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Hier sehen sie die Weltkarte mit grünen und mit roten Ländern. Unabdingbare Voraussetzungen für einen Kredit bei einer Bank ist die Leistungsfähigkeit des Kreditnehmers. Im Falle von Staatsanleihen heisst das für unser Fondsmanagement, Einkünfte in Relation zu den offenen Forderungen zu setzen. Die rotgefärbten Staaten haben entweder bedenklich hohe Forderungen und oder bedenklich niedrige Einkünfte, sodass unser Fondsmanagent, wie jeder ökonomisch denkender Mensch lieber das Geld den grünen Staaten leiht. Unten sehen Sie ein Balkenchart, die roten Balken spiegeln einen großen Teil der Benchmark unseres Fonds oder auch gängige alternative Benchmarks wieder. Unsere Investitionen liegen in Korea, Australien, Indonesien usw., sprich in Ländern mit niedrigen Forderungen im Vergleich zu ihren Schulden Eine Staatsanleihe ist ein Papier, daß einen Zins
Main Idea: Highlight a famous quote from legendary investor, Sir John Templeton. “ Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” — Sir John Templeton This is one of Sir John Templeton’s most famous quotes, and for good reason. If you think back to the most recent bear and bull market cycles, that statement really rings true. Even in terms of the present day. Despite the fact that the market is significantly higher today than we were at the low in 2008, many indicators seem to suggest that we are still somewhere between pessimism and skepticism in the current market cycle. Transition: Are there reasons for optimism in the equity markets?
Main Idea: The potential for increased consumption means potential profits for companies. A growing consumer base and rising global middle class presents some very compelling opportunities for companies that can position themselves to take advantage. Here we see the United States all the way to the left, and three examples of nations where the middle class population is expected to grow significantly over the next decade. The bars represent the total population of these countries. Over 300 million for the US, 190 million for Brazil, and India and China with well over 1 billion people. (CLICK) Now let’s take a look at three examples of consumer products, and how much penetration there has been in the US and abroad. The three we’ve chosen are automobiles, computers and cellular phones. As you can see, just under 50% of the US population has a car, over 80% have access to a computer in their household and almost 90% have a cellular phone. Let’s take a look at these same products and the penetration in these other nations. When compared with the US, autos and computers are far lower. In fact, to surpass the amount of cars in the US, China would only need about 9% of their population to be car owners. It’s also interesting to note that although India and China each have more cellular phone subscribers than there are Americans, there is still quite a bit of room to grow. Transition: These trends don’t just help companies outside the United States.
Main Idea: Many domestic companies also recognize and benefit from the trend of the global consumer. Many companies in the S&P 500 derive a majority of their sales from overseas. This is just a small list of companies that you may not think of as being global, and the amount of sales they derive from outside the US. Pfizer – 58% 3M – 64% Hewlett Packard – 69% McDonalds – 66% Coca Cola – 76% Google – 51% Qualcomm – 91% Apple 55% Transition: One of the drivers of success for these companies has been their continued innovation. If there’s one thing we can all count on in the decade ahead, it’s that…
Main Idea: We can’t know the future precisely, only that advances will occur. This is a now infamous quote from Ken Olson, who was the President and Chairman of Digital Equipment Corp. in 1977. It illustrates that at one time, even the leading minds in the field of technology couldn’t fathom how their products would evolve and the type of appetite and applications there would ultimately be. Ken may have never imagined that by the year 2008, as we referenced a few slides earlier over 75% of Americans would have access to a computer in their homes. Note to presenter: Digital Equipment Corp was acquired in June 1998 by Compaq, which subsequently merged with HP in May 2002. Transition: One industry in particular can help bring into focus just how radically innovation can alter our environment.
Main Point: Illustrate the impact of innovation. Consider the many different ways there have been over the years to purchase and listen to music. (CLICK) The bars here show annual units sold. Does anyone remember 8-tracks? 8-Track sales peaked in 1978, and 134 million units sold. That may sound like a lot, but they were little more than a blip in history, with sales tapering off to zero by 1982. (CLICK) Let’s look at vinyl records, which were around for some time before our data here became available, and at the same time as 8-Tracks. Sales for vinyl records peaked in 1977 at 554 million units sold. (CLICK) Next came cassettes which grew in popularity in the late 1980s and peaked at 530 million units in 1990. (CLICK) Next came an innovation that revolutionized music as we knew it, the compact disc, or CD. CD sales dwarfed those of both vinyl records and cassettes. Just 4 years after the peak of cassette sales, CD sales eclipsed them on an annual basis. CD sales peaked in 1999, at 995 million units sold. It was hard to imagine anything would ever be more advanced. (CLICK) But then came the digital music revolution. In the 5 years that sales have been tracked for digitized music (i.e. MP3, etc) downloaded music has already eclipsed annual sales of CDs and in 2008 there were over 1.1 billion music downloads. (CLICK) Here’s what the evolution looks like when you put it all together. The point is, that the adoption time for new technology has continued to compress as new technologies are introduced. Also, given the innovation that’s taken place over the past 35 years, do you think digital music as we know it will be the end? It’s impossible to predict what the future will look like, but one thing is certain: innovation will continue. Transition: It’s been said that the only constant is change.
Main Idea: Highlight some of the exciting technological innovations worth watching. Here is just a small sample of some of the exciting technological advances that today are in their early stages: Green Energy: How we create energy that takes into account the wellbeing of the natural world and the responsible use of its natural resources. Nanotechnology: the study of the controlling of matter on an atomic and molecular scale. Nanotechnology has the potential to create many new materials and devices with a vast range of applications, such as in medicine, electronics and energy production. Regenerative medicine: the process of creating living, functional tissues to repair or replace tissue or organ function lost due to age, disease, damage, or congenital defects Infrared technology – being used more and more in the military to locate potentially hostile enemies, and domestically by firefighters to locate civilians who may be trapped. Robotic surgery: the rapidly emerging field of robotic-assisted minimally invasive surgery Cloud computing: Internet - (&quot;cloud-&quot;) based development and use of computer technology (“computing”). Transition: Innovation continues at a rapid pace, and the only way to take advantage of these advances and profit alongside these companies as an investor is through equities.