Food Security : Crises and Resilience
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Johan Swinnen CGIAR SEMINAR SERIES Food Security Trends and Resilience-Building Priorities Co-organized by IFPRI, the CGIAR, and Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) SEP 1, 2023 - 9:00 TO 10:30AM EDT
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Food Security : Crises and Resilience
- 1. Food Security : Crises and Resilience Johan Swinnen CGIAR Seminar Series: Food Security Trends and Resilience-Building Priorities September 2023
- 2. From June 2013 … Towards the end of hunger … ? 13 7.8 796 572 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Millions Percentage Prevalence of undernourishment (percent) Number of people undernourished (million)
- 3. From June 2013 … Towards the end of hunger … ? 13 7.8 8 9.8 796 572 618 768 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Millions Percentage Prevalence of undernourishment (percent) Number of people undernourished (million)
- 4. Triple burden of malnutrition Coexistence of undernutrition, micronutrient deficiencies, and overweight and obesity Source: Popkin et al. 2020 Countries with both undernutrition and overweight, 2010 Source: Ruel 2019, Leroy 2019, Van Wesenbeeck et al. 2018 • 3 billion people cannot afford a healthy diet • 2 billion people have micronutrient deficiencies • 2 billion people are overweight or obese • A third of LMI countries face undernutrition and obesity
- 5. Climate change and food security Climate change impact increasing Up to 21% reduction in agricultural productivity growth since 1961 Contributor of food crises for >20 million people in 2021 Drought is the single greatest cause of agricultural production loss, responsible for… Over 34% of loss in low- and middle-income countries US$30 billion of costs to the agricultural sector overall Source: FAO 2021 0 50 100 150 200 250 1900 1906 1913 1918 1923 1928 1933 1938 1943 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 Trends in extreme weather events, droughts, and floods, 1900–2022 Extreme weather events Drought Flood
- 6. COVID-19 impacts on global poverty and nutrition Source: Laborde, Martin and Vos, 2020 Impact on Global POVERTY Impact on Global NUTRITION 149.7 50.5 72.5 20% 15% 27% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 World Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Percentage change poor (%) Change number of poor (millions) Change in No. of Poor (millions) Change in %
- 7. Conflict, migration, and food crises Almost 200 million people across 53 countries experienced a food crisis or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above) in 2021. The cause : Source: Global Report on Food Crisis 2021, FSIN, GRFC May 2021
- 8. Trade restrictions raise global prices On July 17th, Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative. 3 days later, India banned exports of non-basmati rice.
- 9. Compounding shocks and volatility: the new normal ? Price volatility 2000-2022
- 10. Resilience and innovation Many innovations in value chains as crisis response: Private – public Global -- local Labor -- capital intensity Large -- small-scale Short -- long run Staples – perishables E.g. Digital growth : e-commerce & ICT solutions
- 11. • Special Blog Series • Special Indicator Series • Food and Fertilizer Export Restrictions Tracker • Excessive Food Price Volatility Early Warning System • Staple Food Stock-Use Monitoring System • Vulnerability Dashboard • Fertilizer Market Dashboard Thank you for your attention. For more information, see: www.ifpri.org
Hinweis der Redaktion
- I am delighted to welcome all of you to the seminar on food security trends and resilience-building priorities. This is the first seminar in the CGIAR series on strengthening food systems resilience, which IFPRI is delighted to coordinate. The world has been undergoing several overlapping crises in recent years: extreme weather events are increasing, COVID-19 impacted food systems around the world, and conflict in Ukraine and other regions has led to food security concerns and worsening nutritional outcomes. I would like to briefly review where we find ourselves today, and outline that many food security indicators are going in the wrong direction, putting the world at serious risk of not meeting Sustainable Development Goal 2 of zero hunger, as well as a number of other SDGs. Examining the impact of past crises, and bearing in mind that the world may be subject to more frequent crises, requires that we double down on strengthening food systems so they are less vulnerable to shocks. Germany, also as past chair of the G7, has been actively involved in crisis response, but understands very well the urgent need to build food systems resilience. CGIAR is pleased to partner with BMZ in this series. This series will run through the summer of 2024, when Germany will mark 50 years of support to CGIAR, a global research partnership for a food-secure future dedicated to transforming food, land, and water systems in a climate crisis. This long-standing partnership has been essential to our ability to carry out high-quality food systems research and innovation across the globe. We thank the government of Germany for its strong support of food systems transformation. We have a great lineup of speakers today from BMZ, IITA, IFPRI and the World Bank. They will be examining the evidence base for priorities and approaches that can build up resilience, in light of current food security trends. I am particularly pleased to welcome CGIAR’s new Director for Continental Africa, Simeon Ehui, who also serves as the DG of IITA. He will speak to us about how CGIAR works with our African partners towards strengthened food systems across Africa. Great to have the WB here, with Martien van Nieuwkoop presenting on the important topic of financing greater resilience. Two of our speakers are featured in IFPRI’s 2023 Global Food Policy Report on “Rethinking Crisis Response”: Katrina Kosec also heads the CGIAR Research Initiative on Fragility, Conflict and Migration, and will present evidence to map efforts towards increased resilience. Lynn Brown of HarvestPlus will speak to the crucial role of equity in resilience building.
