Lensa Omune and Juneweenex Mbuthia GLOBAL FOOD POLICY REPORT Kenya Discussion of IFPRI’s 2023 Global Food Policy Report: Rethinking Food Crisis Responses In collaboration with University of Nairobi and part of the CGIAR Initiative on National Policies and Strategies (NPS) Seminar Series IFPRI Kenya MAY 19, 2023 - 7:00 TO 9:00AM EDT

1. FOOD CRISIS
RESPONSE-AFRICA
REGION
Lensa Omune (Research Officer), Juneweenex Mbuthia (Research officer)
University of Nairobi Public Lecture
19 May 2023

2. www.cgiar.org
Outline of the Presentation
Global Food Policy Report-Africa Region Findings
Impacts of Russia-Ukraine Conflict in Kenya
Impacts of implementing the Bottom-Up
Economic Plan on food systems and social
outcomes

3. Africa: 20% of population are facing food insecurity and undernourished
 Significant variation across regions and countries
o Central and southern Africa most affected, followed by eastern and western Africa
o Countries with largest number of people affected: DRC, Ethiopia, Nigeria
o Countries with largest share of population affected: South Sudan, Angola
Overall, the share affected in Africa is more than double the share in any other world region
Share of population in crisis or worse, 2021
Number of people in crisis or worse, 2021
Source: 2022
Global Report on
Food Security
(adopted from Benin 2023)

4.  Main drivers: conflict, weather shocks (esp. droughts & floods),
and poverty, all of which affect the demand, supply, and
availability of food
 Extreme weather-related pests have worsened the situation
o Fall armyworm plague that started in 2016 in western Africa
o Locust infestation across eastern Africa in 2020
 Agricultural policies have also contributed
o Policy support favor ag. exports (whose prices have been
declining) over food commodities consumed (whose prices have
been rising)
o Declining export prices  lower foreign exchange receipts/income
o Rising food prices  higher food import bills
o Lower foreign exchange + higher food imports  declining
investment in food systems and other key public goods/services
 Other shocks: Ebola, Covid-19 pandemic, Russia-Ukraine war
 Incidence and severity of these drivers and shocks vary across
the continent
Fall
army
worm
Drivers of food crises in Africa
El Niño & La Niña
(adopted from Benin 2023)

5. Gendered effects of food crises in Africa
 Food crises affect women and men and boys and girls differently due to
norms and cultural practices that lead to different roles, responsibilities,
and access to resources and coping strategies
 Price shocks in several countries during Covid-19 pandemic: 33% of
women vs. 30% of men affected
 Job loss in South Africa during Covid-19 pandemic: two-thirds were
women
 Loss of trader incomes in Sierra Leone & Liberia during Ebola: 85%
were women
 These exacerbate other negative impacts for women and girls, such as
violence and sexually transmitted infections
 Ebola outbreak in DRC: increase sexual and domestic violence
 Ebola outbreak in Guinea: 4.5% increase in violence against women
 Higher rates of chronic malnutrition among pregnant women and children
in armed conflict areas (e.g., Burundi, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Eritrea,
Nigeria, Rwanda, and Somalia)
(adopted from Benin 2023)

6. Impacts of Russia-Ukraine
Conflict in Kenya

7. Kenya | Russia-Ukraine Conflict Impacts
Foresight and Metrics to
Accelerate Food, Land
and Water Systems
Transformation
National Policies and
Strategies for Food, Land
and Water Systems
Transformation
Country partners
• Kenya Institute for public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA)
• Ministry of Agriculture ,Livestock, Fisheries and Co-operatives (MoALF)
• Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS)
• Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO)
• Tegemeo Institute
Stakeholder engagements
• CoPP workshop to discuss assumptions and scenarios
• Policy consultations with MALFC especially on fertilizer policies
• Public dissemination seminar jointly with KIPPRA
↑ 450,000 Poor population
Food price shock also has a large impact
on food security
↑ 680,000 Poor population
↑ 550,000 Undernourished population
Fertilizer price shock has the largest
impact on poverty and food security, and
disrupts agri-food systems
↓ $230 million Agri-food system GDP
IFPRI-Kenya https://www.ifpri.org/program/kenya-strategy-support-program

8. Results | GDP and Employment
• National GDP and employment declines
• Negative terms-of-trade shock
(i.e., negative effect of higher import prices outweighs positive
effect of higher export prices)
• Rising import costs reduces spending on
domestically produced goods
• Falling production leads to job losses
• Impacts occur throughout the economy
• Agri-food system GDP and employment also fall
• GDP declines in both primary agriculture and off-
farm agri-food sectors (e.g., processing, trading)
• Larger GDP declines in agriculture (equal to 30% of
overall GDP losses in the country)
• Faster job losses in off-farm sectors, especially in
food-related services, incl. trade and transport
Source: IFPRI Kenya RIAPA Model
Contribution to total change
GDP
Jobs
-0.8%
-1.0%
-1.1%
-0.7%
-0.8%
-2.6%
-2.1%
-1.8%
-4.7%
-3.2%
Whole economy
Whole AFS
Agriculture
Off-farm
OutsideAFS
Agri-food
system
Change in GDP and employment due to
food, fuel and fertilizer shocks (%)
GDP Employment
30%
9%
60%
Agriculture
Off-farm
Outside AFS
37%
13%
51%
Foresight and Metrics to
Accelerate Food, Land
and Water Systems
Transformation
National Policies and
Strategies for Food, Land
and Water Systems
Transformation

