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Launching the Global Foresight for Food and Agriculture Tool

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Keith Wiebe, Shanila Dunston, Jim Woodhill, Steven Prager, and Ignacio Perez
Launching the Global Foresight for Food and Agriculture Tool
Co-Organized by the Food Security Portal, IFPRI, and the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)
DEC 18, 2019 - 10:00 AM TO 11:00 AM EST

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Launching the Global Foresight for Food and Agriculture Tool

  1. 1. Global Foresight Modeling for Food and Agriculture Results from the IMPACT Model Keith Wiebe k.wiebe@cigar.org International Food Policy Research Institute Washington DC, 18 December 2019
  2. 2. Exploring alternative futures to 2050 Scenarios of population, income, technology, climate, & policy
  3. 3. Collaboration in foresight modeling CGIAR foresight team AfricaRice, Bioversity, CIAT, CIFOR, CIMMYT, CIP, ICARDA, ICRAF, ICRISAT, IFPRI, IITA, ILRI, IRRI, IWMI, and WorldFish AgMIP PIK, Purdue, Wageningen, EC/JRC, IIASA, NIES, USDA/ERS, and others Other partners Oxford, CSIRO, World Bank, IFAD, ADB, NEDA, KREI, FAO, OECD, and others
  4. 4. The IMPACT system of models Increased investment in ● agricultural R&D ● irrigation and water-use efficiency ● improved access to markets
  5. 5. Live demo
  6. 6. Enhancing foresight for global food systems change Visit: www.foresight4food.net
  7. 7. Foresight and Scenarios in Simple Terms Scenario 1: Crocodile lunch Scenario 2: Lucky escape Scenario 3: Smooth ride Scenario 4: unseen dead end FORESIGHT
  8. 8. Food Systems Model Link to Blog and Diagram
  9. 9. Framework for Understanding Foresight Link to Framework Document
  10. 10. Food system foresight workshops in Ghana, Zambia and Nepal
  11. 11. Foresight should be demand driven… Three different examples of demand: Program Level – AVISA General Context and Decision Support – BID Specific Decision Support - WB
  12. 12. Climate Impacts in LAC
  13. 13. • Developed in conjunction with the World Bank, foresight analyses have served as both context and decision support information. Several more on the way.
  14. 14. The role of foresight tools in food and agriculture-related decision-making. Some examples at the European Commission Webinar Launching the Global Foresight for Food and Agriculture Tool Webinar, 18 December 2019 Ignacio Pérez Domínguez Joint Research Centre, Directorate D Sustainable Resources Unit D4 Economics of Agriculture
  15. 15. Economic model support to CAP Outlook Trade BioeconomyClimate Change
  16. 16. Operational Models for Foresight work CAPRI agriculture, static, EU-regional AGLINK-COSIMO agriculture, dynamic, global AGMEMOD agriculture, dynamic, EU Member States IFM-CAP agriculture, static, EU farms, supply MAGNET/GTAP all sectors, ag. focus, static, global GLOBIOM agriculture and forestry, global POLES energy, EU Member States hard link soft link iterative link
  17. 17. Climate Change and CAP: EcAMPA (Economic assessment of GHG mitigation policy options for EU agriculture) 20% emission target, no subsidies 20% emission target, 80% subsidies Domestic production Effects, Beef Supply, % change versus 2030 baseline
  18. 18. Climate Change: AGMIP & PESETA  JRC contribution to the AGMIP project (www.agmip.org)  PESETA: Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the EU based on bottom-up Analysis.  Main model used: CAPRI  Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: "business as usual" prospective view about the world, including assumptions about macroeconomic developments to 2050  Climate Change Effect: assessed through the potential effects on agricultural yields of a RCP8.5 (i.e. "high climate change") climate trajectories Pure biophysical effect Market-adjusted effect
  19. 19. The European Commission’s science and knowledge service Joint Research Centre THANK YOU ! ignacio.perez-dominguez@ec.europa.eu
  20. 20. Q & A