Prepared by Dalia Elsabbagh1, Mariam Raouf1, Manfred Wiebelt2 1. International Food Policy Research Institute 2. Kiel Institute for the World Economy Last updated: 2 September 2020

1. Dalia Elsabbagh1, Mariam Raouf1, Manfred Wiebelt2
1. International Food Policy Research Institute
2. Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Last updated: 2 September 2020
Contact: Dalia Elsabbagh (d.elsabbagh@cgiar.org) or Mariam Raouf (m.raouf@cgiar.org)
COVID-19 in Jordan
Impacts on Production, Household Income &
Food Systems
Financial support from
We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which made this study possible under
the project “Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity” (EIBC) that is implemented by IFPRI. The information provided in this paper is not official U.S.
government information and does not represent the views or positions of the United States Agency for International Development or the U.S. Government.
Any opinions stated herein are those of the authors and are not necessarily representative of or endorsed by IFPRI and the Ministry of Planning and
Economic Development.

2. Lockdown Imposes Heavy Economic Costs
• National GDP is estimated to fall by
22.6% during a 10-week lockdown
(around US$ 0.9 bil. in lost GDP)
• Food system is adversely affected by
falling consumer & export demand
(38.4% agri-food GDP decline, despite
exemptions)
Source: Jordan SAM Multiplier Results
Economic impacts during
a 10-week lockdown
period
22.6
38.4
0.9
Percentage
decline in
national GDP
Percentage
decline in agri-
food system GDP
Decline in
national GDP in
US$ billions

3. COVID-19 Outbreak &
Lockdown Policies in Jordan
1

4. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
First confirmed
case in Jordan
The defense law was activated:
• Enforce strict curfews, close businesses, and
restrict people movement within the country
• Launch of a public awareness campaign to
inform the public on examination and
treatment facilities
• Allowing only food and dairy industries and
some export-oriented industries to continue
operating
• Air travel restricted
• Trading on Amman Stock exchange was
suspended till May 10, 2020
• The Central Bank of Jordan allowed delayed
payments of loan instalments by companies;
& reduced the interest rate
Private-sector allowed to defer part
of the social security contributions
starting from 1 March 2020 for up to
three months, decreasing to a rate
of 5.25%
suspends all
court dates,
appointments
for lawsuits and
prosecutions
• Prime Minister established a
coronavirus relief fund "Himmat
Watan", to which local and foreign
donations will be deposited to
support the Kingdom’s efforts to
eradicate COVID-19.
• Allocated additional JD 50 million for
purchases of health equipment and
supplies
• Institution of a temporary cash
transfer program for the
unemployed and self-employed - JD
81 million
Start of phase-out easing of the
lockdown started:
• April 6: factories located in
industrial zones were allowed to
resume operations
• April 17: organizing schools and
university education, and
vocational training and student
evaluation mechanisms remotely
• April 21: work partly resuming for
selected sectors
• April 30: resumption of most
commercial activities • Jordan lifted most
lockdown measures
• Government allowed
companies in hard-hit
sectors to cut employees’
May and June salaries by
30%
• Transport between
governorates resume, night
curfews shortened, hotels and
cafes can re-open, along with
sporting events with no
spectator effective
• Operation of “Aman”
application alerting users
when they meet someone who
has COVID-19
Air travel arrival restricted except for
residents and 20 announced countries
residence who have medical
certificate test, and a full medical
insurance coverage
COVID-19 Cases & Policy Timeline

5. Sectors Affected by Lockdown Policies (1)
Sector Lockdown restrictions or exemptions in targeted regions Directly Affected?
Agriculture
• Movement restrictions occurring at start of planting season
• Suspended development projects
Some
Mining & crude oil
• Continuing to operate (essential sector)
• Lower oil prices & export demand (small supply effects to date)
Minimal
Manufacturing
• Food processing & medicines exempted (essential sector)
• Nonfood producing companies closed
• Port congestion constraining access to inputs
Some
Utilities • Electricity & water distribution exempted (essential sector) Minimal
Construction
Nationwide
• Many public works programs reduced in affected areas
• Local curfews & border closures reducing activity elsewhere
Some
Wholesale & retail
trade services
• Retailers of essential goods exempted (but 10am-2pm trading times)
• Wholesale not exempted
Some
Transportation,
storage & cargo
Nationwide
• Rail & air travel closed; freight transport partly restricted
• Demand for urban passenger transit reduced
• Port cargo handling & storage exempted
Some
Hotels & food
services
Nationwide
• Restaurant dining banned or severely limited
• Limited delivery options for food or other products
High

