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School	
  Choice	
  Procedures	
  

              Estelle	
  Can3llon	
  
             February	
  23,	
  2011	
  
Why	
  do	
  we	
  care?	
  
(alterna3ve	
  being	
  “laisser-­‐faire”)	
  

•  Equity	
  
     –  In	
  presence	
  of	
  scarcity	
  
     –  In	
  urban	
  contexts	
  where	
  students	
  mobility	
  is	
  high	
  
        and	
  fashion/herding	
  can	
  create	
  conges3on	
  
•  Private	
  versus	
  social	
  preferences	
  over	
  school	
  
   composi3on	
  
     –  Externali3es:	
  social	
  cohesion,	
  academic	
  diversity,	
  .	
  
Top-­‐down	
  or	
  BoQom-­‐up?	
  
•  Premise:	
  We	
  want	
  to	
  take	
  parents	
  /	
  students’	
  
   preferences	
  as	
  much	
  as	
  possible	
  into	
  account	
  
    –  Some	
  combina3on	
  of	
  top-­‐down	
  and	
  boQom-­‐up	
  
    –  Different	
  countries	
  /	
  districts	
  locate	
  themselves	
  
       differently	
  on	
  this	
  scale	
  
	
  
	
  Need	
  to	
  be	
  able	
  to	
  handle	
  preference	
  
     informa3on	
  together	
  with	
  (poli3cal	
  /	
  school)	
  
     priori3es	
  
Three	
  criteria	
  for	
  candidate	
  procedures	
  
•  Efficiency	
  
    –  A	
  procedure	
  is	
  efficient	
  is	
  there	
  does	
  not	
  exist	
  another	
  
         alloca3on	
  of	
  students	
  to	
  schools	
  such	
  that	
  every	
  student	
  is	
  
         beQer	
  off	
  and	
  at	
  least	
  one	
  is	
  strictly	
  beQer	
  off	
  
    	
  
•  No	
  jus1fied	
  envy	
  
    –  There	
  is	
  no	
  student	
  that	
  has	
  a	
  place	
  in	
  a	
  school,	
  whereas	
  
       another	
  one	
  who	
  actually	
  has	
  priority	
  over	
  that	
  student	
  at	
  that	
  
       school,	
  and	
  prefers	
  that	
  school	
  to	
  the	
  school	
  he’s	
  assigned	
  to,	
  
       does	
  not	
  have	
  one.	
  

•  Strategic	
  simplicity	
  
    –  It	
  should	
  be	
  in	
  the	
  interest	
  of	
  parents	
  to	
  reveal	
  their	
  true	
  
       preferences	
  instead	
  of	
  manipula3ng	
  them	
  
    –  Equity	
  and	
  efficiency	
  considera3ons	
  
School	
  choice	
  mechanisms	
  
•  Inputs:	
  
    –  Reports	
  by	
  students	
  over	
  schools	
  (rank	
  order	
  list,	
  
       ROL)	
  
    –  Quotas	
  and	
  student	
  priori3es	
  at	
  each	
  school	
  
    –  School	
  capaci3es	
  
•  No	
  procedure	
  sa3sfy	
  all	
  three	
  criteria	
  when	
  
   priori3es	
  are	
  not	
  strict	
  at	
  all	
  schools	
  
    –  Top	
  trading	
  Cycles	
  and	
  Deferred	
  Acceptance	
  best	
  
       in	
  class	
  
Student-­‐proposing	
  deferred	
  acceptance	
  
algorithm	
  (Gale-­‐Shapley)	
  
•  Students	
  submit	
  their	
  ROLs	
  and	
  schools	
  their	
  priori3es	
  over	
  
     students	
  (use	
  of	
  a	
  3e-­‐breaker	
  if	
  necessary)	
  
•  Step	
  1:	
  Each	
  student	
  proposes	
  to	
  her	
  first	
  choice.	
  Each	
  
     school	
  tenta3vely	
  assigns	
  its	
  seats	
  to	
  its	
  proposers	
  one	
  at	
  a	
  
     3me	
  following	
  their	
  priority	
  order.	
  Any	
  remaining	
  proposer	
  
     is	
  rejected.	
  
