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SOCIAL MEDIA
ATTRIBUTION
Beyond User Engagement                         July 2011




     Quantifying the contribution of Social Media
            in your campaign architecture
Havas Digital
                                                               Social Media Attribution
                                                               Beyond User Engagement




Lead Contributors
                       Katrin Ribant
                       EVP, Data Platforms
                       Havas Digital Global
                       katrin.ribant@havasdigital.com



                       Dejan Duzevik
                       Chief Technology Officer
                       Concentric
                       dejan@concentricroi.com



                       Arnaud Parent
                       Director, Research & Development, PhD
                       Havas Media
                       arnaud.parent@fr.havasmedia.com




© 2011 Havas Digital                                                                  2
Havas Digital
                                                                                                     Social Media Attribution
                                                                                                     Beyond User Engagement




CONTENTS
1. Executive summary.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2. What are the challenges with
   Social Media Attribution?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
                            .
3. Building on Attribution for Display,
   Search and Video.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
4. How do we address Social Media
   Attribution challenges?.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
5. What are the benefits of Artemis’
   Social Media Attribution?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
                             .
6. Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
             .
7. Resources.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
8. Contact details. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20




© 2011 Havas Digital                                                                                                                          3
Havas Digital
                                                              Social Media Attribution
                                                              Beyond User Engagement




Executive Summary                                                               1
As use of Social Media continues to grow globally, Social Media spend is on a growing
path. Marketers stock up on Fans and Followers and are looking for ways to monetize their
Social Media success and gain an understanding of how these new engagement channels
work with their overall media spend.

Taking Social Media beyond the “Likes” into understanding its true value means marketers
need the tools to quantify the contribution of each piece of their media mix.

With 68% of Facebook users saying that they follow friends’ advice when it comes to dis-
covering and buying new brands/products (1) , managing word of mouth is a necessity that
goes beyond reputation management. For ecommerce marketers, Social Media market-
ing is not just an option any more, it becomes a mandate.

This Insights piece outlines Havas Digital’s methodology for
attribution across Display, Search, Video and Social Media,
showing real-world examples of applications to the ecommerce
world as well as laying out the framework in which the analysis
is being carried out.




© 2011 Havas Digital                                                                   4
Social Media’s
                                  growing importance
                                             in the marketing mix
Word of Mouth combined with Search
are the most powerful drivers of consumer behavior

Have some degree of trust* in the following forms               US online buyers who were led to
of advertising (Apr. 2009)                                      their purchase by a search engine
                                                                or Social Media site (Nov. 2010)
Recommendations from people known            90%                % of total

Consumer opinions posted online              70%

Brand websites                               70%

Editorial content (e.g. newspaper article)   69%

Brand sponsorships                           64%

TV                                           62%

Newspaper                                    61%

Magazines                                    59%

Billboards/outdoor advertising               55%

Radio                                        55%

Emails signed up for                         54%
                                                                    Search
Ads before movies                            52%
                                                                    51%          Social
Search engine results ads                    41%

Online video ads                             37%
                                                                                 1%
                                                                                        Search&Social
Online banner ads                            33%
                                                                                              48%
Textads on mobile phones                     24%


Source: The Nielsen Company                                     Source: comScore Inc., 2011
* E.g. 90 percent of respondents trusted “completely” or
“somewhat” recommendations from people they know.




Social Networking is where people
spend most of their online time

US consumers who spend 1+ hour on Social Network                Time spent on online activities, by type
activities per week, Q2 2008 - Q3 2010                          (Sep. 2010)
                                                                Hours per week spent on activity
% of respondents
                                                     66%
                                         64% 65% 65%
                                  61%
                            59%
                     54%
             46%
38% 39%
                                                                   Email           Social         Interest
 Q2     Q3    Q4      Q1     Q2    Q3    Q4     Q1    Q2   Q3      4.4              4.6             3.9
2008                 2009                      2010

Source: Interpret, December 16, 2010                            Note: n=48,804
                                                                Source: TNS, “Digital Life”. October 10, 2010
MANAGING WORD OF MOUTH IS CRITICAL


 Fortune 500 companies with a Twitter account*,                  US Facebook users who are more likely
 2009 and 2010                                                   to buy a product or visit a retailer
                                                                 based on a positive Facebook friend
 % of total                                                      referral (Mar. 2010)
                                                                 % of respondents




              35%                    60%
               2009                    2010

 Note: *with tweets made in the past 30 days.
                                                                      YES 68%                     NO 32%
 Source: University of Massachusetts Dartmouth Center of
 Marketing Research, “The Fortune 500 and Social Media: A        Source: Morpace, “Facebook’s Impact on
 Longitudinal Study of Blogging, Twitter and Facebook Usage by   Retailers”, provided to eMarketer. April 1, 2010
 America’s Largest Companies”. October 6, 2010




 “Social network advertising is real and growing.
  International markets will grow even more than US markets”                                       eMarketer

 Social network ad revenues worldwide, 2009 - 2012               Facebook ad revenues, 2009 - 2012
 Billions and % change                                           Billions

                                                                 Worldwide $0.74          $1.86    $4.05   $5.74
                                                 $8.09
                                                (35.6%)          Non US        $0.18      $0.65    $1.86   $2.87
                                                                 US            $0.56      $1.21    $2.19   $2.87

                            $5.97
                           (71.6%)



            $3.48
           (47.6%)
 $2.36
(20.3%)



                                                                                   2009   2010     2011    2012

 2009         2010          2011                 2012            % change            US     Non US     Worldwide
                                                                 (2012 vs. 2009)     417%   1,468%     678%

 Source: eMarketer. January 2011                                 Note: numbers may not add up to total due
                                                                 to rounding. Source: eMarketer, January 2011




How can marketers achieve accountability
                                for their social advertising spend?
Havas Digital
                                                                       Social Media Attribution
                                                                       Beyond User Engagement




What are the challenges with
Social Media attribution?
Digital attribution methodologies that rely on user-based data are great at helping mar-
                                                                                          2
keters understand which combinations of channels work best for their most valuable cus-
tomers. A de facto standard of current approaches is the “last click” attribution model,
which ignores most of the wealth of user-level data and touch points in the consumer
decision path.
Large portions of Social Media spend escape traditional tracking techniques, whether
marketers use Web Analytics tools or Ad servers to measure their marketing ROI. Social
comments, also referred to as “buzz,” are the most obvious example of Social Media
activity that cannot be tracked through Web Analytics or Ad serving technology. Tools
that allow measurement of Social comments provide information about users and/or
their Social and intent graphs as well as volumes of comments and sentiment analysis.
However, this information lives in a different silo than impressions, clicks or website activ-
ity from Display or Search campaigns.
Traditional marketing mix modeling methodologies, in turn, have difficulties accounting
for differences between individuals and are not well suited to help marketers with Digital
and Social Media attribution. Havas Digital has pioneered Digital attribution beyond
last click and is now building upon this foundation to devise a truly accountable frame-
work for Social Media attribution.


                                                                                           GEEK’S
                                                                                           CORNER

What is Last Click attribution?
The default rule in online attribution is that the last exposure before conversion gets the full
credit, with clicks taking priority over impressions. In other words, no matter how many different
creatives a consumer has previously been exposed to, the last click before purchase is attributed
100% of the revenue generated. If there was no click in the journey, the last impression gets credit
for the conversion.


