NOx Emissions from Modern Diesel Vehicles

1. NOx Emissions from Modern
Diesel Vehicles
Dr Ben Marner

2. Introduction
• Compile results from real-world emissions tests
• See how Defra’s EFT is performing
• Can we improve on the EFT’s predictions?

3. Historical Context
Predicted Measured
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
AnnualMeanNO2(mg/m3)
Objective
Official
No Reductions in Emissions
per Vehicle

4. 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
Euro 6
Euro 5
Euro 4
Euro 3
Euro 2
Euro 1
Pre-Euro 1
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
Euro VI
Euro V
Euro IV
Euro III
Euro II
Euro I
“Emissionsgate”
Composition of National
Diesel Car Fleet (v/km)
Composition of National
Artic HGV Fleet (v/km)
“Past Performance is no Guarantee of Future Results”*
*my pension statement

5. Compiled Test Results for
Euro 6 Diesel Cars
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
ConformityFactor
Dynanometer PEMS/SEMS
Tu Graz TNOADAC TFLTNO Weiss ICCT Emissions
Analytics
Tate
Remote
5 Veh
Tested
10 Veh
Tested
20 Veh
Tested
Key
Weighted
Average
from Dyno and
Pems/Sems
tests
Dynanometer PEMS/SEMS
Tu Graz TNOADAC TFLTNO Weiss ICCT Emissions
Analytics
Tate
Remote
5 Veh
Tested
10 Veh
Tested
20 Veh
Tested
Key
Weighted
Average
from Dyno and
Pems/Sems
tests

6. Euro 6 Diesel Cars
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
ConformityFactor
Speed (kph)
Studies where
Average Speed
is Not
Reported
Studies Where
an Average
Speed is
Reported
Studies Where
a Range of
Speeds is
Reported
Weighted
Average

7. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
ConformityFactor
Speed (kph)
COPERT 4 V10
E6
All
Measurement
Studies
Weighted
Average from
Measurements
Euro 6 Diesel Cars

8. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
ConformityFactor
Speed (kph)
COPERT 4 V10
E6
Uplifted
Emissions
All
Measurement
Studies
Weighted
Average from
Measurements
Euro 6 Diesel Cars

9. Heavies
• Few vehicles/engines tested (15 engines + remote
sensing)
• Lots of possible engine / vehicle combinations
• g/kwh or g/km
• Focused on relative differences between Euro
standards

10. Heavies
Substantial Reductions from Euro V to Euro VI – both Measured and Predicted
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
EuroVIas%ofEuroV
Speed (kph)
Buses and Coaches COPERT
HGVs COPERT
TNO, 2014 Urban
TNO, 2014 Extra-urban EVI
TU Graz, 2013
TfL, 2015 (Artic)
Tate, 2013
Tate, 2015 (Artic)
Tate, 2015 (Rigid)

11. Heavies
Measured Reductions up to Euro V Less Persuasive
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
EuroVas%ofEuroIII
Speed (kph)
COPERT V10 HGVs
COPERT V10 Bus and Choach
TNO, 2014
Carslaw and Ryhs-Tyler, 2013
Tate, 2013
Tate, 2015
Tate, 2015

12. Heavies
• No Strong Evidence of Reduction between Euro III
and Euro V
 So uplift Euro IV and V to parity with Euro III
• Euro VI ca. 80% Reduction from Euro V
 So set Euro VI to be 20% of Euro III*
*For the equivalent vehicle type, when emissions for all speeds are averaged

13. Heavies
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
170%
Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV Euro V (EGR) Euro V (SCR) Euro VI
Emissionsas%ofEuroIII
Rigid <=7,5 t
Rigid 7,5 - 12 t
Rigid 12 - 14 t
Rigid 14 - 20 t
Rigid 20 - 26 t
Rigid 26 - 28 t
Rigid 28 - 32 t
Rigid >32 t
Articulated 14 - 20 t
Articulated 20 - 28 t
Articulated 28 - 34 t
Articulated 34 - 40 t
Articulated 40 - 50 t
Emission Standard

14. Summary of Adjustments
Vehicle Type Adjustment Applied to Emission Factors
All Petrol Vehicles No adjustment
Light Duty
Diesel
Vehicles
Euro 5 and
earlier
No adjustment
Euro 6 Uplifted (to provide a Conformity Factor of 5)
Heavy Duty
Diesel
Vehicles
Euro III
and earlier
No adjustment
Euro IV
and V
Set to equal Euro III values for equivalent vehicle type
Euro VI
Multiplied by between 1.8 and 4.4 (depending on vehicle
type) to equal 20% of Euro III emissions (for that vehicle
type)

15. Overall Effect

16. Phasing of Euro 6
Euro 6a/b2015/16 - 2017 ‘New’ European Drive Cycle (NEDC)
2017 - 2020 Euro 6c
World Light-duty
Test Cycle
Real Driving Emissions
(RDE) with Conformity
Factor of up to 2.1
2020 onward Euro 6d
World Light-duty
Test Cycle
RDE with Conformity
Factor of up to 1.5*
* CF of 1 with a measurement tolerance of 0.5 to be reviewed yearly

17. CURED!
free to use and available from: www.aqconsultants.co.uk
Excel Calculator

18. The End
Thanks for Staying Awake 
This presentation was based on a report which is available at:
http://www.aqconsultants.co.uk/Resources/Download-Reports.aspx
References are set out in the report linked above
Dr Ben Marner
Tel: 0117 974 1086
Email: BenMarner@aqconsultants.co.uk

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