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2015 august presentation stockholm mba programm

Presentation for Russian students attending MBA programm at the Stockholm School of Economics

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2015 august presentation stockholm mba programm

  1. 1. ‘A shift from an era of change to a change of era’ Strategic Business Planning in the 21th century Amsterdam, August 26th 2015 Han Mesters Sector banker Business Services ABN Amro Bank
  2. 2. Content 1 Conceptual framework: disruption! The ‘Why” Innovation and the end of growth 2 3 Findings4
  3. 3. 1. Conceptual framework: disruption
  4. 4. • Crisis • Demography • Governance • Generation Z • Geo-political shifts • Culture • Environment Where are we?
  5. 5. Work: the Big picture
  6. 6. 2 facts of life: 1. Change is exponential (Kurzweil - Singularity) 2. The Internet revolution has only just begun (ongoing ‘Ryanisation’ of business models) Computing (processing) Communication (bandwidth) Storage Content Moore’s Law Fiber Law Disk Law Community Law (Metcalf’s Law) Doubles every 18 months Doubles every 9 months Doubles every 12 months 2n (where n= # of People)
  7. 7. 7 Someone has Hit the “Reset” Button (Jeffrey Immelt, CEO, General Electric) We believe: ‘The economy is in an early stage of a fundamental change with regard to the way work is organised, managed and executed’ We know: Many companies are looking for their ‘Why” (why do they exist?) Ethos: ‘is a Greek word meaning "character" that is used to describe the guiding beliefs or ideals that characterize a community, nation, or ideology. The Greeks also used this word to refer to the power of music to influence its hearer's emotions, behaviors, and even morals’
  8. 8. Nothing is safe……
  9. 9. IBM’s Watson and professionals… ‘singularity’ effect
  10. 10. PayPal does a real-time credit score in millisec., based on your EBay purchase history http://www.businessinsider.com/these-startups-are-replacing-banks-2014- 2?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+typepad%2Falleyinsider%2Fsilicon_alley_insider+%28Silicon+Alley+Insider%29&IR=T Bron: http://fermi.vc/post/72559525330/disaggregation-of-a-bank
  11. 11. : Smaller, faster, cheaper
  12. 12. Fuzzy sector borders PayPal does a real-time credit score in millisec., based on your EBay purchase history
  13. 13. Forget Singularity:‘You don’t know what you don’t know’
  14. 14. How to deal with Black Swan: portfolio’s and focus on impact, not only chance chance ‘By analyzing past returns, a distribution of returns is developed and the probabilities of achieving a range of returns are calculated according to standard deviation’. Hmmm (…) Extreme events have happened at a far higher rate than the bell curve model predicts. For example, the October 1987 market crash was statistically impossible. It couldn’t happen. Yet it did. The same impossibility applies to the back-to-back market crashes of 2000-2002 and 2007-2008. In fact, severe losses (20% or more) happen about 5 times more frequently than estimated by most statistical models! Source: www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/3rdQtr2011IFT.html
  15. 15. Innovation and institutions: unhappy marriage “The rationale for a large firm is that the internal transaction costs are lower than the external ones,” he believes. “But the Internet has made external transaction costs lower, so the enterprise can become much smaller.” IBM
  16. 16. 16 Turbulence of the environment increases Source: Ansoff
  17. 17. Communities on the rise
  18. 18. Between ‘Markets & Hierarchy’ and ‘The Nature of the Firm’ (Ronald Coase) Clay Shirky: “Since we have grown up with hierarchical institutions as models for organizational structure, it’s hard to visualize another model. But this is where social media has come in. The development of technological features such as #hashtags has allowed people with like interests to find each other and organize around ideas outside a traditional institutional model. (…) So we have an old way of viewing the organization of people (thesis: hierarchical institutions). Now there’s a new way of looking at things (antithesis: unmanaged cooperative collaboration). We (as a society) are still trying to figure out how to navigate this (synthesis) to produce results.
  19. 19. September 2013….longer term impact of ICT on work • Social intelligence • Creativity • Perception and manipulation
  20. 20. Experience based economy… Cloud / sofware abonnementen
  21. 21. Scandinavian/Dutch culture. The DNA for success? Power distance (hierarchy) 0 20 40 60 80 100 VS Canada Duitsland Japan Frankrijk Nederland HongKong Indonesië WestAfrika Rusland China Masculinity 0 20 40 60 80 100 VS Canada Duitsland Japan Frankrijk Nederland HongKong Indonesië WestAfrika Rusland China Low power distance, feminine culture
  22. 22. Trust matters a lot
  23. 23. 2. The ‘Why’
  24. 24. The heart of the problem
