By Peter Rose The relative contribution of Man's activities, as opposed to Nature's activities,,to the observed recent rises in Earth temperatures, is unresolved. In addition to the oft-noted inability of climate modeling to reproduce the documented recent past, a major shortcoming of contemporary climate studies is that they rest upon very short time spans, whereas climate change considered from a geological perspective encourages much less anxiety about the climate future of the world. If it turns out that most observed global warming is the result of natural causes, as seems increasingly likely, proposed voluntary economic initiatives by Western nations to limit CO2 emissions will constitute a serious and unnecessary economic wound, self-inflicted at the worst possible time. Sunspot cycles suggest that we are about to enter -- indeed may have already begun -- an extended period of global cooling. Recent unsavory revelations (“Climate Gate”) have cast doubt on thedependability of the science underpinning Anthropogenic Global Warming. Peter R. Rose (BS, MA, PhD, Geology, University of Texas at Austin) is a certified petroleum geologist who was Staff Geologist with Shell Oil Company; Chief, Oil and Gas Branch of the U.S. Geological Survey; and Chief Geologist and Director of Frontier Exploration for Energy Reserves Group, Inc. (now BHP Petroleum (Americas), Inc.). In 1980, he established his own independent oil and gas consulting firm, Telegraph Exploration, Inc. His clients include most major U.S. companies and prominent independents as well as many international firms and state oil companies. Dr. Rose has explored for oil and gas in most North American geological provinces and has published and lectured widely on U.S. resource assessment, basin analysis, play development, prospect evaluation, and risk and uncertainty in exploration. He has taught extensively at the professional level and was a 1985/1986 AAPG Distinguished Lecturer.

4. MEDIEVAL WARMING LITTLE ICE AGE

7. Earth temperature history from Greenland ice core data

9. LESS ELLIPTICAL MORE ELLIPTICAL SHAPE OF EARTH’S ORBIT

11. W. Soon, 2010

12. W. Soon, 2010

13. Insolation Temperature Track C0 2 Doesn’t Track Temp. 380 ppm

14. H. L. STEWARD 2008 CO2’s HEAT-TRAPPING CAPACITY DIMINISHES LOGARITHMICALLY

21. HUBER 2005

22. HUBER 2005

24. OIL & GAS A changing environment for future production Oil price vs OPEC spare capacity Source : IEA, September 2005 2002 2010 2020 2030 1971 1990 World oil demand Mb/d + 1.6% / yr 77 90 107 121 50 66 Reduction of spare capacities Mb/d Transport Petrochemicals Non-energy use Heating Electricity A growing world oil demand driven by transport fuels Spare capacity Brent price Hc prices keeping high for long term 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Mb/d $/b

25. RESERVES CUM CRUDE 2008

26. “ How many US dollars went overseas during 2005-2009 to pay for motor fuel burned in the US?” = $2.31 TRILLION GREATEST TRANSFER OF WEALTH IN HISTORY? 5 yrs x 365 days/yr x 21M bbl/day x 67% x ~$90/bbl –

28. QAc8506c U.S. Energy Consumption EIA, 2000, Annual Energy Review 1999, Appendix F, Tables F1a and F1b. Up, up, up and away…. 40 30 20 10 0 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 Quadrillion Btu Biomass Coal Petroleum Natural gas Hydro. power Nuclear power

29. QAd1023 QAd1023 U.S. Consumption I ask kids about renewables… Data: Annual Energy Review 1999 (EIA, 2000) U.S. Energy Consumption 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1845 1870 1895 1920 1945 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 Quad BTU Renewable Energy Hydroelectric Nuclear Energy Natural Gas Oil Imported Oil Produced Coal Wood and Waste

30. U.S. Energy Comparison Back to oil and gas Net Energy = Energy Produced - (Energy to Create + Energy to Operate)

31. HORATIUS AT THE BRIDGE A Healthy Fossil-fuel Industry will buy us time to make a safe transition into a Sustainable, Alternate-Energy Future !

34. SALVADOR 2005 WORLD POPULATION PROJECTION

40. GOOD NEWS III -- U.S. Natural Gas Recoverable Resources have Increased by about 35% since 2006, a Current 100-year Supply at Present Consumption Rates. - - “Now, How to Gain Access to Gas-productive Lands?”

41. GOOD NEWS IV -- Development of Alternative and Diversified Energy Sources can Provide Fruitful new Investment Opportunities to Revitalize the US Investment Sector. $$

42. BAD NEWS -- Proposed “ Cap and Trade ” or Carbon Tax measures to restrict Energy Use are unnecessary and self-penalizing to the recovery of a robust economy -- especially since Developing Nations will exempt themselves.

45. Future generations depend on us to make good decisions .