•  …	
  
•  Step	
  k:	
  Each	
  student	
  who	
  was	
  rejected	
  in	
  the	
  previous	
  step	
  
     proposes	
  to	
  her	
  next	
  choice.	
  Each	
  school	
  considers	
  the	
  
     students	
  it	
  had	
  tenta3vely	
  accepted	
  in	
  the	
  previous	
  period	
  
     together	
  with	
  the	
  new	
  proposers	
  and	
  accepts	
  tenta3vely	
  
     those	
  with	
  the	
  highest	
  priori3es.	
  It	
  rejects	
  other.	
  	
  
•  The	
  algorithm	
  terminates	
  when	
  no	
  more	
  requests	
  are	
  
     rejected.	
  
	
  
Example	
  

–  4	
  kids,	
  2	
  schools	
  with	
  2	
  seats	
  each	
  
–  Student	
  preferences:	
  
     –     Student	
  a:	
  	
  	
  1	
  	
  	
  2	
  
                                                                           Student-­‐proposing	
  DAA,	
  first	
  round:	
  	
  
     –     Student	
  b:	
  	
  	
  1	
  	
  	
  2	
                       Students	
  apply	
  to	
  their	
  first	
  choice	
  
     –     Student	
  c:	
  	
  	
  1	
  	
  	
  2	
                       school.	
  School	
  1	
  rejects	
  student	
  c	
  
                                                                           	
  
                                                                           Round	
  2:	
  Student	
  c	
  applies	
  to	
  school	
  
     –     Student	
  d:	
  	
  	
  2	
  	
  	
  1	
                       2	
  and	
  is	
  accepted	
  
–  Priori3es	
  over	
  students:	
                                        	
  
                                                                           	
  
     –  School	
  1:	
  	
  a	
  	
  	
  d	
  	
  	
  b	
  	
  	
  c	
  
     –  School	
  2:	
  	
  b	
  	
  	
  a	
  	
  	
  c	
  	
  	
  d	
  

                                                                                                                                   7	
  
Comments	
  
•  Centraliza3on	
  is	
  necessary	
  to	
  make	
  this	
  run	
  
   smoothly	
  (takes	
  a	
  few	
  minutes	
  to	
  run	
  on	
  a	
  
   computer)	
  
•  Poli3cal	
  objec3ves	
  are	
  translated	
  into	
  
   priori3es	
  and	
  quotas	
  
•  Interface	
  for	
  parents	
  to	
  input	
  preferences	
  
Ac3ve	
  field	
  of	
  policy	
  
•  Many	
  school	
  districts	
  are	
  revamping	
  their	
  
   school	
  choice	
  procedures	
  
    –  Drivers:	
  technology	
  and	
  pressure	
  to	
  introduce	
  
       choice	
  
•  Not	
  a	
  “one-­‐size-­‐fits-­‐all”	
  solu3on	
  
    –  Tailoring	
  to	
  policy	
  objec3ves	
  needed	
  
    –  Parents’	
  aspira3ons	
  and	
  poli3cal	
  acceptability	
  
Ac3ve	
  field	
  of	
  research	
  
•  Proper3es	
  of	
  procedures	
  
•  Applica3ons	
  and	
  access	
  to	
  data	
  open	
  an	
  
   opportunity	
  to	
  answer	
  new	
  ques3ons	
  
    –  Long	
  term	
  effects	
  of	
  school	
  choice	
  regula3on	
  on	
  
       school	
  composi3on	
  and	
  student	
  outcomes?	
  
    –  Preference	
  forma3on?	
  
•  “Matching	
  in	
  Prac3ce”	
  network	
  gathers	
  
   informa3on	
  on	
  procedures	
  and	
  outcomes	
  
   across	
  Europe	
  
PRELIMINARY	
  EVIDENCE	
  FROM	
  DUTCH-­‐
SPEAKING	
  PRESCHOOLS	
  IN	
  BRUSSELS	
  
Data	
  
•  Preschool	
  popula3on	
  in	
  Dutch-­‐speaking	
  
   preschools	
  in	
  Brussels	
  as	
  of	
  1	
  October	
  2008	
  	
  
   (10,867	
  kids,	
  150	
  schools,	
  entering	
  class	
  4079)	
  
•  Kid	
  characteris3cs:	
  age,	
  loca3on,	
  na3onality,	
  GOK	
  
   status,	
  socioeconomic	
  class	
  of	
  neighborhood,	
  
   whether	
  Dutch	
  is	
  spoken	
  at	
  home,	
  school	
  
   aQended	
  
•  School	
  characteris3cs:	
  loca3on,	
  network,	
  
   confessional	
  orienta3on,	
  establishments,	
  
   pedagogy	
  
Legal	
  constraints	
  on	
  the	
  mechanisms	
  
Current	
  procedure:	
  
