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UNPD and IFPRI Seminar
Measuring poverty and food security in Egypt:
Current state and the potential of big data
26 Novemb...
Scenarios Set at the Strategic Level
Governance
Scenario
Integrated
Push
Women Empowerment
• Poverty drops to 11% in
2030
...
-)
All scenarios
Elusive SDG
targets e.g.
malnutrition (SDG
2.1.1), access to
wastewater collection
systems (SDG 6.3.1.a)
...
-)
All scenarios
Elusive SDG
targets e.g.
malnutrition (SDG
2.1.1), access to
wastewater collection
systems (SDG 6.3.1.a)
...
-)
All scenarios
Elusive SDG
targets e.g.
malnutrition (SDG
2.1.1), access to
wastewater collection
systems (SDG 6.3.1.a)
...
(-)
More carbon
emissions
Integrated Push:
+ 8% by 2030
+ 20% by 2050.
Only Women
scenario reduces it
by 2050.
ANALYTICAL ...
(-)
More carbon
emissions
Integrated Push:
+ 8% by 2030
+ 20% by 2050.
Only Women
scenario reduces it
by 2050.
(+++)
women...
(-)
More carbon
emissions
Integrated Push:
+ 8% by 2030
+ 20% by 2050.
Only Women
scenario reduces it
by 2050.
(+++)
women...
(-)
More carbon
emissions
Integrated Push:
+ 8% by 2030
+ 20% by 2050.
Only Women
scenario reduces it
by 2050.
(+++)
women...
(-)
More carbon
emissions
Integrated Push:
+ 8% by 2030
+ 20% by 2050.
Only Women
scenario reduces it
by 2050.
(+++)
women...
(-)
More carbon
emissions
Integrated Push:
+ 8% by 2030
+ 20% by 2050.
Only Women
scenario reduces it
by 2050.
(+++)
women...
(-)
More carbon
emissions
Integrated Push:
+ 8% by 2030
+ 20% by 2050.
Only Women
scenario reduces it
by 2050.
(+++)
women...
(-)
More carbon
emissions
Integrated Push:
+ 8% by 2030
+ 20% by 2050.
Only Women
scenario reduces it
by 2050.
(+++)
women...
Sylvain Merlen (UNDP) • 2019 IFPRI Egypt - UNDP Seminar "Measuring poverty and food security in Egypt"
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Sylvain Merlen (UNDP) • 2019 IFPRI Egypt - UNDP Seminar "Measuring poverty and food security in Egypt"

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As part of the seminar held by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in collaboration with UNDP "Measuring poverty and food security in Egypt: current state & the potential of big data"

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Sylvain Merlen (UNDP) • 2019 IFPRI Egypt - UNDP Seminar "Measuring poverty and food security in Egypt"

  1. 1. UNPD and IFPRI Seminar Measuring poverty and food security in Egypt: Current state and the potential of big data 26 November 2019 UNDP Presentation: Lessons learned from comprehensive modelling and long term forecasting
  2. 2. Scenarios Set at the Strategic Level Governance Scenario Integrated Push Women Empowerment • Poverty drops to 11% in 2030 • GDP/capita increase of 7% • Demographic dividend is 12% larger than current path in 2030 and 30% in 2040 Governance: • GDP increased by 6% more than current path; by 2050 • GDP 26% greater than current path and GDP/capita is 16% greater ; • labor productivity doubles from 2030 projected values; • $129 billion annual revenues ANALYTICAL FINDINGS Social Justice • Life expectancy grows; • Notable change in education attainments • Material mortality decrease • HDI rank improved to 100 in 2030 from 115 in 2017;