9. Results | Household Consumption
Source: IFPRI Kenya RIAPA Model
• Household consumption falls significantly
• Larger than GDP losses as production shifts to exports to
cover import costs & in response to real exchange rate
• Rising food prices is a more important driver of
consumption losses than for GDP losses
• Importance of shocks differs across population groups:
• Fertilizer shocks important for rural and poor households
• Rely more on farm incomes
• Consume more domestically-produced foods
• Fuel shocks important for urban and nonpoor households
• Earn more income outside the agri-food system
• More import-intensive consumer basket
• Consume products with larger transaction cost margins
• Food prices affect all households
• Higher food consumption share for poor households, means
slightly larger impacts
Contribution
to change
-0.8%
-0.7%
-0.8%
-1.0%
-0.7%
-1.1%
-0.8%
-1.2%
-0.7%
-1.1%
-0.7%
-1.7%
-2.0%
-0.5%
-2.5%
-3.2%
-2.1%
-3.7%
-2.4%
National
Rural
Urban
Poor
Nonpoor
Percentage change in real consumption
Food prices Fuel prices Fertilizer prices & response
30%
42%
28%

10. Impacts of implementing the
Bottom-Up Economic Plan on
food systems and social
outcomes

11. Headlines | Macroeconomy
• Economy grows much faster under Bottom-Up Plan
• Total GDP growth rises from 4.8% to 7.2% per year
• Private and public consumption demand grows slower
than GDP
• Leads to falling consumer prices (CPI)
• Investment growth accelerates
• Doubling base-run growth rate
• Capital supply grows much faster than land or labor
• Trade position improves significantly
• Stronger export growth (relative to imports)
• Economy reorients towards exports and investment
• Goal of Bottom-Up Plan
Growth Under Base-Run and Accelerated
Growth Scenarios
(average annual growth rate, 2022-2027)
4.8%
4.8%
4.5%
3.9%
5.6%
4.0%
-0.8%
7.2%
5.9%
6.0%
8.1%
11.3%
5.5%
-1.2%
Total GDP
Consumption
Government
Investment
Exports
Imports
CPI
Base-run Accelerated growth
Foresight and Metrics to
Accelerate Food, Land
and Water Systems
Transformation
National Policies and
Strategies for Food, Land
and Water Systems
Transformation

12. Headlines | Sector GDP growth
• Growth accelerates in all broad economic sectors
• About additional 2-3%-points growth rates
• Relatively larger accelerations in agriculture (“bottom-up”)
• Economy continues to undergo structural change
• Slower growth (in absolute terms) in agriculture that has lower
productivity
• Faster growth in manufacturing that has higher productivity
GDP Growth Under Base-Run and Accelerated
Growth Scenarios
(average annual growth rate, 2022-2027)
4.9%
3.4%
3.2%
4.4%
4.9%
5.6%
5.4%
7.4%
5.6%
5.3%
7.1%
8.3%
8.9%
7.9%
Total GDP
Agriculture
Crops
Livestock
Industry
Manufacturing
Services
Base-run Accelerated growth
Foresight and Metrics to
Accelerate Food, Land
and Water Systems
Transformation
National Policies and
Strategies for Food, Land
and Water Systems
Transformation

13. Headlines | Household Impacts
• Incomes and employment rises with accelerated growth
• GDP per capita increases $280 (30,700 KSh) by 2027 ($540
vs. $260)
• Additional 700,000 jobs created (4.3 mil. vs. 5.0 mil.)
• Rising incomes reduce poverty
• 2.8 million fewer poor people by 2027 (see poverty headcount)
• Growth benefits poorest of the poor (see poverty gap)
• Food security also improves
• 1.5 million fewer undernourished people (see hunger
headcount)
• Diet deprivation declines (i.e., gap between household-level
consumption and healthy reference diet, based on six major food groups)
• Bottom-Up Plan is consistent with its goals
• Faster growth and job creation
• Reduced poverty, hunger, and cost-of-living
Poverty and Food Security Outcomes Under
Base-Run and Accelerated Growth Scenarios
(change in outcomes, 2022-2027)
0.26
4.3
-1.46
-0.55
-0.82
-0.90
0.54
5.0
-2.35
-0.85
-1.30
-1.68
GDP per capita ($1000)
Jobs created (millions)
Headcount (%-point)
Gap (%-point)
Hunger headcount (%-point)
Diet deprivation (ReDD)
Poverty
Food
security
Base-run Accelerated growth

14. www.cgiar.org