    –  Siblings	
  have	
  priori3es	
  over	
  other	
  kids	
  
    –  30%	
  quota	
  for	
  GOK	
  students	
  
    –  45%	
  quota	
  for	
  Dutch	
  na3ve	
  speakers	
  
    –  Priori3es	
  and	
  quotas	
  implemented	
  through	
  early	
  
       registra3on	
  periods	
  
    –  First	
  come,	
  first	
  served	
  as	
  a	
  3e-­‐breaker	
  
    –  Decentralized	
  
New	
  GOK	
  decree	
  allows	
  them	
  to	
  experiment	
  with	
  
distance	
  as	
  a	
  different	
  3e-­‐breaker	
  
Analysis	
  of	
  the	
  current	
  situa3on	
  –	
  
heterogeneity	
  across	
  schools	
  
                    Percentage	
  of	
  GOK	
  students	
  and	
  na1ve	
  speakers	
  across	
  
                                                   schools	
  

 0.8	
  

 0.7	
  
                                        %	
  GOK	
  students	
  
 0.6	
  
                                        %	
  Dutch	
  @	
  home	
  
 0.5	
  

 0.4	
  

 0.3	
  

 0.2	
  

 0.1	
  

    0	
  
            10%	
  lowest	
     2	
                3	
             4	
     5	
     6	
     7	
     8	
     9	
     10%	
  highest	
  
Analysis	
  of	
  the	
  current	
  situa3on	
  –	
  
distance	
  to	
  school	
  
                             Brussels	
  kids	
  going	
  to	
  preschool	
  in	
  Brussels	
  -­‐	
  closest	
  school	
  
  0.35	
  



   0.3	
  

                                                                                                                                        whole	
  sample	
  
  0.25	
                                                                                                                                low	
  socio	
  
                                                                                                                                        high	
  socio	
  
                                                                                                                                        gok	
  
   0.2	
  
                                                                                                                                        Dutch	
  @	
  home	
  

  0.15	
  



    0.1	
  



  0.05	
  



       0	
  
               closest	
            2	
  to	
  3	
     4	
  to	
  5	
     6	
  to	
  10	
     11	
  to	
  15	
     16	
  to	
  20	
        21	
  to	
  30	
      above	
  30	
  


1141	
  incoming	
  students,	
  958	
  outgoing	
  students,	
  	
  
Genera3ng	
  a	
  counterfactual	
  policy	
  
experiment	
  
•  LOP	
  Brussels	
  is	
  considering	
  to	
  replace	
  its	
  3me	
  
   priority	
  with	
  a	
  distance-­‐based	
  3e	
  breaker	
  .	
  	
  
•  How	
  will	
  kids	
  be	
  impacted?	
  How	
  will	
  schools	
  
   be	
  impacted?	
  	
  
•  Main	
  challenge	
  :	
  We	
  do	
  not	
  observe	
  
   preferences	
  over	
  schools	
  
Calibra3ng	
  preferences	
  
Working	
  assump3ons:	
  
   –  Current	
  procedure	
  can	
  be	
  approximated	
  by	
  a	
  student-­‐
         proposing	
  DAA	
  with	
  socioeconomic	
  status,	
  then	
  distance	
  
         as	
  a	
  3e-­‐breaker	
  
   –  Brussels-­‐based	
  students	
  have	
  preferences	
  over	
  Brussels	
  
         schools	
  that	
  depend	
  on	
  their	
  socioeconomic	
  status	
  (top	
  
         30%,	
  GOK,	
  other)	
  	
  
     	
   	
  uis	
  =	
  α1k	
  	
  distanceis	
  +	
  α2k	
  qualitys	
  +	
  (1-­‐	
  α1k	
  -­‐	
  α2k	
  )εis	
  
     	
  They	
  also	
  have	
  an	
  outside	
  op3on	
  (random	
  u3lity)	
  and	
  
         place	
  the	
  school	
  where	
  they	
  have	
  a	
  sibling	
  first	
  
   –  Out-­‐of-­‐Brussels	
  students	
  have	
  preferences	
  that	
  take	
  the	
  
         form	
  
     	
   	
        	
  uis	
  =	
  δ	
  qualitys	
  +	
  (1-­‐	
  δ)εis	
  
         	
  
