1. Food supply issues
taking account of
climate change and
sustainable use of
natural resources
Shenggen Fan
Director General
International Food Policy Research Institute
AARES Policy Session
Melbourne, Australia
February 13, 2019

2. Shenggen Fan, February 2019 2
Food systems play critical roles for human and
planetary health
We must reshape agri-food
systems to for human and
planetary health
Over half of SDGs relate to
food security and nutrition
Source: EAT-Lancet Report 2019

3. Shenggen Fan, February 2019 3Source: FAO 2018
Child nutrition status in Oceania
Source: GNR 2018
Adult overweight and obesity in Australia
Yet multiple burdens of malnutrition persist…
Prevalence and number of undernourished worldwide
Overweight Obesity
Under-5 stunting Under-5 overweight
38.136.8
22.2
32.6
8.7
4.7
5.6
4.9
70.9
62.1
58.1
49.5
29.6
19.3
28.4
19.9

4. Shenggen Fan, February 2019 4
Agriculture is
pushing planetary
boundaries, and
climate mitigation
requires drastic
transformation
Source: EAT-Lancet Report 2019
And our food systems threaten planetary health
 Shift to planetary health diet
 Reduce food loss and waste
 Improved production practices
• Standard level ambition (PROD)
• High level ambition (PROD+)
Source: EAT-Lancet Report 2019
Gt CO2-eq/yr M km2 M km3/yr Tg N/yr Tg P/yr E/MSY

5. Shenggen Fan, February 2019
5
Climate change increases population at risk
of hunger…
Source: Wiebe and Rosegrant 2015
Note: WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean;
MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa
Hunger in 2030 by climate and investment scenario

6. Shenggen Fan, February 2019
6
…and exacerbates risk of undernutrition
• Reduced fruit and vegetable
intake could cause twice as
many deaths as
undernourishment
• Majority of all climate-related
deaths due to food
production changes
estimated to occur in Asia
Climate-related deaths by risk factor (2050)

7. Shenggen Fan, February 2019
Global food supplies are increasingly
vulnerable
7

8. Shenggen Fan, February 2019
Major trends and challenges impacting
food supplies
Climate change and
environmental
unsustainability
Conflict, hunger, and
famine
Rapid population growth
and urbanization
Anti-globalization
8

9. Shenggen Fan, February 2019
9
Climate change impacts the global food
supply (1)
Source: IFPRI DSSAT simulations.
(HadGEM2, RCP 8.5)
Without adaption policy global maize yields projected
30% lower in 2050 compared to no climate change

10. Shenggen Fan, February 2019
10
Climate change impacts the global food
supply (2)
Impact of productivity growth on baseline rainfed yields
between 2005 and 2050 (% change)
Source: Robinson
et al. 2015
Note: Countries
covered for each
crop vary
Maize
No
CC
CC Difference
Climate & tech 124 74 50
Markets 96 56 40
Rice
Groundnut Cassava
No CC CC Difference
Climate & tech 43 25 18
Markets 29 15 14
No
CC
CC Difference
Climate & tech 31 19 12
Markets 17 8 9
No
CC
CC Difference
Climate & tech 33 16 17
Markets 22 9 13

11. Shenggen Fan, February 2019
11
Each degree of warming matters for food
production and other systems
Impacts and risks for selected natural, managed and human systems
IPCC 2018

12. Shenggen Fan, February 2019
Future food and nutrition needs must be
met sustainably
12

13. Shenggen Fan, February 2019
13
Food supplies must increase to feed a growing
population…
2010=1.0
Source: Wiebe and Rosegrant 2015
(SSP2, NoCC)
Growth in total global food demand Growth in global production of cereals and oilseeds
Cereals Oilseeds
(SSP2, NoCC)
Source: Wiebe and Rosegrant 2015
Note: SSP2, NoCC = Intermediate Challenges, business as usual (med-med)

14. Shenggen Fan, February 2019
14
…and food systems must be sustainable and
deliver nutritious foods
Source: WRI 2016
Under usual
technologies, beef and
other ruminants account
for
20 more times
the land use &
GHG emissions than
pulses per unit of protein
consumed
Environmental footprint of various foods

15. Shenggen Fan, February 2019
15
Meeting future food needs under climate change
requires food system transformation
Source: CCAFS 2018
Actions for transforming food systems under a changing climate

16. Shenggen Fan, February 2019
Innovations in policies, institutions, and
technologies
are key to achieving supply-side goals while maximizing
synergies and minimizing trade-offs
16

17. Shenggen Fan, February 2019 17
Reform agricultural subsidies to support production of
healthy and sustainable foods
 Support incomes of vulnerable groups and production of healthy foods
• Prices of nutrient-dense foods rising faster than energy-dense, nutrient-
poor foods (Dizon and Herforth 2018)
• Foods rich in protein and micronutrients are expensive, particularly in
low-income countries (Headey 2017)
Increase investment for R&D in more nutritious foods like
fruits, vegetables, beans, dairy, and fish
 Consuming dairy, eggs, and meat/fish associated with over 6 percentage pt.
drop in stunting rates among children in 49 countries across 5 regions
(Headey, Hirvonen, and Hoddinott 2018)
Reprioritize investment priorities &
reform subsidy policies
Reform policies to increase availability and
affordability of nutritious foods (1)
Source: Headey 2017
Fortified infant cereal
Cheapest dark leafy green
Food prices compared to staple cereals
(calorie price ratio)

