Andrey Sizov IFPRI-AMIS SEMINAR SERIES Production Prospects for the Northern Hemisphere Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) APR 18, 2023 - 9:00 TO 10:30AM EDT

1. Black Sea 2023 grain crop outlook
Will we see a decline in exports from the region amid the war?
Andrey Sizov
CEO, SovEcon | sizov.report
andre@sovecon.com
@sizov_andre April 2023

2. SovEcon Profile
• We increase global grain market efficiency by providing neutral, reliable
and timely info on the Black Sea region, helping our clients to trade and
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• SovEcon is the oldest Black Sea research firm focused on grains and
oilseeds markets. The company was established in 1991.
• SovEcon’s analysts in Russia, Ukraine and the EU keep a close eye on
Black Sea wheat and corn trade flows, crop outlook, prices and local
events helping its clients to avoid costly mistakes when something big
in the region shakes global commodities markets.

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4. Russia & Ukraine 2023 crop outlook

7. Source: Rosstat, SovEcon
Russia cut winter crop area second year in a row
(mln ha)

9. Moisture reserves close/below average in South; above – in non-southern regions

10. Russian wheat winter-kill to increase 0.5 p.p. to 6.0%
Source: RosHydroMet, SovEcon

11. Source: Rosstat, SovEcon
16.7
16.1
12.8
13.0
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023*
winter wheat spring wheat
Russia: total 2023 wheat area to decline (mln ha)

12. Source: Rosstat, SovEcon
104.2
86.8
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
1
9
7
7
1
9
7
9
1
9
8
1
1
9
8
3
1
9
8
5
1
9
8
7
1
9
8
9
1
9
9
1
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
5
2
0
1
7
2
0
1
9
2
0
2
1
2
0
2
3
Russian wheat production to drop 17.4 mmt in 2023

13. 13

14. 14

16. Ukrainian winter wheat area to decline by 1 mln ha
Source: Ukrstat, SovEcon

19. Soil moisture reserves are mostly above average

20. Ukraine’s wheat production to decline to 18.1 mmt
20.4
18.1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0 1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Source: Ukrstat, Sovecon

21. Ukraine’s corn area to drop by 0.6 mln ha
Source: Ukrstat, SovEcon

22. Corn production to decline to 24.1 MMT
27.8
23.4
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Source: Ukrstat, Sovecon

23. Russia Ukraine S&D

24. Russia’s 22/23 wheat S&D: still huge supply
and high exports, MMT
Source: SovEcon
2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Supply
Beginning stocks 9.3 8.0 21.6
incl. intervention fund 0.0 0.0 3.1
market stocks 9.3 8.0 18.5
Production 76.0 104.2 86.8
Imports 0.5 0.5 0.5
Total supply 85.9 112.7 108.9
Demand
Domestic consumption 44.5 46.6 46.8
Exports 33.4 44.5 43.0
Total demand 77.9 91.1 89.8
Intervention purchases 0.0 3.1 0.0
Ending stocks 8.0 21.6 19.1
incl. intervention fund 0.0 3.1 3.1
market stocks 8.0 18.5 16.0

25. 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Supply
Beginning stocks 1.7 6.0 2.4
Production 32.2 20.4 18.1
Imports 0.01 0.01 0.01
Total supply 33.9 26.4 20.5
Demand
Domestic consumption 9.5 8.5 8.5
Exports 18.3 15.5 10.5
Total demand 27.8 24.0 19.0
Ending stocks 6.0 2.4 1.5
Source: SovEcon
Ukraine’s 22/23 wheat S&D: smaller supply and export,
mmt

26. 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24
Supply
Beginning stocks 1.1 8.4 0.9
Production 42.1 27.8 23.4
Imports 0.02 0.02 0.02
Total supply 43.2 36.2 24.3
Demand
Domestic consumption 10.5 6.3 6.3
Exports 24.3 29.0 17.0
Total demand 34.8 35.3 23.3
Ending stocks 8.4 0.9 1.0
Source: SovEcon
Ukraine’s 22/23 corn S&D: smaller supply and export,
mmt

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