1. © 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1563B
March 2013
Foresight Engine Game Analysis:
25 Zones of
Future Innovation
© 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B
A project by Institute for the Future and The Rockefeller Foundation
www.iftf.org/our-work/global-landscape/catalysts-for-change/catalysts-zones-of-innovation
Contact: Tessa Finlev, tfinlev@iftf.org

2. © 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B
21 | Virtual Community Modeling
2

3. © 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B
New modeling and sensing capabilities will
allow communities and organizations alike
to share strategic information and to pre-
test interventions.
Virtual communities provide a similar test bed
for tracking resource use and trying out
innovative social solutions. Coupled with real
data, virtual modeling can be used by
students, development experts, and
community members to allow for greater
evidence-driven experimentation in building
growth with equity and resilience.
3
21 | Virtual Community Modeling | Future Innovation
© 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B

4. © 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B
When we combine player ideas to virtually map a community’s resources
within platforms like Second Life with robust databases, we have a
potentially powerful tool to test and perfect new models for poverty
alleviation. Adding emotion-sensing technologies like electroencephalography to
these models will take virtual community modeling to a new level, allowing us to
build community reactions directly into virtual spaces.
4
21 | Virtual Community Modeling | From the Players
© 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B

5. © 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B 5
21 | Virtual Community Modeling | Micro-forecasts from the Game
Might be cool if we could make
a web site with virtual legos
(cards) and just move them
around to answer different
questions?*
Taiwan**
*Cards have been lightly edited for readability.
**Player location was self selected.

6. © 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B 6
21 | Virtual Community Modeling | Micro-forecasts from the Game
Use agent-based modeling,
create virtual environment by
mapping village's resources
(see thehdmt.org for ex.), then
design agents (the people)
USA
Might be cool if we could
make a web site with virtual
legos (cards) and just move
them around to answer
different questions?
Taiwan

7. © 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B 7
21 | Virtual Community Modeling | Micro-forecasts from the Game
While raising money for
different causes is a method,
virtual worlds (like this one
too!) can help map future
paths because of new policies.
India
Might be cool if we could
make a web site with virtual
legos (cards) and just move
them around to answer
different questions?
Taiwan
Use agent-based modeling,
create virtual environment by
mapping village's resources
(see thehdmt.org for ex.), then
design agents (the people)
USA

8. © 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B 8
21 | Virtual Community Modeling | Micro-forecasts from the Game
Build agent-based models of
poor communities to conduct
“prospective impact
assessments" in virtual space
for proposed interventions.
USA
Might be cool if we could
make a web site with virtual
legos (cards) and just move
them around to answer
different questions?
Taiwan
Use agent-based modeling,
create virtual environment by
mapping village's resources
(see thehdmt.org for ex.), then
design agents (the people)
USA
While raising money for
different causes is a method,
virtual worlds (like this one
too!) can help map future
paths because of new
policies.
India

9. © 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B 9
21 | Virtual Community Modeling | Micro-forecasts from the Game
YES local evidence then
SCALE UP. But "coordination"
must include intent, models /
knowhow, resources,
evaluation, learning...
South Africa
Might be cool if we could
make a web site with virtual
legos (cards) and just move
them around to answer
different questions?
Taiwan
Use agent-based modeling,
create virtual environment by
mapping village's resources
(see thehdmt.org for ex.), then
design agents (the people)
USA
While raising money for
different causes is a method,
virtual worlds (like this one
too!) can help map future
paths because of new
policies.
India
Build agent-based models of
poor communities to conduct
“prospective impact
assessments" in virtual space
for proposed interventions.
USA

