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"Adapting to New Climate Realities: Doing More, Better, and New"

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Keith Wiebe, Claudia Ringler, Elizabeth Bryan, Simrin Makhija, Wei Zhang, and Channing Arndt
POLICY SEMINAR
Adapting to New Climate Realities: Doing More, Better, and New
SEP 19, 2019 - 12:15 PM TO 01:45 PM EDT

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"Adapting to New Climate Realities: Doing More, Better, and New"

  1. 1. Adapting to New Climate Realities: Doing More, Better, and New September 19, 2019 – 12:15 to 1:45 pm International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 1201 Eye St. NW, 12th Floor Conference Center
  2. 2. More R&D to Increase Agricultural Productivity Keith Wiebe Senior Research Fellow Environment and Production Technology Division
  3. 3. A critical source of agricultural growth in the past Source: Fuglie et al. (World Bank, 2019), Harvesting Prosperity
  4. 4. Critical to addressing multiple goals in the future
  5. 5. R&D takes time, so we need to invest more now RAB Rwerere Research Centre, Burera District, Rwanda, Credit: Smalyon, CIAT Prof. Nguyen Thi Lang, breeder, Cuu Long Delta Rice Research Institute, Vietnam, Credit: G Smith, CIAT Tanzanian farmer on drought tolerant maize demonstration plot, Credit: Anne Wangalachi, CIMMYT. The Mendoza family of Todos Santos, Guatemala, Credit: http://time.com/8515/hungry-planet-what-the-world-eats/
  6. 6. Note: Climate change is modeled using RCP 8.5 and the Hadley Climate Model. “More R&D 1” increases CGIAR R&D spending by about half, “More R&D 2” by about double, and “More R&D 3” by about double with faster adoption. Source: IFPRI, IMPACT model version 3.3 (Rosegrant et al. 2017). R&D can help offset the impacts of climate change 0 50 100 150 200 250 2010 Without climate change With climate change More R&D 1 More R&D 2 More R&D 3 2050 Population at Risk of Hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa (millions) Today Alternative futures (2050)
  7. 7. Better Risk Management Claudia Ringler Deputy Division Director Environment and Production Technology Division
  8. 8. Future weather does not cooperate with traditional insurance products Notes: Values are in millimeters and are from IPCC AR5 and are for RCP8.5.
  9. 9. Risk Contingent Credit (RCC) RCC Farmers more likely to  open bank account  take out larger loans  buy better inputs
  10. 10. GCA Digital Adaptation Atlas for better Risk Management  Visualizes spatially-explicit data on climate risks and vulnerabilities and identify potential areas with adaptation  Features a new Climate Change Adaptation Index  Attempts using machine learning and econometric analyses using RS data, i.e. identify and monitor adaptation from space
  11. 11. Better at Strengthening Women’s and Men’s Resilience Elizabeth Bryan Senior Scientist Environment and Production Technology Division
  12. 12. Adaptation Actions are Needed at Multiple Levels National Policymakers Global Decision-Makers Farm Households
  13. 13. Different capacities: E.g., Information
  14. 14. Different Needs and Preferences
  15. 15. Different Contributions: Genetic Resources
  16. 16. Men and Women Both Contribute to Well-Being Outcomes Food and Nutrition Security Environmental Security Health Gender Equality Climate Resilience
  17. 17. IFPRI Research  Examining extension approaches  Gender-disaggregated data collection and analysis  Development of tools (e.g. WEAI)  Capacity building on gender
  18. 18. RESOURCES: http://www.ifpri.org/project/grassroot s-women-information-on-adaptation https://gcan.ifpri.info/ http://www.ifpri.org/project/weai http://womenandclimate.ifpri.info/
  19. 19. New Innovations in Agricultural Extension and Rural Advisory Services Simrin Makhija Senior Research Analyst Environment and Production Technology Division
  20. 20. 1. Agricultural technologies and practices 2. Modalities for sharing information 3. Strategies, structures, and management of organizations that engage farmers and share information Innovations in extension Photo Credit: Mitchell Maher/ IFPRI
  21. 21. Last mile of delivery Photo Credit: Digital Gree Last mile of delivery
  22. 22. Experimentation with new modalities Photo Credit: Digital Green
  23. 23. Monitoring and back-end analytics Photo Credit: Digital Green
