1. Telecommunications: replacing or catalyzing mobility? ICT and physical travel, from substitution to hybridization By Massimo Moraglio - Berlin Technical University IMTC – 2011 CTO Roundtable

3. It is intuitive that an e-mail often substitutes a physical letter, and that a remote connection saves a “proper” trip. In remoteness, often, the higher the level of reproduction of the degrees (and variety) of a face-to-face meeting, the higher its level of substitution. Video-conferencing is, in this respect, the most powerful tool. 1. Integration, neutrality, substitution and reciprocal catalyzing

4. But… The relationship between ICT and travel-based activities are definitely more complex and inextricable than it appears at first look. 1. Integration, neutrality, substitution and reciprocal catalyzing

10. In the past two centuries, growing ICT has been combined with a growing (physical) mobility. This trend is visible over the past three decades, and continues now. Therefore expanding (more precise and developed) ICT does not necessarily lead to a reduction of trips, because travel also intensifies. ICT and travel is NOT a zero-sum game. 2. NOT a zero-sum game

11. Another good example is paper consumption. Paper use has doubled, at least in the UK, despite (or because of) the strong development of ITC. 2. NOT a zero-sum game

12. So what? 1. The relationship between ICT and travel is rather complex, convoluted and difficult to clarify. 3. ICT and travelling NOT as alternative kingdoms

13. So what? 1. The relationship between ICT and travel is rather complex, convoluted and difficult to clarify. 2. But we can be sure, ICT and travel are NOT alternative kingdoms. One affects the other. 3. ICT and travelling NOT as alternative kingdoms

14. The technical availability of (cheap) ICT is pushing travelers to consume more ICT. 3. ICT and travelling NOT as alternative kingdoms

15. 3. ICT and travelling NOT as alternative kingdoms

16. The technical availability of (cheap) ICT is pushing (not paradoxically) people to travel more. 3. ICT and travelling NOT as alternative kingdoms

17. 3. ICT and travelling NOT as alternative kingdoms

18. The relationship between the two worlds of ICT and travel are also affected by the concept of MULTITASKING. (Kenyon and Lyons 2007) Too often the travel time is considered “lost”; however, multitasking while traveling allows further activity. 3. ICT and travelling NOT as alternative kingdoms

20. ICT is therefore not just a substitute for travel, but also instigates travels opportunities. More inputs = more outputs = more networks = more ICT ( and also more travel) A more mobile world, therefore will require more ICT, and more ICT will push, to some extent, more mobility. ICT and travel are more hybridized every day. 3. ICT and travelling NOT as alternative kingdoms

21. Which trends? The rise of energy costs is difficult to predict, but all experts bet on it. Therefore, in the medium run, travel will be considerably more expensive. Finale: which trends

22. Expensive energy does not necessarily mean less travel: e.g. USA car use is a constant trend, despite increasing costs for fuel. However, if such a price rise is unstoppable, there will be also a reduction in travel. Finale: which trends

23. But the energy issue is not the only reason for an expansion of video-conferencing. There is a broader awareness of social and environmental side-effects of travelling. Even with constant energy prices, this ecological attention will lead to a large increase in video-conferencing. Finale: which trends

24. Finally, companies quest for efficiency and cost control will push towards substituting travel with video-conferencing. These substitutions are not just reductions in costs, but will also become a network factory, in turn increasing business and contacts (and travel!) Finale: which trends

25. Thanks for your attention!