1. 1Challenge the future
Backcasting for 100% Renewables in
Scotland in 2030:
Introduction & Todays program
Jaco Quist, j.n.quist@tudelft.nl
Energy & Industry Section
Faculty of Technology, Policy, Management

2. 2Challenge the future
0. About myself:
• 1994-1997, STD program, organising
& supporting backcasting projects
• 1998 – 2000, TUD, conducting participatory backcasting
• 2001 – 2007, framework + evaluating backcasting & impacts
• Since 2007, research into backcasting, sustainability transitions,
sustainable & responsible innovation, technology assessment.
Teaching in Technology &Policy, Industrial Ecology, SET
• 2007: dissertation on the impact of backcasting
• 2010: European Roundtable Sustainable Concumption & Production (ERSCP)
• 2011: Special issue on backcasting (TFSC)
• 2013: Special volume sustainable innovation & business models (JCP)
• 2013: Special section learning & collaboration sustainable innovation (JCP)

3. 3Challenge the future
1. Backcasting: introduction
Backcasting: Create a desirable sustainable future first before
looking back from that future how it could have been achieved and
planning initial steps how to move towards that future.
Backcasting: Particularly useful in case of complex ‘wicked’
problems that include dominant trends; when market-based
solutions are insufficient; a need for a major change; long time
horizons allow strong alternatives (Dreborg ’96)
Backcasting: Intervention approach related to Constructive TA, and
Transition Mangement
Backcasting: Normative turn in foresight & more popular, e.g.
Gidden (2009) The politics of Climate Change, pp 98-100.
27-10-2011

4. 4Challenge the future
Present
Future
Forecasting
BAU Scenarios
Present
Future
Exploratory
Scenarios
Present
Future
Backcasting
Predict most
likely future
Explore alternative
futures
Assess feasibility of
desirable future(s)
27-10-2011

5. 5Challenge the future
2000 2050
TIME
Future-
Vision
E
C
O
E
F
F
I
C
I
E
N
C
Y
Milestones
Backcasting: from vision to action
CHARACTERISTICS
Explicitly normative
Participatory
System oriented,
Desired futures & changes (action-oriented)
Combines process, design, analysis
Transdisciplinary
Helpful if institutions / rule system lack

6. 6Challenge the future
June 4, 2014
Backcasting: 3 key elements
Vision
stakeholders learning
Content results
Process results
Impact

7. 7Challenge the future
Development of backcasting
• 1960s -> Normative Forecasting (Jantsch / Linstone)
Has evolved into roadmapping
• 1970s -> Energy Backcasting (Lovins/ Robinson/ Steen)
Revival, e.g. in Japan and UK (Tyndall)
• 1990s -> Sustainability backcasting (Höjer/ Bannister/ v Wee)
• Mid 1990s -> Participatory backcasting (NL/Swe/Can/UK)
Blending -> industrial ecology, adaptive management, TM
27-10-2011

8. 8Challenge the future
Backcasting: from vision to niche
• Backcasting works
• No science fiction / no pink
cloud thinking / no fairy tales
• Visions important in follow-up,
supported by networks , agency
• Not always follow-up
• Follow-up as niches, not yet
transitions,  stepping stones
• Repository.tudelft.nl or
www.eburon.nl

9. 9Challenge the future
Step 1 Strategic Problem orientation Analysis
Step 2 Normative future image Vision
Step 3 Backcasting Wat is necessary?
Step 4 Elaboration, analysis Action agenda
Step 5 Embedding, ‘implementation’ Follow-up
Methods: I Analysis, II Design, III Interaction, IV Management
Demands: i Normative, ii Process, iii Knowledge
Backcasting: methodological framework

10. 10Challenge the future
10
October 4, 2011 10
20502000 TIME
Vision of
the future
S
T
E
P
S
Backcasting: step by step
1. SPO
2. Make
vision
3. BC
4. Pathway &
Agenda
5. Embedding &
Implementatio
n

11. 11Challenge the future
Novel Protein Foods
40% Meat alternatives
in 2040 instead of meat
Groups of 3??
1. What changes are necessary (C, S, T)?
2. How can these changes be achieved?
3. Who (which stakeholders) are needed?
4. What are drivers and barriers for this System
Innovation?
Adjusting future vision allowed!
Today: backcasting excersise
Future Vision

12. 12Challenge the future
6/4/2014
Necessary changes
Culture Consumer & societal acceptance
different position of meat,
consumer benefits
Structure Smaller livestock and meat sector
(related policies), new NPF sector
Technology New knowledge and technology for
foods, production systems and
chains
Novel Protein Foods (NPF)

13. 13Challenge the future
WHAT-HOW-WHO
6/4/2014
WHAT HOW WHO
Better vegetarian foods Product development
Fundamenmtal rsesearch
Firms
Firms & research bodies
Awareness on issues of meat
consumption & production &
behavioural change by
consumers
Public campaigns
Education
Good attractive products
Taxing meat ,
Govt, ngo’s ,
Govt, educational bodies
Firms
Govt
Smaller meat/livestock
industry & growing vegetarian
protein food industry
Market developments
Subsidies & supportive
policies
Restructuring meat sector
including re-education
Firms & consumers
Govt,
Govt & educational bodies

