Global Energy Outlook and the
implications for Africa
Dr. Fatih Birol
Chief Economist
International Energy Agency
18th Meeting of the Africa Partnership Forum
Paris, 25 April 2012
© OECD/IEA 2012

The context: fresh challenges
add to already worrying trends
 Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy
& limited the means of intervention
 High oil prices – a major risk for the global economy
 Post-Fukushima, nuclear is facing uncertainty
 CO2 emissions rebounded to a record high
 Durban was a step forward, but is yet to make a noticeable impact on investment
© OECD/IEA 2011

High oil prices put a particular strain on
the Least Developed Countries
21
18
Oil imports Bill
$ billion
15
ODA
12
9
6
3
0
2009 2010 2011
The oil import burden of sub-Saharan Africa countries rose to $18 billion in 2011, swamping
their ODA by around 40%; the situation may worsen in 2012 if prices stay at current levels
© OECD/IEA 2011

Africa: 15% of the world's population
consuming around 5% of its energy
50%
Share of global
population
40%
Share of global
energy demand
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010 2035 2010 2035
Africa OECD
Africa’s share of the global population increases from 15% in 2009 to 20% in 2035, but its
share of global energy demand declines fractionally to 5.4%
© OECD/IEA 2011

Natural gas & renewables become
increasingly important
World primary energy demand
5 000
Mtoe
Additional
to 2035
4 000
2010
3 000
2 000
1 000
0
Oil Coal Gas Renewables Nuclear
Renewables & natural gas collectively meet almost two-thirds
of incremental energy demand in 2010-2035
© OECD/IEA 2011

Existing and announced policies will
not halt the rise in CO2 emissions
World energy-related CO2 emissions by scenario
45
Gt
6⁰ C
40
Current Policies
Scenario 3.5⁰ C
35
New Policies
Scenario
30
25
20
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
If governments follow through on their policy commitments, the temperature rise will be
3.5 ⁰C; otherwise we are on an even more dangerous track, for an increase of 6°C or more
© OECD/IEA 2011

Not all regions are major contributors
to CO2 emissions
2010
30.4 Gt CO2
Africa Rest of the
3% World China
Latin 19% 26%
America
4%
Japan
4%
US
Russia 18%
5%
EU
India + other 12%
dev Asia
9%
Africa constitutes 15% of the global population, but just 3% of global CO2-emissions
© OECD/IEA 2011

Per capita CO2 emissions fail to converge
12
9 2035
Tonnes
2010
6
3
0
OECD China Latin America India Africa
Africa’s low per capita emissions (just 10% of the OECD average) reflects its low
per capita energy consumption, and heavy reliance on traditional biomass
© OECD/IEA 2011

Energy poverty is widespread
Million people without electricity
Million people without clean cooking facilities
Sub-Saharan Africa China
8 423
Rest of
Latin America 585 653 developing
India
Asia
31
85 289 379
836
661
In Sub-Saharan Africa only 30% of the population has access to electricity,
in rural areas the share drops to 14%
© OECD/IEA 2011

Modern energy brings health benefits
Premature annual deaths from household air pollution and selected diseases
2.5
Million
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
2008 2030 2008 2030 2008 2030 2008 2030
Malaria Tuberculosis Smoke from HIV/AIDS
biomass
Clean cooking facilities would prevent the majority of deaths attributable
to indoor air pollution from burning biomass
© OECD/IEA 2011

Investment today is far from enough
$9.1 billion was invested in energy access in 2009
14%
22% Bilateral Official Development Assistance
Multilateral organisations
Developing country governments
34%
Private sector finance
31%
To achieve Energy for All, investment needs to grow more than five-times
to $48 billion a year – half of which in sub-Saharan Africa
© OECD/IEA 2011

Annual investment needed to
address energy poverty
Sub-Saharan Africa
20
15
10
Electricity Access 5
Isolated off-grid 0
and mini-grid $18.5 billion
On-grid
Additional investment of $18.5 billion needed yearly up to 2030,
© OECD/IEA 2011
to provide electricity to almost 600 million people currently without access

Implications of modern energy for all
20 40 Additional energy demand in the
Gigatonnes
Billion tonnes of oil equivalent
0.7%
1.1% Energy for All Case
15 30 Additional CO2 emissions in the
Energy for All Case
10 20
5 10
0 0
World energy World CO2
demand emissions
2030 2030
Achieving modern energy for all would not have significant negative effects on
energy security or climate change
© OECD/IEA 2011

All fuels have a role to play
Generation mix for universal electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa
On-grid Mini-grid & off-grid
226 TWh 278 TWh
9%
38%
Fossil fuels
Renewables
62%
91%
A range of technical solutions using different sources of energy is required
© OECD/IEA 2011

Concluding remarks
 Development in the “rich” economies came on the back of oil
prices that averaged just $13 per barrel
 Efforts to catch-up by the Least Developed Countries are being hamstrung by prices
some 10-times higher
 Providing modern energy access for all is achievable & would
have only a minor impact on global energy demand & emissions
 Africa needs investment of $18.5 billion per year to 2030 to bring
electricity to the 600 million people that currently lack access
 All sources & forms of investment need to grow considerably to meet target
 The World Energy Outlook has highlighted energy access
for a decade & will continue to do so
© OECD/IEA 2011