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CREA Revises Annual Resale Housing Forecast
OTTAWA – November 5, 2010 – The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has
lowered its forecast for home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service®
(MLS®
)
Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations for 2010 and 2011.
Sales activity in the third quarter of 2010 began on a weak footing, but gained traction as
the quarter progressed. Improving momentum for home sales activity suggests the
resale housing market is stabilizing, but weaker than expected third quarter activity has
reduced CREA’s annual forecast.
National sales activity is now expected to reach 442,200 units in 2010, representing an
annual decline of 4.9 per cent. While monthly levels for sales activity are stabilizing,
year-over-year comparisons are likely to remain stretched well into 2011 due to the
record-level activity reported in late 2009 and early 2010.
Lackluster economic and job growth, muted consumer confidence, and the resumption
of interest rate increases are expected in 2011. Against this economic backdrop,
national home sales activity is forecast to decline by nine per cent to 402,500 units.
“Interest rates are expected to resume their return to more normal levels next year, but
will still be at levels that are friendly to the housing market,” said Georges Pahud,
CREA’s President. “For the tenth year in a row, more than 400,000 homes are expected
to change hands over the MLS®
Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and
Associations next year.”
Levels for sales activity and new listings have swung widely until recent months. Despite
their volatility, movements in sales activity and new listings have remained in synch and
have kept the resale housing market balanced since early 2010. The overall supply of
homes for sale has also been trending lower in recent months. The resale housing
market has remained balanced on a national basis and in most provinces, resulting in
stable average price trends.
The national average home price is forecast to rise 3.1 per cent in 2010 to $330,200,
with increases in all provinces. The small revision to CREA’s average price forecast
reflects changes to the forecast for provincial sales activity and corresponding provincial
contributions to the national average price calculation. The balance between supply and
demand is forecast to remain stable, resulting in stable price trends.
Modest average price gains are forecast in 2011 in all provinces except British
Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario. Lower sales activity in British Columbia and Ontario are
expected to result in a 1.3 per cent decline in the national average price to $326,000.
“Housing demand and supply is stabilizing,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief
Economist. “That’s good news for home buyers, who will feel less hurried to make an
offer than they did when transitory factors ignited housing demand in early 2010. It’s also

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good news for home sellers, who will feel more confident about price stability now that
the housing market has become balanced.”
“Interest rates are widely expected to remain low for some time due to recent downward
revisions by the Bank of Canada to its outlooks for economic growth and inflation.
Consumer sentiment will likely remain under pressure until economic prospects improve
meaningfully,” said Klump.
“In the meantime, many households will be focused on paying down their debts before
the Bank of Canada resumes hiking interest rates next year,” Klump added. Economic
uncertainty is likely to keep potential homebuyers in a cautious mood, so the
continuation of low and stable interest rates is unlikely to cause housing demand or
prices to swell.”
For more information, please contact:
Linda Kristal
Director of Communications
The Canadian Real Estate Association
613-237-7111
Email: lkristal@crea.ca

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CREA Residential Market Forecast:
Sales activity
forecast
2009
2009 Annual
percentage
change
2010
Forecast
2010 Annual
percentage
change
2011
Forecast
2011 Annual
percentage
change
Canada 465,073 7.7 442,200 -4.9 402,500 -9.0
British Columbia 85,028 23.4 72,700 -14.5 61,900 -14.9
Alberta 57,543 2.7 49,300 -14.3 46,550 -5.6
Saskatchewan 11,095 5.3 10,700 -3.6 10,800 0.9
Manitoba 13,086 -3.2 13,200 0.9 13,450 1.9
Ontario 195,840 8.2 193,100 -1.4 173,700 -10.0
Quebec 79,116 3.1 80,250 1.4 74,850 -6.7
New Brunswick 7,003 -7.3 6,800 -2.9 6,650 -2.2
Nova Scotia 10,021 -7.8 9,750 -2.7 8,800 -9.7
Prince Edward Island 1,404 -0.6 1,420 1.1 1,260 -11.3
Newfoundland 4,416 -5.9 4,450 0.8 4,050 -9.0
Average price
forecast
2009
2009 Annual
percentage
change
2010
Forecast
2010 Annual
percentage
change
2011
Forecast
2011 Annual
percentage
change
Canada 320,333 5.0 330,200 3.1 326,000 -1.3
British Columbia 465,725 2.4 487,500 4.7 476,400 -2.3
Alberta 341,201 -3.3 350,100 2.6 349,100 -0.3
Saskatchewan 233,695 4.1 241,400 3.3 244,200 1.2
Manitoba 201,343 5.8 216,800 7.7 222,800 2.8
Ontario 318,366 5.3 336,200 5.6 334,000 -0.7
Quebec 225,412 4.7 231,900 2.9 237,400 2.4
New Brunswick 154,906 6.3 157,900 1.9 160,700 1.8
Nova Scotia 196,690 3.6 205,100 4.3 207,600 1.2
Prince Edward Island 146,044 4.4 148,700 1.8 150,300 1.1
Newfoundland 206,374 15.6 233,200 13.0 242,900 4.2
About The Canadian Real Estate Association
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada's largest single-industry trade associations,
representing more than 99,000 real estate Brokers/agents and salespeople working through more than 100
real estate Boards and Associations.