Will renewable electrification of energy solve air pollution? Not quite! - Mark Barrett

Will renewable electrification of energy solve air pollution? Not quite! - Mark Barrett
Will renewable electrification of energy solve air pollution? Not quite! IAQM Discussion Meeting 20th November 2019 at Arup Offices Mark Barrett EnergySpaceTime group 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 # 1 1 4 # 3 0 # # 0 0 0 1 # # 8 0 4 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 # # 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 4 5 0 1 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 # 3 # 2 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 5 # # 1 0 3 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 1 1 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 # # 8 1 7 0 3 2 # # # 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 # # # # # 0 0 0 # # # 0 2 # # 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 # # # 0 0 # # # # # 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 1 # 1 0 0 0 2 0 # # # 2 0 0 0 # # # # # # 3 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 # # 0 0 1 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 # # # # # 3 0 0 0 0 0 # # # # 3 0 0 4 # 9 1 5 1 1 0 2 0 0 # 5 0 2 0 3 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 # # 0 0 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 4 # # # # # 1 0 0 0 2 # # # # 4 0 1 # # # 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Energy Space Time Air pollution concentrations - national 2 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 Birmingham City Council Exeter City Council City of Edinburgh Council Colchester Borough Council NOxasNO2µg/m3 Total_NOx_11 Rural_11 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 Birmingham City Council Exeter City Council City of Edinburgh Council Colchester Borough Council PM2.5µg/m3 Total_PM2.5_11 Exc Res+salt PM_secondary_11 UK Defra concentration projections ==
Energy Space Time http://esenergyvis.wordpress.com/ NOx concentration Air pollution data: Defra Concentration and projections Birmingham London 3
Energy Space Time Model and data flow 4 Spatiotemporal demands: heat electricity gas Supply models District heat Electricity Gas Stationary scenario: efficiency supply shares SECTOR/CITY TOTALS Energy, carbon & air pollution emissions costs, fuel poverty Transport scenario: mode technology Public supply Design Technologies Energy service cost Fuel poverty People, households, businesses Non-transport demand model (mainly buildings) Transport model Air pollution concentrations and health impact National energycosts and carbon National emissions
Energy Space Time A sample national scenario context 5 Electricity • replace fossil with renewable or nuclear • CO2 and air pollution emissions per kWh fall • calculate costs per kWh Emissions (anthropogenic) • Energy related from energy scenario • Other emissions (e.g. ammonia) from Defra projections & extensions • Note importance of ~constant ammonia emission for secondary PM2.5 Electricity and emissions 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 TWh Renewable: variable Renewable: biomass/hydro Nuclear Coal Oil Gas 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 kt NOx PM2.5 (primary) Ammonia Sulphur dioxide NMVOC
Energy Space Time A sample national scenario context 6 Primary fuel costs Electricity and hydrogen costs - Different for on peak, off-peak, district heat - Electricity carbon content 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 p/kWh Gas Oil Coal Nuclear Biowaste BioCrop 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 gCO2e/kWh Ele average EleOff EleHeaOn EleDH Hydrogen 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 p/kWh EleAve EleOff EleHeaOn EleDH Hydrogen Bulk costs and carbon of city energy imports
Energy Space Time Air pollution projections - national 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065Index Transport demand Transport electrification Transport chemical fuel emission index Transport overall emission index 0 200 400 600 800 1000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 kt NOx PM2.5 (primary) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 NOx background PM2.5 Secondary PM2.5 resid+salt Transport National primary emissions Background concentration indices 7
Energy Space Time8 London: population Series1 Series10 Series19 Series28 Series37 Series46 Series55 Series64 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 0-2 2-4 4-6 6-8 8-10 10-12 12-14 14-16 16-18 18-20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 1 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 2 4 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 1 0 1 0 1 0 3 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 4 4 4 0 0 0 3 2 3 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 0 0 2 5 2 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 4 0 0 0 0 1 4 2 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 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Energy Space Time Scenario (London) – demand Drivers Building efficiency Services 9 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 k PopRes HHolds Enterprises Premises PopNonRes 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 TJ Transport Electric Air conditioning Other heat Space heat 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 Efficiencyofstocks 3 high 2 medium 1 Low