                  IMPRESSION          CLICK         IMPRESSION             SALES



                                                    100% Attribution

The Last Click attribution has been thoroughly criticized for not giving credit to early funnel expo-
sures, typically over-evaluating Search and discarding the contribution of Display.
See our previous Havas Digital Insight Searching for Real Attribution for more information:
http://www.mediacontacts.com/2008/09/searching-for-real-attribution/




© 2011 Havas Digital                                                                               7
Havas Digital
                                                                         Social Media Attribution
                                                                         Beyond User Engagement




Building on Attribution
for Display, Search and Video
In a previous Havas Digital Insights paper, “Artemis Attribution Weighting, Managing
                                                                                             3
the Digital Media Mix” ( 2 ) , we have looked at why and how Artemis Attribution Weight-
ing, Havas Digital’s evidence based, data-led algorithmic attribution methodology, can
help Marketers understand media spend efficiency across Digital touch points includ-
ing Display, Search and Video.

                                              artemis
                                              insight
      last click attribution                                    artemis attribution weighting
 % of conversions attributed to Display                         % of conversions attributed to Display

                                                            Display
                                                               10%
                                 Search                                                          Search
                                 Last click                                                      Last click
                                 100%                                                            56%
                                                             Search
                                                        Assist clicks
                                                                34%




No conversions are attributed to Display                     10% of conversions are attributed to Display



Havas Digital believes attribution models need to be based on an un-
derstanding of how user segments react to an advertisement, not just
an understanding of the aggregate (or averaged) effects. We aim to
answer two questions: “How are the decision paths different for
converting users versus non-converting users?” and “How has
each touch point in the campaign influenced the conversion rates
of different segments?”




                                                                                     WHY CHOOSE
                                                                                     ONE MODEL
                                                                                    OVER ANOTHER?




© 2011 Havas Digital                                                                                     8
Havas Digital
                                                              Social Media Attribution
                                                              Beyond User Engagement




In this Havas Digital Insight we will look at how we can extend
Artemis Attribution Weighting to encompass Social Media.
Our aim is to help marketers understand the contribution
of Social Media to their overall strategy in order to maximize
Social Media channels’ contribution to their overall marketing
efforts across Digital, Social and Offline media.
This will derive actionable insights to optimize campaign architecture and maximize
the effect of channel synergy. To achieve this, we are building on the foundation laid in
our previous efforts towards constructing an evidence-based attribution methodology
that does not rely on randomly chosen models, but rather assesses the role of each and
every touch point in the consumer Digital exposure path. This answers the question...




© 2011 Havas Digital                                                                   9
Havas Digital
                                                             Social Media Attribution
                                                             Beyond User Engagement




How do we address Social
Media Attribution challenges?                                                   4
We use sophisticated methodologies to construct a unified dataset between Display,
Search or Video data and Social data. By tying back the disparate data sources into uni-
fied framework, we can uncover attribution and interaction effects between paid Digital
media campaigns and earned Social Media. To that aim, we use Social and Display,
Search and Video data to create representations of consumer journeys – sequences of
Social events (like blog posts, Twitter messages, or forum comments) and Digital media
events (Search impressions and clicks, Display impressions and clicks, etc.) as in the
figure below.

                                                                     Display, Search,
                                                                     Video data and
                                                                      Social data in
                                                                      separate silos



                                                                       SEARCH (S)
DISPLAY, VIDEO,                                                        DISPLAY (D)
 SEARCH DATA
                                                                       CLICK DISPLAY (C)

                                                                       PRICE COMPARISON (P)

                                                                       CONVERSION (N)

                                                                       SOCIAL DATA


 SOCIAL DATA
                                                                         Unified user
                                                                       journey merging
                                                                    data sets and creating
                                                                    a simulated individual




 UNIFIED DATA




The methodology we use to tie together the Social and the Digital datasets is a com-
puter simulation technique called Agent Based Modeling (ABM). We create unified,
simulated user journeys that represent the online behavior of real world people and
their social interactions. We also cluster the user journeys based on the frequency of
exposures and conversions in order to understand the differences in possible out-
comes for different consumer profiles. The analysis process is based on this clustering
methodology.




© 2011 Havas Digital                                                                       10
Havas Digital
                                                                      Social Media Attribution
                                                                      Beyond User Engagement




                                                                                          GEEK’S
                                                                                          CORNER

What is Agent Based Modeling?
Agent Based Modeling (ABM) aggregates disparate data to create “agents” (simulated people) that
are representative of the real world population. ABMs are used to uncover the causes of complex
and often surprising outcomes in systems as diverse as molecules, the Internet, traffic jams and now:
online consumer journeys.
Because Agent Based Models are designed to understand individuals, they are suited to help mar-
keters understand how different user segments behave as a function of marketing campaign expo-
sure. For more on ABMs see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agent-based_model



Here is an example of what a Social Network looks like for 2 different clusters of users.
The right cluster is clearly the denser of the two; this means that information will propa-
gate a lot faster in this cluster and for example, influence how awareness of a product
offering is increased among users.



     Social Network with lower density                  Social Network with higher density




                       Analysis                           Analysis
        Awareness of product or                             Awareness of product or
        promotion propagates slower                         promotion propagates quicker




      Recommendation:                                    Recommendation:
      This customer segment is better                    This customer segment is better
      activated with media that gener-                   activated with media that gener-
      ates high awareness.                               ates word of mouth.




© 2011 Havas Digital                                                                              11
Havas Digital
                                                                     Social Media Attribution
                                                                     Beyond User Engagement




                                                                                        GEEK’S
                                                                                        CORNER

Where does the data presented in the case studies come from?
All of the data presented in this Insight document relates to an ecommerce advertiser that uses Ad
serving through Display, Search, Video, Price Comparison and Email. Social buzz data is gathered
through several buzz monitoring tools and includes Twitter data as well as comments publicly avail-
able on forums and discussion boards.




Social Network behaviors also inform campaign phasing, as is shown on the graph be-
low that illustrates how awareness of a promotion spreads around the network over time
(the colored lines represent posts about the promotion). For this ecommerce client,
promotions have a short life span and build upon each other. Understanding how each
promotion resonates with different user segments helps this marketer plan product pro-
motions life span.



                     1:00 PM                          1:10 PM                         1:25 PM




             A promotion gaining awareness over time
          in a customer segment. Speed of propagation
               informs the lifespan of the promotion.


What does this tell us?
• All consumers are not born equal.
• All consumer Social Networks are not born equal.
• Taking differences between consumers into account when designing
  marketing programs leads to better effectiveness and efficiency.




© 2011 Havas Digital                                                                            12
Havas Digital
                                                               Social Media Attribution
                                                               Beyond User Engagement




What are the benefits of Artemis’
Social Media Attribution?                                                           5
To integrate Social Media into their strategy in an accountable fashion, marketers need
to understand how to maximize Social Media’s contribution to brand and product’s
performance for short/medium/long term marketing programs across all Digital and
Offline channels. For this, Havas Digital is developing ways to define Paid-Owned-
Earned platforms that insure optimal efficiency and effective combinations, resulting
in better brand/product outcomes. Benefits of Artemis’ Social Media Attribution, from
this perspective, can be framed around three axes: 1) Operational insights on market-
ing channels; 2) Operational analysis of consumer segments and 3) Optimization of
marketing strategies and implementation scenarios.