  25. 25. Companies experience 3 major problems 1. Gross margin pressure 2. Unique selling point/competitive edge 3. Value added proposition -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Brunel The Netherlands Adecco The Netherlands USG People The Netherlands* Randstad Group Netherlands Olympia Nederland Bruto marge EBIT marge 2010 2009 2010 2009 2009 2010 2010 2009 2010 2009 1) USG People, EBIT Margin = EBITA Margin, Gross Margin not available, estimate Bron: Annual Reports
  26. 26. Standard ‘reflex’ to these Three Big Challenges
  27. 27. The ‘WHY’: ABN Amro roots: 1824 NHM: Nederlandsche Handel-Maatschappij De N.V. Nederlandsche Handel-Maatschappij werd op initiatief van koning Willem I in Den Haag opgericht op dinsdag 9 maart 1824 De doelstelling was (Art. 59) "bevordering van handel, scheepvaart, scheepsbouw, visserij, landbouw en (het fabriekswezen)", in voortzetting van wat tijdens de Franse overheersing van 1795 tot 1813 was ingezet. Het hogere doel was volgens de koning dat de NHM zou fungeren als een “large lever to stimulate and support the national wealth of our country".
  28. 28. Professional services: From a Brand to a ‘Stand’
  29. 29. 29 Can institutions make this shift….. ► autonomy/trust ► mastery ► purpose Bron : Daniel Pink ‘The purpose of work is to work on purpose!’ Joey Reiman
  30. 30. 3. Innovation and the end of growth
  31. 31. Stallpoints for growth 20 Stallpoints for Growth Market cap In $ bln 10 30 40
  32. 32. Causes for Stallpoints Bron: http://hbr.org/2008/03/when-growth-stalls/ar/1 ‘Four categories account for more than half the occurrences of root causes we cataloged— • premium-position captivity, • innovation management breakdown, • premature core abandonment, • and talent bench shortfall
  33. 33. Profitability without growth……… S&P 500 Q3 2014 Source: www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-08/q3-2014-earnings-breakdown-do-you-still-believe-miracles
  34. 34. S&P 500 Eps growth + 268% How? Share buy backs…with debt
  35. 35. S&P 500 in 2015: follow the cash….
  36. 36. Sell side estimates 30 companies of the Dow Jones Industrial Average http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-14/welcome-revenue-recession
  37. 37. The People versus the Balanced Score Card: ‘Death by KPI’ ‘Culture attracts the right professionals, who will generate added value’
  38. 38. Case: (Dutch) Recruitment…a few years ago Publish job opening Search with profile in mind Review applicationst Approach prospect Determine profile of candidate Select candidate ActiveserachPassivesearch
  39. 39. …..and now Adverteren van vacature Zoeken met profiel Beoordelen sollicitaties Benaderen prospect Opstellen profiel Selectie kandidaat ActiefwervenPassiefwerven
  40. 40. Non financial (soft) indicators are the basis for future competitive edge
  41. 41. The instrument of value creating: massive lay-offs? Source: Bloomberg
  42. 42. What’s going on? Disruption from new start-ups is here to stay
  43. 43. No science fiction anymore…
  44. 44. 1. Agility score: • % of non owned assets/contingency (non employed) labour 2. Innovation score 3. ‘Futureproofness’ of ICT infrastructure 4. Company culture Strategy is forward looking: what to look for in a time of high change? Hard lesson for banks and accountant: Assessment of ‘Probability of Default’ driven by future based variables, not by historical financials!
  45. 45. Different types of innovation 1. Strengthen: Slight improvement in existing product/service 2. Stretch: Offering existing products/services to new clients or offering new products/services to existing clients 3. Blue Ocean: New service, new market Incrementeel Disruptief
  46. 46. Rise of the Network economy
  47. 47. Passion and craftmanship belong to an analog world?
  48. 48. The end of ‘pace setting’ leadership The eldest of four children, Dunham enlisted in the Marine Corps in 2000. Jason Dunham stepped into the role of protector long before he ever donned a Marine uniform. As a teenager, he put himself between a friend and an adversary to protect his buddy during a fight. As a brother, he would warn his little sister to watch out for boys. As a man, he dreamed of becoming a state trooper — so long as work didn’t take him too far from home, where he could keep an eye on those he loved most. Dunham died as he had lived, said the minister at his burial last May: “Caring more for others than himself.”
  49. 49. Food for thought
  50. 50. 4. Findings
  51. 51. The rise of the network economy 1. Facts of Life not well understood 2. Structural/disruptive changes outweigh the business cycle 3. ‘Never waste a good crisis’ 4. Growth returns in 2015 or: ‘profitability without growth’? 5. Innovate or die 6. Institutions are ….so nineties? 7. The Innovator’s dilemma indeed: most of your clients are not smarter than we are …but the wisdom of the crowd beats everybody 8. Trust is crucial for letting your professionals shine 9. You don’t know what you don’t know 10.Culture determines success ‘culture eats strategy for breakfast’, but… 11...culture is not measured/appraised well enough