Material world workshop (July,2011) whitepaper

1. i-25 White Paper
Material World 2025
Visions, Challenges and Opportunities for Cross-Boundary Innovators
© The i-25 Team, July 2011
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2. i-25 White Paper
Table OF Contents
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..................................................................................... 3
SUPER EFFICIENCY ENABLES MATERIAL WORLD 2025.................................................... 3
OPPORTUNITIES TO RE-INVENT TRADITIONAL INDUSTRIES ............................................. 3
OPPORTUNITIES TO INVENT NEW INDUSTRIES ................................................................. 3
2. BACKGROUND.................................................................................................... 4
THE INCEPTION OF THE i-25 TEAM ................................................................................... 4
MATERIAL WORLD 2025 WORKSHOP .................................................................................. 4
THE ONGOING ACTIVITIES OF THE i-25 TEAM .................................................................. 5
3. SHARED VISION OF MATERIAL WORLD 2025............................................... 6
CONSTRAINTS DRIVE INNOVATION ................................................................................... 6
SUPER EFFICIENCY COMES TRUE .................................................................................... 7
4. RE-INVENT TRADITIONAL INDUSTRIES....................................................... 8
SUSTAINING INNOVATION TOWARDS SUPER EFFICIENCY.................................................. 8
A CASE IN POINT: CRADLE-TO-CRADLE PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY .................................. 8
5. INVENT NEW INDUSTRIES ............................................................................ 10
DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION TOWARDS SUPER EFFICIENCY ................................................ 10
A CASE IN POINT: LEARNING FROM MOTHER NATURE ................................................... 10
6. EXPANDING HORIZONS.................................................................................. 12
HORIZONS FOR INNOVATION IN MANY DIFFERENT SECTORS.......................................... 12
HORIZONS FOR INNOVATION IN BOTH MATURE AND EMERGING ECONOMIES ................. 13
7. CONCLUSION ................................................................................................... 15
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3. i-25 White Paper
1. Executive Summary
Super Efficiency Enables Material World 2025
Material World 2025 means “super efficiency comes true”. That is the shared vision of the i-25
team, a group of visionaries that represents a diverse cross-section of both industries and
academia.
There will be many constraints in the path towards 2025. As population explodes and the
global economy expands, expect shortages of skilled labor, energy, material, water, and food,
to name but a few.
It is the shared view of the i-25 team that the human society will find a way to flourish. Indeed,
history shows that constraints are the mother of innovation. The human appetite for a better
quality of life, combined with the increasing constraints, will galvanize people and organizations
towards “innovate and prosper” opportunities.
The i-25 team envisions two major paths towards a super-efficient Material World 2025, which
are likely to surface in many different sectors within the next 15 years.
Opportunities to Re-invent Traditional Industries
The first path will be geared towards sustaining innovations that help transform traditional
industries. There is still significant room for improvement in traditional industries to make them
more efficient and waste free. To achieve super efficiency in traditional industries, life-cycle
transparency of key resources is essential. This includes tracking energy footprints, material
footprints, water footprints etc. over the entire supply chain. Standards and tools that facilitate
cross-boundary collaboration will become the key to facilitate sustaining innovation in
traditional industries.
Opportunities to Invent New Industries
The second path will be driven by the so-called disruptive innovations that create new
industries, which either replace or build on traditional industries. While it is difficult to predict
where and when disruptive innovations happen, dramatic efficiency improvements in those
areas where traditional industries are heavily dependent on limited resources are good
segment candidates. Since Mother Nature still holds many mysteries to be unlocked, expect to
find a wealth of insights leading to disruptive innovations.
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4. i-25 White Paper
2. Background
The Inception of the i-25 Team
In 2010, Yokogawa created a set of future scenarios that described possible value pattern
shifts that might have a profound impact on the process industry within the next 15 years.
Yokogawa tested these scenarios with select visionaries in the European process industry
community in late 2010 and early 2011.