1. Operational insights on marketing channels
Measure and quantify the direct contribution of Social Media activity on marketing perform-
ance indicators (consumer engagement, conversions, sales, etc) through a comprehensive
picture of visitor behavior (on site activity, engagement depth, purchase, value, etc).
In particular, it enables analysis of the interactions between Search and Social Media in
the purchase pathway and shows how these interactions support navigation through the
decision-making process.



   Analysis: For this high-value                      SOCIAL EVENTS
   consumer cluster, Search, Social
   and Display are the channels with
   highest interaction.
                                                                               PRICE
                                                                               COMPARISON

                 SEARCH




                                                                                 EMAIL
                                       DISPLAY

                                                                   The Node size represents
                                                                   a channel’s Attribution.
   recommendation: Using                                           The Edge weight shows
   Display on Search retargeting
   and closely tying Social Media                                  the cross-channel synergy.
   messaging to Paid Search will
   enhance performance for this                     HIGH-VALUE
   consumer group.                                  CONVERSIONS




© 2011 Havas Digital                                                                            13
Havas Digital
                                                                      Social Media Attribution
                                                                      Beyond User Engagement




                                                                                         GEEK’S
                                                                                         CORNER

How is the cluster graph built?
The consumer journeys in the terabytes of data we analyze are diverse. Some journeys last
months. Others just minutes. Some, based on the media consumption and internet use of the
consumer, have hundreds of events. Others just a handful. Some journeys are uniform, populated
mostly with identical events, while others are highly varied. Yet besides the apparent differences,
clear patterns in the frequency and sequence of events emerge.
Each consumer journey can be represented as a graph, in which each node is a channel, and each
link represents how well two channels interact with each other in terms of their ability to increase
the likelihood of purchase. The more effective a channel, the larger its representing circle. The
greater the interaction between the channels, the thicker the line between them is.
This allows us to cluster journeys based on these similarities and build consumer segments that
categorize hundreds of millions of journeys. Each segment has different conversion rates, rev-
enues and attribution scores. From there, we derive insights about profitability and media effec-
tiveness that include both Paid and Earned Digital media.




Quantify Social Media influence on other marketing
channels such as Display, Video, Natural Search, etc.
The main impact point is generally Social-Search interaction. Artemis’ ability to provide
the most granular data enables us to understand impact at keyword level for Paid Search
and Natural Search activity – separating navigational search from informational search.


Quantify synergy effects between channels
Understanding how Digital actions are boosted by different levels on Social Networking
activity helps marketers understand the value of community management in general,
and Fans, Likes and Followers in particular. Recent events suggest strong correlations
between media vehicles such as TV and Twitter for example, as has been shown during
the Royal Wedding (see this post on Twitter’s blog for more insights on Twitter and TV:
http://blog.twitter.com/2011/05/watching-together-twitter-and-tv.html).


Understand channel intervention
                     ’s
at each stage of the path to purchase
As the purchase funnel is fragmenting and discovery choices are multiplying, consumers
have increasing ways to make purchase decisions. Understanding how Digital, Offline
and Social channels work at different stages of the consumer decision process helps
marketers conceive campaign architectures that maximize interaction and synergies ef-
fect, including resonance of their message in the Social sphere.




© 2011 Havas Digital                                                                             14
Havas Digital
                                                                 Social Media Attribution
                                                                 Beyond User Engagement




Understand channel’s intervention at each stage of the path to purchase.
Example of a purchase path:


                                                    decision points



                                  Thinking
                                   it over



                                                                            purchase

                Social and Search events appear in both stages


                Social and Search interaction
                is important for this customer


2. Operational analysis of consumer segments
Understanding how different media combinations influence different consumer segments
is really at the heart of our approach. With the data and the tools available to take the
challenge on, we are able to help marketers look deeper into their campaign insights and
understand how consumers resonate with their messaging and the vehicles they use.
In the following example, we show how consumer segments ranked by value cluster ac-
cording to the channel they used most in their purchase process.


                   Cluster	       Value	         Dominant Channel
                   cluster 4	        1	          Search
                   cluster 5	        2	          Price Comparison
                   cluster 3	        3	          Social
                   cluster 6	        4	          Search
                   cluster 2	        5	Display
                   cluster 1	        6	          Search
                   cluster 7	        7	          Social
                   cluster 8	        9	Email
                   cluster 10	       9	          Social
                   cluster 9	        10	         Social




© 2011 Havas Digital                                                                   15
100%          Havas Digital
                                                                                                            Social Media Attribution
                                                                                                            Beyond User Engagement
90%



80%

      Cluster of consumer identifies dominant response channels:
70%100%


       90%
60%
       80%


50%
       70%



       60%
40%

       50%

30%
       40%



20% 30%

       20%

10%
       10%



 0%    0%
              cluster 1   cluster 2   cluster 3        cluster 4    cluster 5    cluster 6      cluster 7     cluster 8     cluster 9   cluster 10
             cluster 1       cluster 2            cluster 3              cluster 4           cluster 5         cluster 6            cluster 7        cluster 8   clus
                                              SOCIAL       SEARCH    PRICE COMPARISON    EMAIL     DISPLAY

                                                               SOCIAL        SEARCH          PRICE COMPARISON               EMAIL       DISPLAY




      This enables us to derive an aggregated, attributed value to each media channel by roll-
      ing up all customer segments and looking at the effects at the channel level. Search and
      Display have a dominant role in the purchase process for this marketer, but Social now
      appears with 9% of credit for the total sales volume of the time period we analyzed. We
      can now credit Social Media for its role in the overall marketing efforts in driving sales.




      Attribution by channel:                                       9%
                                                                    9%                  21%
                                                                                        21%
                                                   13%
                                                  13%                                                                     DISPLAY
                                                                                                                      DISPLAY
                                                                                                                       DISPLAY_CLICK
                                                  7%                                                                  DISPLAY_CLICK
                                                                                                                       SEARCH
                                              7%                                                                      SEARCH
                                                                                                  18%                  EMAIL
                                                                                                 18%                  EMAIL COMPARISON
                                                                                                                       PRICE
                                                                                                                      PRICE COMPARISON
                                                                                                                       SOCIAL
                                                                    32%                                               SOCIAL
                                                                   32%




      © 2011 Havas Digital                                                                                                                      16
Havas Digital
                                                             Social Media Attribution
                                                             Beyond User Engagement




3. Optimization of marketing strategies
and implementation scenarios
The Artemis Social Media Attribution platform enables a new, multi-dimensional focus
for marketing spend optimization.
 • Touchpoints dimension: integration of Paid, Owned and Earned media as
   all touchpoints, Social and the marketers website are taken into account.
 • Path to purchase dimension: touchpoints are considered as they occur in time.
 • Consumer segment and value: differences between consumers
   are taken into account in the media mix optimization process.

By using the data at hand to build a framework of insights into the existing marketing
program, we enable marketers to experiment with “what if” scenarios by testing the ef-
fects of actionable parameters like media spend, allocation and timing to understand
how changes in the media mix affect user behavior.
The questions we seek to answer are: “What architecture of Paid media will activate mul-
tiplying effects of exchanges between consumers/prospects/influencers?” and “How
can we influence this by taking engagement metrics into consideration?”.
This approach is geared at day to day operational optimization with a continuous “test
and learn” focus to enrich tactical execution with relevant insights.



