The Subsea Market Report To 2016 is devoted to the global subsea oil and gas market and provides in-depth analysis of trends, issues, forecasts and technological developments. The Subsea Market Report analyses the subsea market at a number of levels by providing information at a regional level, by providing details of the activities of the predominant exploration and production oil companies and subsea equipment manufacturers (OEMs – original equipment manufacturers) and finally the Subsea Market Report dissects subsea capital expenditure into different components, including: subsea trees, manifolds, templates and the elements of subsea processing: subsea booster pumps, subsea compression and subsea separation.
1. Africa 31%
Asia 9%
Australasia 4%
Europe 12%
Latin America 22%
Mid East & Casp 1%
North America 21%
Subsea
Market Report To 2016
Infield Systems has just released its latest edition of the Global Perspectives Subsea Market Report To 2016. The eighth edition
of this ground breaking report is devoted to the global subsea market and provides a comprehensive analysis of its many facets.
Information is presented in such a way as to highlight the differing market dynamics, the changing investment opportunities,
the emergence and implementation of new technology and the dominance of different companies and manufacturers in each
regional market.
As operators face the dual challenge of sustaining their production
levels in mature regions and effectively exploiting the uncapped
reserves in growth areas, such as, West Africa, US Gulf of Mexico and
Brazil, the potential for subsea capital expenditure throughout the
forecast period has increased dramatically.
In order to leverage against declining production, Operators are being
forced to venture into remote and harsher locations. These projects
require top tier equipment that can cost significantly more than
the standard equivalent. Infield Systems estimate that ultra-deep
installations will account for almost 25% of the annual tree market by
2016.
As anticipated, the oil companies that lead the market are heavily
involved in the booming Latin American and West African prospects.
Petrobras is leading the board with an expected capital expenditure of
US$18.9 billion over the 2012-2016 period. Important developments
include the pilot projects in the Iara and Sapinhoa fields and a series of
EWTs in Sapinhoa, Libra, Iara, Franco and Iguazu fields
Prospects for manufacturers are also looking positive. The market
outlook shows a well-supplied market with a total capacity of 690 trees.
Towards the end of the forecast period, Infield Systems expects higher
utilisation rates and the start of a saturated market, driven mostly by
the increasing demand for subsea trees in main phases in Brazil and
West Africa. Global subsea tree manufacturers’ utilisation rates are
expected to increase to an average of 75% in the next 3 years, up from
49% in the 2009-2011 period.
Advances in technology are increasingly being tested and deployed in
response to the offshore industry’s demand for solutions to challenges,
such as: deeper and harsher waters, sustaining production rates in
mature developments, boosting flow rates in low pressure reservoirs,
accommodating a larger number of fields tied back to host facilities and
ensuring the energy and cost efficiency of a project. Possible projects
that could benefit from the use of advanced seabed technologies
include: the mature fields of the North Sea and the US GoM, where
a large number of small developments are expected to be tied back
to existing platforms in order to be commercially viable. Infield
Systems also expects that West Africa will be one of the key regions
for implementing subsea processing because of its already extensive
deepwater production, significant oil reserves and most importantly
the geographical distribution of its fields that require multiple wells
being tied-back to one central processing facility.
In Africa, oil companies such as Total, BP, ExxonMobil, Chevron and Eni
will try to take advantage of the area’s ample resources to leverage
against the declining reserves from other mature areas. Total is leading
the subsea bill with a projected US$8 billion of expenditure within the
forecast period.
Asia is also becoming an increasingly important part of the world
for the global oil and gas market as it is the fastest growing region in
terms of energy demand, and the hub of the global LNG sector. The
unfortunate events of 2011 in Fukushima, Japan, have also served to
increase the region’s dependency on natural gas.
Australia is emerging as a major player in the global natural gas market
due to the development of offshore natural gas and (onshore) coal
bed methane (CBM) projects. Post 2013, a significant backlog of major
projects is predicted to provide a boost to the market. More than 50%
of the forecast subsea market is expected to relate to subsea tiebacks
to a fixed, a floating or a terminal facility.
The European energy market is one of the largest in the world yet it
is also a region facing oil and gas production decline. The declining
production in this mature region dictates the need for additional
expenditure on infrastructure, EOR technologies and exploration
campaigns in order to sustain or enhance existing levels.
