This document discusses the impact of crises on social programs and poverty. It notes that the current global economic crisis has led to a sharp decline in global GDP growth and industrial production in Turkey. Crises particularly hurt the poor, who have limited resources and coping abilities. An estimated 90 million more people will fall into extreme poverty by 2010 due to the crisis. The document also discusses lessons from previous crises, highlighting the need to anticipate social impacts and protect vulnerable groups from the early stages of crisis response. Effective crisis responses have been rapid, sizable, and focused on social safety nets and pro-poor policies.

1. Crises and Social Programs VinodThomas and XubeiLuo Independent Evaluation Group Istanbul, Turkey October 6, 2009

2. 1. The Current Economic Crisis 2 Global GDP Growth (percent, quarter-to-quarter, annualized) Source: WEO, July 2009

3. Turkey’s Decline in Industrial Production Growth 3 Industrial Production Growth (y-o-y) Sources: World Bank (DECPG), Datastream, IMF

4. Turkey’s Increase in Unemployment 4

6. Limited access to financial markets

7. Precarious living conditions

8. Fragile health/nutritionImpact Sharp decline in consumption Sharp decline in health and education expenditures 5

9. Poverty Impact of Current Crisis By end-2010, 90 million more people are expected to be living in extreme poverty, less than $1.25 per day, than would have been the case without the crisis. 6

10. Natural Disasters, a Growing Threat The reported number of disaster has been increasing, growing from fewer than 100 in 1975 to more than 400 in 2005 (IEG, 2006). The cost of disaster damages has been exploding: the economic costs of major disasters in constant dollars are now estimated to be 15 times higher than they were in the 1950s - $652 billion in material losses in the 1990s (IMF 2003). Human cost is also high and increasing: more than 1.6 billion people were affected by natural disasters in 1984-93; and 2.6 billion in 1994-2003 (IEG, 2006). 7

11. 3. Inclusiveness and Poverty Reduction A one standard deviation improvement in the income distribution could reduce poverty by 67% in Sub-Saharan Africa, close to half Latin America and Caribbean and Europe and Central Asia, one-third in Middle East and North Africa and East Asia and Pacific, and 17% South Asia. 8

12. Inequality, Growth and Poverty

13. Growth and Distribution Jointly Affect Changes in Poverty 10 100 0.1 1 poverty line 10 Source: Bourguignon (2003)

14. Pro-cyclical Declines in Health Spending after Crisis 11

16. Thailand: expansion of existing social insurance program to provide support to low-income family in response to the crisis in 1997. (Pongsappich and Brimble, 1999)12

17. WBG’s Vulnerability Framework “Protect the most vulnerable” is a theme of World Bank Group’s operational crisis response: Protecting the most vulnerable from the fallout of the crisis Maintaining long-term infrastructure investment programs Sustaining the potential for private sector-led economic growth and employment creation 13

18. 14 4. Poverty Programs, Not as an After-Thought Social and poverty impact of crises should be anticipated 1% reduction in GDP traps another 20 million people in poverty 100 million more people in poverty with the global recession Millions live very close to the poverty line, so even small GDP changes produce vast swings in poverty Past responses to crises ignored poverty impact in the early stages More attention needed to vulnerable groups—potential area for the World Bank Group to contribute Impact on immigrant labor: foreign and domestic migration, remittances

19. 15 Crisis Response Lessons from Research Early, rapid and sizeable responses are key Social safety-net and pro-poor policies need support from the outset Policies need to account for behavior and the political economy Immediate responses cannot ignore implications for development Global crisis needs a global solution—target stimuli where the marginal impact will be the greatest* * How to Solve the Global Economic Crisis—Justin Yifu Lin, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, World Bank

20. 16 Crisis Response Lessons from Evaluation Emphasize not only volume, but also quality Focus on poverty from the outset Build in the environment and climate change Seek selectivity and adaptability of response Stress coordination among partners Focus on monitoring and evaluation Organize for early warning

21. Concluding Remarks Protecting the most vulnerable is of critical importance during the crisis time and for driving equitable growth and reducing social exclusion in the long run. Social protection is important for promoting inclusive growth with equality of opportunities. Inclusive growth is part of the long-term solution for the global financial crisis. 17

22. 18 Teşekkürederim! Thank You! IEG: Improving Development Results Through Excellence in Evaluation http://www.worldbank.org/ieg/ http://www.ifc.org/ieg/ http://www.miga.org/ieg/