  3. 3. -) All scenarios Elusive SDG targets e.g. malnutrition (SDG 2.1.1), access to wastewater collection systems (SDG 6.3.1.a) and water scarcity (SDG indicator 6.4.2). (-) More carbon emissions Integrated Push: + 8% by 2030 + 20% by 2050. Only Women scenario reduces it by 2050. ANALYTICAL FINDINGS (+++) women, people, or governance scenarios (in that order) outperform the economics only scenario. Integrated Push scenario outperforms all the scenarios + Integrated policies double SDGs target achievements - Some puzzling blind spots SDS Indicator(s) Description Estimated 2015 Target Current Path Economic Development Social Justice Governance Women empowerment Integrated Push Current Path Economic Development Social Justice Governance Women empowerment Integrated Push Goal 1.End povertyin all its forms everywhere 1.2.1.b Percentage ofpopulation below$3.10(2011$PPP)perday;Lognormal 22.3 11.1 13.7 11.3 11.5 12.3 11 6.1 -23% -2% -4% -11% 1% 45% 1.1.1.b Percentofthe population livingon lessthan $1.90(2011USD)perday 1.3 0.65 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 -8% 23% 38% 23% 38% 85% Goal 2.End hunger,achievefood securityand improved nutrition and promotesustainableagriculture 2.1.1.a Percentage ofundernourished population 4.5 3 3.2 3 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.8 -7% 0% -3% -3% -3% 7% 2.2.2.a Percentage ofmalnutrition (weightforheight<-2SD)amongchildren under5 7 3 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.4 -97% -93% -90% -93% -93% -80% Goal 3.Ensurehealthylives and promotewell-beingfor all atall ages 3.2.2 Infantmortality rate (within firstyearofbirth)in deathsperthousand newborns 17.8 12 11.4 10.9 9.3 11.1 10.9 8.5 5% 9% 23% 8% 9% 29% 3.7.1 Contraception Use (percentoffertile women) 58.5 97 68.6 69.9 69 69.4 70 72.4 -29% -28% -29% -28% -28% -25% Goal 4.Ensureinclusiveand equitablequalityeducation and promotelifelonglearningopportunities for all 4.1.1.c Primary education grosscompletion rate -Total 97.7 97 100 100.5 100.5 100.3 100.5 101.7 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 5% 4.1.1.e Lowersecondary education graduation rate -Total 78.8 97 82.2 83.5 85.4 83.1 83.7 88.2 -15% -14% -12% -14% -14% -9% Goal 6.Ensureavailabilityand sustainablemanagementof water and sanitation for all 6.1.1 Percentage ofpeople with accessto safe water 98.8 97 99 99 100 99.1 99 100 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% 6.2.1 Percentage ofpeople with accessto sanitation services– Improved 50 97 94.8 94.9 97.6 95 94.9 97.8 -2% -2% 1% -2% -2% 1% 6.3.1.a Percentage ofpeople connected to wastewatercollection system 44.3 97 45.8 46 49.2 45.9 46.1 50.3 -53% -53% -49% -53% -52% -48% 6.4.2 Freshwaterwithdrawal asa percentage ofavailable freshwaterresources 148.8 74.4 138.5 138.5 138.5 138.6 138.3 138.3 -86% -86% -86% -86% -86% -86% Goal 7.Ensureaccess to affordable,reliable,sustainableand modern energyfor all 7 7.1.1 Percentage ofpopulation with accessto electricity -Total 99.7 97 99.9 99 100 99.1 98.9 100 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 3% Percentage of SDG target achieved (from this selection of 13targetsacross6SDGs) 31% 46% 46% 38% 46% 62% Current Path Economic Development Social Justice Governance Women empowerment Integrated Push 6 Forecasted values Deviation From Target SGDs 1 2 3 4
  4. 4. -) All scenarios Elusive SDG targets e.g. malnutrition (SDG 2.1.1), access to wastewater collection systems (SDG 6.3.1.a) and water scarcity (SDG indicator 6.4.2). (-) More carbon emissions Integrated Push: + 8% by 2030 + 20% by 2050. Only Women scenario reduces it by 2050. ANALYTICAL FINDINGS (+++) women, people, or governance scenarios (in that order) outperform the economics only scenario. Integrated Push scenario outperforms all the scenarios SDS Indicator(s)Description Estimated 2015 Target Current Path Economic Development Social Justice Governance Women empowerment Integrated Push Current Path Economic Development Social Justice Governance Women empowerment Integrated Push Goal 1.End povertyin all its forms everywhere 1.2.1.b Percentage of population below$3.10 (2011$ PPP) per day;Lognormal 22.3 11.1 13.7 11.3 11.5 12.3 11 6.1 -1 -23% -2% -4% -11% 1% 45% 1.1.1.b Percent of the population livingon less than $1.90 (2011 USD) per day 1.3 0.65 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 -1 -8% 23% 38% 23% 38% 85% 1.a.2a Percentage of total government spendingon essential services (education, health) 18 18.7 18.7 18.6 24 18.7 18.8 22.8 1 0% -1% 28% 0% 1% 22% 1.a.1b Transfers as a percent of GDP 16.9 17.1 17.1 17.2 18.7 17.1 17.3 19.7 1 0% 1% 9% 0% 1% 15% Goal 2.End hunger,achieve food securityand improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture 2.1.1.a Percentage of undernourished population 4.5 3 3.2 3 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.8 -1 -7% 0% -3% -3% -3% 7% 2.2.2.a Percentage of malnutrition (weight for height <-2 SD) amongchildren under 5 7 3 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.4 -1 -97% -93% -90% -93% -93% -80% 2.2.2c Severe acute malnutrition (weight for height <-3 SD) amongchildren under 5 4.8 1 3 2.8 2.9 2.1 2.6 1.6 -1 -200% -180% -190% -110% -160% -60% DeviationFromTarget SGDs Forecastedvalues 1 2
  5. 5. -) All scenarios Elusive SDG targets e.g. malnutrition (SDG 2.1.1), access to wastewater collection systems (SDG 6.3.1.a) and water scarcity (SDG indicator 6.4.2). (-) More carbon emissions Integrated Push: + 8% by 2030 + 20% by 2050. Only Women scenario reduces it by 2050. ANALYTICAL FINDINGS (+++) women, people, or governance scenarios (in that order) outperform the economics only scenario. Integrated Push scenario outperforms all the scenarios SDS Indicator(s) Description Estimated 2015 Target Current Path Economic Development Social Justice Governance Women empowerment Integrated Push Goal 1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere 1.2.1.b Percentage of population below $3.10 (2011$ PPP) per day; Lognormal 22.3 11.1 13.7 11.3 11.5 12.3 11 6.1 1.1.1.b Percent of the population living on less than $1.90 (2011 USD) per day 1.3 0.65 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.a.2a Percentage of total government spending on essential services (education, health) 18 18.7 18.7 18.6 24 18.7 18.8 22.8 1.a.1b Transfers as a percent of GDP 16.9 17.1 17.1 17.2 18.7 17.1 17.3 19.7 Goal 2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture 2.1.1.a Percentage of undernourished population 4.5 3 3.2 3 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.2.2.a Percentage of malnutrition (weight for height <-2 SD) among children under 5 7 3 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.4 2.2.2c Severe acute malnutrition (weight for height <-3 SD) among children under 5 4.8 1 3 2.8 2.9 2.1 2.6 1.6 SGDs Forecasted values 1 2
  6. 6. (-) More carbon emissions Integrated Push: + 8% by 2030 + 20% by 2050. Only Women scenario reduces it by 2050. ANALYTICAL FINDINGS (+++) women, people, or governance scenarios (in that order) outperform the economics only scenario. Integrated Push scenario outperforms all the scenarios SDS Indicator(s) Description Current Path Economic Development Social Justice Governance Women empowerment Integrated Push Goal 1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere 1.2.1.b Percentage of population below $3.10 (2011$ PPP) per day; Lognormal -23% -2% -4% -11% 1% 45% 1.1.1.b Percent of the population living on less than $1.90 (2011 USD) per day -8% 23% 38% 23% 38% 85% 1.a.2a Percentage of total government spending on essential services (education, health) 0% -1% 28% 0% 1% 22% 1.a.1b Transfers as a percent of GDP 0% 1% 9% 0% 1% 15% Goal 2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture 2.1.1.a Percentage of undernourished population -7% 0% -3% -3% -3% 7% 2.2.2.a Percentage of malnutrition (weight for height <-2 SD) among children under 5 -97% -93% -90% -93% -93% -80% 2.2.2c Severe acute malnutrition (weight for height <-3 SD) among children under 5 -200% -180% -190% -110% -160% -60% Deviation From Target SGDs 1 2
