3. The Life Cycle of the Business
Dictates what Valuation Methodologies to use.
Impacts model assumptions in the DCF and the
selection of multiples in the Market Approach.
Exposes the risk posture of the client.
Emphasizes the need for long-range strategic
planning.
Impacts the clients need for a valuation and other
services.
Dictates a client’s timeline for Exit.
Highlights the need for a team of trusted
business advisors.
Next slide provided by attorney, Felix Gonzalez of the Archer Law Group
KENSINGTON FINANCIAL CONSULTANTS,
INC Copyright 2012
5. Going Bananas nd Produce Company
Balance Sheet
As of December 31, 2010
ASSETS LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL
CURRENT ASSETS CURRENT LIABILITIES
Cash $ 1,000,000 Accounts Payable $ 2,950,000
Accounts Receivable 13,500,000 Other Accrued Liabilities 75,300
Inventory 2,200,000 Current Portion of Long Term Debt 85,000
Prepaid Expenses 125,600 Line of Credit 1,250,000
Shareholder Loans 25,000 TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES 4,200,000
Other Receivables 10,000
Misc Other Assets 5,000
TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS 16,865,600 LONG TERM LIABILITIES
Mortgages Payable 2,500,000
PROPERTY AND EQUIPMENT TOTAL LONG TERM LIABILITIES 2,500,000
Property & Equipment 7,500,000
Accum Depr (5,625,000)
Total Property & Equip (net) 1,875,000 TOTAL LIABILITIES 6,700,000
OTHER ASSETS - Land 350,000 TOTAL CAPITAL 12,390,600
TOTAL ASSETS 19,090,600 TOTAL LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL 19,090,600
7. DCF Value Conclusion –
Base Case
Fair Market Value - Business Enterprise(C Corp) Control
Basis 56,143,400
Plus: Non-operating Assets - Excess Working Capital 5,165,600
Less: Debt (3,835,000)
Fair Market Value - Equity (Control, Marketable Basis) 57,474,000
Plus: S Coproration Premium - 15% 8,621,100
FMV - S Corporation Basis (Control, Marketable) 66,095,100
Less: Minority Discount - 24% (13,793,760)
FMV - Minority Non-Marketable Basis of Going Bananas 43,680,240
Less: Marketability Discount - 35% (15,288,084)
FMV - Minority Non-Marketable Basis of Going Bananas 28,392,156
Rounded to… 28,392,000
Notes:
a) Forecast based on Client Analysis - Assumes new growth areas in prepared fruits/salad kits & enhanced market share
b) Operating expenses and depreciation charges based on historical performance.
c) Discount Factor assumes Mid-Year Convention
d) Excess working capital defined as (Current Assets-Current Liabiliites) determined with reference to historical average.
e) This analysis was prepared for purposes of this valuation calculation and should not be used for any other purpose.
f) Long run inflation rate assumed to be 2.5%.
8. Going Bananas
Weighted Average Cost of
Capital
Cost of Equity Capital (Buildup
Method):
20-year US Treasury bond yield as of
Risk-free rate of return 4.13% 12/31/10
Long-term equity risk SBBI Valuation Edition 2011
premium 6.70% Yearbook
SBBI Valuation Edition 2011 Yearbook -
Size premium 6.28% 10th decile
Unsystematic risk premium
SBBI Valuation Edition 2011
Industry risk premium -1.55% Yearbook
Company risk premium 2.00% Estimate
Total equity rate 17.56%
Cost of Debt Capital
Prime rate at 12/31/10 was 3.25% per Federal Reserve
Average cost of debt 3.25% Bank of St. Louis
Tax rate 39.00% Estimated Federal and State
After-tax debt rate 1.98%
Capital Structure
Equity/invested capital 70.00%
Debt/invested capital 30.00%
Total invested capital
WACC (Rounded) 13.00%
Source
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H15/da
ta.htm
KENSINGTON FINANCIAL CONSULTANTS,
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9. Some Factors Considered for Risk Assessment
Intense competition can adversely affect market participant’s financial
performance.
Food distribution businesses are highly competitive and are characterized by
high inventory turnover, narrow profit margins and increasing consolidation.
The Company Produce competes not only with local, regional and national food
distributors, but also with vertically integrated national and regional chains that
employ a variety of formats, including supercenters, supermarkets and warehouse
clubs.