                                                                             In a nut
                                                                               shell

Benefits of our approach:

1. Analyze Social and Digital media holistically by tying disparate data sourc-
   es into a common framework.

2. Understand the different profitability and outcomes that are likely for dif-
   ferent online consumer segments by exploiting the heterogeneity of con-
   sumer journeys with our clustering analysis.

3. Attribute all events that occur in a consumer journey, not only the last
   handful of clicks.

4. Experiment and evaluate new strategies quickly in a risk-free environment
   by using a validated simulation.




© 2011 Havas Digital                                                                    17
Havas Digital
                                                                 Social Media Attribution
                                                                 Beyond User Engagement




Conclusion                                                                         6
In the light of the ever growing complexity of the Digital media landscape, few marketers
still believe that there is one perfect answer to their spend allocation challenges. Moreover,
were there to be such an answer, it would have a rather short life span until it is disrupted
by a large scale shift in consumer behavior, fostered by the Digital media revolution.

Havas Digital has taken the standpoint of continuous devel-
opment of tools and methodologies that help marketers
manage and optimize their marketing efforts in accordance
with the level of complexity of each market and consumer
segment. We do not believe in one size fits all, neither in
marketing strategy nor in relationship management.
As we continue developing our toolset, we will publish more results in further Insights
documents. In the meantime, we would be delighted to discuss individual business issues
and opportunities, whether you are already a Havas Digital client or simply just interested
in a more case-specific perspective. Please contact your Havas Digital Account Director,
the appropriate Havas Digital Country Managing Director or any authors to find out how
many of the emerging opportunities in Digital marketing can play a key role in your overall
marketing plans.




© 2011 Havas Digital                                                                       18
Havas Digital
                                                             Social Media Attribution
                                                             Beyond User Engagement




Resources
Resources
                                                                              7
Media Contacts – www.mediacontacts.com
Adwords – adwords.blogspot.com
Shumans, Business, Media & Technology – shumans.com
John Batelle’s Search Blog – battellemedia.com
Pay Per Click Blog – www.ppcblog.co.uk
Search Engine Watch – searchenginewatch.com
Enquisite – www.enquisite.com/blog/
Wikipedia – www.wikipedia.com
Forrester Research – www.forrester.com
Gartner Research – www.gartner.com


Sources

(1) Morpace through eMarketer:
    Facebook’s impact on Retailers (April 2010)

(2) Havas Digital:
    Artemis Attribution Weighting, Managing the Digital Media Mix (March 2010)
   http://www.havasdigital.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/HD_Insight_AttributionDM.pdf




© 2011 Havas Digital                                                                 19
Havas Digital
                                                             Social Media Attribution
                                                             Beyond User Engagement




CONTACT DETAILS                                                                  8
We encourage you to contact us directly to discuss, in more details, any concerns you
may have regarding this Havas Digital Insight issue. We will be happy to assist you.
    · katrin.ribant@havasdigital.com		
    · dejan@concentricroi.com
    · arnaud.parent@fr.havasmedia.com


Or contact your Havas Digital LOCAL OFFICE:


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© 2011 Havas Digital                                                                     20
Havas Digital
                                                                 Social Media Attribution
                                                                 Beyond User Engagement




HAVAS DIGITAL CHINA                               HAVAS DIGITAL FRANCE
address 1 Room 8011-8012, 8/F,                    address 11 Square Leon Blum,
Novel Building No. 887, Huaihai Zhong Road.       Puteaux Cedex, F92806 France. 	
Shanghai, China, 200020.                          Office phone +33 1 46 93 33 33
Office phone +86 21 6467 6368                     fax +33 1 46 93 35 37
fax +86 21 6467 6369                              country manager Pascal Dasseux
                                                  email pascal.dasseux@havasdigital.com
address 2 Room 2001, 20/F, Tower B,
Global Trade Center No.36, Dong San
Huan Road, Dongcheng District.                    HAVAS DIGITAL GERMANY
Beijing, China, 100013.                           address Hedderichstrasse 49.
Office phone +86 10 59232702                      60594 Frankfurt, Germany.	
fax +86 10 5825 6173                              Office phone +49 69 603 292 404
country manager Leon Lu                           fax +49 69 603 292 470
email leon.lu@cn.mediacontacts.com                country manager Joerg Manthey
                                                  email joerg.manthey@de.mediacontacts.com

HAVAS DIGITAL COLOMBIA
                                                  HAVAS DIGITAL HONG KONG
address Carrera 7, No. 71-21, Torre A,
Piso 12. Edificio Avenida Chile.                  address 32 Floor, Chinachem Building.
Bogotá, D.C. Colombia.	                           Exchange Square, 338 Kings Rd, Northpoint.
Office phone +57 1 317 3010                       Hong Kong, China.	
fax +57 1 317 3010                                Office phone +852 2590 1814
country manager Sandra Quintero                   fax +852 2516 5411
email sandra.quintero@havasdigital.com            country manager Jason Kwong
                                                  email jason.kwong@hk.mediacontacts.com

HAVAS DIGITAL DENMARK
                                                  HAVAS DIGITAL HUNGARY
address Jagtvej 169B, DK 2100.
Copenhagen O Denmark.	                            address 1117 Budapest, Alíz u.1
Office phone +45 7733 4300                        (hrsz.3990/5) Office Garden Building
fax +45 7733 4433                                 5th Floor (Szerémi; u-Hengermalom
country manager Soren Bronee                      u.corner) Hungary.	
email soren.bronee@mediacontacts.com              Office phone +36 1 799 1820
                                                  fax +36 1 799 1821
                                                  country manager Ágnes Kovács
HAVAS DIGITAL ESTONIA
                                                  email agnes.kovacs@havasdigital.com
address Maakri 19/21. 10145, Tallinn. Estonia.
Office phone +372 669 1000
fax +372 669 1001
country manager Kaarel Oja
email kareel.oja@ee.mediacontacts.com


HAVAS DIGITAL FINLAND
address Antinkatu 1. 00100, Helsinki. Finland.	
Office phone +358 4 0746 1441
country manager Ismo Tenkanen
email ismo.tenkanen@mediacontacts.com




© 2011 Havas Digital                                                                           21
Havas Digital
                                                                       Social Media Attribution
                                                                       Beyond User Engagement




HAVAS DIGITAL INDIA                                   HAVAS DIGITAL malaysia
address 1 30, Hauz Khas Village, 3rd Floor.           address 3A-22 & 3A-22A, Janlan Pju 8/3.
New Delhi - 110016 India.                             Perdana Business Centre, Damansara Perdana.
Office phone +91 11 398 444 00/11                     47820 Petaling Jaya, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malay-
fax +91 222 491 5766                                  sia.
                                                      Office phone +603 7628 6658
address 2 Brady Glady’s Plaza, Unit 1,
                                                      fax +603 7628 6777
2nd Floor. Senapati Bapat Marg,
                                                      country manager Dinesh Sandhu
Lower Parel, Mumbai - 400 013 India.
                                                      email dinesh.sandhu@mediacontacts.com
Office phone +91 22 300 364 00/33

address 3 6-3-899/I, Second Floor, R.V.’s Kamala
                                                      HAVAS DIGITAL mexico
Castle. Somajiguda, Hyderabad - 500 082 India.
Office phone +91 40 664 178 80 / 81                   address Prolongación Paseo de la Reforma
                                                      1015, Torre A, Piso 24. Col. Desarrollo Santa Fé.
address 4 5th Floor, Tower A, Building 9              01376 México DF.
Dlf Cyber City, Phase III. Gurgaon -122 002, India.   Office phone +52 55 9177 6081
country manager Rajeev Balasubrahmanyam               fax +52 55 9177 6005
email rajeev.bala@sg.mediacontacts.com                country manager Arnaldo Hernández
                                                      email arnaldo.hernandez@havasdigital.com