  24. 24. Evaluating impact Photo credit: Simrin Makhija/IFPRI
  25. 25. Video- mediated extension Access to extension Knowledge Technology uptake Higher yields Extension agent effort Higher income Sustained adoption?
  26. 26. Takeaways 1. Experiment, fail, learn, and experiment again 2. Think not only about new innovations in technologies but also about new methods to monitor these innovations and evaluate their impact Photo credit: Claudia Ringler/IFPRI
  27. 27. New Ideas on Sustainable Pest Management Wei Zhang Senior Research Fellow Environment and Production Technology Division
  28. 28. Insects are at the core of many of today’s interlinked adaptation challenges GETTY IMAGES; USED IN BBC N
  29. 29. Deteriorating biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services Heighten ed pest outbreak risks Increased invasive species risks Chemical pesticide lock-in Increased env. and health hazards GHG emissions Climate change Challenges are interlinked, so are their drivers
  30. 30. USDA We must break from this unsustainable path. What can we do in the Year of Action on this topic?
  31. 31. Scott Bauer/USDA  Uncover the economic value of natural enemies and true costs of intensive pesticide applications  IFPRI and partners estimated that doubling the current ladybeetle density in two-thirds of cotton fields in China could bring around $300 million a year  The ‘true’ marginal value of insecticides to cotton farmers is negative. In other words, farmers are better off slashing insecticide use by more than half.
  32. 32.  Increasing the adoption of nature- or ecologically-based pest management approach  The introduction of a parasitic wasp, Anagyrus lopezi, in Thailand • successfully suppressed the destructive cassava mealybug pest • restored production • helped stabilize global trade flows in cassava • slowed down deforestation in cassava crop expansion areas in Vietnam and Cambodia  Mainstream economic and policy systems that reflect these benefits and damages in its accounting systems and standards  “TEEB for Agriculture and Food” evaluation framework Photo credit: Phanuwat Moonjuntha (Thailand Department of Agriculture)
  33. 33.  Significant deficiencies in farmers’ ecological literacy worldwide  Innovative work on video- mediated extension and group game-facilitated experiential learning offer some promising solutions. Photo credit: W. Zhang, June 2017 in Rajasthan, India
  34. 34.  Habitat management to enhance biocontrol services requires coordination among farmers across landscapes.  IFPRI and partners have been supporting farm communities in developing institutional capacities to improve the sustainability of pest management.
  35. 35. Implications Channing Arndt Division Director Environment and Production Technology Division
  36. 36. The Communication Tightrope  Enormous interlinked climate, food, population, development, and environmental challenges. • Merchant of doom  Capabilities to meet these challenges: Doing more, better, and new. • Pollyanna indifferent to harms that are occurring
  37. 37. Challenges  An increase in demand for calories of around 50% in the next 30-40 years with most of this increased demand emanating from Africa and South Asia.  Increasing global temperatures from an already elevated base.  Widespread pollution problems related to agricultural production.  A need to drastically reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, including those from the food system, by 2050 in order to stabilize the climate.
  38. 38. Actions  Keith  More agricultural research  Claudia  Better risk management  Elizabeth  Better at strengthening women’s and men’s resilience  Simrin  New opportunities in digital agriculture  Wei  New pest control at scale
  39. 39. The Big Ask  GCA key recommendation: Double the budget of the CGIAR  What is the CGIAR? • The world’s largest agricultural innovation network comprised of 15 international agricultural research centers • CGIAR is best known for fostering the Green Revolution in Asia • IFPRI is a member
  40. 40. Why Make ‘The Big Ask’ of the CGIAR?  A track record of success,  Operation at scale, and  Operations focused in the areas greatest challenge: Africa and South Asia. We look forward to discussing the best ways to deliver on this big ask.
  41. 41. Thank you!

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