Latin America, particularly Brazil, has the potential to emerge as a
major offshore energy frontier in the global oil market. Petrobras has
begun to reveal reserve estimates for its pre-salt finds that stand to
significantly increase Brazil’s total estimated level of reserves. 38% of
the projected subsea Capex will be needed to develop the pre-salt
projects.
Finally, the North American market finds itself in a challenging period;
global recession followed by the Deep-water Horizon disaster, the last
two years have seen a change in the regulatory environment governing
operator activities across the region. Any future subsea equipment
and infrastructure will need to comply with these regulations and
have higher safety specifications, something that will lead to greater
capital expenditure per development. In addition, the rise of the local
Shale Gas market threatens to mix up the offshore market dynamics by
diverting the operators’ attention onshore.
Subsea Phased Capex by Region (2007 - 2016)
Source: Subsea Market Report To 2016
2. Why You Should Buy This Report
• The report contains data developed by Infield Systems’ market modelling process, OFFPEX, which
is based on a unique “bottom up approach” to forecasting. OFFPEX’s component by component
and project by project forecasting process is robust and has a proven track record.
• The report presents information on the expected capital expenditure and level of subsea
equipment installations by all the major subsea regions and the related countries, the different
oil companies, the major manufacturers, the different types of investment and the different
types of equipment.
• The report provides an independent and comprehensive analysis of the issues, new technological
developments and risks impacting the Subsea market today, and how these will affect future
developments over the next five years.
Report Contents
• Executive Summary provides an overview
of the Subsea market highlighting the
main points of the report and identifying
the most important subsea regions and
operators and presenting the largest subsea
tree manufacturers in terms of market
share.
• Global Market Overview reviews the
drivers behind the global offshore oil and
gas business, including current oil market
supply and demand fundamentals, oil
price trends, and the growth of deepwater
production and its impact on the global oil
market. It also provides a comprehensive
analysis of geopolitical turmoil in the
Middle East and North Africa and its impact
on the supply and price of oil.
• General Trends & Analysis provides a
more in-depth analysis of the main subsea
participants: oil companies and subsea
tree manufacturers. With regard to oil
companies, this section analyses where
Infield Systems expects each operator
to invest and provides specific details
on companies’ major future projects. In
addition, an analysis of subsea equipment
manufacturers’ client portfolios is provided
along with a presentation of their current
subsea frame agreements. Finally, a
discussion on the current subsea processing
developments is provided.
• Regional Analysis & Forecast contains a
detailedanalysisandforecastforeachofthe
following regions: Africa, Latin and North
America, Europe, Asia, Australasia and the
Middle East and Caspian. For each region
subsea capital expenditure for the forecast
period 2007-16 is presented together
with the number of subsea equipment
installations. In addition, investment figures
are broken down to development drilling
and subsea equipment costs and the five
projects requiring the greatest amount of
capital expenditure are highlighted. Finally,
information on the most significant regional
operators is provided.
• Component Analysis & Forecasts contains
detailed analysis and forecast of each of
the main sectors in the subsea market:
developmentdrillingandsubseaequipment
expenditure. In addition, various types of
subsea equipment such as subsea trees and
manifolds are presented in more detail. On
a closing note, all key changes in the cost
methodology are discussed together with
any significant forecast changes with regard
to specific projects, industry shocks such as
the Macondo oil spill and macroeconomic
and political issues.
Global & Regional Perspectives Market Reports
Infield Systems publishes a range of market reports covering various aspects and regions of the
oil, gas, renewable energy and associated marine industries. Utilising comprehensive in-house
project databases, industry models and research capacity these reports are widely used by industry
analysts and professionals:
• Deep & Ultra-deepwater
• Subsea
• Pipelines & Control Lines
• Fixed Platforms
• Floating Production
• Specialist Vessels
• FPSO
• Accommodation
• Subsea Well Intervention
• Heavy Lift
• Heavy Marine Transport
• Remotely Operated Vehicles
• Offshore LNG
• Africa
• Arctic
• Asia
• Australasia
• Latin America
• Middle East & Caspian
• North America
3. www.infield.com
Report Contents List
Online Database
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS
GLOBAL MARKET OVERVIEW
• 2011 in Review
- TheMacroMarket–OilandGasin2011
• Oil Markets
- Short-term WTI Oil Price Forecast
- Long-term WTI Oil Price Forecast
• How are the following sectors reacting?