18. Shenggen Fan, February 2019 18
Reform policies to increase availability and
affordability of nutritious foods (2)
Enhance nutrition-targeted social protection
 Combining transfer programs with behavior change communication
can improve child nutrition
• In Bangladesh, cash transfers accompanied by high-quality BCC improved
children’s consumption of multiple-micronutrient powders or iron supplements in the last week by 22 percentage pts (Hoddinott et al. 2018)
 BUT requires complementary policies and programs to link knowledge and behavior (Kramer 2017, Menon et al. 2017)
Tax carbon-intensive and nutrient-poor foods
 Tax emissions-intensive foods (e.g. meat and dairy)
• Avoid more than 100,000 deaths in 2020 from reduced dietary and weight-
related risk factors (Springmann et al. 2016)
 Tax nutrient-poor foods – e.g. Mexico’s sugar sweetened beverage (SSB) tax
• SSB purchase declined by 6% on average
• 9% decline for lower social economic status households
Promote nutritious, sustainable, and healthy diets
Source: Colchero et al. 2016
Impact of SSB tax in Mexico

19. Shenggen Fan, February 2019 19
Support inclusive institutions & strengthen
accountability (1)
Strengthen institutions to close gender gaps
Reform institutions and governance to ensure women’s empowerment
 Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) measures gender parity in:
• Decisions about agricultural production
• Access to and decision-making power over productive resources
• Control over use of income
• Leadership in the community
• Time use
Strengthen resource rights
 Rwanda: Land registration programs doubled likelihood of household investment
in longer-term natural resource management, such as soil conservation
(Meinzen-Dick et al. 2017)
Photo: USAID

20. Shenggen Fan, February 2019 20
Support inclusive institutions & strengthen
accountability (2)
Enhance institutional capacity on nutrition
Support capacity building on nutrition for universities, government
agencies, and extension services
 Improving institutional capacity on nutrition can help address nutrition-related information
asymmetry and facilitate access to necessary assets for households (Davis, Babu, and Blom 2014)
 India: Review agricultural curriculum to include nutrition for extension officers (Babu et al. 2016)
Promote partnerships for climate-smart adaption
E.g. Adaptation of African Agriculture (AAA) Initiative
• Aims to enable all in agri-food value chain to increase productivity, improve
resilience, manage natural resources more sustainably, and contribute to food
security and nutrition
Source: NEPAD 2015
Support climate-friendly financial arrangements
E.g. Adaption for Smallholder Agriculture Programme (ASAP)
• Gives smallholders access to climate finance that promotes adaptation

21. Shenggen Fan, February 2019 21
Model impact of sustainable intensification
technologies
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014
Modelling system for environmental impact of 11 agricultural technologies
No-till
Nitrogen-use
efficiency
Drought-tolerant
varieties
Heat-tolerant
varieties
Integrated soil fertility
management
Water harvesting
Precision agriculture Crop protection
Organic agriculture Drip irrigation
Sprinkler irrigation

22. Shenggen Fan, February 2019 22Photos: RIICE, ICRISAT, HarvestPlus
 Remote-sensing technologies for enhanced resilience
• Remote sensing-based Information and Insurance for Crops in Emerging economies
(RIICE) maps and observes rice growth in Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam
to facilitate crop insurance and guard against crop failure
 Precision agriculture for sustainable yield enhancements
• Microdosing in Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso saw millet yields increase by over 50% & better
water absorption (ICRISAT)
 Improved, climate-resilient varieties
• Disease-resistant lentil varieties increased yields by 27% in Bangladesh (ICARDA)
 Nutrition-driven, nutrition-sensitive technologies (e.g. Biofortification)
• More than 30 million people are consuming one or more of 12 vitamin- and mineral-rich,
biofortified crops globally (HarvestPlus)
Promote multiple-win technologies (1)
Invest in evidence-based technologies

23. Shenggen Fan, February 2019 23
Figures and Photos: WEF, NIH 2018
 Alternative proteins to reduce GHGs, environmental impact, health risks
• Production of cultured meat involves up to 96% lower GHG emissions and water
use, and 99% lower land use depending on conventional meat product compared
(Thottathil, Jayasekaran, and Othman 2016; Toumisto 2011)
 Gene sequencing and editing for seed improvements
• Sequenced crop genomes could improve agriculture in challenging climates
 Big data and analytics to lower transaction costs, improve monitoring
(e.g. CGIAR Platform for Big Data in Agriculture 2017-2022)
• Platform to lead in organizing open data, convening partners, and demonstrating the
power of big data analytics
 Empower breeding programs targeting developing countries
(e.g. CGIAR Excellence in Breeding Platform)
• Draws innovations from public and private sectors to provide access to cutting-edge
tools, services and best practices, training and practical advice
Scale up new & established multiple-win technologies
Promote multiple-win technologies (1)

24. Shenggen Fan, February 2019
Mutual learning for human
and planetary health
24
Support South-South Learning
 Share key experiences on what has worked and what has
not worked
 Promote technology transfer
 Contribute to capacity building
 Improve infrastructure in developing countries
Enhance global and regional cooperation
and learning efforts
 Explore new modalities beyond traditional bilateral
cooperation
Engage in global governance in
agriculture and food