Strong Commitment for Green Earth
Material A Whole
World New World
High-value new Energy and ICT
materials dominate Services dominate
Tangible Products the world economy the world economy
Intangible Offerings
Retain their Value acquire new Value
Let it Be & Lazy Days
Oil & Gas still fuel the world
economy while industries undergo
a tremendous structural change
No Global Consensus
Upon receiving their positive feedback to these scenarios, Yokogawa decided to invite more
visionaries into this open and pre-competitive dialog about what may happen to the process
industries. The joint interest of the team is to stimulate each other and to be ahead of the curve,
preparing for and preempting discontinuous changes that might usher in new opportunities for
innovation.
Material World 2025 Workshop
On July 4th and 5th, 2011, the extended visionary team met for two days to explore the Material
World scenario. This is a world where accelerated innovations in both products and processes
enable a sustainable society while creating new sources of wealth for the process industries.
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5. i-25 White Paper
The Ongoing Activities of the i-25 Team
We named the visionary team “i-25”, which is an acronym for “Innovation in 2025”. The i-25
team wishes to continue an open, pre-competitive, and cross-boundary dialog to stimulate
innovative thinking. Publishing this white paper is the first result from the meeting for sharing
with interested parties.
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6. i-25 White Paper
3. Shared Vision of Material World 2025
Constraints Drive Innovation
For this vision to become a reality, a perfect storm of “constraints driving innovation” will have
to change the landscape of various industries.
From the mega trends, it is likely that we will face an explosive growth in population over the
next 15 years, which in turn will push up the global demands for energy, material, water, food,
and other necessities of the industrialized society. Meanwhile, under this scenario, global
awareness for sustainability will have reached sufficient levels forcing global consensus on
policies and regulations.
As a result, two often-conflicting yet complementary forces will be unleashed: the force of
disruptive innovations spearheaded by bold start-ups and the force of sustainable innovations
perfected by big incumbent companies. New innovative industries will emerge while traditional
industries will also re-invent themselves to capture the new values created in Material World
2025.
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7. i-25 White Paper
Super Efficiency Comes True
Material World 2025 means, “super efficiency comes true”. It is a world that has successfully
overcome the multiple shortage constraints of energy, material, water etc. -- not by lowering our
quality of life, but by innovating our way out of the constraints.
It is a world where there is no waste in the industrial supply chain. “100% conversion to value”
has become the reality. Furthermore, the majority of the products used daily in our society are
built on the “cradle-to-cradle” concept, enabling close to 100% recycling. Measuring the energy
efficiency of these recycling materials and products requires the establishment of a new
reference index; ‘carbon footprint’ is one example.
This movement changes not only industry but also individuals and society. Every person
understands that they play a key role in the sustainable world, such as recycling waste material
or products in the home. In addition, society establishes the infrastructure for recycling and
cooperates closely with industry to complete the value chain of recycling in an economical way.
As we have learned from history, innovative technologies have opened the door to new worlds
and improved our quality of life: innovative technologies and ideas lead us to the Material
World.
100% Conversion To Value
Transparent &
Sustainable Sources of Sustainable Lifestyles
Collaborative
Material, Water, Energy & Consumer Behavior
Industry Supply Chain
100% Recycling
An Image of Super Efficiency
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8. i-25 White Paper
4. Reinvent Traditional Industries
Sustaining Innovation Towards Super Efficiency
The i-25 team believes that the first place to look for innovative opportunities, to usher in super
efficiency, is traditional industries. Traditional industries, especially heavy process industries,
are very conservative in nature and are not the natural candidate for innovation. Shortages of
materials, energy, water, skilled workforce, etc. are already a very real and pressing issue in
traditional industries. The i-25 team views these constraints as a long-overdue wake-up call --
the biggest potential driver of innovation that can evolve traditional industries into the backbone
of a prosperous “Material World 2025”.
It is the shared view of the i-25 team that there is an opportunity for improvement in traditional
industries to make them more efficient and waste-free. The barrier for further improvement is
not necessarily technologies as there are already many technologies available that can help
transform traditional industries. What the i-25 team identified as major barriers to innovation in
traditional industries are, among others, risk-averse conservatism, standards and regulations
perpetuating “the way it has always been done here”, and lack of cross-boundary
collaborations. Conversely, if open innovation can become the norm in traditional industries, it
could start a chain reaction that may propel the most conservative sectors into the leaders of
sustaining innovation.
