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17. Feb. 2011
InMobi's Mobile World Congress Thought Leadership Whitepaper Series: Defining the next phase of mobile adverting.
MOBILE WORLD CONGRESS THOUGHT LEADERSHIP THE VALUE OF EMERGING MARKETS IN THE MOBILE ECOSYSTEM SERIESwww.inmobi.com 14 - 17 FEB, 2011
INMOBI MOBILE WORLD CONGRESS THE VALUE OF EMERGING MARKETS IN THE MOBILE ECOSYSTEM THOUGHT LEADERSHIP SERIES: DEFINING THE NEXT PHASE OF MOBILE ADVERTISING 13 February, 2011 As 2010 came to a close, it was clear that the debate over if “this will be the year of mobile advertising” ended with it. Good riddance! Mobile advertising is clearly here to stay and it’s absolutely huge. Ad spending ﬁgures aside, consumers have announced their intentions by ﬂocking to mobile, and advertisers have no choice but to follow. While the journalists and bloggers busily draft lists and make predictions, at InMobi, we decided to take a slightly different approach. Rather than simply add to the noise, we took a step back and asked ourselves “what will deﬁne the next phase of mobile advertising?” We chose to develop a series of whitepapers and offer in depth analysis, for a select number of topics. For the series we discuss three concepts that we think will deﬁne the next phase of mobile advertising. We invited partners in the industry to collaborate with us, and invite you to join the conversation on twitter@inmobi or on our blog at www.inmobi.com/inmobiblog. James Lamberti VP, Global Marketing and Research InMobi ABOUT INMOBI InMobi is the world’s largest independent mobile advertising network. With ofﬁces on four continents we provide advertisers, publishers and developers with a uniquely global solution for advertising. Our network is growing fast and we now deliver the unprecedented ability to reach 194 Million consumers, in over 115 countries, through more than U.S. $31.5 Billion mobile ad impressions monthly. We recently were selected as a 2010 AlwaysOn Global 250 Company to Watch in Silicon Valley. InMobi is venture-backed with marquee investors including: Kleiner, Perkins, Cauﬁeld & Byers and Sherpalo Ventures. The company has ofﬁces in London, San Francisco, Bangalore, Tokyo, and Singapore.© 2011 InMobi. The Value Of Emerging Markets In The Mobile Ecosystem Page 1 www.inmobi.com
INMOBI MOBILE WORLD CONGRESS THE VALUE OF EMERGING MARKETS IN THE MOBILE ECOSYSTEM THE VALUE OF EMERGING MARKETS IN GLOBAL Emerging markets continue to garner much media attention. But is it all just hype? The industry is still questioning whether emerging markets are really valuable. The common misperception in the developed world is that the U.S., UK, France, Germany, Japan, Australia, and Singapore, still represent the vast majority of revenues in the mobile ecosystem. Most people in developed markets ﬁnd emerging markets interesting and exotic, but don’t believe they are actually very valuable. In order to help establish the real value of emerging markets InMobi has used the latest market data from Informa Telecoms & Media. We combined their research on Mobile Data Services Revenues & Growth with our InMobi Network Data report, to form a more complete picture of the emerging mobile ecosystem. Together our research demonstrates that emerging markets are not just hype. Globalization is in fact real, and emerging markets are positioned to become the most important mobile media markets in the world. 1 Informa Telecoms & Media estimates that the global mobile data services market , including mobile advertising, was worth U.S. $224 billion in 2010. Over the next four years the market will increase to U.S. $340 billion in 2014. With limited growth prospects in developed countries, the emerging markets represent high growth areas and are becoming a key focus for the mobile industry including: mobile operators, handset manufacturers, infrastructure vendors, as well as the data services platform, advertising and technology vendors. It’s our belief that these emerging markets will soon eclipse the developer world and represent the vast majority of the global mobile ecosystem. Why? Because mobile adoption in the developed world is happening at blistering pace and the sheer scale of these markets will soon dwarf that of developed markets. FIGURE 1. MOBILE DATA SERVICES REVENUES BY REGION, 2008-2014 160 Mobile Data Services Revenues (US$ bil.) Asia Paciﬁc 140 North America 120 100 Western Europe 80 Eastern Europe 60 Latin American 40 Middle East 20 Africa 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 DATA SERVICES ARE PROJECTED TO GROW OVER 14% ANNUALLY THROUGH 2014. GLOBAL MOBILE DATA SERVICES REVENUES, 2008 - 2014 (US$ bil.) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 CAGR (%) Global Total 175.2 200.8 224.1 248.0 276.8 307.0 240.8 14.2% Source: Informa Telecoms & Media 1 Informa Telecoms & Media deﬁnes mobile data services, also referred to as value-added services, as all mobile services except voice calls. Mobile messaging, including P2P SMS, is also considered to be a mobile data service.© 2011 InMobi. The Value Of Emerging Markets In The Mobile Ecosystem Page 2 www.inmobi.com