- Oil Companies
- Oil Services
• Offshore Production & Reserves
- Oil & Gas Reserves
• Four Key Trends
- Deepwater
- Harsh Environment
- Further (Remote)
- Smaller Developments
• Key Basins
- Gulf of Mexico, Lower Tertiary
- Arctic E&P, the Final Frontier
- Brazil, Deepwater
- East Africa, LNG
GENERAL TRENDS & ANALYSIS
• Subsea Market Overview
• Operators
- Petrobras
- BP
- ExxonMobil
- Statoil
- Chevron
• Manufacturers
- Aker Solutions
- Cameron
- Dril-Quip
- FMC
- GEOG VetcoGray
• Subsea Processing Developments
- Introduction
- Seabed Separation
- Seabed Boosting
- High Integrity Pressure Protection
System (HIPPS)
- Electric Trees
- Conclusion
• Capacity
REGIONAL ANALYSIS & FORECASTS
• Introduction
• Africa
- Introduction
- Drilling & Completion
- Equipment
- Subsea Tree Awards by
Manufacturer
- Operators
• Asia (same as Africa)
• Australasia (same as Africa)
• Europe (same as Africa)
• Latin America (same as Africa)
• Middle East & Caspian (same as Africa)
• North America (same as Africa)
COMPONENT ANALYSIS & FORECASTS
• Introduction
- Subsea Market Sectors
- Subsea by Sector
- Subsea Drilling & Completion
- Subsea Equipment
- Subsea Trees
- Historical Subsea Tree Orders
- Manifolds
• Comparison with 2011 OFFPEX Model
• Global Forecasts
• Forecast Methodology
APPENDICES & NOTES
• Defined Regions/Countries List
• Glossary
- Glossary
- Product/Service Definitions
- List of Acronyms & Abbreviations
- List of Organisations and
Geographical Place Names
• Endnotes
Subsea Online (Essentials)
Purchasers of the Global Perspectives Subsea Market Report receive
12 months access to a database of major subsea projects (fields
being developed with four or more subsea wells) being planned
or considered for development in the current year and four years
forward, worldwide. Subsea Online (Essentials) is continually updated
with the following information provided about each project;
Subsea Online Service Overview
• A three user single site licence for a period of 12 months
• Access to the latest published data set
• Unlimited access to the data through InfieldLive
• Ability to download the complete data sets to MS Excel, MS
Access etc. or to interrogate the information online and export
results
• Support, assistance and advice on getting the most from your
subscription
Subsea Online Upgrades
The Subsea Online (Essentials) access can be upgraded to Subsea
Online (Standard) or Subsea Online (Professional) or to include other
field types or data sets from the Infield Offshore Energy Database.
Subsea Online (Standard) identifies all fields which are going to be
developed with one or more subsea wells in the current year and
four years forward, worldwide.
Subsea Online (Professional) identifies all fields, operational and
future, which have been, or are going to be, developed with one or
more subsea completions.
Subsea Online (Standard) and (Professional) list the same data set
as the Essentials edition, however, additional tables are provided that
include the following information:
• Tree Manufacturer (if known)
• Wells On Stream Prior To 2005
• Wells On Stream Annually 2005 to 2016
• Wells On Stream after 2016
A third data set is provided that shows the total numbers of trees
starting up annually from 1960 through to 2027 split by: Tree
Manufacturer, Country of Supply and Year of Start Up.
These two additional data sets are customised, therefore, can only
be downloaded from InfieldLive and the user is not able to run online
searches using the InfieldLive search engine.
• Field Operator
• Project Name
• Development Type
• Date / Year On Stream
• Date / Year Discovered
• Numbers of Subsea Wells
• High Temperature / High Pressure
• Reserves
• Field Production Rates
• Location
• Development Type
• Water Depths
• Project Status
• Depletion Date /Year
About This Report
Number of Pages: 198
Number of Figures: 221
Number of Tables: 152
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About Infield Systems
Infield Systems is an independent energy research and analysis firm
that is dedicated to the provision of accurate and up-to-date data,
market reports, mapping, analysis and forecasts for the offshore
oil and gas and associated marine industries. Infield Systems
also prepares market due diligence on mergers, acquisitions and
transactions for clients in the energy industry. Infield Systems services
clients in over 40 countries, including E&P companies, contractors,
manufacturers, government agencies and financial institutions, and
is widely acknowledged as the definitive independent source for
information, research and analysis on the offshore energy sector.
Infield Systems has developed a variety of business tools to help
companies make business decisions, all of which are supported by
direct access to consultants, senior analysts and support staff:
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14/06/2012
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