6. Sectors Affected by Lockdown Policies (2)
Sector Lockdown restrictions or exemptions in targeted regions Directly Affected?
Banking, finance &
insurance
• Money transfer services exempted (essential)
• Banks operating with essential staff only
• Other financial institutions closed or teleworking (e.g., insurance)
Minimal
Professional &
business services
• Almost all closed or teleworking (e.g., legal, accounting services)
• Activities involving in-person field visits affected (e.g., engineers)
Some
Public admin &
law enforcement
• Public services & agencies remain open, but most staff teleworking
• Public & private security services exempted (essential)
Some
Education services
• Nationwide
• All public schools closed without much scope for online delivery
• Private schools closed with some online materials
Health services
• Health services exempted (essential)
• Elective operations reduced but rising number of COVID patients
Minimal
Sports &
entertainment
Nationwide
• Most sports & outdoor entertainment banned
• Some activities operating (e.g., newspapers, radio & TV)
Some
Other services
• Domestic workers cannot commute, but live-in workers less affected
• In-person religious gatherings banned
• Major disruptions to informal repair firms due to market closures
Some

7. Global & Other Nationwide Shocks
Sector Lockdown restrictions or exemptions in targeted regions Directly Affected?
Export demand
Nationwide
• Sizable decline in demand for agricultural exports
• Reduced international tourism & business travel to Nigeria
High
Remittances
Nationwide
• Declines in the value of remittances sent by national working abroad
Some
Government
revenues
Nationwide
• Fall in tax revenues due to decline in economic activity
• Lower trade tax collections due to reduced import demand
Some
See detailed sector-level assumptions about production &
demand shocks in Annex at the end of slide deck

8. Measuring Economic Impacts
2

9. Economywide Multiplier Analysis
• Lockdown policies & shocks have direct impacts on the operation
of certain sectors
(e.g., closing businesses, restricting travel, etc.)
• But it also generates indirect impacts on other sectors involved in
supply chains
(i.e., input suppliers & downstream users)
• Multiplier analysis uses sector input-output data to measure
direct & indirect impacts throughout & across supply chains
(incl. impacts on GDP, jobs & household incomes)
• Jordan model based on 2015 SAM & 2013 household survey data
(results scaled to 2019 GDP & employment levels)

10. Impact Channels & Shocks
• Lockdowns are simulated using a
range of impact channels
• Shocks to each channel are imposed on
the model & impacts are simultaneously
traced across all supply chains
• Multiplier model separates entire
Jordanian economy into 86 sectors
(shocks are calculated bottom-up using
supply-use data for 84 goods & services)
• Size of shocks is estimated by IFPRI’s
in-country staff & collaborators
(see Annex)
Impact channels used to replicate lockdowns
1 Direct restrictions on farming
2 Limiting mining operations
3 Closing non-essential manufacturing operations
4 Disruptions to energy and water supply
5 Limiting construction activities
6 Closing non-essential wholesale/retail trade
7 Transport/travel restrictions
8 Closing hotels, bars and restaurants
9 Closing non-essential business services
10 Government work-from-home orders
11 Closing all schools in the country
12 Disruptions to hospitals and clinics
13 Banning sports & other entertainment
14 Domestic workers & other services
15 Reduced export demand
16 Falling foreign remittances
17 Falling government revenues

11. Scenarios
1. Impacts during only the full lockdown period
• In Jordan this is 10 weeks running late-March to end of May
2. Impacts for rest of 2020 as lockdowns are lifted each quarter
• We will compare a faster vs. slower easing of restrictions
1
2
Lockdown Period
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Easing Restrictions in Q2 and Q3
Further Easing of Restrictions in
Q4

12. Economic Impacts During the
Ongoing Lockdown Period
3

13. GDP Losses During Lockdown
National GDP drops 22.6% during the 10 weeks lockdown
(most economic losses occur in the industry & services sectors)
Source: Jordan SAM Multiplier Results
Change in total GDP during
lockdown period (%)
Change in total GDP by duration of
lockdown (US$ mil.)
-22.6%
-16.6%
-14.0%
-29.5%
Total Agriculture Industry Services
-$906.5
-$26.9
-$229.8
-$649.9
Total Agriculture Industry Services

14. Sources of GDP Losses
Reduced export demand accounts for around half of GDP losses
Contribution of lockdown restrictions & shocks to
loss in total GDP during lockdown (sums to 100%)
(mainly driven by falling hotelry revenues and declining agricultural exports )
Falling remittances reduce
household incomes & consumption
Large knock-on effect on goods
producing sectors (incl. suppliers
of inputs to all sectors)
Source: Jordan SAM Multiplier Results
46.8
14.1
11.1
11.1
6.1
3.2
3.1
3.1
1.9
0.5
0.0
-0.9
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Reduced export demand
Closing non-essential wholesale/retail…
Closing non-essential business services
Transport/travel restrictions
Falling foreign remittances
Banning sports & other entertainment
Closing non-essential manufacturing…
Limiting construction activities
Direct restrictions on farming
Domestic workers & other services
Closing hotels, bars and restaurants
Falling government revenues
Contribution to change in total GDP (% | sums to 100%)

