1. Global Outlook of Electric Vehicles
& Their Infrastructure
全球电动汽车及其基础实施
的发展前景
Professor C.C. Chan, FIEEE, FIET, FHKIE
Academician, Chinese Academy of Engineering
Fellow, Royal Academy of Engineering, U.K.,
President, World Electric Vehicles Association
President, Electric Vehicle Association of Asia Pacific
Honorary Professor, University of Hong Kong
陈清泉
中国工程院院士、英国皇家工程院院士
世界电动车协会主席、香港大学荣誉教授
2. 主要内容 Content
• 全球可持续发展
Global Sustainable Development
• 电动汽车技术路线和产业化路线
Technical & Commercial Roadmaps of Electric
Vehicles
• 动力电池的挑战
Challenge of Power Batteries
• 智能电网与电动汽车基础实施
Smart Grid & EV Infrastructure
• 标准化
Standardization
8. 2050: 50% Reduction of Global Emission
2050年降低全球50%排放
● ‘50 by 50’ is not enough… 2050年50%电动汽车还不够
● 2010: 850 million vehicles in the global car parc 2010年全球8.5亿汽车
● Using 55% of oil production 消耗55%油产量
● Approx 15% of global CO2 emissions 排出15% CO2
● 2050: 3 billion vehicles 2050年全球30亿汽车
● 2050: 50% reduction in global emissions needed for ‘2o’ 为维持‘2o’温升需要降
低50%全球排放
● Must reduce vehicle emissions by at least a factor of 6 汽车排放必需降低6倍
● That means 180g/km down to less than 30g/km 要从180g/km降到 30g/km
● We will need some disruptive solutions… 需要革命性地解决问题
8
9. Problems from Automobiles
汽车带来的问题：能源、环境、交通安全
Worldwide Industry and
<Automobile Related Issues
Technology Developments in
the 20th Century
Stress on Oil Reserve
Sharp Increase on Fossil
Fuel Consumption
Increase on CO2 emission
(Global Warming)
-Population Growth Air Pollution (Nitrogen oxides,
Particulates, Ozone)
-Vehicle Population
Growth
Increase on Traffic Accidents
10. Growing Gap between Oil Discovery and Production
石油储藏发现和产量的差距
Projection
60
50 Discovery
Billion Barrel / Year
Peak
40 Production
Production
30
20
10
0
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
Reference: http://www.oilposter.org Year
Oil production will reach the peak in the near future
11. Automobile Revolution in New Century
新世纪汽车的革命
• Energy: Efficient, Alternative Fuels. 能源
• Environment: Minimal Emissions. 环境
• Safety and Intelligent. 安全智能
• Powertrain: Electrification and hybridization动力
• Alternative Fuels 能源
• Control: New Control Theory and Algorithm,
Computerization and Digitalization 控制
• Future Vehicle: 4 wheels +computer
13. 电动汽车的成功：三好因素
好的产品、好的基础设施、好的商业模式
Success of EV/PHEV - Goodness Factor :
Good Products; Good Infrastructure; Good Business Model
基础设施
Infrastructure
EV
Market
商业模式
产品 Success
Business
Products
models
14. 好的产品：高性能、合理价格
Good Products:
High Performance @ Reasonable Cost
I: Integration of Automotive Technology and Electrical Technology
A: Alliance among Auto Makers and Key Component Suppliers
动力驱动
Powertrain
Technology
底盘和车体
I+A 能源储存
Chasis & Energy Storage
Body Technology
Technology
16. Good Infrastructure: Efficient & Convenience
好的基础实施：方便、经济、高效
Parking 14 hrs per day 2 hrs per day 7 hrs per day
Durations
Charging 1 charging point per < 0.5 charging point per vehicle 1 charging point per
Points vehicle vehicle
Power & Low power and High power and quick charging Low power and
Charing time normal charging (e.g. 22 kW, 2 hrs) normal charging
Requirements (e.g. 3kW, 10 hrs) (e.g. 3kW, 7 hrs)
20. EV Charger
Natural gas
EV Charger
Power AC
Coal Generation
100V / 200V
Biomass
AC 200 V
(TOYOTA INDUSTRIES
CORPORATION)
Power Grid
Nuclear
EV
DC
Renewable
energy
Rapid charging
DC 500 V
(HASETEC Corporation)
AC charger (100V/200V) for daily use
DC charger (rapid charging) for emergency use
25. Two Integration 两个结合
• Integrate EV with Smart Grid
电动汽车和智能电网的结合
• Integrate EV with Telemetic / ICT
电动汽车和远程智能信息控制、
汽车移动物联网相结合
26. Goal: Four Zero 目标：四个零
• Zero Emission 零排放
• Zero Fossil Fuel 零化石燃料
• Zero Traffic Accident
零交通事故
• Zero Traffic Congestion
零交通堵塞
27. By 2020, EVs would be about 7-12% of total volumes, China may reach 15-20%
全球电动汽车市场预测：2020年前约总销量的7-12%, 中国可达15-20%
2,400
Thousands
Global Electric Vehicle Market (Sales): Scenario Analysis, 2008-2015
2,000
Unit Shipments
1,600
Optimistic Scenario F&S Scenario Conservative Sceanrio
1,200
800
400
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2020
Scenario's 2008 2009 2015 (% of total car
sales)
Optimistic Scenario 5,103 17,475 2,266,450 12%
F&S Scenario 5,103 8,911 1,226,607 7%
Conservative Scenario 5,103 7,550 520,953 4%
28.