Energy Space Time Scenario (London) – heating systems (gas, electric, district heat only) Domestic Non domestic 10 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 k Dis Heat CHP Heat pump Elec off Elec res Gas boiler 0 100 200 300 400 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 k Dis Heat CHP Heat pump Elec off Elec res Gas boiler
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Energy Space Time Scenario: transport passenger Demand by mode Shift from car to non- mechanised, bus, train Passenger distance by mode 12 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 Passengerdistanceby mode Pla Boa Tra Bus Tax Car Mcy Cyc Wal 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 Gp.km Pla Boa Tra Bus Tax Car Mcy Cyc Wal
Energy Space Time Scenario: transport technology share - shift to electricity 13 Passenger Freight 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 Van_ICd Van_ICp Van_Ele Van_H2F Tru_ICd Tru_Ele Tru_H2F Tra_Ele Tra_Liq Boa_Ele Boa_Liq 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 Wal Cyc_Hum Mcy_ICp Mcy_Ele Car_ICd Car_ICp Car_Ele Car_H2F Bus_ICd Bus_Ele Bus_H2F Tra_Ele Tra_Liq Boa_Ele Boa_Liq Pla_Liq 13
Energy Space Time Scenario (London): transport energy Passenger energy by technology Energy for passenger and freight 14 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065TJ Pla_Liq Boa_Ele Boa_Liq Tra_Ele Tra_Liq Bus_Ele Bus_H2F Bus_ICd Car_Ele Car_H2F Car_ICp Car_ICd Mcy_Ele Mcy_ICp Cyc_Ele Cyc_Hum 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 TJ Hydrogen Electricity Liquid
Energy Space Time Deliveries Shift from fossil gas and oil to electricity and DH Electricity consumption Increase for heating and transport Electricity generation Steady increase in solar PV and increase then decline in CHP Scenario (London)– demand and supply 15 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 TJ Hydrogen DH heat pumps DH pumping Transport Heat AirCon Non-heat stationary 0 5000 10000 15000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 TJ Other generation DH CHP DH CHP individual Solar PV 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 TJ Hydrogen Heat Electricity Solid Liquid Gas
Energy Space Time Birmingham emissions air pollution and CO2 16 PM2.5 Excluding dust resuspension How much brake dust with regenerative braking? NOx CO2 16 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 kt CO2 indirect CO2 direct 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 kt N:Point sources C:Other C:Industry+Supp C:Dom+NonDom C:Road transport 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 kt PM2.5 brakes PM2.5 tyres/road PM2.5 exhaust
Energy Space Time Air pollution emission and city concentration projections 17 NOx emission indices City NOx concentration 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 Normalfactor µg/m3 Calculated Normalised Normal fac City NO2 calculated concentration 17 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 Index C:Road transport C:Dom+NonDom C:Industry+Supp C:Other N:Point sources N:Rural City Total 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 µg/m3 N:Rural N:Point sources C:Other C:Industry+Supp C:Dom+NonDom C:Road transport
Energy Space Time Air pollution emission and concentration projections NOx (NO2 similar change) PM2.5 18 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 µg/m3 N:Rural N:Point sources C:Other C:Industry+Supp C:Dom+NonDom C:Road transport 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 ug/m3 N:Res+Salt N:Secondary N:Primary C:Industry+Supp C:Other C:Dom+NonDom C:Road transport
Energy Space Time Air pollution health impacts Years of lost life Premature deaths 19 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 Population(k) Premateuredeaths(k) PD NO2 PD PM2.5 PD combined Pop: all Pop: over 30 yrs 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 Populatio(k) Yearslostlife(k) YLL NO2 YLL PM2.5 YLL combined Pop: all Pop: over 30 yrs
Energy Space Time Air pollution health impacts: Birmingham (any increasing trends are due to increasing population) 20 Premature deaths by pollutant and source Premature deaths affected by policy NB: assumption that natural sources have heath impacts 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 k NO2: city source PM2.5: city source NO2: national source PM2.5 primary: national source PM2.5 secondary: national source 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 k City policy National policy Natural, beyond policy
Energy Space Time21 UK renewable electrification takes us a long way: • Eliminates almost all stationary energy and transport fuel related emissions • Reduces NOx emission to levels But these notably remain: • PM2.5: tyre/wheel/road, brake (?) and resuspension particle emission • PM2.5: secondary particles from UK ammonia but needs NOx SO2 etc. • PM2.5: industrial, construction etc. • NOx: aviation, maybe shipping fuelled with hydrogen/ ammonia. • long range transboundary imports • natural sources Almost, but not quite
Energy Space Time Thanks for listening 22 Questions?