15. Impacts on the Agri-Food System
Food supply is exempt from most restrictions, but it is still
indirectly affected by falling consumer incomes & other shocks
Change in agri-food GDP
during lockdown period (%)
Change in agri-food GDP during a 10-week
lockdown period (US$ mil.)
(food services is directly affected by the closing of hotels, restaurants & bars,
but this is a small component of the overall agri-food system)
Source: Jordan SAM Multiplier Results
-38.4%
-16.6%
-5.0%
-11.5%
-90.8%
-100.0% -80.0% -60.0% -40.0% -20.0% 0.0%
Agri-food system
Agriculture
Agro-processing
Food trade and transport
Food services
Hundreds
-$343.4
-$26.9
-$15.9
-$10.8
-$289.9
Agri-food system
Agriculture
Agro-processing
Food trade and transport
Food services

16. Unpacking Agricultural GDP Impacts
Change in GDP during lockdown (%)
Fruits and Vegetables are the largest food group
and agric. subsector in Jordan
Export crops hurt by falling export
demand & input supply disruptions
Source: Jordan SAM Multiplier Results
-16.6
-23.3
-4.8
-1.9
-2.1
-32.7
-15.7
-14.2
-15.5
-10.8
-10.3
-1.6
-35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0
Agriculture
Crops
Cereals
Pulses & oilseeds
Root crops
Fruits & vegetables
Traditional export crops
Livestock
Meat & eggs
Dairy
Forestry
Fishing
Change in sector GDP (%)

17. Unpacking Food Processing GDP Impacts
Change in GDP during
lockdown (%)
Not entirely exempted by
lockdown restrictions
Processed foods are more intensively
consumed by urban households, who are
affected badly by lockdown (see later slides)
Export-oriented crops are typically
processed before being exported
Source: Jordan SAM Multiplier Results
-6.2
-5.3
-4.5
-11.3
-1.8
-11.9
-2.7
-9.9
-3.4
-15 -10 -5 0
Food processing
Meat
Dairy
Fruits & vegetables
Fats & oils
Cereal milling
Sugar refining
Other foods
Beverages & tobacco
Change in sector GDP (%)

18. Impact on temporary Job losses
Change in Employment during lockdown period (%)
Source: Jordan SAM Multiplier Results
Reduction in economic activity could lead to a temporary job losses
of around 477 thousands jobs, especially in the Services sector
-19.5 -14.3 -23.6 -21.2
-14
-79
-384
-477
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
Agriculture Industry Services total
Change
during
lockdown
(%)
Percentage change
Number of workers (thousands)

19. Impacts on Household Incomes
Higher-income & urban households experience larger income losses
But incomes of rural & lower-income households also fall
(lockdowns target cities; nonpoor more likely to work in manufacturing & services)
(mainly due to effects of food system disruptions on smallholder farmer incomes, the
closure of urban informal markets where urban poor often work, & lower remittances
from abroad)
Source: Jordan SAM Multiplier Results
Change in household incomes during lockdown (%)
-29%
-23%
-27%
-29% -29%
-31%
-27%
-29%
All
households Quintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Quintile 5 Rural Urban

20. 4
Economic Impacts Under Fast & Slow
Easing of Restrictions

21. Easing of Restrictions
Predicting Jordan’s “post-lockdown” period is challenging
Consider two highly stylized scenarios:
Faster easing: Economy rebounds strongly in Q3 & largely returns to normal by Dec 2020
Slower easing: Modest rebound in Q3 with productivity in Q4 still below pre-lockdown levels
Faster easing Slower easing Global shocks
Q1
Jan
No shocks in pre-COVID-19 period
Feb
Mar
Lockdown period starts late-March & last 10 weeks
Remittances &
export demand
decline from late
March onwards
Q2
Apr
May
Jun
Q3
Jul
Losses reduced by 99% Losses reduced by 95%
Shocks reduced by
90%
Aug
Sep
Q4
Oct
Losses reduced by 99.5% Losses reduced by 99% Shocks reduced 95%
Nov
Dec

22. GDP Impacts with Recovery Scenarios
Source: Jordan SAM Multiplier Results
Change in quarterly & annual national GDP with fast or slow easing of restrictions
(changes are relative to a no-COVID growth scenario)
National GDP is 5.7 - 7.4% lower over 2020 as a result of COVID-19
-0.3%
-21.1%
-1.4%
-0.6%
-5.7%
-23.7%
-2.6%
-1.0%
-6.8%
-24.0%
-3.9%
-1.8%
-7.4%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Quarterly averages Annual
Faster easing & recovery Gradual recovery slow recovery