HAVAS DIGITAL italy
                                                      HAVAS DIGITAL NETHERLANDS
address Via San Vito, 7. 20123 Milano, Italy.	
Office phone +39 02 6744 3201                         address Burg. A. Colijnweg 2.
fax +39 02 6744 3222                                  1182 AL Amstelveen, Netherlands.
country manager Cosimo Ferrara                        Office phone +31 20 54 50 580
email cosimo.ferrara@havasdigital.com                 fax +31 20 54 50 581
                                                      country manager Freek de Steenwinkel
                                                      email freek.de.steenwinkel@nl.mediacontacts.com
HAVAS DIGITAL latvia
address Kr. Barona Street 36-9.
                                                      HAVAS DIGITAL peru
LV 1011 Riga, Latvia.	
Office phone +371 2961 5655                           address Av. Victor Andrés Belaunde 147,
fax +371 6728 5666                                    Torre Real Uno, Oficina 902.
country manager Jevgenijs Kazanins                    Centro Empresarial San Isidro, Lima - Perú.
email jevgenijs.kazanins@mediacontacts.lv             Office phone +511 611 8800
                                                      fax +511 611 8803
                                                      country manager Gonzalo Parra
HAVAS DIGITAL LITHUANIA
                                                      email gonzalo.parra@havasdigital.com
address Savanoriu Ave 1.
03116 Vilnius, Lithuania.
                                                      HAVAS DIGITAL PHILIPPINES
Office phone +370 5 213 23 54
fax +370 5 213 11 25                                  address Yehey.com 38/F Discovery Center.
country manager Vytautas Kubilius                     25 ADB Avenue Ortigas Complex, Pasig City,
email vytautas.kubilius@lt.mediacontacts.com          Philippines.	
                                                      Office phone +632 689 8012
                                                      fax +632 910 6420
                                                      country manager Eduardo Mapa
                                                      email eduardo.mapa@ph.mediacontacts.com




© 2011 Havas Digital                                                                                 22
Havas Digital
                                                             Social Media Attribution
                                                             Beyond User Engagement




HAVAS DIGITAL Poland                         HAVAS DIGITAL thailand
address Marynarska 15 str,                   address Jasmine City Building, 19th Fl.,
02-674 Warszaw, Poland.                      2 Sukhumvit 23, Klongtoey Nua, Wattana, Bang-
Office phone +48 22 843 66 60                kok 10110, Thailand.
fax +48 22 843 66 61                         Office phone +66 2 259 9030
country manager Robert Bernaciak             fax +66 2 259 9499
email robert.bernaciak@mediacontacts.com     country manager Rajeev Balasubrahmanyam
                                             email rajeev.bala@sg.mediacontacts.com
HAVAS DIGITAL Portugal
                                             HAVAS DIGITAL uae
address Avenida Duque de Ávila, 46 - 5ºAv.
1050-083 Lisboa, Portugal.                   address Dubai Media City, CNN Building.
Office phone +351 21 791 3388                Number 2, Office 511, 5th floor.
fax + 351 21 791 3340                        PO Box 21448 Dubai, UAE.
country manager José Frade                   Office phone +971 4366 4100
email jose.frade@havasdigital.com            fax +971 4391 8001
                                             country manager Joe Hanoun
HAVAS DIGITAL singapore                      email joe.hanoun@mediacontacts.com

address 137 Amoy Street, #02-02
                                             HAVAS DIGITAL uk
Far East Square, Singapore 0499065
Office phone +65 6645 4700                   address 11 Great Newport Street,
fax +65 6645 4701                            WC2H 7JA London, UK.	
country manager                              Office phone +44 (0) 20 7393 9000
Rajeev Balasubrahmanyam                      fax +44 (0) 20 7393 2525
email rajeev.bala@sg.mediacontacts.com       country manager Paul Frampton
                                             email paul.frampton@uk.mediacontacts.com
HAVAS DIGITAL spain
                                             HAVAS DIGITAL USA
address 1 Avda. General Perón, 38, 14ª.
28020 Madrid, Spain.                         address 1 101 Huntington Avenue,
Office phone +34 91 456 90 50                16th Fl. Boston MA 02199 USA.
fax +34 91 770 15 86                         Office phone +1 617 425 4100
                                             fax +1 617 425 4101
address 2 Dr. Fleming, 17.
08017 Barcelona, Spain.                      address 2 195 Broadway, 12th. New York, NY 10007.
Office phone +34 93 205 87 71                Office phone +1 646 587 5000
fax +34 93 414 72 13                         fax +1 646 587 5005

                                             address 3 36 East Grand, 5th Floor. Chicago, IL 60611.
address 4 C/ Roger de Lauria, 19-4c.
                                             Office phone +1 312 337 4400
46002 Valencia, Spain.
                                             fax +1 312 337 3898
Office phone +34 96 353 08 74
fax +34 96 351 15 69                         address 4 5301 Blue Lagoon Drive,
                                             Suite 850, Miami, FL 33126.
country manager Javier Navarro
                                             Office phone +1 305 377 1907
email javier.navarro@havasdigital.com
                                             fax +1 305 377 1906
                                             Managing Director Fernando Monedero
                                             email fernando.monedero@havasdigital.com

                                             country manager Andrew Altersohn
                                             email andrew.altersohn@havasdigital.com



© 2011 Havas Digital                                                                      23
www.havasdigital.com

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Quantifying Social Media's Contribution Beyond User Engagement

