Shenggen Fan Australasian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society (AARES) Annual Conference Melbourne, Australia February 12, 2019

1. The Benefits of
Multiple-Win
Technologies in
Agri-food Systems
Shenggen Fan
Director General
International Food Policy Research Institute
Australasian Agricultural and Resource
Economics Society (AARES)
Melbourne, Australia
February 12, 2019

2. Shenggen Fan, February 2019 2
Climate change Conflict, hunger,
and famine
Rapid population growth
and urbanization
Anti-globalization
Global agri-food systems face grant challenges

3. Shenggen Fan, February 2019 3
Source: UNICEF/WHO/WB 2018
Without accelerated progress, hunger and malnutrition
will persist beyond 2030
Source: FAO 2018
Undernourished population (millions)
We are not on track on SDG 2
Source: WHO 2018
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Number of people undernourished
Forecast
Upper bound forecast
Lower bound forecast
Children affected by stunting (millions)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Children affected by stunting Forecast
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Overweight (BMI≥25)
Forecast
Upper bound forecast
Lower bound forecast
Prevalence of adult overweight (%)

4. Shenggen Fan, February 2019 4
Source: Campbell et al. 2017
Under BAU, agriculture will almost reach
2°C target emission for all sectors in 2050
(~21 GtCO2e/yr)
Agriculture is pushing planetary boundaries Climate mitigation requires dramatic transformation
Source: Bajželj et al. 2014
BAU
2° target
by 2050
2009 emissions
from agriculture
CT1 = Current yield trend
CT2 = Current yield trend & 50% food waste reduction
CT3 = Current yield trend & 50% food waste reduction &
Healthy diets
YG1 = Yield gap closure (sustainable intensification)
YG2 = Yield gap closure & 50% food waste reduction
YG3 = Yield gap closure & 50% food waste reduction &
Healthy diets
And planetary health is increasingly at risk

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Automation and mechanization
 Increasing use of machines and electronics in agriculture
 Implications on youth unemployment – need to move jobs
to post-harvest service sector
Hydroponic, vertical or indoor farming
 Estimated US$750 million in North American private
investment in vertical farming (through Q3 2017)
 Economically viable and sustainable
Biotechnology (e.g. Gene sequencing)
 Dramatic reduction in cost per genome
 Sequenced crop genomes could improve
agriculture in challenging climates
Source: Indoor Ag-Con 2016
Technological innovations on the rise in and
beyond agriculture
Source: Thottathil, Jayasekaran, and Othman 2016, NIH 2018
While there have been significant advances in technology in and
beyond agriculture, technological regulation is a growing concern

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It is critical to reinforce the benefits of
multiple-win technologies for healthy
and sustainable agri-food systems

7. Shenggen Fan, February 2019 7
Photos: ICRISAT, HarvestPlus
Biofortification
• Vitamin- and mineral-rich crops grown and consumed in over
30 countries
• More than 30 million people are consuming one or more of
12 biofortified crops globally (HarvestPlus)
• Girls and boys consuming biofortified pearl millet in India saw
greater improvement in some cognitive performance (attention
and memory) than those consuming non-fortified millet (Scott et al. 2018)
Iron beans Vit. A maize Iron pearl
millet
Zinc wheat
Vit. A
cassava
Vit. A orange
sweet potato
Zinc rice
Nutrition-driven & nutrition-sensitive technologies
are crucial for health

8. Shenggen Fan, February 2019 8
Photos: RIICE, AgriLife, ICRISAT
 Remote-sensing technologies for enhanced resilience and resource
use efficiency
• Remote sensing-based Information and Insurance for Crops in Emerging economies
(RIICE) maps and observes rice growth in Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Thailand,
Vietnam to facilitate crop insurance and guard against crop failure
• Handheld crop sensor (Greenseeker) assessing plant nitrogen needs increased profit
by $37/hectare and avoided over 9,500 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions for wheat
farmers in Mexico (CIMMYT)
 Precision agriculture for sustainable yield enhancements
• Microdosing in Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso saw millet yields increase by over 50% &
better water absorption (ICRISAT)
 Improved, climate-resilient varieties
• Disease-resistant lentil varieties increased yields by 27% in Bangladesh (ICARDA)
• Cross-bred soy bean varieties in Brazil are more tolerant of acidic soil, shorter life
cycles contributes to greater yield
Key technologies can promote sustainability

9. Shenggen Fan, February 2019 9
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014
Modelling system for environmental impact of 11 agricultural technologies
No-till
Nitrogen-use
efficiency
Drought-tolerant
varieties
Heat-tolerant
varieties
Integrated soil fertility
management
Water harvesting
Precision agriculture Crop protection
Organic agriculture Drip irrigation
Sprinkler irrigation
Impact of sustainable intensification
technologies can be modelled

10. Shenggen Fan, February 2019 10
Source: WEF
 Alternative proteins to reduce GHGs, environmental impact, health risks
• Production of cultured meat involves up to 96% lower GHG emissions and water use, and
99% lower land use depending on conventional meat product compared
(Thottathil, Jayasekaran, and Othman 2016; Toumisto 2011)
 Gene sequencing and editing for seed improvements
• Can help produce more crops and increase farmer incomes
• Can also improve nutrition outcomes
 Big data and analytics to lower transaction costs, improve monitoring
(e.g. CGIAR Platform for Big Data in Agriculture 2017-2022)
• Platform to lead in organizing open data, convening partners, and demonstrating the power
of big data analytics
 Breeding programs to support developing countries
(e.g. CGIAR Excellence in Breeding Platform)
• Draws innovations from public and private sectors to provide access to cutting-edge tools,
services and best practices, training and practical advice
New & established technologies have great
potential to be scaled up

11. Shenggen Fan, February 2019 11
Photos: ICRAF, CCAFS
Source: CGIAR FTA 2018, CCAFS 2014
Farmer-led innovations can help reduce duration of food shortages
and severity of hunger, and contribute to household welfare
Planting basins to conserve water and improve food
supply
• Use of basins for maize helped a community farmers in Kenya
manage the drought season
Ever-green farming
• Integrating trees into food crop systems in Kenya has prevented soil
erosion, while enhancing nitrogen fixation and providing firewood,
timber, and animal fodder
Source: Tambo and Wunscher 2017
Farmer-led innovations are important complements

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Multiple-win technologies will be imperative to
go beyond business-as-usual,
but will require investments and effective regulations