  7. 7. (-) More carbon emissions Integrated Push: + 8% by 2030 + 20% by 2050. Only Women scenario reduces it by 2050. (+++) women, people, or governance scenarios (in that order) outperform the economics only scenario. Integrated Push scenario outperforms all the scenarios ANALYTICAL FINDINGS (World Bank SDGs Diagnosis – 2018) Wasted Obese
  8. 8. (-) More carbon emissions Integrated Push: + 8% by 2030 + 20% by 2050. Only Women scenario reduces it by 2050. (+++) women, people, or governance scenarios (in that order) outperform the economics only scenario. Integrated Push scenario outperforms all the scenarios ANALYTICAL FINDINGS S o u rc e : Are we on the right path to achieve the sustainable development goals? Jonathan Moyer and Steve Hedden, Wo r l d D e v e l o p m e n t , Fo r t h co m i n g 2 0 2 0 ) Percent of countries achieving selected SDG indicator targets in 2015, 2030
  9. 9. (-) More carbon emissions Integrated Push: + 8% by 2030 + 20% by 2050. Only Women scenario reduces it by 2050. (+++) women, people, or governance scenarios (in that order) outperform the economics only scenario. Integrated Push scenario outperforms all the scenarios SUMMARY • Malnutrition, Poverty and to a lesser extent undernourishment not responding to various policy scenarios • Social justice scenario indicate social protection would help • But incomplete evidence of impact of social programmes on malnutrition
  10. 10. (-) More carbon emissions Integrated Push: + 8% by 2030 + 20% by 2050. Only Women scenario reduces it by 2050. (+++) women, people, or governance scenarios (in that order) outperform the economics only scenario. Integrated Push scenario outperforms all the scenarios MORE INQUIRY AND ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS ARE NEEDED • Mechanism at plat may not be purely economic • Egypt “puches below its weight” on malnutrition • Causes unclear: • Food systems? • Advocacy? • Early childhood support? • More analysis and Innovation needed • Big data?
  11. 11. (-) More carbon emissions Integrated Push: + 8% by 2030 + 20% by 2050. Only Women scenario reduces it by 2050. (+++) women, people, or governance scenarios (in that order) outperform the economics only scenario. Integrated Push scenario outperforms all the scenarios ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS ARE NEEDED
  12. 12. (-) More carbon emissions Integrated Push: + 8% by 2030 + 20% by 2050. Only Women scenario reduces it by 2050. (+++) women, people, or governance scenarios (in that order) outperform the economics only scenario. Integrated Push scenario outperforms all the scenarios ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS ARE NEEDED Item 2014 2015 2016 2017 Subscribers of Cell phone (million line) 95.84 93.50 96.25 99.50 Prevalence rate of cell phone (%) 112.19 107.47 108.64 110.34 Users of internet through cell phones (million users) 20.28 25.24 28.77 31.78
  13. 13. (-) More carbon emissions Integrated Push: + 8% by 2030 + 20% by 2050. Only Women scenario reduces it by 2050. (+++) women, people, or governance scenarios (in that order) outperform the economics only scenario. Integrated Push scenario outperforms all the scenarios ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS ARE NEEDED Big data? Sources: Mckinsey global institute, Twitter, Cisco, EMC, SAS, IBM, MEPTEC.

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