  • 1. SOCIAL MEDIA ATTRIBUTION Beyond User Engagement July 2011 Quantifying the contribution of Social Media in your campaign architecture
  • 2. Havas Digital Social Media Attribution Beyond User Engagement Lead Contributors Katrin Ribant EVP, Data Platforms Havas Digital Global katrin.ribant@havasdigital.com Dejan Duzevik Chief Technology Officer Concentric dejan@concentricroi.com Arnaud Parent Director, Research & Development, PhD Havas Media arnaud.parent@fr.havasmedia.com © 2011 Havas Digital 2
  • 3. Havas Digital Social Media Attribution Beyond User Engagement CONTENTS 1. Executive summary.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 2. What are the challenges with Social Media Attribution?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 . 3. Building on Attribution for Display, Search and Video.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 4. How do we address Social Media Attribution challenges?.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 5. What are the benefits of Artemis’ Social Media Attribution?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 . 6. Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 . 7. Resources.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 8. Contact details. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 © 2011 Havas Digital 3
  • 4. Havas Digital Social Media Attribution Beyond User Engagement Executive Summary 1 As use of Social Media continues to grow globally, Social Media spend is on a growing path. Marketers stock up on Fans and Followers and are looking for ways to monetize their Social Media success and gain an understanding of how these new engagement channels work with their overall media spend. Taking Social Media beyond the “Likes” into understanding its true value means marketers need the tools to quantify the contribution of each piece of their media mix. With 68% of Facebook users saying that they follow friends’ advice when it comes to dis- covering and buying new brands/products (1) , managing word of mouth is a necessity that goes beyond reputation management. For ecommerce marketers, Social Media market- ing is not just an option any more, it becomes a mandate. This Insights piece outlines Havas Digital’s methodology for attribution across Display, Search, Video and Social Media, showing real-world examples of applications to the ecommerce world as well as laying out the framework in which the analysis is being carried out. © 2011 Havas Digital 4
  • 5. Social Media’s growing importance in the marketing mix Word of Mouth combined with Search are the most powerful drivers of consumer behavior Have some degree of trust* in the following forms US online buyers who were led to of advertising (Apr. 2009) their purchase by a search engine or Social Media site (Nov. 2010) Recommendations from people known 90% % of total Consumer opinions posted online 70% Brand websites 70% Editorial content (e.g. newspaper article) 69% Brand sponsorships 64% TV 62% Newspaper 61% Magazines 59% Billboards/outdoor advertising 55% Radio 55% Emails signed up for 54% Search Ads before movies 52% 51% Social Search engine results ads 41% Online video ads 37% 1% Search&Social Online banner ads 33% 48% Textads on mobile phones 24% Source: The Nielsen Company Source: comScore Inc., 2011 * E.g. 90 percent of respondents trusted “completely” or “somewhat” recommendations from people they know. Social Networking is where people spend most of their online time US consumers who spend 1+ hour on Social Network Time spent on online activities, by type activities per week, Q2 2008 - Q3 2010 (Sep. 2010) Hours per week spent on activity % of respondents 66% 64% 65% 65% 61% 59% 54% 46% 38% 39% Email Social Interest Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 4.4 4.6 3.9 2008 2009 2010 Source: Interpret, December 16, 2010 Note: n=48,804 Source: TNS, “Digital Life”. October 10, 2010
  • 6. MANAGING WORD OF MOUTH IS CRITICAL Fortune 500 companies with a Twitter account*, US Facebook users who are more likely 2009 and 2010 to buy a product or visit a retailer based on a positive Facebook friend % of total referral (Mar. 2010) % of respondents 35% 60% 2009 2010 Note: *with tweets made in the past 30 days. YES 68% NO 32% Source: University of Massachusetts Dartmouth Center of Marketing Research, “The Fortune 500 and Social Media: A Source: Morpace, “Facebook’s Impact on Longitudinal Study of Blogging, Twitter and Facebook Usage by Retailers”, provided to eMarketer. April 1, 2010 America’s Largest Companies”. October 6, 2010 “Social network advertising is real and growing. International markets will grow even more than US markets” eMarketer Social network ad revenues worldwide, 2009 - 2012 Facebook ad revenues, 2009 - 2012 Billions and % change Billions Worldwide $0.74 $1.86 $4.05 $5.74 $8.09 (35.6%) Non US $0.18 $0.65 $1.86 $2.87 US $0.56 $1.21 $2.19 $2.87 $5.97 (71.6%) $3.48 (47.6%) $2.36 (20.3%) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012 % change US Non US Worldwide (2012 vs. 2009) 417% 1,468% 678% Source: eMarketer. January 2011 Note: numbers may not add up to total due to rounding. Source: eMarketer, January 2011 How can marketers achieve accountability for their social advertising spend?
  • 7. Havas Digital Social Media Attribution Beyond User Engagement What are the challenges with Social Media attribution? Digital attribution methodologies that rely on user-based data are great at helping mar- 2 keters understand which combinations of channels work best for their most valuable cus- tomers. A de facto standard of current approaches is the “last click” attribution model, which ignores most of the wealth of user-level data and touch points in the consumer decision path. Large portions of Social Media spend escape traditional tracking techniques, whether marketers use Web Analytics tools or Ad servers to measure their marketing ROI. Social comments, also referred to as “buzz,” are the most obvious example of Social Media activity that cannot be tracked through Web Analytics or Ad serving technology. Tools that allow measurement of Social comments provide information about users and/or their Social and intent graphs as well as volumes of comments and sentiment analysis. However, this information lives in a different silo than impressions, clicks or website activ- ity from Display or Search campaigns. Traditional marketing mix modeling methodologies, in turn, have difficulties accounting for differences between individuals and are not well suited to help marketers with Digital and Social Media attribution. Havas Digital has pioneered Digital attribution beyond last click and is now building upon this foundation to devise a truly accountable frame- work for Social Media attribution. GEEK’S CORNER What is Last Click attribution? The default rule in online attribution is that the last exposure before conversion gets the full credit, with clicks taking priority over impressions. In other words, no matter how many different creatives a consumer has previously been exposed to, the last click before purchase is attributed 100% of the revenue generated. If there was no click in the journey, the last impression gets credit for the conversion. IMPRESSION CLICK IMPRESSION SALES 100% Attribution The Last Click attribution has been thoroughly criticized for not giving credit to early funnel expo- sures, typically over-evaluating Search and discarding the contribution of Display. See our previous Havas Digital Insight Searching for Real Attribution for more information: http://www.mediacontacts.com/2008/09/searching-for-real-attribution/ © 2011 Havas Digital 7
  • 8. Havas Digital Social Media Attribution Beyond User Engagement Building on Attribution for Display, Search and Video In a previous Havas Digital Insights paper, “Artemis Attribution Weighting, Managing 3 the Digital Media Mix” ( 2 ) , we have looked at why and how Artemis Attribution Weight- ing, Havas Digital’s evidence based, data-led algorithmic attribution methodology, can help Marketers understand media spend efficiency across Digital touch points includ- ing Display, Search and Video. artemis insight last click attribution artemis attribution weighting % of conversions attributed to Display % of conversions attributed to Display Display 10% Search Search Last click Last click 100% 56% Search Assist clicks 34% No conversions are attributed to Display 10% of conversions are attributed to Display Havas Digital believes attribution models need to be based on an un- derstanding of how user segments react to an advertisement, not just an understanding of the aggregate (or averaged) effects. We aim to answer two questions: “How are the decision paths different for converting users versus non-converting users?” and “How has each touch point in the campaign influenced the conversion rates of different segments?” WHY CHOOSE ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER? © 2011 Havas Digital 8