29.
30.
31. Electric Vehicle Roadmap
2010 2012 2016 2020
??? 10 — 15%
100s of EVs 100,000+ vehicle fleets
new vehicle sale
1st models 2nd Gen EVs
Mass market EV
available ‘Real’ electric innovation
Public familiarity and acceptance: Formula 3
● Fleet experience ● Acceleration of
● Early adopters
consumer interest
● Government reliability
and uptake
procurement driver
● ‘Clean Cities’ response
● Infrastructure
stdn
● Cost reduction
Maintain current momentum Real ‘electric innovation’
Current industry Current
Recession, EU and US regulations…
focus CO2, energy security……
government
focus
Phase 1 Phase 2
40. Hybrid Engineering Philosophy: 1+1>2
Hybrid Mule 骡 = Horse 马 (Mother) + Moke 驴 (Father)
Mule is the hybrid of horse and moke, mule takes the best DNA of
horse and moke, hence more powerful and endurance.
HEV should have added value gained from the integration of engine
propulsion and motor propulsion, fully sizes the intelligent electrical,
electronic and control technologies
41. 科学 Science 工程 Engineering
发现。 *积合科学、技术、管理
一般真理的知识 解决实际问题
Discovery Integration
认识世界 *改造世界
Understand world Create better world
为什么? *怎么样?为了什么?
Why How? What’s for?
个体活动 *集体
Individual Team
追求第一 First *追求最好 Best
42. Hybridization and Fuel Efficiency Potential/
Plug-in
ICE Power
Smart Starter Electric Power
Start-Stop Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid Plug-in Hybrid Plug-in Range Electric Vehicle/
Extender EV/
Functionality/
• Engine start- • Engine off on • Full regenerative • Plug-in • Full-function • Plug-in recharge
stop at idle deceleration braking rechargeable electric drive only
• Mild regenerative • Engine cycle
braking optimization
• More electric drive• Initial pure electric • 100% pure electric
• Electric power assist • Electric launch during charge- range range/100%
• Limited pure electric depletion • Significantly • No refueling
drive • Reduced refueling reduced refueling
• Engine downsize
• +2-4% • +10-20% • +30-50% Cars • +100% in charge • Electricity only in EV • Electricity only
ECONOMY
depletion/100% range/在EV
• +20-40% Trucks
FUEL
• same as full hybrid • same as full hybrid
afterward afterward
43.
44. R Ring gear
C R2
VSI1 EM1 R Trans.
R1
ICE C TC Carrier
BAT Fuel TR
S S
VSI2 EM2 mechanical link Sun gear R3
electrical link TS
Fig. 1; Series-parallel hybrid Vehicle using a planetary gear unit Fig. 1a; Planetary gear unit
VSI1 EM1 Trans. VSI1 EM1
BAT Fuel ICE BAT Fuel ICE Trans.
VSI2 EM2 VSI2 EM2
Fig. 2; Series hybrid Vehicle Fig. 3; Parallel hybrid Vehicle
VSI1 EM1 VSI1 EM1 Trans.