INMOBI MOBILE WORLD CONGRESS THE VALUE OF EMERGING MARKETS IN THE MOBILE ECOSYSTEMFIFTEEN EMERGING MARKETS HAVE SIGNIFICANT SCALE IN MOBILEToday ﬁfteen emerging markets account for more mobile subscriptions than the rest of the world combined and this trendwill continue over the next ﬁve years. These markets are China, India, Indonesia, South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Turkey,Israel, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Russia, Poland and Ukraine. Due to the sheer volume of mobilesubscriptions in these markets, and continuing mobile penetration, they offer substantial investment opportunities for thetelecom and advertising industries. FIGURE 2. MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS IN THE 15 GROWTH MARKETS ALREADY REPRESENT MORE USERS THAN THE REST OF THE WORLD. Mobile Subscriptions Growth, 2008-2014 15 Growth Markets Rest of World 3,500 3,000 Subscriptions (mil.) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Note: Figures refer to year-end estimates Source: Informa Telecoms & MediaMarket data from Informa Telecoms & Media indicates that these 15 emerging markets generated around 30% of mobiledata services revenues in 2010, globally. With the revenue contribution expected to continue increasing over the nextfour years. In 2014, these 15 markets are expected to account for close to 36% of the global mobile data servicesrevenues.The key driver of mobile data services growth in emerging markets is the increasing availability of low-cost feature-richmobile phones. Mobile Internet and multimedia-capable handsets are now available for under U.S. $50 in mostemerging markets. When we combine low ﬁxed-Internet penetration with availability of these low-cost Internet-capabledevices, strong adoption and increased usage of mobile data services, the logical outcome fuels the underlying growththat is projected in these developing economies.© 2011 InMobi. The Value Of Emerging Markets In The Mobile Ecosystem Page 3 www.inmobi.com
INMOBI MOBILE WORLD CONGRESS THE VALUE OF EMERGING MARKETS IN THE MOBILE ECOSYSTEM FIGURE 3. EMERGING MARKETS REVENUE GROWTH WILL OUTPACE THE REST OF THE WORLD Mobile Data Revenues, 2008-2014 15 Emerging Market Rest of World 250 219 203 200 188 172 158 US$ Billions 144 150 129 122 104 100 89 77 67 57 46 50 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Informa Telecoms & MediaTHE RAPID GROWTH OF MOBILE DATA SERVICE USAGE IN EMERGING MARKETSSMS has historically been the preferred service for deploying mobile data services in emerging markets, but this will changein the coming years and is particularly true given the increasing availability of 3G services in developing markets. Forexample, India has recently launched 3G and continues to rollout the technology across multiple carriers in the region.InMobi network data trended over the past x months clearly shows the impact on mobile advertising of 3G competition inthe 2nd largest consumer market in the world. Similar trends are occurring in the other emerging markets as well.China and India had nearly 334 million mobile Internet users by the end of 2010, Informa believes that this number willgrow to around 730 million mobile Internet users by 2014. This shows the huge potential for mobile Internet advertisinggrowth in the Asia Paciﬁc developing region.What does this mean for Mobile Advertising?Informa Telecoms & Media believes that the total global mobile advertising market was worth U.S. $3.5 billion in 2010.Over the next ﬁve years, the market is expected to grow signiﬁcantly and generate revenues of over U.S. $24 billion in2015. In 2015, the largest share (around 31%) of mobile advertising revenues is expected to come from the Asia Paciﬁcdeveloping region, driven by strong growth in China and India.These projections are further supported with InMobi’s network data. In January 2011, InMobi received 31.6 billion adrequests, up from 6.8 billion a year prior, growing 4.5 times over in 12 months. This growth is among both smartphonesand advanced phones, with smartphones increasing at a faster rate. Smartphones now represent 36% of global adrequests, up from 13% a year ago.© 2011 InMobi. The Value Of Emerging Markets In The Mobile Ecosystem Page 4 www.inmobi.com
INMOBI MOBILE WORLD CONGRESS THE VALUE OF EMERGING MARKETS IN THE MOBILE ECOSYSTEM FIGURE 4. SMARTPHONES CONTINUE TO PENETRATE THE MARKET GLOBALLY AND GAIN SHARE. IN JANUARY 2011, SMARTPHONES REPRESENT 36% OF GLOBAL MOBILE AD IMPRESSIONS. 35.0 B Global InMobi Smartphone Impressions Growth 30.0 B 25.0 B 20.0 B 15.0 B 10.0 B 5.0 B .0 B Jan ʻ10 Apr ʻ10 Jul ʻ10 Oct ʻ10 Jan ʻ11 Source: InMobi Network Data, January 2010 – January 2011When analyzing ad requests by region, emerging markets command a signiﬁcant share of this ecosystem.Fifteen emerging countries represent 48% of all global impressions and continue to grow. FIGURE 5. THE 15 EMERGING MARKETS ALREADY REPRESENT NEARLY HALF OF THE INMOBI NETWORK. InMobi Network Share of Impressions - January 2011 Emerging Markets 48% Rest of World 52% Source: InMobi Network Data, January 2011© 2011 InMobi. The Value Of Emerging Markets In The Mobile Ecosystem Page 5 www.inmobi.com