10. © 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B 10
21 | Virtual Community Modeling | Micro-forecasts from the Game
Yes, I have very much had my
eye on SecondLife and will
read that. SimCity or ??
adding climate to game. I want
to link real data to games.
Australia
Might be cool if we could
make a web site with virtual
legos (cards) and just move
them around to answer
different questions?
Taiwan
Use agent-based modeling,
create virtual environment by
mapping village's resources
(see thehdmt.org for ex.), then
design agents (the people)
USA
While raising money for
different causes is a method,
virtual worlds (like this one
too!) can help map future
paths because of new
policies.
India
Build agent-based models of
poor communities to conduct
“prospective impact
assessments" in virtual space
for proposed interventions.
USA
YES local evidence then
SCALE UP. But "coordination"
must include intent, models /
knowhow, resources,
evaluation, learning...
South Africa

11. © 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B 11
21 | Virtual Community Modeling | Micro-forecasts from the Game
Adapting or developing
systems that employ
Electroencephalography
USA
Might be cool if we could
make a web site with virtual
legos (cards) and just move
them around to answer
different questions?
Taiwan
Use agent-based modeling,
create virtual environment by
mapping village's resources
(see thehdmt.org for ex.), then
design agents (the people)
USA
While raising money for
different causes is a method,
virtual worlds (like this one
too!) can help map future
paths because of new
policies.
India
Build agent-based models of
poor communities to conduct
“prospective impact
assessments" in virtual space
for proposed interventions.
USA
YES local evidence then
SCALE UP. But "coordination"
must include intent, models /
knowhow, resources,
evaluation, learning...
South Africa
Yes, I have very much had my
eye on SecondLife and will
read that. SimCity or ??
adding climate to game. I
want to link real data to
games.
Australia

12. © 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B 12
21 | Virtual Community Modeling | Micro-forecasts from the Game
Might be cool if we could
make a web site with virtual
legos (cards) and just move
them around to answer
different questions?
Taiwan
Use agent-based modeling,
create virtual environment by
mapping village's resources
(see thehdmt.org for ex.), then
design agents (the people)
USA
While raising money for
different causes is a method,
virtual worlds (like this one
too!) can help map future
paths because of new
policies.
India
Build agent-based models of
poor communities to conduct
“prospective impact
assessments" in virtual space
for proposed interventions.
USA
YES local evidence then
SCALE UP. But "coordination"
must include intent, models /
knowhow, resources,
evaluation, learning...
South Africa
Yes, I have very much had my
eye on SecondLife and will
read that. SimCity or ??
adding climate to game. I
want to link real data to
games.
Australia
Adapting or developing
systems that employ
Electroencephalography
USA

13. © 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B
Signals from the Present
13
21 | Virtual Community Modeling

14. © 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B 14
Block by Block, a partnership of Mojang and
UN-Habitat, uses the game Minecraft to
virtually plan urban centers collaboratively with
local residents. The pilot project, Undugu
Playground, aims to rebuild a playground in
Kibera, Kenya.
SimCity 2013
SimCity 2013 includes a new level of
complexity and reality that forces players to
make tough choices and trade-offs on
energy, environment, and urban growth,
making it a great tool for modeling
sustainable urban planning.
21 | Virtual Community Modeling | Signals from the Present
Block by Block
Image Source:
www.simcity.com/en_US/media/screenshot/SimCity_Concept_Art_Casino_City
Image Source: www.mojang.com/2012/09/mojang-and-un-presents-block-by-block

15. © 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B 15
ReactionGrid builds customizable, multiuser 3D worlds that
can be used for anything from urban planning to military
training and scientific visualization.
21 | Virtual Community Modeling | Signals from the Present
ReactionGrid
Image Source: www.reactiongrid.com

16. © 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B
© 2013 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. SR-1563B
March 2013
Foresight Engine Game Analysis:
25 Zones of
Future Innovation
© 2013 Institute for the Future for Rockefeller Foundation. All rights reserved. SR-1563B
A project by Institute for the Future and The Rockefeller Foundation
www.iftf.org/our-work/global-landscape/catalysts-for-change/catalysts-zones-of-innovation
Contact: Tessa Finlev, tfinlev@iftf.org