Calibra3ng	
  preferences	
  (con3nued)	
  
Calibrate	
  these	
  preferences	
  so	
  that	
  predicted	
  
outcome	
  (distribu3on	
  of	
  ranks	
  of	
  assigned	
  
school)	
  close	
  to	
  actual	
  outcome	
  
α1high	
  =	
  0.55	
  	
  
                             Weight	
  on	
  ε	
  set	
  to	
  0.05	
  
α1GOK	
  =	
  0.70	
  
α1rest	
  =	
  0.58	
  
δ	
  =	
  0.75	
  	
  	
  
Counterfactual	
  1:	
  From	
  3me	
  to	
  distance	
  as	
  a	
  3e-­‐
breaker	
  –	
  aggregate	
  results	
  
Counterfactual	
  1:	
  Distribu3onal	
  aspects	
  
Counterfactual	
  1:	
  Impact	
  on	
  school	
  
popula3on	
  
                         Propor1on	
  of	
  Dutch	
  na1ve	
  speakers	
  -­‐	
  before	
  and	
  aQer	
  
 0.8	
  


 0.7	
  


0.6	
  


 0.5	
  


0.4	
  


0.3	
  


0.2	
  


 0.1	
  


    0	
  
             10%	
       2	
         3	
            4	
          5	
         6	
          7	
      8	
       9	
      10	
  %	
  
            lowest	
                                                                                                 highest	
  
                                             simulated	
  "before"	
     "ater"	
     actual	
  
Impact	
  on	
  school	
  popula3on	
  (cont’d)	
  
                    Propor1on	
  of	
  GOK	
  students	
  	
  before	
  and	
  aQer,	
  per	
  decile	
  of	
  schools	
  
 0.8	
  


 0.7	
  


 0.6	
  


 0.5	
  


 0.4	
  


 0.3	
  


 0.2	
  


 0.1	
  


    0	
  
             10%	
         2	
        3	
        4	
         5	
            6	
            7	
          8	
     9	
      10	
  %	
  
            lowest	
                                                                                                    highest	
  

                                                simulated	
  "before"	
             "ater"	
       actual	
  
Counterfactual	
  1:	
  Likely	
  long	
  term	
  
residen3al	
  effects	
  
•  Mean	
  median	
  distance	
  to	
  school	
  goes	
  from	
  
   1.45	
  km	
  to	
  0.9	
  km	
  
•  Mean	
  max	
  distance	
  to	
  school	
  goes	
  from	
  11.17	
  
   km	
  to	
  10.54	
  km	
  
    –  max	
  distance	
  goes	
  down	
  in	
  41	
  schools	
  out	
  of	
  147	
  
    –  Min	
  max	
  distance	
  goes	
  from	
  0.94	
  km	
  to	
  0.45	
  km	
  	
  
Counterfactual	
  2:	
  School-­‐proposing	
  
DAA	
  
Illustra3on:	
  écoles	
  gardiennes	
  NL	
  de	
  Bruxelles	
  
1.	
  Effet	
  d’un	
  quota	
  sur	
  la	
  mixité	
  sociale	
  
     1	
  


  0.9	
  


  0.8	
  
                                 Propor3on	
  d’élèves	
  GOK	
  par	
  décile	
  d’écoles	
  
  0.7	
  


  0.6	
  


  0.5	
  


  0.4	
  


  0.3	
  


  0.2	
  


  0.1	
  


     0	
  
             1er	
  décile	
      2	
          3	
              4	
          5	
          6	
           7	
      8	
          9	
     10e	
  décile	
  

                       Simula3ons	
  avec	
  quota	
  GOK	
             Simula3ons	
  sans	
  quota	
  GOK	
     Situa3on	
  actuelle	
  
Illustra3on:	
  écoles	
  gardiennes	
  NL	
  de	
  Bruxelles	
  
2.	
  Conséquences	
  redistribu3ves	
  
Illustra3on:	
  écoles	
  gardiennes	
  NL	
  de	
  Bruxelles	
  
3.	
  De	
  l’importance	
  de	
  la	
  procédure	
  
      1	
  


   0.9	
  


   0.8	
  


   0.7	
  


   0.6	
  


   0.5	
  


   0.4	
  


   0.3	
  


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HackDemocracy Brussels 3: Using technology to improve School Choice Procedures