  • 9. Havas Digital Social Media Attribution Beyond User Engagement In this Havas Digital Insight we will look at how we can extend Artemis Attribution Weighting to encompass Social Media. Our aim is to help marketers understand the contribution of Social Media to their overall strategy in order to maximize Social Media channels’ contribution to their overall marketing efforts across Digital, Social and Offline media. This will derive actionable insights to optimize campaign architecture and maximize the effect of channel synergy. To achieve this, we are building on the foundation laid in our previous efforts towards constructing an evidence-based attribution methodology that does not rely on randomly chosen models, but rather assesses the role of each and every touch point in the consumer Digital exposure path. This answers the question... © 2011 Havas Digital 9
  • 10. Havas Digital Social Media Attribution Beyond User Engagement How do we address Social Media Attribution challenges? 4 We use sophisticated methodologies to construct a unified dataset between Display, Search or Video data and Social data. By tying back the disparate data sources into uni- fied framework, we can uncover attribution and interaction effects between paid Digital media campaigns and earned Social Media. To that aim, we use Social and Display, Search and Video data to create representations of consumer journeys – sequences of Social events (like blog posts, Twitter messages, or forum comments) and Digital media events (Search impressions and clicks, Display impressions and clicks, etc.) as in the figure below. Display, Search, Video data and Social data in separate silos SEARCH (S) DISPLAY, VIDEO, DISPLAY (D) SEARCH DATA CLICK DISPLAY (C) PRICE COMPARISON (P) CONVERSION (N) SOCIAL DATA SOCIAL DATA Unified user journey merging data sets and creating a simulated individual UNIFIED DATA The methodology we use to tie together the Social and the Digital datasets is a com- puter simulation technique called Agent Based Modeling (ABM). We create unified, simulated user journeys that represent the online behavior of real world people and their social interactions. We also cluster the user journeys based on the frequency of exposures and conversions in order to understand the differences in possible out- comes for different consumer profiles. The analysis process is based on this clustering methodology. © 2011 Havas Digital 10
  • 11. Havas Digital Social Media Attribution Beyond User Engagement GEEK’S CORNER What is Agent Based Modeling? Agent Based Modeling (ABM) aggregates disparate data to create “agents” (simulated people) that are representative of the real world population. ABMs are used to uncover the causes of complex and often surprising outcomes in systems as diverse as molecules, the Internet, traffic jams and now: online consumer journeys. Because Agent Based Models are designed to understand individuals, they are suited to help mar- keters understand how different user segments behave as a function of marketing campaign expo- sure. For more on ABMs see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agent-based_model Here is an example of what a Social Network looks like for 2 different clusters of users. The right cluster is clearly the denser of the two; this means that information will propa- gate a lot faster in this cluster and for example, influence how awareness of a product offering is increased among users. Social Network with lower density Social Network with higher density Analysis Analysis Awareness of product or Awareness of product or promotion propagates slower promotion propagates quicker Recommendation: Recommendation: This customer segment is better This customer segment is better activated with media that gener- activated with media that gener- ates high awareness. ates word of mouth. © 2011 Havas Digital 11
  • 12. Havas Digital Social Media Attribution Beyond User Engagement GEEK’S CORNER Where does the data presented in the case studies come from? All of the data presented in this Insight document relates to an ecommerce advertiser that uses Ad serving through Display, Search, Video, Price Comparison and Email. Social buzz data is gathered through several buzz monitoring tools and includes Twitter data as well as comments publicly avail- able on forums and discussion boards. Social Network behaviors also inform campaign phasing, as is shown on the graph be- low that illustrates how awareness of a promotion spreads around the network over time (the colored lines represent posts about the promotion). For this ecommerce client, promotions have a short life span and build upon each other. Understanding how each promotion resonates with different user segments helps this marketer plan product pro- motions life span. 1:00 PM 1:10 PM 1:25 PM A promotion gaining awareness over time in a customer segment. Speed of propagation informs the lifespan of the promotion. What does this tell us? • All consumers are not born equal. • All consumer Social Networks are not born equal. • Taking differences between consumers into account when designing marketing programs leads to better effectiveness and efficiency. © 2011 Havas Digital 12
  • 13. Havas Digital Social Media Attribution Beyond User Engagement What are the benefits of Artemis’ Social Media Attribution? 5 To integrate Social Media into their strategy in an accountable fashion, marketers need to understand how to maximize Social Media’s contribution to brand and product’s performance for short/medium/long term marketing programs across all Digital and Offline channels. For this, Havas Digital is developing ways to define Paid-Owned- Earned platforms that insure optimal efficiency and effective combinations, resulting in better brand/product outcomes. Benefits of Artemis’ Social Media Attribution, from this perspective, can be framed around three axes: 1) Operational insights on market- ing channels; 2) Operational analysis of consumer segments and 3) Optimization of marketing strategies and implementation scenarios. 1. Operational insights on marketing channels Measure and quantify the direct contribution of Social Media activity on marketing perform- ance indicators (consumer engagement, conversions, sales, etc) through a comprehensive picture of visitor behavior (on site activity, engagement depth, purchase, value, etc). In particular, it enables analysis of the interactions between Search and Social Media in the purchase pathway and shows how these interactions support navigation through the decision-making process. Analysis: For this high-value SOCIAL EVENTS consumer cluster, Search, Social and Display are the channels with highest interaction. PRICE COMPARISON SEARCH EMAIL DISPLAY The Node size represents a channel’s Attribution. recommendation: Using The Edge weight shows Display on Search retargeting and closely tying Social Media the cross-channel synergy. messaging to Paid Search will enhance performance for this HIGH-VALUE consumer group. CONVERSIONS © 2011 Havas Digital 13
  • 14. Havas Digital Social Media Attribution Beyond User Engagement GEEK’S CORNER How is the cluster graph built? The consumer journeys in the terabytes of data we analyze are diverse. Some journeys last months. Others just minutes. Some, based on the media consumption and internet use of the consumer, have hundreds of events. Others just a handful. Some journeys are uniform, populated mostly with identical events, while others are highly varied. Yet besides the apparent differences, clear patterns in the frequency and sequence of events emerge. Each consumer journey can be represented as a graph, in which each node is a channel, and each link represents how well two channels interact with each other in terms of their ability to increase the likelihood of purchase. The more effective a channel, the larger its representing circle. The greater the interaction between the channels, the thicker the line between them is. This allows us to cluster journeys based on these similarities and build consumer segments that categorize hundreds of millions of journeys. Each segment has different conversion rates, rev- enues and attribution scores. From there, we derive insights about profitability and media effec- tiveness that include both Paid and Earned Digital media. Quantify Social Media influence on other marketing channels such as Display, Video, Natural Search, etc. The main impact point is generally Social-Search interaction. Artemis’ ability to provide the most granular data enables us to understand impact at keyword level for Paid Search and Natural Search activity – separating navigational search from informational search. Quantify synergy effects between channels Understanding how Digital actions are boosted by different levels on Social Networking activity helps marketers understand the value of community management in general, and Fans, Likes and Followers in particular. Recent events suggest strong correlations between media vehicles such as TV and Twitter for example, as has been shown during the Royal Wedding (see this post on Twitter’s blog for more insights on Twitter and TV: http://blog.twitter.com/2011/05/watching-together-twitter-and-tv.html). Understand channel intervention ’s at each stage of the path to purchase As the purchase funnel is fragmenting and discovery choices are multiplying, consumers have increasing ways to make purchase decisions. Understanding how Digital, Offline and Social channels work at different stages of the consumer decision process helps marketers conceive campaign architectures that maximize interaction and synergies ef- fect, including resonance of their message in the Social sphere. © 2011 Havas Digital 14
