The document discusses the challenges facing education and workforce development in the early 21st century labor market. It summarizes that the recent recession was the longest and most severe in decades, unemployment rose significantly across all education levels, and the nature of work has shifted from permanent to temporary roles requiring lifelong learning. It recommends aligning education more closely with economic and labor market needs through strategies like using labor market data, incentivizing lifelong learning, and allocating resources based on performance.

1. Education and Workforce Development
in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
Carl Van Horn, Ph.D.
Professor and Director
John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development
and Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy
April 25, 2010
www.heldrich.rutgers.edu

2. Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
2
The Katrina of Recessions
 The nation’s longest recession; will take years to recover
 Highest official unemployment rate in 30 years
 Over 17 million officially unemployed; millions more
discouraged or underemployed
 8.5 million jobs lost since December 2007
 Longest average length of unemployment in 62 years
 11 million more workers today than in 2000, but the same
number of jobs

3. Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
3
High Unemployment at All Levels of Education
Those with more formal education experience lower levels of
unemployment, but the unemployment rate has risen significantly
for each group as compared to 10 years ago.
The Unemployment Rate by Education Level
5.8
3.5
2.5
1.7
15.3
10.5
9
5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Unemployment Rate-Less than
a High School Diploma
Unemployment Rate-High
School Graduates, No College
Unemployment Rate-Some
College or Associate Degree
Unemployment Rate-Bachelor's
Degree or Higher
Dec. 1999 Dec. 2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, December 2009; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program, December 2009.

4. Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
4
New Realities of Work
in the 21st Century Economy
Mid to Late 20th Century
 Permanent
 Stable Economy
 Loyalty
 “One and Done” Education
 Defined Benefit Pension
 “Early” Retirement
 Safety Net for Most
Early 21st Century
 Temporary/Contingent
 Volatile Economy
 Ambiguity/Disaffection
 Lifelong Learning
 Defined Contribution
 “Never” Retire
 Safety Net for Fewer

5. Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
5
Caution: Predicting Job Growth is Difficult
Predicting which occupations will experience the largest growth is very
difficult. While some occupations met or came close to expectations, many
of these predictions were off by a long shot. Job growth depends largely on
macroeconomic trends and industry growth, which are difficult to forecast
and can be derailed by an economic downturn.
Occupations Projected to Experience the Largest Job Growth from 1998-2008, Against Actual Growth to 2008
551 493 463 451 439 433 375433 374
-1161
-187
3
540
137 71 121
577 563 556
-85
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Systems
Analysts
Retail
Salespersons
Cashiers General
Managers and
Top Executives
Truck Drivers,
Light and
Heavy
Office Clerks,
General
Registered
Nurses
Computer
Support
Specialists
Personal Care
and Home
Health Aides
Teacher
Assistants
EmploymentLevel(inthousands)
Change Projected Actual Change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections Program, Employment Projections 1998-2008, news release,
November 30, 1999.

6. Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
6
Will Most Jobs Expected to Grow Require Education and Training
Beyond High School, but Not a Four-Year Degree?
The occupations with the largest projected growth require a wide range of
education and skill levels, indicating opportunities for job seekers at various skill
and education levels.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Program, Employment
Projections 2008-2018, news release, December 11, 2009.
Most Significant Source of Postsecondary Education Required
for the 30 Occupations with the Largest Employment Growth
Projected, 2008-2018
7%
33%
57%
3%
Associate Degree
Short-term On-the-job-
Training
Moderate-term On-the-job
Training
Postsecondary Vocational
Award

7. Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
7
Where are the Big Job Opportunities in the Near Future?
Occupations predicted for the largest job growth are ones that already
comprise a major source of employment. Occupations such as nurses, home
health aides, retail salespersons, and office clerks cannot be outsourced to
other countries.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Program, Employment Projections 2008-2018, news release, December 11, 2009.
Ten Occupations with the Largest Projected Growth, 2008-2018
582
461
400 394 376 375 359
279 276 257
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Registered
Nurses
Home Health
Aides
Customer
Service
Representatives
Combined Food
Preparation and
Serving Workers,
including Fast
Food
Personal and
Home Care
Aides
Retail
Salespersons
Office Clerks,
General
Accountants
and Auditors
Nursing Aides,
Orderlies, and
Attendants
Postsecondary
Teachers
(inthousands)

8. Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
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Are Green Jobs and Training the Next Big Thing?
 Most “green jobs” are traditional jobs with a “green”
component
 Competing and confusing credentials
 Amateur and experienced providers entering the training
“Gold Rush”
 Huge disparity in training quality
 Online training is the new frontier
Source: Jennifer Lenahan-Cleary, “Going Green: Ensuring Success for Green Job Training Programs and Participants,”
presented at the U.S. Department of Employment and Training Administration Heartland Conference, April 7-9, 2010.

9. Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
9
The Green Job Education and Training Landscape
is Not Unique
Growing interest from students and job
seekers and government funding have
fostered…
Trend #1: “Crowding at the
Bottom”
Trend #1: “Crowding at the
Bottom”
Trend #2: Weak Connections
between Job Market & Related
Training
Trend #2: Weak Connections
between Job Market & Related
Training
Trend #3: Lack of Career Ladder
Transparency
Trend #3: Lack of Career Ladder
Transparency
Trend #4: Aggressive Recruiting
especially for Online Courses
Trend #4: Aggressive Recruiting
especially for Online Courses

10. Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
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What’s in Demand?
Cross-Cutting Knowledge, Skills, and Abilities
 Critical Thinking and Problem Solving - making decisions, solving
problems, and taking action
 Effective Communication - the ability to synthesize and transmit
your ideas both in written and oral formats
 Collaboration and Team Building - the ability to work effectively
with others, including those with diverse groups and with opposing
points of view
 Creativity and Innovation - the ability to see what’s not there and
making something happen
 Math/Science/Engineering/Technology Skills
Source: American Management Association and P21, “AMA 2010 Critical Skills Survey: Executive Summary,” April 2010.

11. Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
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Paradigm Evolution in Education
and Workforce Development
Prevailing Paradigms
 Access (1960s+)
 Quality/Competitiveness
(1970s and 1980s+)
 Graduation/Attainment
(1990s+)
 Learning, Alignment, Labor
Market Outcomes (2000+)
Dominant Strategies
 Funding Formulas; Financial
Aid; Institutional Growth
 Standards/Assessments K-12
 Policy Development,
Reporting
 Skills & Abilities, Performance
Accountability

12. Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
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Aligning Higher Education with Economic and
Labor Market Goals
 Several states are developing comprehensive education strategies
that redefine the role of education to include being accountable
for aligning with — and helping drive — economic prosperity as
well as economic opportunity. These states are…
• Using labor market intelligence about employer needs,
• Reforming curriculum to reflect the requirements of the
global economy,
• Measuring the success of education on students’
employment outcomes and the ability of postsecondary
education to serve the region’s employers, and
• Modifying funding formulas to incent or reward progress
toward strategic goals.
Sources: National Governors Association (NGA) Center for Best Practices, “New Ground for State Economic Policy:
Holding Higher Education Accountable for Meeting State Needs in a Knowledge-Based, Innovation Economy”
(draft). Maria Heidkamp, “Initiative Strategies to Realign Postsecondary Education Outcomes with State Economic
Development Goals,” presented at the NGA Center for Best Practices’ institute, Increasing Postsecondary
Credential Attainment by Adults, March 2010.

13. Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
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New Goals and Strategies for Educational Institutions
and Policymakers
 Link higher education and workforce development with
economic development
 Bolster workforce preparation strategies — standards,
curriculum reform, experiential learning
 Incent lifelong learning opportunities (Pell Grant, UI Reform)

14. Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
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New Goals and Strategies for Educational Institutions
and Policymakers
 Develop better labor market intelligence (Talent
Networks/Sector Strategies)
 Create culture of accountability, informed choice, and
consumer protection — Consumer Report Card, Voluntary
Framework for Accountability
 Allocate resources based on performance

15. Education and Workforce Development in the Early 21st Century Labor Market
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Contact Information
Dr. Carl Van Horn
vanhorn@rci.rutgers.edu
732.932.4100 x6305
www.heldrich.rutgers.edu