A Case in Point: Cradle-to-Cradle Production Efficiency
Since the conservatism of traditional industries is not a single company’s making, the i-25 team
focused on the challenge of cross-boundary collaboration. The recurrent theme here was the
Cradle-to-Cradle concept1 as promoted by Michael Braungart, a path towards zero-waste
supply chain. It means creating an overall supply chain that enables 100% conversion to value,
encompassing 100% recycling back to feedstock. For this Cradle-to-Cradle concept to become
a reality, it requires more than technologies alone.
First, it requires a pro-innovation business eco-system that promotes rapid diffusion of
innovations. The conservative sectors may be able to learn the best practices of "fast
innovation from the success of the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector. "2
The ICT sector, thanks to digitalization, has introduced a wide variety of new technologies.
Digital circuits replaced analog circuits and digital circuits further transformed into software.
1 Michael Braungart, “Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things”, 2002
2 Kouichi Ogawa, “Business Model Innovation for Standardization”, 2009
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9. i-25 White Paper
Standards defined module interfaces and assured interoperability, enabling any given company
to quickly and easily harness the state-of-the-art innovations. The i-25 team believes that
pro-innovation standards will play a key role in replicating this open innovation model in the
more conservative sectors.
Standards & Inter-
The second major requirement is the Operability
transparency of the entire supply chain.
The traditional industries can benefit Pro-Innovation Business
Eco-System
from: 1) Efficiency metrics that are
consistent over the supply chain and
2) Lifecycle traceability tools that can Transparency of the
Entire Supply Chain
track such sustainability metrics as
energy footprint, material footprint, Supportive Mindset in
Visualization, Management, Policy
water footprint, etc. over the life-cycle Tracking & Makers and End
Decision Support Consumers
of a given end product. To reiterate,
cross-boundary collaborations to put Education, Human
Capital
consistent metrics and tools in place
will be the key. Furthermore, as the Cradle-to-Cradle Production Efficiency
amount of data needed to calculate and visualize these key metrics will be overwhelming,
advanced visualization, and modeling mechanisms will be a necessity. The ICT sector provides
an interesting concept called big data3. It is a concept to handle the wealth of data coming from
the so-called ubiquitous computing environment, where sensors are embedded everywhere in
our society. The big data concept aims at getting real value out of this huge repository of data
by automated algorisms that support and/or eliminate the need for human decision-making,
thereby reducing information overload.
The third major requirement is the supportive mindset in company management, policy makers,
and end consumers. The i-25 team firmly believes a worldwide commitment to continuous
investments in education and human capital is necessary to enable the reinvention and
revitalization of the traditional industries.
3“Big data: the next frontier for innovation, competition, and productivity”, McKinsey
Global Institute, May 2011, http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/big_data/index.asp
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5. Invent New Industries
Disruptive Innovation towards Super Efficiency
While sustaining innovations in the traditional industries will go a long way for a prosperous
Material World 2025, the i-25 team sees exciting new opportunities for disruptive innovations at
the same time. Disruptive innovations often arise outside the traditional industries, creating
previously unknown categories that could either replace or complement the traditional
industries.
By their very nature, it is hard to “predict” disruptive innovations, but they would certainly be
most welcome in those segments where traditional industries are heavily dependent on limited
resources. If disruptive innovations allow us to harness the power of biochemical reactions, for
example, we could envision a “biochemical complex” that applies biochemical reactions to the
production of bulk material. For that reason, it may be possible to replace and/or supplement
synthetic chemical processing with less hazardous and more sustainable methods of
production.
A Case in Point: Learning from Mother Nature
One may not need to look too far to gain new insights that stimulate disruptive innovation.
Mother Nature provides us with many examples of super-efficiency in biochemical processes,
which could suggest two paths toward disruptive innovations. One path is finding novel ways to
utilize organic materials we see in abundance around us, while the other is learning from exotic
natural environment discoveries found in new frontiers such as deep sea and space.
