollution is a universal problem, especially in emerging economies 6.5 million premature deaths every year are caused by pollution from power plants, factories, cars and trucks globally. Air pollution related health risks are largest in cities around the world. Premature deaths due to air pollution Low (0-50) High (>100) Medium (50-100) Deaths per 100 000 people Source: World Health Organization
  • 5. © OECD/IEA 2017 The potential of clean energy technology remains under-utilised Recent progress in some clean energy areas is promising, but many technologies still need a strong push to achieve their full potential and deliver a sustainable energy future Energy storage Solar PV and onshore wind Building construction Nuclear Transport – Fuel economy of light-duty vehicles Lighting, appliances and building equipment Electric vehicles Energy-intensive industrial processes Transport biofuels Carbon capture and storage More efficient coal-fired power ●Not on track ●Accelerated improvement needed ●On track
  • 6. © OECD/IEA 2017 Can CEM and MI further accelerate progress? On-track (green) technologies have had range of CEM and MI focus; orange technologies have had some CEM focus, but not fully leveraging key policy opportunities; red technologies have some new MI focus, but none from CEM. ●Not on track ●Accelerated improvement needed ●On track • No or limited CEM activity • Opportunity for CEM to consider launching initiatives and catalysing targeted support • Some CEM workstream actions in these areas • Opportunity for CEM to consider what activities and policies could help push these technologies to “green” • Multiple areas moving forward well aligned with some CEM work streams • Nevertheless critical to ensure continued focus on appropriate policies Observations:
  • 7. © OECD/IEA 2017 On-track: Electric mobility is breaking records, but policy support remains critical The global electric car fleet passed 2 million last year, but sales growth slipped from 70% in 2015 to 40% in 2016, suggesting the boom may not last without sustained policy support Global electric car fleet 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Numberofvehiclesontheroad (Thousands) Others Germany France United Kingdom Netherlands Norway Japan USA China
  • 8. © OECD/IEA 2017 Better grids, more flexible power plants and storage & demand side response will be needed to integrate larger shares of wind & solar in a secure and cost-effective way 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% India Chile China Canada Japan United States Australia United Kingdom Italy Germany Spain Denmark % of wind and solar in 2010 % of wind and solar in 2016 Share of wind and solar in total electricity generation in selected CEM countries On-track: Wind & solar transforming the power sector: system integration is key
  • 9. © OECD/IEA 2017 Not on- track : Carbon Capture, Utilization and storage • CCUS has vital role in “all-the-above” clean energy solutions  All credible pathways to a sustainable future include CCUS  Power sector has multiple de-carbonization pathways, many industrial sectors do not • CCUS is a reality  20+ years of operational experience  17 large-scale CCUS projects across several industries throughout the world • But its deployment is slower than what is needed  Holistic approach critical, including specific incentives and tailored policies  CCUS must be freed from being a “hostage of a global carbon price”
  • 10. © OECD/IEA 2017 Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually, coming mostly from governments. Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually, coming mostly from governments. Mission Innovation could provide a much needed boost. 0 10 20 30 40 2012 2015 USD(2016)billion Private Public Top 3 firms 0 10 20 30 40 2012 2015 USD(2016)billion Private Public Top 3 firms Global clean energy RD&D spending needs a strong boost Global clean energy RD&D spending 0 10 20 30 40 2012 2021 USD(2016)billion Private Public Top 3 firms Mission Innovation Mission Innovation Top 3 IT company R&D spenders
  • 11. © OECD/IEA 2017 Conclusions • Accelerating technological progress strengthens economies, energy security and sustainability • Policies and RD&D drive down costs and improve performance • Clean energy technologies are progressing, but few on track • Need to focus on all technologies; lack of progress on some puts even more pressure on others • IEA is proud to host & support CEM Secretariat, and committed to help all CEM Members achieve their clean energy objectives