BAT Fuel ICE Trans. BAT Fuel ICE
VSI2 EM2 VSI2 EM2
Fig. 4; ICE Vehicle Fig. 5; Battery powered Electric Vehicle
45. Market Is Responding
Mitsubishi
BYD Ford
BMW Nissan Chevrolet
Tesla
Smart Toyota
Mercedes
46. Battery Electric & Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles
Chevrolet
BEV – Nissan Leaf PHEV – Chevy Volt
• All Electric Range: 60 to 200 Miles, • Unlimited range on gasoline
depending on battery size
• 10 to 40 mile all electric on battery
• Level II Charging
• Level I and Level II Charging
– 240 v (40 amp)
– 120 v – 240 v
– 4 to 6 hours charge
– 6 to 8 hours Level 1
• Target markets: – 3 to 4 hours Level 2
– Urban Commuters
• Target Market: all automotive
– Second Car in Every Home applications
47.
48. Response to Environmental and Energy Issues
HVs & PHVs with FCHVs Heavy-duty
Vehicle
internal combustion engine trucks
size
Passenger cars
Route buses
HV
EVs
FCHV(BUS)
Small
Short-distance Delivery
delivery
vehicles trucks
vehicles
FCHV
EV PHV
i-REAL
Winglet
Driving
Motorcycles distance
Energy Gasoline, diesel, bio-fuels, compressed
sources Electricity natural gas, gas to liquids, coal to liquids, etc.
Hydrogen
EVs: short-distance vehicles; HVs and PHVs with ICE: wide-use vehicles;
FCHVs: medium-to-large vehicles.
53. Characteristic EV @ Kyoto
西陣織 漆塗
京友禅
Kyoto-Car：Fusion of High-Tech and Traditional Culture
Bamboo-EV: Bamgoo Woody-EV GLM：TK-ZZ-EV
54. Kyoto-Car with Spherical Solar Cell “Sphelor”
A le tr d
ge c o e
+
n se
h ll
pc r
oe
Kyoto-Car with “Sphelor” 1.5 mm in diameter
Ae c oe
l le tr d
Solar cell sheets can be covered over all surfaces of car.
55. Energy Sources Comparison
各种能源的比较
Ultracapacitor
Short-Period
Energy Source
Long Period
Specific Power (W/kg)
Flywheel Energy Source
Gasoline + ICE
Electrochemical
Batteries
Fuel Cell
Rechargeable Non-
Rechargeable
Specific Energy (Wh/kg)
56. 对动力电池的基本要求
Cycle Life > 2000
Cost < RMB 3000 (USD 375)/kWh
Reliability: Volume of million vehicles
Mileage of 150000 km
57. Direction and milestone of R&D for the batteries for vehicles
＜target properties of the battery at the pack level＞
Improved Advanced Innovative
Current (2010) (2015) (2030)
Commuter EVs
Business use
Small-sized EVs Fuel cell vehicles
Vehicles commuter EVs Standard-
expected to be Plug-in HV Plug-in HV sized EVs
HVs More Efficient HVs
realized (20km EV) (60km EV)
Performance* 1 1 1.5 times 3 times 7 times
Specific Energy [Wh/kg] 100 100 150 - 700
EV
Specific Power [W/kg] 400 1000 1200 - 1000
Specific Energy [Wh/kg] 70 70 100 200 -
HV
Specific Power [W/kg] 1900 2000 2000 2500 -
cost 1 1/2 1/7 1/10 1/40
Universities and
Leading role Industry Industry-government- Research
Industry
for development initiative academia collaboration institutions
initiative
*Relative comparison using gravimetric energy density
NEDO Li-EAD NEDO RISING
Project (’07-11) Project (’09-15)
（source:http://www.meti.go.jp/report/downloadfiles/g60824b01j.pdf）
57
58.
59. An example of Li-Ion cell cost estimation
ref.) the 3rd Workshop on the Research of common fundamental technology in the NEDO Project, “Development of
59 Electric Energy Storage System for Grid-connection with New Energy Resources” (Tokyo, Feb. 24, 2010)
an
63. Pro’s & Con’s of LTO
Pro’s
Con’s
Intrinsically safe
A voltage ～1.5V above Li0 Low spec. E.D.
About 50-60% of conv. Li-ion cells
Amazingly long cycle life
Nearly no SEI, Crystal
Needs knowhow for scaled prod.
structurally stability
Good mat’l is hardly available.
High rate capability
Low impedance Lack of market consensus.