23. A
Detailed Assumptions About
Production & Demand Shocks

24. Channels, Shocks & Affected Sectors (1)
Type of restriction or
global shock
Major sectors
affected2
Size of
shock
Detailed subsectors affected by shock2
Direct restrictions on
farming
Agriculture
(A)
-10%
Crop/animal production, hunting, related service activities (D01); forestry, logging (D02);
fishing, aquaculture (D03)
Limiting mining
operations
Mining, quarrying
(B)
0%
Coal, lignite (D5); crude petroleum, natural gas (D06); metal ores (D07); quarrying (D08);
mining support service activities (D09)
Closing non-essential
manufacturing
operations
Manufacturing
(C)
0%
Food products (D10); coke, refined petroleum (D19); pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemicals
(D21); electromedical equipment (G266)
-15%
Beverages, tobacco (D11-12); textiles, clothing, leather (D13-15); wood, paper, printing
(D16-18); chemicals, rubber, plastics (D20-21); non-metallic minerals (D23); metals (D24-
25); equipment, machinery (D26-28 excl. G266); vehicles, transport equipment (D29-30);
furniture (D31), other manufactures (D33)
Disruptions to energy
and water supply
Electricity, gas
(D); water supply
(E)
0% Electricity, gas, steam supply (D35); water collection, treatment, supply (D36); sewerage,
waste collection/remediation (D37-39)
Limiting construction
activities
Construction
(F)
-10% Construction of buildings (D41); civil engineering (D42); specialized construction activities
(D43)
Closing non-essential
trading activities
Wholesale/retail
trade (G)
-35%
Agricultural raw materials, live animals (G462); agricultural machinery, equipment, supplies
(C4653); food, beverages, tobacco, incl. stalls & markets (G463 G471-472 C4781);
construction materials, hardware, plumbing, heating equipment (C4663); automotive fuels
(G473)
Motor vehicle trade/repair (D45); wholesale trade (D46 excl. G462-463 C4653 C4663);
retail trade (D47 excl. G471-472 G47 C4781)
Transport/travel
restrictions
Transportation,
storage (H)
-35%
Postal/courier activities (D53); transport via pipeline (G493)
Sea/coastal/inland water transport (C5011-5012 C5022); transport support (G522)
Freight rail/road/air transport (C4912 C4923 G512); warehousing/storage (G521)
Urban/suburban passenger/other land transport (C4911 C4921-4922)
Passenger air transport (G511)
Government work-from-
home orders
Public
administration,
defense (O)
0% Public administration, defense, compulsory social security (D84)
Closing hotels, bars and
restaurants
Accommodation,
food services (I)
-85%
Accommodation (D55); food/beverage service activities (D56)

25. Channels, Shocks & Affected Sectors (2)
Type of restriction or
global shock
Major sectors
affected2
Size of
shock
Detailed subsectors affected by shock
Closing non-essential
business services
Information,
communication
(J); finance,
insurance (K); real
estate (L);
professional/
scientific/technica
l activities (M);
administrative/
support services
(N)
30%
Publishing activities (D58); programming/broadcasting activities (D60);
telecommunications (D61); computer programming/consultancy activities (D62);
information service activities (D63); financial services, insurance, pension funding, auxiliary
services (D64-66); real estate activities (D68); security and investigation activities (D80)
-15%
Accounting, bookkeeping, auditing, tax consultancy (G692); head offices, management
consultancy (D70); scientific research/development (D72); advertising, market research
(D73); other professional/scientific/technical activities (D74);
-15% Legal activities (G692); architectural/engineering activities (D71); veterinary activities (D75)
-15%
Motion picture/video/television program production, etc. (D59); renting/leasing activities
(D77); employment activities (D78); travel agencies, tour operators (D79); building
services, landscape activities (D81); office administrative, office support, other business
support activities (D82)
Closing schools Education (P) Pre-primary and primary education (G851)
Secondary education (G852); Other education (G854)
Higher education (G853); Educational support activities (G855)
Disruptions to hospitals
and clinics
Human health,
social work (Q)
Human health activities (D86); residential care activities (D87); social work activities
without accommodation (D88)
Banning sports & other
entertainment
Arts, recreation,
entertainment (R) -20%
Creative/arts/entertainment activities (D90); libraries, archives, museums, other cultural
activities (D91); gambling, betting activities (D92); sports, amusement/recreation activities
(D93)
Domestic workers &
other services
Other service
activities (S);
households as
employers (T);
extraterritorial
organizations (U)
-20% Extraterritorial organizations/bodies (D99)
-20% Membership organizations (D94)
-20%
Other personal services (D96); domestic workers/personnel (D97); Other production
activities of private households for own use (D98)
-20% Repairing computers & personal/household goods (D95)