Utilization of organic materials can have multiplying effects on sustainability. Organic materials
are lighter and more resilient. Discovery of new applications for organic materials will allow the
industry to replace heavier and difficult-to-handle materials with metals that are lighter, safer,
and easier to manage.
We see emergent/potential applications of organic materials in areas such as:
 Light elastic, high-tension, fibers that allow safe and more fuel-efficient transportation
replacing steel and aluminum in automobiles, aircraft, and trains
 Organic Electroluminescence (EL) devices that could replace LEDs, electric bulbs,
and fluorescent tubes for lighting
 Fully organic batteries based on electron-rich organic membranes, replacing metals
such as Mn, Pb, or Ni-Cd in batteries. The combination of organic film battery and
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organic EL film could give birth to a wide variety of new household appliances
Learning from exotic natural environments will take time due to their prohibiting locations, but
once unlocked, their potential to stimulate new applications and industries could be enormous.
For example, we normally live in an ecosystem of moderate temperature and pressure with
solar energy and photosynthesis from chlorophyll. Ocean science in the 20th century
discovered an incredible deep-water hydrothermal vent, where biological communities exist at
very high temperatures and pressures in a nearly supercritical condition. The food chain, in
these areas, started from chemosynthetic bacteria living on sulfur compounds such as
hydrogen sulfide. A study of the biochemistry and DNA sequence of such microbes could
provide the possibility of innovative energy and food creation as well as the utilization of
deep-water materials such as rare metals and other valuable chemicals. Other environments
that are worth looking into include supercritical state of materials and microgravity in space.
For biochemical processes and organic materials to become an integral part of the industrial
supply chain, new measurement and analysis technologies need to be developed. Sensing
solutions must be ready for accurate in-vivo or in-situ measurement of biochemical processes.
Some of these new instruments must be able to operate under extreme conditions, helping to
unlock the mysteries of the exotic environment.
Accurate In-Vivo / In-Situ Measurement of
Biochemical Processes
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12. i-25 White Paper
6. Expanding Horizons
During the short time the i-25 team was together, they envisioned many different possible
scenarios across mature and emerging economies and across many different sectors of the
economy, but were only able to explore a limited number to any depth. Below is a summary of
other possibilities to expand the horizons and open up several more opportunities for 2025.
Horizons for Innovation in Many Different Sectors
The i-25 team envisioned many opportunities for both disruptive and sustaining innovations in
many sectors such as manufacturing, healthcare, agriculture, water supply, energy supply, and
transportation that go well beyond the process industries. Many of the challenges and wishes
identified during the workshop imply that similar sets of innovation will happen all over the
supply chain and infrastructure of our society.
Food, Water & Transportation Energy &
Manufacturing Healthcare
Agriculture & Mobility Material
Invent -Biochemical -Cloud-based -Accelerated -Full-sensory -Untapped energy &
New production healthcare services photosynthesis communications material sources
Industries processes doing & wearable devices doing away with doing away with such as
away with synthetic doing away with chemical fertilizers physical travel hydrothermal vents
processes intrusive health
Disruptive checks
Innovation
Towards
Super
Efficiency
Re-invent -Cradle-to-cradle -Faster scale-up -Sea farming as an -Smart ground -Alternative
Traditional efficiency & and less time to alternative food transportation more hydrocarbon energy
Industries transparency via market of new source accessible and & material sources
introduction of drugs via full usage -More efficient safer than cars such as shale gas
cross-industry of modeling desalination
Sustaining standards and technologies
Innovation tracking tools
Towards
Super
Efficiency
The i-25 team postulated that full sensory communication with sensors located in processes,
transportation systems and even shopping malls communicating directly with you will enable
better remote operations, improved awareness and safety and reduced travel requirements.
The team admitted though that technology was not ready yet for this but could be emerging in
the 2025 timeframe. As the global population continues to expand and with added technology
improvements, the team sees the extraction of ever greater resources from the sea beyond
deep sea oil drilling. With the continuing depletion of fish and other seafood, the team views
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13. i-25 White Paper
sea-farming as an important source of food in the future.