Both quality & quantity are lacking
Superb HT/LT performance
74. Electric Power & Communication
Infrastructures
1.Power Infrastructure
Data network Users
Central Generating Step-Up
Station Transformer
2. Information Infrastructure
Distribution Receiving Distribution
Control Center Substation Gas
Station Substation
Turbine Recip
Engine
Micro- Distribution
turbine Substation
Residential Data Commercial
Concentrator Recip Fuel
Engine cell
Photo
voltaics
Cogeneration
Batteries Flywheel
Industrial Commercial
Residential
Source: EPRI 74
75. Stability use for renewable energy by electric vehicle
The renewable energy of sunlight, wind, etc. into which the amount of power generation
greatly changes depending on the weather and time is saved in storage battery (LiB) with
high efficiency.
Renewable Energy Example: Equipment of one house
Solar power Wind power [ｋｗ] （southeast2.6kW+southwest1.4kW）
2.5
Fine
2.0
1.5 Cloudy
1.0
Rain
0.5
0
6 12 18 24
※Uncontrollable electric power Source data：the Research Center for Photovoltaics, National Institute of Advanced
Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) HP
Charging / Discharging
Battery (LiB)
76. Smart House
Increasing low carbon electricity and reduce peak electricity consumed
Management of electricity storage by EV and/or Lithium ion battery
Solar Cell
Converter
DC
Sell AC
Back up
Charge
Smart
Meter
Mid-night Charge Distribute
electricity Buy AC
DC Appliances
Grid
EV Battery（LiB）
77. Scenario for introducing Smart Grid
Evolution from “Smart House” to “Smart Community”, “Smart Grid”
Smart House Smart Community Smart Grid
Self-sufficiency of Micro-grid Connection to “Grid”
energy supply Network
Fossil fuel
Renewable energy
78. EVs would be plugged into home outlet for hours.
High-speed response with synchronization could be realized Autonomous
by using self-terminal frequency measurement. Distributed V2G
Maintaining battery condition and charging request by itself
...Centralized control scheme dispatching LFC signals to storage devices
Pump Storage
Hydro Nuclear
Thermal
Ubiquitous Power Grid Battery
Tie-line Power Grid
Wind
Power Grid
Load Dispatching Center
Regional Load
ECU / BMU Dispaching Center
Smart Charging
Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G)
DC-DC Inverter
Battery
Converter
バッテリ
Wind
Motor Photovoltaic
Distributed Grid
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Microgrid
Electric Vehicle
Battery
Distributed
Heat Storage Generator
Heat Pump Load
Water Heater
79. LFC without V2G LFC with V2G (200[MW]=5[kW]*4e4)
Frequency deviation[Hz]
Frequency deviation[Hz]
0 0
-0.02 Δfa -0.02
Δfb
-0.04 -0.04 Δfa
-0.06 -0.06
-0.08 Δfb -0.08
-0.1 -0.1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
(a) Frequency deviations Time [s]
400 400
300 300 Thermal
Thermal V2G
200 ΔPt 200
Power [MW]
Power [MW]
100
Load 100 ΔPt
0 0
-100 Load -100 Load
-200 -200
-300 Disturbance -300 Disturbance
-400 -400
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
(b) Power of system a Time [s]
200 200
150 150 V2G
100 Thermal 100
Power [MW]
Power [MW]
50 Load 50 Thermal
0 0
-50 -50
-100 -100
-150 -ΔPt -150 -ΔPt
-200 -200
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
(c) Power of system b Time [s]
V2G works as a spinning reserve faster than thermal power governor.
Quality of frequency is improved, and oscillation is also damped.
Response of thermal power generator become to be dominated by FFC-TBC,
and it is said V2G don’t disturb power grid LFC.
80. 0.15 (a) Frequency deviation
Frequency deviation [Hz]
0.10
+3σ
0.05
Moving
0.00 average
-0.05
-0.10
-3σ
-0.15
0 (b) 1 2 3 4 5 6
V2G power output and battery SOC 7 8 9 10 11 12
6 100
Charge 5
90
4 80
V2G power [kW]
3
Battery SOC [%]
2 70
1 60
0 50
-1 40
-2 Plug-out : 90[%] 30
-3
20
Discharge-4 10
-5 Plug-in : 20[%]
-6 0
7pm 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 7am
Time [hour]
Maintaining battery condition and replying charging request…OK
Charge energy from 20 to 90[%] 11.59[kWh] (0.97[kW])
Additional cycles for grid V2G+ : 19.63[kWh] (1.64[kW]), V2G- : 7.78[kWh] (0.65[kW])
