IFPRI Egypt Seminar Series provides a platform for all people striving to identify and implement evidence-based policy solutions that sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. The series is part of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) funded project called “Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity” (EIBC) that is implemented by IFPRI.

1. Prospects of using evidence based research for policy
making and strategy development
Opportunities of Energy Subsidy Reform for Sustainable
Development in Egypt – IFPRI
Dr. Ahmed Kamaly
Advisor to the Minister of Planning Monitoring and Administrative Reform
Ministry of Planning,
Monitoring and
Administrative Reform
27 February 2018

2. Ministry of Planning,
Monitoring and
Administrative Reform
2
Evidence based policy prospects in Egypt – macro efforts
 Evidence based policies have become the core tool for
development with the ever increasing availability of data.
 Egypt is embracing the concepts of data availability, and
transparency and is working through a number of endeavors to
strengthen its evidence based policy making process.
 The importance and commitment towards having accurate,
reliable and timely national accounts to support national planning
and evidence based policies is reflected through the prime
minister decree (decree no. 1000 - 2017) for the revision of GDP
and investments statistics.
 The technical committee formulated is mandated to develop
methodologies for the estimation of the informal sector’s GDP as
well as the size of private investment – which are key growth
drivers of the Egyptian economy.

3. Ministry of Planning,
Monitoring and
Administrative Reform
3
Evidence based policy prospects in Egypt – MPMAR efforts
 The Ministry of Planning, Monitoring and Administrative Reform
promotes and adopts evidence based policies through the following
projects:
 Use of quantifiable targets in the Sustainable Development
Strategy: Egypt Vision 2030.
 Development of The Macro Analysis and Policy Unit (MAP).
 Reviving the role of the Institute of National Planning as the
ministry’s think tank through a number of collaborative research
projects (private investment, allocation of investments, etc..)
 Development of an Egyptian CGE model in cooperation with
ESCWA to support policy analysis – which builds on IFPRI’s
training on CGE to MPMAR.
 The Ministry is also working on the development of an
Employment Projection Model in cooperation with the
International Labor Organization (ILO), CAPMAS and the
Ministry of Trade & Industry.

4. Ministry of Planning,
Monitoring and
Administrative Reform
4
Macro Analysis and Policy Unit at MPMAR
 The Macro Analysis and Policy Unit (MAP) undertakes applied and
policy-oriented evidence based research on macroeconomic issues
facing Egypt to provide advice on macroeconomic management,
development and future economic perspectives.
 Examples of the evidence based research are the following
projects:
 Planning for Egypt’s Future Using 2017 Census Data.
 SMEs Policy Index
 Forecasting GDP

5. Ministry of Planning,
Monitoring and
Administrative Reform
5
Macro Analysis and Policy Unit at MPMAR
1. Planning for Egypt’s Future Using 2017 Census Data
 In September 2017, the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and
Statistics (CAPMAS) announced the results of the 2017 Census of
Population, Housing and Establishments in Egypt.
 The 2017 census provides the largest updated database of the
current situation regarding population, buildings, units, housing
conditions, and facilities, at both national and municipal levels.
 To support policy and decision-makers in the government, the
Ministry of Planning, Monitoring and Administrative Reform
formulated working groups of experts to study and analyze the results
of the 2017 census and their implications in three scopes;
 Economic conditions;
 Social Justice; and
 Sustainability

6. Ministry of Planning,
Monitoring and
Administrative Reform
6
Macro Analysis and Policy Unit at MPMAR
2. SMEs Policy Index
 To monitor the impact of the different policies targeting SME's in
Egypt, MAP is working on establishing an SME's Policy index that
should serve as a benchmarking tool to monitor and evaluate
progress in policies that support micro, small and medium-sized
enterprises (MSMEs).
 The Index will be structured around ten principles providing a wide-
range of pro-enterprise measures to guide the design and
implementation of SME policies. Aiming to provide a framework to
assess policies targeting MSME development, as the Index identifies
strengths and weaknesses in policy design and implementation,
allowing the government to set targets on SME policy developments
and strategic priorities to further improve the business environment.

7. Ministry of Planning,
Monitoring and
Administrative Reform
7
Macro Analysis and Policy Unit at MPMAR
3. Forecasting GDP
 Egypt is aiming to further develop its sustainable development
strategy: Egypt Vision 2030. Such long-term strategy, which extends
until 2030, highlights the importance of setting quantitative targets
for the variables involved in the various strategic pillars.
 In this context, GDP growth represents one of the most important
economic variables, as this one indicator reflects living standards,
employment, wages, prices, economic stability, and is an important
determinant for private investments. We use a system dynamics
partial equilibrium model to estimate real GDP, potential GDP and
measure the output gap until 2030

8. Thank You!
Ministry of Planning,
Monitoring and
Administrative Reform
27 February 2018