In 2025, most major cities could follow the lead of Singapore and London and virtually eliminate
the need for cars. It is possible by 2025 the USA will develop a nationwide transportation
system not built solely on air transportation. In any case, the i-25 team wants reliable,
affordable, and safe transportation by 2025. We see moves in that direction now with small
electric powered urban vehicles. As these become ubiquitous, we will see easy methods of
recharging them at charging sites while taking a coffee break and catching up on e-mail.
Life expectancy has improved significantly in the past quarter century and the i-25 team sees
the health and medical sector continuing that trend. New materials will help with the
development of less intrusive sensing devices and medical treatments. Wearable monitors –
maybe even as part of the wristwatch – will allow a daily check on our health via cloud based
applications linked to our doctor’s office and local hospital. Someday personal medicines will
address problems that have yet to occur.
Maybe the biggest issue in this energy hungry world – the team asked as a final question “How
do we exploit completely new energy sources such as space, hydrothermal vents and so on.
While this will not be an issue in the 2025 horizon, as hydrocarbon based energy will still be
available, new materials will not only allow us to obtain more oil from each well and to get
access to new sources such as shale gas, they will also allow us to harness energy sources
from previously unknown areas such as thermal vents in volcanoes. As space travel and
exploration also become a part of daily life and journeys to the moon and beyond become
routine, the team sees the ability to harness energy from space as something that will start to
grow.
Horizons for Innovation in both Mature and Emerging Economies
The i-25 team thinks that while the mature economies of the USA, Western Europe, and Japan
will remain stable and possibly even decline from a technology point of view, the booming
BRICS economies of Brazil , Russia, India and China will drive innovation to maintain their
growth in the use and re-use of key natural resources. In addition, the Next 11 economies
including Korea, Pakistan, and Vietnam will start to put additional demands on these limited
resources such as energy, water, and food. How will they get the energy they need such as
light, water, food, and mobility?
The i-25 team sees the ability to efficiently and cleanly generate, transmit, and store energy
and to supply safe and clean water to all as a key part of the BRICS and Next 11 economies
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14. i-25 White Paper
future growth. The Material World will deliver new chemicals and biochemicals that allow these
resources to last longer, be re-used, or recycled. As water becomes the ‘new oil’ it will create
renewed interest in desalination technology, which allows desalination of seawater locally or in
people’s homes. Small local power generation systems, based on new very high efficiency jet
engine turbine technology, will allow people in remote areas to have light and power at
reasonable cost.
There are some common themes that run through these expanded horizons. Limitations to vital
resources such as water and energy will drive us to investigate re-use and recovery
technologies, as well as more sophisticated exploration techniques.
Several members of the i-25 team envision ‘humanity’ reappearing as employers and
managers start to treat human resources as ‘human’ again. Due to the shortage of skilled
people, rewarding and challenging jobs will become available again as companies strive to
keep their valuable people.
This also opens up another facet of 2025 – predictive healthcare using sensors that can predict
medical conditions before they happen and tailor pharmaceuticals to address individual needs.
According to the i-25 team there will be breakthrough improvements in existing technologies
through better risk management and more accurate simulation technologies. These,
breakthroughs will encourage a culture of innovation and re-invention supported by politicians
who have a good knowledge of science and engineering.
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15. i-25 White Paper
7. Conclusion
It is the i-25 team’s shared conclusion that the key enabler of a prosperous “Material World
2025” is cross-boundary collaboration among visionary people and organizations.
Be it sustaining innovations that redefine traditional industries or disruptive innovations that
usher in new industries, no single company or organization can lay the necessary groundwork.
Pro-innovation people and organizations need to work together to help the industry embrace
new standards, new performance metrics, new mindsets, and new ecosystems that are
conducive to innovation.
The i-25 team desires to maintain and expand its open, pre-competitive, and cross-boundary
dialog for the future. Both face-to-face workshops and online networking allows the i-25 team to
keep identifying new challenges.
Since this is an open group of visionaries, new visionaries are welcome who are willing to
contribute to such a cross-boundary dialog. For more information about the i-25 team, please
contact Dr. Maurice Wilkins at Maurice.wilkins@us.yokogawa.com
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