The document summarizes key points from the OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016. It discusses 8 megatrends that will impact science and innovation like aging societies and resource constraints. It also profiles 10 emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, biotechnologies, and the internet of things that will be important. The outlook notes challenges for governments in funding research due to competing priorities and calls for building international cooperation and more responsible innovation policies.

1. THE OECD SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY
AND INNOVATION OUTLOOK 2016
EC/OECD joint event for the launch of the OECD STI Outlook 2016
Andrew Wyckoff, OECD Director of STI
8 December 2016
Brussels, Belgium
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2. Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
“What’s new in the field of science,
technology and innovation policy? “
International review based on latest
policy information and indicators
Unique policy questionnaire
A 20-year tradition. Every 2 years.
New in 2016’s edition:
10-15 year horizon scan
Megatrends for STI
Key emerging technologies
Future research systems
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3. ONLINE CONTENT
~ 40 policy profiles
Cross-country comparison of
key STI policy orientation,
instruments and governance
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
3
BOOK and eBOOK
Megatrends for STI
Future technology
trends
The future of science
systems
Recent trends in STI
policies
International benchmarking and
recent national STI policy
developments
52 country profiles
ONLINE CONTENT
STI e-Outlook
STI Policy mapping Statistical platform
ONLINE INFRASTRUCTURES

4. Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
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8 Megatrends for STI

5. 5
Megatrends
& Technology
Trends
for STI
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Urgency of policy action
Science and innovation
are key

6. 6
Changing demand for innovation
• Ageing societies, areas of population growth (esp. Africa) and a growing middle
class (esp. Asia) will impact innovation demand and markets.
• Societal shifts in behaviours and expectations are expected as well.
Changing supply factors
• Materials less abundant => STI for less resource-intensive production and a
circular economy.
• Different labour profiles required => new STI and complementary skills.
• Fast-changing portfolios of productive assets, i.e. new technologies, new
practices in management, marketing, datasets (‘big data’) etc.
Changing context for R&D
• Need for interdisciplinarity, international R&D cooperation, international
technology diffusion, public-private partnerships.
• BUT greater inter-state competition and insecurity could lead to protectionism,
and a slowdown in international R&D cooperation and technology diffusion.
What do these challenges mean for STI and policies?
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016

7. 10 Emerging Technology Trends
Nanomaterials
Additive manufacturing
Advanced materials
Advanced energy storage
tech.
Micro and nanosatellites
Energy and environment
Blockchain
Artificial intelligence (IA)
Internet of Things (IoT)
Big Data and analytics
Neurotechnologies
Synthetic biology
Biotechnologies
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Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Digital

8. Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
10 Emerging
Technology
Trends
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9. Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Launch history and projection for nano- and microsatellites, 2009-20

10. 10
(re)Distributing the benefits
• Technological change creates winners & losers. Policy should address
distribution effects and ensure inclusive access to new technology-based
benefits (e.g. training, competition policy, etc.).
• Support to technology diffusion, e.g. through extension services, is often as
important as novel technology development.
Good policy governance
• Emerging technologies carry several risks and uncertainties – how should
they be governed?
• Addressing issues related to security, privacy, integrity and ethics.
• International cooperation is key.
Support to public research
• Public research plays pivotal roles in underpinning all of these technologies
by producing new knowledge and nurturing skills.
• Fostering open science to improve efficiency and effectiveness of public R&D.
How can we realise the potential of these technologies?
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016

11. 11
Megatrends
& Technology
Trends
for STI
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Capacity of governments
to intervene?
Competing policy priorities and
agendas (financial resources?)
Urgency of policy action
Science and innovation
are key

12. 12
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
R&D has fallen behind other policy priorities in many countries
Source: OECD R&D Statistics (RDS) Database, April 2016, www.oecd.org/sti/rds; OECD National Accounts Database.
Government budget appropriations and outlays for R&D, as a % of total government expenditures, 2000 and 2015

13. 13
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Public R&D budgets are likely to plateau around current ratios
Government budget appropriations and outlays for R&D, as a % of GDP
Source: OECD R&D Statistics (RDS) Database, April 2016, www.oecd.org/sti/rds.

14. Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Could increasingly generous R&D tax incentives jeopardize our fundamental research?
Change in R&D tax costs (% annual growth) and the share of public
support going to firms (% point) , 2006-14 or nearest years available
Source: Based on OECD R&D Tax Incentive
Indicators, www.oecd.org/sti/rd-tax-stats.htm, July
2016; OECD Main Science and Technology
Indicators, www.oecd.org/sti/msti.htm, June 2016;
OECD R&D Statistics (RDS) Database, April 2016,
www.oecd.org/sti/rds.
There is emerging evidence of
more public support going to firms
– and away from public research -
due to more generous R&D tax
incentives
More support given
to firms (and less to
public research)
More generous
tax concessions

15. 15
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Public research has shifted towards
universities …
Public R&D, OECD, % of GDP
Source: OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators (MSTI) Database, June 2016, www.oecd.org/sti/msti.
Higher
education
Government
Funding by industry, OECD, USD million 2010 PPP
… that are increasingly relying on
private funding

16. 16
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
The trend is poised to last:
STI policy is focusing on immediate economic imperatives
and policy efficiency gains
Source: Based on EC/OECD (forthcoming), International Database on STI Policies (STIP),
https://www.innovationpolicyplatform.org/sti-policy-database
STI policy priority index, 2016 compared to 2014

17. 17
Megatrends
& Technology
Trends
for STI
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Capacity of governments
to intervene?
Competing policy priorities and
agendas (financial resources?)
Shaping future R&D and
innovation policy agendas?
Opening science
Building international
cooperation
Urgency of policy action
Science and innovation
are key

18. 18
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
More responsible R&I policies encourage a greater intertwining of science and citizen
Policy mix for addressing
societal challenges
Gender balance
Building an
innovation
culture
New RRI governance
arrangements
Percentage of policy initiatives newly introduced, substantially revised or repealed over the period 2014-16
Source: Based on country responses to the EC/OECD (forthcoming), International Database on STI Policies (STIP),
https://www.innovationpolicyplatform.org/sti-policy-database

19. 19
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
Open science is on the march
Number of
papers, 2000-13
Source: Based on Laakso, M. and B.-C. Björk (2012), “Anatomy of open access publishing: A study of longitudinal development and internal structure”, BMC
Medicine, Vol. 10, p. 124, http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/10/124, and website of the Open Access Scholarly Publications Association (OASPA),
http://oaspa.org/growth-of-fully-oa-journals-using-a-cc-by-license/.

20. International knowledge networks are more diverse
20Source: OECD (2013), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2013: Innovation for Growth,
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/sti_scoreboard-2013-en.
Internationally co-authored articles
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016

21. 21
Highest expected citation impact of scientific authors by mobility profile
Based on the median Scimago Journal Rank (SJR) score of 2013, mobility patterns over 1996-2013
Source: OECD (2015), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015: Innovation for growth and society,
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/sti_scoreboard-2015-en.
International mobility is a major channel for knowledge circulation, if not the first
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016

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http://oe.cd/STIOutlook
• Global megatrends and societal challenges highlight the need for some big
solutions and radical changes, including in our STI policies.
• There is a risk of greater protectionism that could threaten future international
cooperation for R&D and innovation and international mobility.
• At the same time, new and emerging technologies will have a deep impact on
economies and societies. Although we can already anticipate their disruption, it is
still difficult to know precisely what form and scale this will take.
Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
• There are serious concerns about declining public funding for R&D and
innovation, and the situation could deteriorate further with austerity and ageing
societies.

23. Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
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