Energy Space Time23 London: heat load illustration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 # 1 1 4 # 3 0 # # 0 0 0 1 # # 8 0 4 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 # # 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 4 5 0 1 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 # 3 # 2 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 5 # # 1 0 3 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 1 1 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 # # 8 1 7 0 3 2 # # # 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 # # # # # 0 0 0 # # # 0 2 # # 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 # # # 0 0 # # # # # 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 1 # 1 0 0 0 2 0 # # # 2 0 0 0 # # # # # # 3 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 # # 0 0 1 0 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 # # # # # 3 0 0 0 0 0 # # # # 3 0 0 4 # 9 1 5 1 1 0 2 0 0 # 5 0 2 0 3 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 # # 0 0 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 4 # # # # # 1 0 0 0 2 # # # # 4 0 1 # # # 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 # 2 2 # 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 0 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 3 2 # 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4 0 0 1 # 0 0 0 2 0 2 # # # 2 0 0 1 1 3 3 9 4 1 0 2 1 # 5 0 1 3 1 0 0 1 0 2 1 1 0 0 1 2 1 # # 0 0 7 0 0 1 1 3 # # # 2 1 2 4 4 0 8 1 0 0 # # 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 # 1 0 1 0 1 3 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 # 2 1 0 1 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 # 1 0 4 1 0 0 0 # # # # 1 3 2 0 5 1 0 0 2 0 1 # # 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 # 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 7 # 5 # 0 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 # 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 # # 4 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 # 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 # 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 #
Energy Space Time Air pollution 24
Energy Space Time Air pollution premature deaths 25 NOx: C:Road transport 24% NOx: C:Dom+NonDom 4% NOx: C:Industry+Supp 3%NOx: C:Other 10% NOx: N:Point sources 1% NOx: N:Rural 13% PM2.5 C:Road transport 5% PM2.5 C:Dom+NonDom 1% PM2.5 C:Other 2% PM2.5 C:Industry+Supp 2% PM2.5 N:Primary 1% PM2.5 N:Secondary 18% PM2.5 N:Res+Salt 16%
Energy Space Time Air pollution calculation 1. Collate base year concentrations by source for city 2. Project city and national emissions 3. Project concentrations using: a. changes in emissions from sources b. NOx oxidation c. Secondary PM formation 4. Calculate premature deaths and years of lost life 26
Energy Space Time Air pollution base year concentration by source - Birmingham 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 Concentrationsareasug.m-3NOxasNO2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 ug.m-3gravimetricPM2.5 NOx as NO2 PM2.5 27
Energy Space Time Emission to concentration model Multiply base year concentrations Cb for each source by the ratio of future emission/formation index (Icf) which is the calculated future year NO2 (primary and ‘rural’) and PM2.5 (primary and secondary) divided by the calculated base year index (Icb) to obtain future concentrations Cf. For each source: Cf = Cb Icf / Icb µg/m3 The proposed methods for calculating the NOx and PM2.5 indices are on the next 2 slides. 28
Energy Space Time NOx to NO2 29 For base and future year: 1. Estimate city and national (and European?) NOx emissions (kt) from different sectors – transport, electricity etc. 2. Estimate fraction f(NO2) of city and national NOx from these sources that is emitted as nitrogen dioxide (NO2), with the rest being nitric oxide (NO) 3. Estimate oxidation of city and national NO to NO2 using oxidation equation with NO2 and ozone oxidants 4. Normalise calculated NO2 to Defra base year value. 5. Result is city and rural (or background) concentration indices; IcNO2(c) and IcNO2(r) (µg/m3)
Energy Space Time Secondary PM2.5 30 For base and future year: 1. Assume UK (and Europe) emissions of: • Primary PM2.5 • PM2.5 precursors: nitrate, sulphate and ammonium 2. Estimate formation of secondary PM2.5 to obtain background concentration index for each city with a linear equation: IcPM2.5 = k1 NOx + k2 SO2 + (k3 NH3 assumed constant) 3. Add national primary and secondary PM2.5 to give PM2.5 (rural/background) concentration index for city; IcPM2.5(r)
Energy Space Time Health model The relative risk RR (a fraction) is the concentration response factor CRF raised to the power ((change in concentration dC)/10): RR = CRF(dC/10) The attributable fraction AF due to air pollution is calculated: AF = (RR-1)/RR The premature deaths PD per year is the population over 30 yrs old Pop30 times the baseline mortality rate Mb times the attributable fraction AF: PD= Pop30 Mb AF The years of life lost (years) YLL is the premature deaths PD times the years of life per premature death YLLd (assumed to be 12 years) YLL = PD YLLd Notes: • It is conventionally assumed that the combined impact of several pollutants is less than the sum of the individual impacts. • Currently natural particulate pollutants (dust, salt etc.) are assumed to have the same impacts as anthropogenic pollutants 31

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