  • 15. Havas Digital Social Media Attribution Beyond User Engagement Understand channel’s intervention at each stage of the path to purchase. Example of a purchase path: decision points Thinking it over purchase Social and Search events appear in both stages Social and Search interaction is important for this customer 2. Operational analysis of consumer segments Understanding how different media combinations influence different consumer segments is really at the heart of our approach. With the data and the tools available to take the challenge on, we are able to help marketers look deeper into their campaign insights and understand how consumers resonate with their messaging and the vehicles they use. In the following example, we show how consumer segments ranked by value cluster ac- cording to the channel they used most in their purchase process. Cluster Value Dominant Channel cluster 4 1 Search cluster 5 2 Price Comparison cluster 3 3 Social cluster 6 4 Search cluster 2 5 Display cluster 1 6 Search cluster 7 7 Social cluster 8 9 Email cluster 10 9 Social cluster 9 10 Social © 2011 Havas Digital 15
  • 16. 100% Havas Digital Social Media Attribution Beyond User Engagement 90% 80% Cluster of consumer identifies dominant response channels: 70%100% 90% 60% 80% 50% 70% 60% 40% 50% 30% 40% 20% 30% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% cluster 1 cluster 2 cluster 3 cluster 4 cluster 5 cluster 6 cluster 7 cluster 8 cluster 9 cluster 10 cluster 1 cluster 2 cluster 3 cluster 4 cluster 5 cluster 6 cluster 7 cluster 8 clus SOCIAL SEARCH PRICE COMPARISON EMAIL DISPLAY SOCIAL SEARCH PRICE COMPARISON EMAIL DISPLAY This enables us to derive an aggregated, attributed value to each media channel by roll- ing up all customer segments and looking at the effects at the channel level. Search and Display have a dominant role in the purchase process for this marketer, but Social now appears with 9% of credit for the total sales volume of the time period we analyzed. We can now credit Social Media for its role in the overall marketing efforts in driving sales. Attribution by channel: 9% 9% 21% 21% 13% 13% DISPLAY DISPLAY DISPLAY_CLICK 7% DISPLAY_CLICK SEARCH 7% SEARCH 18% EMAIL 18% EMAIL COMPARISON PRICE PRICE COMPARISON SOCIAL 32% SOCIAL 32% © 2011 Havas Digital 16
  • 17. Havas Digital Social Media Attribution Beyond User Engagement 3. Optimization of marketing strategies and implementation scenarios The Artemis Social Media Attribution platform enables a new, multi-dimensional focus for marketing spend optimization. • Touchpoints dimension: integration of Paid, Owned and Earned media as all touchpoints, Social and the marketers website are taken into account. • Path to purchase dimension: touchpoints are considered as they occur in time. • Consumer segment and value: differences between consumers are taken into account in the media mix optimization process. By using the data at hand to build a framework of insights into the existing marketing program, we enable marketers to experiment with “what if” scenarios by testing the ef- fects of actionable parameters like media spend, allocation and timing to understand how changes in the media mix affect user behavior. The questions we seek to answer are: “What architecture of Paid media will activate mul- tiplying effects of exchanges between consumers/prospects/influencers?” and “How can we influence this by taking engagement metrics into consideration?”. This approach is geared at day to day operational optimization with a continuous “test and learn” focus to enrich tactical execution with relevant insights. In a nut shell Benefits of our approach: 1. Analyze Social and Digital media holistically by tying disparate data sourc- es into a common framework. 2. Understand the different profitability and outcomes that are likely for dif- ferent online consumer segments by exploiting the heterogeneity of con- sumer journeys with our clustering analysis. 3. Attribute all events that occur in a consumer journey, not only the last handful of clicks. 4. Experiment and evaluate new strategies quickly in a risk-free environment by using a validated simulation. © 2011 Havas Digital 17
  • 18. Havas Digital Social Media Attribution Beyond User Engagement Conclusion 6 In the light of the ever growing complexity of the Digital media landscape, few marketers still believe that there is one perfect answer to their spend allocation challenges. Moreover, were there to be such an answer, it would have a rather short life span until it is disrupted by a large scale shift in consumer behavior, fostered by the Digital media revolution. Havas Digital has taken the standpoint of continuous devel- opment of tools and methodologies that help marketers manage and optimize their marketing efforts in accordance with the level of complexity of each market and consumer segment. We do not believe in one size fits all, neither in marketing strategy nor in relationship management. As we continue developing our toolset, we will publish more results in further Insights documents. In the meantime, we would be delighted to discuss individual business issues and opportunities, whether you are already a Havas Digital client or simply just interested in a more case-specific perspective. Please contact your Havas Digital Account Director, the appropriate Havas Digital Country Managing Director or any authors to find out how many of the emerging opportunities in Digital marketing can play a key role in your overall marketing plans. © 2011 Havas Digital 18
  • 19. Havas Digital Social Media Attribution Beyond User Engagement Resources Resources 7 Media Contacts – www.mediacontacts.com Adwords – adwords.blogspot.com Shumans, Business, Media & Technology – shumans.com John Batelle’s Search Blog – battellemedia.com Pay Per Click Blog – www.ppcblog.co.uk Search Engine Watch – searchenginewatch.com Enquisite – www.enquisite.com/blog/ Wikipedia – www.wikipedia.com Forrester Research – www.forrester.com Gartner Research – www.gartner.com Sources (1) Morpace through eMarketer: Facebook’s impact on Retailers (April 2010) (2) Havas Digital: Artemis Attribution Weighting, Managing the Digital Media Mix (March 2010) http://www.havasdigital.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/HD_Insight_AttributionDM.pdf © 2011 Havas Digital 19
  • 20. Havas Digital Social Media Attribution Beyond User Engagement CONTACT DETAILS 8 We encourage you to contact us directly to discuss, in more details, any concerns you may have regarding this Havas Digital Insight issue. We will be happy to assist you. · katrin.ribant@havasdigital.com · dejan@concentricroi.com · arnaud.parent@fr.havasmedia.com Or contact your Havas Digital LOCAL OFFICE: HAVAS DIGITAL ARGENTINA HAVAS DIGITAL BRAZIL address Humberto Primo 101, Capital Federal. address Rua Luigi Galvani 42, C1103ACC, Ciudad Buenos Aires, Argentina. 11º Andar. Conj. 115. Brooklin 04575-020. Office phone +54 11 5777 7400 São Paulo, Brazil. fax +54 11 5777 7401 Office phone +55 11 2889 5650 country manager Germán Abaroa fax +55 11 5506 4753 email german.abaroa@havasdigital.com country manager André Zimmermann email andre.zimmermann@havasdigital.com HAVAS DIGITAL AUSTRALIA HAVAS DIGITAL canada address 1 Level 16, Town Hall House. 456 Kent Street, Sydney NSW 2000. address 473 Adelaide Street West, Office phone +61 2 8094 7517 Suite 300, Toronto. Ontario, M5V1T1. fax +61 2 9283 9024 Office phone +1 416 480 8692 fax +1 416 480 6666 address 2 113 York Street South, country manager Chris Williams Melbourne VIC 3205. email chris.williams@ca.mediacontacts.com Office phone +61 3 9693 8107 fax +61 3 9690 5706 HAVAS DIGITAL CHILE country manager Nick Behr email nick.behr@au.mediacontacts.com address Almirante Pastene 333, Floor 7, Of. 701. 7500506 - Providencia, Santiago, Chile. HAVAS DIGITAL belgium Office phone +56 714 8000 address Rue Maurice Charlent, 53. fax +56 9 865 3083 1160 Auderghem, Belgium. country manager Gonzalo Parra Office phone +32 2 349 1560 email gonzalo.parra@havasdigital.com fax +32 2 349 1570 country manager Julie Tinant email julie.tinant@be.havasdigital.com © 2011 Havas Digital 20
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