INMOBI MOBILE WORLD CONGRESS THE VALUE OF EMERGING MARKETS IN THE MOBILE ECOSYSTEM Much of this growth in mobile advertising comes from emerging markets including India and Indonesia. In these emerging markets, identifying and sourcing compelling content from publishers for mobile Internet display advertising and making sure that the ads are relevant to a large audience despite the diverse cultural differences is a big challenge. Another issue is to ensure the delivery of the ads on a large number of different devices, including legacy devices, feature phones, basic handsets and smartphones. Informa Telecoms & Media believes that mobile will become an integral part of the advertising mix of more and more brands in the emerging markets over the next ﬁve years. Due to the high level of interactivity possible on mobile phones, brands will increasingly depend on mobile advertising to boost customer retention and loyalty, and also to drive sales for their business. A Lack of Channels Options in Emerging Markets Will Make Mobile a Primary One for Advertisers Another key factor that will inﬂuence the value of mobile advertising in developing markets relative to the established economies is more subtle and amount to the classic business paradigm of the innovator’s dilemma. In developed markets, there are several established media channels with nearly 100% consumer penetration and long entrenched businesses built around these channels. These include TV, Print, Radio, Fixed Internet, and even Outdoor. With the onset of mobile, despite its incredibly appealing media dimensions, major agencies and advertisers will be slow to move given the wealth of other options in media. Said another way, there is no forcing function for rapid change. The exact opposite is true in developing markets. Not only are there fewer channels overall, but those that exist have less penetration in comparison to developed markets. In developing markets, mobile already offers better reach than existing media and the pace of adoption along with composition of spend will be much higher in these regions as a result. MOBILE ADVERTISING MONETIZATION BY REGION Monetization of impressions in these emerging markets is a key factor to total ad revenues generated. It is apparent from the InMobi network data that the inventory exists and consumer demand will increase, but how does monetization in these emerging markets compare to developed mobile markets? The answer is not what many industry veterans would guess. When analysing eCPMs across regions, InMobi data shows that Western European countries lead monetization, followed by Africa, North America and Middle East. FIGURE 6. ECPMS BY REGION, DO NOT VARY BY ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE. THE DELTA IS NOT NEARLY AS GREAT AS MANY EXPERTS BELIEVE. MOBILE eCPM INDEX BY REGION 44 Latin America 50 Eastern Europe 69 Asia Paciﬁc MIddle East 102 North America 120 Africa 152 W. Europe 239 50 100 150 200 250 Source: InMobi Network Data, January 2011© 2011 InMobi. The Value Of Emerging Markets In The Mobile Ecosystem Page 6 www.inmobi.com
INMOBI MOBILE WORLD CONGRESS THE VALUE OF EMERGING MARKETS IN THE MOBILE ECOSYSTEM Looking at the data, we see that eCPMs range from Latin America on the low-end to Western Europe on the high-end, where monetization in Western Europe is 5 times greater than Latin America. This contradicts common perceptions in the industry, likely based on ﬁxed PC web monetization, that Western Europe and US monetization is 10 times higher than any developed markets. Over time, as advertisers perceived value of mobile advertising increases, eCPMs in emerging markets will continue to grow and close the gap with Western Europe and North America. CONCLUSION The sheer size and scale of emerging markets mobile user base combined with, the rapid growth of data services and the lack of alternatives to for advertising channels all will create signiﬁcant monetization opportunities in emerging markets. These markets currently deﬁned as “emerging” will soon constitute the majority of mobile advertising revenues and redeﬁnition of the term “emerging markets” will be in order. Informa plc is the leading international provider of specialist information and services for the academic and scientiﬁc, professional and commercial business communities. Informa has over 150 ofﬁces in more than 34 countries and employs 9,250 staff around the world. Informa is the largest publicly-owned organiser of conferences and courses in the world with an output of over 10,000 events annually. Informa publishes over 2,500 subscription-based information services including academic journals, real-time news and structured databases of commercial intelligence. Informas book business has more than 40,000 academic and business titles in print. Informas products are founded on high value content in a wide variety of subject areas. These range from the arts and humanities through social sciences to physical science and technology; from the professional domains of ﬁnance and the law through to commercial ﬁelds such as telecommunications, maritime trade, energy, commodities, and agriculture. Informa Telecoms & Media delivers strategic insight founded on global market data and primary research. We work in partnership with our clients, informing their decision-making with practical services supported by analysts. www.informatm.com Twitter: @informatm© 2011 InMobi. The Value Of Emerging Markets In The Mobile Ecosystem Page 7 www.inmobi.com