Many of The Company’s food distribution competitors are substantially larger
and may have greater financial resources and geographic scope, lower
merchandise acquisition costs and lower operating expenses, intensifying
price competition at the wholesale and retail levels. Industry consolidation
and the expansion of alternative store formats, which have gained and
continue to gain market share at the expense of traditional grocery stores,
tend to produce even stronger competition for both retail and food
distribution segments. Failure to implement strategies to respond to these
competitive pressures, can negatively impact operating results through adverse
affects on pricing (reductions), decreased sales or margins, or loss of market share.
Wholesale bypass is threatening food wholesaler’s existence. The main factor
that has undermined industry revenue growth is the increasing trend of wholesale
bypass. Retailers aim to source produce as cheaply as possible, which in some cases
leads them to undertake their own sourcing activities.
10. DCF Assumptions – Case Changes
BASE Case 2 Case 3
WACC 13% 14% 13%
Risk Average More Average
Revenue Growth 8% to 2.5% 8% to 2.5% 5% to 2.5%
Gross Margin 82% 82% to 80% 82%
Fair Market Value (1) $ 28,392,000 $ 33,104,000 $ 25,021,000
(1) S Corp Basis, Minority, Non-Marketable Basis
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11. Publicly Traded Guideline Companies
•Nash-Finch Foods
Nash-Finch Company operates as a wholesale food distributor in the
United States. The company's Military segment distributes grocery
products to the United States military commissaries and exchanges in
the United States and the District of Columbia, Europe, Puerto Rico,
Cuba, the Azores, and Egypt.
•United Natural Foods
United Natural Foods, Inc. is a national distributor of natural, organic
and specialty foods and non-food products in the United States and
Canada. The company operates through three operating divisions:
Wholesale, Retail and Manufacturing.
•Spartan Stores
Spartan Stores, Inc. operates as a grocery distributor and retailer
principally in Michigan and Indiana. The company operates in two
segments, Distribution and Retail.
•Core-Mark Holding Company
Smokes and snacks are at the center of Core-Mark Holding's cosmos.
The company distributes packaged consumables (including cigarettes
and other tobacco products, candy, snacks, grocery items, perishables,
nonalcoholic beverages, and health and beauty aids) to about 26,000
convenience stores; mass merchandisers; supermarkets; and drug,
liquor, and specialty retailers.
12. Mergerstat: Size Premiums
Small vs. Large Companies: Median P/E's Offered
Size Total # Median
Year P/E > $100MM P/E < 25MM Discount Transactions P/E All
2006 22.8 17.6 22.8% 464 26.1
2007 23.9 21.2 11.3% 498 28.8
2008 23 8.9 61.3% 289 21.7
2009 18.4 8.5 53.8% 210 20.7
2010 21.8 9.2 57.8% 301 24.4
Average - 5 Years 41.4% 24.3
Source: Mergerstat 2011 for transactions 2010 and prior. Pages 20-21
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13. Guideline Publicly Traded Company Method
Multiples of Revenues and EBITDA
LTM Most
Revenues Ending Recent MVIC MVIC/REV MVIC/EBITDA
Company $000 (FYE 0) $000 LTM LTM
NASH-FINCH $4,991,979 2010/12 2010/12 $ 810,136 0.2 6.1
UNITED NATURAL FOODS 3,925,338 2010/10 2010/07 1,965,413 0.5 13.4
SPARTAN STORES 2,520,370 2010/12 2010/03 558,659 0.2 5.5
CORE-MARK HOLDING COMPANY 7,266,800 2010/12 2010/12 402,995 0.1 7.5
LOW LOW 0.1 5.5
HIGH HIGH 0.5 13.4
MEAN MEAN 0.2 8.1
MEDIAN MEDIAN 0.2 6.8
Selected Multiple (1) 0.4 8.1
Size Adj - 41.4% (2) (0.2) (3.4)
Adjusted Multiple
(Min/Mkt) 0.2 4.7
Control Premium -
42.5% (3) 0.1 2.0
Adjusted Multiple
(Control/Mkt) 0.3 6.8
NOTES:
(1) Multiple as if freely traded - minoirty, marketable value indication
(2) Mergerstat discount for size - 5 year Average
(3) Mergerstat control premium - 5 year Average
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