- The progress the world has made against hunger and malnutrition has begun to reverse in recent years. The number of undernourished people now stands at almost 800 million.
- The progress the world has made against hunger and malnutrition has begun to reverse in recent years. The number of undernourished people now stands at almost 800 million.
- An astounding 3 billion people are unable to afford a healthy diet. 2 billion people have micronutrient deficiencies. At the same time, 2 billion people are overweight or obese. We call this coexistence of undernutrition, micronutrient deficiencies, and obesity the “triple burden of malnutrition.”
- Globally, we have already seen climate change significantly impact agricultural productivity and food security. Drought is the single greatest cause of agricultural production loss, responsible for over 34% of loss in low- and middle-income countries. (Link) (From GFPR Launch PPT) Climate change one of biggest challenges for food systems driving displacement in the global south destruction of homes and infrastructure, and loss of property and income Increase in climate-related food-borne, water-borne, and vector-borne diseases Adverse effects on gender and social equity.
- According to IFPRI research, the second C, COVID-19, caused the number of people in poverty to increase by 20% globally. South Asia was most affected, with a 27% increase. (Impacts of COVID‐19 on global poverty, food security, and diets: Insights from global model scenario analysis - Laborde - 2021 - Agricultural Economics - Wiley Online Library) COVID also had devastating effects on global nutrition. Average household consumption of fruits and vegetables decreased by almost 8%, as did the consumption of animal products. Many households coped by substituting nutritious foods with more affordable staples. (From Idaho CCC PPT) Demand fallout: (i) impact on food access (refer to income impacts and poverty effects from our global scenario analysis) ***The numbers in the poverty figure are different from those in the source article. The researchers have since run an improved model with the numbers reported here. Most updated data can be found in COVID-19 and global food security: Two years later | IFPRI : International Food Policy Research Institute.
- The third C, conflict, has always negatively affected food security, and recent conflicts have seen this effect magnified. According to FSIN’s Global Report on Food Crisis, in 2021, almost 140 million people experienced a food crisis caused by conflict or insecurity, up from 74 million in 2018.
- That number is likely higher since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Food prices were at historic highs before the crisis began and have been affected by decreased exports from Ukraine and Russia, each of which produce about 6% of the global market share in calories. The Black Sea Grain Initiative, which allowed Ukraine to export 33 million metric tons of agricultural products, mostly to developing countries, helped sustain global food supplies. (End of the Black Sea Grain Initiative: Implications for sub-Saharan Africa | IFPRI : International Food Policy Research Institute) However, on July 17, after the initiative had been in place for almost a year, Russia withdrew from the deal. This will likely result in significantly reduced wheat exports from Ukraine and higher global prices. The situation is exacerbated by trade restrictions imposed by other countries. On July 20, India announced a ban on all exports of non-basmati rice. As Indian rice exports account for 40% of the global total, this move will influence rice prices, which have already risen 15%-20% in the past year, according to World Bank data. (India’s new ban on rice exports: Potential threats to global supply, prices, and food security | IFPRI : International Food Policy Research Institute)
- Globally, we have already seen climate change significantly impact agricultural productivity and food security. Drought is the single greatest cause of agricultural production loss, responsible for over 34% of loss in low- and middle-income countries. (Link) (From GFPR Launch PPT) Climate change one of biggest challenges for food systems driving displacement in the global south destruction of homes and infrastructure, and loss of property and income Increase in climate-related food-borne, water-borne, and vector-borne diseases Adverse effects on gender and social equity.
- Globally, we have already seen climate change significantly impact agricultural productivity and food security. Drought is the single greatest cause of agricultural production loss, responsible for over 34% of loss in low- and middle-income countries. (Link) (From GFPR Launch PPT) Climate change one of biggest challenges for food systems driving displacement in the global south destruction of homes and infrastructure, and loss of property and income Increase in climate-related food-borne, water-borne, and vector-borne diseases Adverse effects on gender and social equity.
- Thank you, and I wish you great and insightful presentations and discussions.