14. 14Challenge the future
GLAMURS Green Lifestyles, Alternative Models, &
Upscaling Regional Sustainabilitiy
Backcasting for regional grassroots niches
Danube-
Bohemian
Forest
(Austria)
Saxony-
Anhanlt
(Germany)
Banat-Timis
(Romania)
Trentino Alto
Adige (Italy)
Rotterdam-
Delft-The
Hague (The
Netherlands)
Aberdeenshire
(Scotland, UK)
Galicia
(Spain)

15. 15Challenge the future
3 SUSTAINABLE ENERGY TEXEL:
DENNIS RICKEN SET THESIS WORK
 2007, ,municipality of Texel decided to go for self-sufficiency
 Most recent feasibility study indicate that it could not be achieved
 Municipality maintains ambition, but new strategy needed
 Goal: gaining insight into the opportunities, potentials and barriers
What are the opportunities, potentials and barriers for developing
and implementing a sustainable energy system that makes ,Island
Texel energy self-sufficient in 2020?
Main research question is formulated as follows:

16. 16Challenge the future
CONSTRUCTION SCENARIOS
 Also difference in storage and power infrastructure
Scenario A: Trend growth Scenario B: Energy conservation
Energy
supply
Centralized energy system Decentralized energy system
Electricity demand: 80.10 GWh Share Electricity demand: 100 GWh Share
Solar: solar fields
Wind: wind turbines
Geo: geothermal power plant
Bio: CHPs based on biogas
22%
35%
35%
28%
Solar: solar panels
Wind: small wind turbines
Bio: CHPs based on biogas
30%
18%
50%
Heat demand: 167.78 GWh Heat demand: 128.25 GWh
Geo: geothermal power plant
HCS: open and closed systems
Bio: co-digestion, CHP, WWTP
36%
45%
20%
Solar: solar thermal collectors
HCS: open and closed systems
Bio: (co-)digestion, CHP, WWTP
32%
35%
32%
Process demand: 9.81 GWh Process demand: 7.5 GWh
Bio: co-digestion, WWTP 100% Bio: (co-)digestion, WWTP 100%
Fuel demand: 115.82 GWh Fuel demand: 3.9 GWh
Bio: photobioreactors, cleaning 100% Bio: fermentation plant 100%

17. 17Challenge the future
Energy Delta Gas Research (EDGaR)
• Research project “The next 50 years”:
• What is a robust long-term sustainability strategy for the gas
sector?

18. 18Challenge the future
6 perspectives using Q-methodology
(Eefje Cuppen, Olga di Ruggerio)
1. Decentralized domestic sustainability with natural gas as backup
2. a) All-electric society, decentralized sustainability, no natural gas
2. b) Gas country the Netherlands
3. Widespread replacement of dirty fossil fuels by (natural) gas
4. Different technologies and systems simultaneously
5. Market-driven change, resisting lock-in of current situations and
systems, toward more sustainability

19. 19Challenge the future
100% renewables 2030
3 Subgroups for 3 visions
1. What changes are necessary (C, S, T)?
2. How can these changes be achieved?
3. Who (which stakeholders) are needed?
4. What are drivers and barriers for this System
Innovation?
Adjusting future vision allowed!
Today: Scotland backcasting excersise
Future Vision

20. 20Challenge the future
Program (1)
• 11.30 – 13.00 First round of visioning & backcasting
• Vision Lead introduction
• What are major parts/elements of vision (Technological, Cultural,
Structural)? (15 mins)
• What goals & targets to be achieved in 2030? (15 mins)
• Backcasting (in groups of 4-5) (12.15-12.40 hr)
• What changes are necessary (C, S, T)?
• How can these changes be achieved?
• Who (which stakeholders) are needed?
• Backcasting Report Back (12.40-13.00 hr)

21. 21Challenge the future
Program (2)
• 14.00 – 15.30 Scenario Elaboration for 3 visions in teams of 4/5
• Defining Pathways (2015-2020-2030) (40 minutes)
• What activities needed in government domain (over time)?
• What activities needed in business-utilities domain (over time)?
• What activities needed in research-knowledge domain?
• What activities needed in civil society-public interest domain?
• What is a good follow-up agenda and next steps?
• Exchange within one vision group (25 minutes)
• Preparing plenary presentations (25 minutes)

22. 22Challenge the future
Transitions: CO2 neutral energy
2000 2030
Fossile
energy
CO2 neutral
Clean fossile
incl. CO2
sequestration
Windpark
on sea
Biofuel out
of wast
Infrastructure
for hydrogen
Storage of heat;
use of heat pumpsPower-heat
coupling at
domestic scale
Transition
PV parks
on land

23. 23Challenge the future
Program (3)
• 16.00 – 17.15 Plenary Reporting & Discussion
• 16.00-16.20 Stand Alone Scottish Network Scenario
• 16.20-16.40 Local Energy Autarky Scenario (Pod)
• 16.40-17.00 UK Centric Scenario (Plenary)
• Final Discussion & Next Steps (17.00-17.15)
• 17.15 – 18.30 Reception and Networking

24. 24Challenge the future
In Conclusion
• Backcasting explained
• Examples given
• Todays progam described
• Let’s get started !
1. UK Centric scenario
• (Plenary, Iain Staffel, Gary Polhil)
2. Scotland Alone scenario
• (Breakout, Stewart Haseldine, Tony Craig)
3. Local Energy Autarky scenario
• (Pod, Andrew Peacock, Jaco Quist)