  • 1. School  Choice  Procedures   Estelle  Can3llon   February  23,  2011  
  • 2. Why  do  we  care?   (alterna3ve  being  “laisser-­‐faire”)   •  Equity   –  In  presence  of  scarcity   –  In  urban  contexts  where  students  mobility  is  high   and  fashion/herding  can  create  conges3on   •  Private  versus  social  preferences  over  school   composi3on   –  Externali3es:  social  cohesion,  academic  diversity,  .  
  • 3. Top-­‐down  or  BoQom-­‐up?   •  Premise:  We  want  to  take  parents  /  students’   preferences  as  much  as  possible  into  account   –  Some  combina3on  of  top-­‐down  and  boQom-­‐up   –  Different  countries  /  districts  locate  themselves   differently  on  this  scale       Need  to  be  able  to  handle  preference   informa3on  together  with  (poli3cal  /  school)   priori3es  
  • 4. Three  criteria  for  candidate  procedures   •  Efficiency   –  A  procedure  is  efficient  is  there  does  not  exist  another   alloca3on  of  students  to  schools  such  that  every  student  is   beQer  off  and  at  least  one  is  strictly  beQer  off     •  No  jus1fied  envy   –  There  is  no  student  that  has  a  place  in  a  school,  whereas   another  one  who  actually  has  priority  over  that  student  at  that   school,  and  prefers  that  school  to  the  school  he’s  assigned  to,   does  not  have  one.   •  Strategic  simplicity   –  It  should  be  in  the  interest  of  parents  to  reveal  their  true   preferences  instead  of  manipula3ng  them   –  Equity  and  efficiency  considera3ons  
  • 5. School  choice  mechanisms   •  Inputs:   –  Reports  by  students  over  schools  (rank  order  list,   ROL)   –  Quotas  and  student  priori3es  at  each  school   –  School  capaci3es   •  No  procedure  sa3sfy  all  three  criteria  when   priori3es  are  not  strict  at  all  schools   –  Top  trading  Cycles  and  Deferred  Acceptance  best   in  class  
  • 6. Student-­‐proposing  deferred  acceptance   algorithm  (Gale-­‐Shapley)   •  Students  submit  their  ROLs  and  schools  their  priori3es  over   students  (use  of  a  3e-­‐breaker  if  necessary)   •  Step  1:  Each  student  proposes  to  her  first  choice.  Each   school  tenta3vely  assigns  its  seats  to  its  proposers  one  at  a   3me  following  their  priority  order.  Any  remaining  proposer   is  rejected.   •  …   •  Step  k:  Each  student  who  was  rejected  in  the  previous  step   proposes  to  her  next  choice.  Each  school  considers  the   students  it  had  tenta3vely  accepted  in  the  previous  period   together  with  the  new  proposers  and  accepts  tenta3vely   those  with  the  highest  priori3es.  It  rejects  other.     •  The  algorithm  terminates  when  no  more  requests  are   rejected.    
  • 7. Example   –  4  kids,  2  schools  with  2  seats  each   –  Student  preferences:   –  Student  a:      1      2   Student-­‐proposing  DAA,  first  round:     –  Student  b:      1      2   Students  apply  to  their  first  choice   –  Student  c:      1      2   school.  School  1  rejects  student  c     Round  2:  Student  c  applies  to  school   –  Student  d:      2      1   2  and  is  accepted   –  Priori3es  over  students:       –  School  1:    a      d      b      c   –  School  2:    b      a      c      d   7  
  • 8. Comments   •  Centraliza3on  is  necessary  to  make  this  run   smoothly  (takes  a  few  minutes  to  run  on  a   computer)   •  Poli3cal  objec3ves  are  translated  into   priori3es  and  quotas   •  Interface  for  parents  to  input  preferences  
  • 9. Ac3ve  field  of  policy   •  Many  school  districts  are  revamping  their   school  choice  procedures   –  Drivers:  technology  and  pressure  to  introduce   choice   •  Not  a  “one-­‐size-­‐fits-­‐all”  solu3on   –  Tailoring  to  policy  objec3ves  needed   –  Parents’  aspira3ons  and  poli3cal  acceptability  
  • 10. Ac3ve  field  of  research   •  Proper3es  of  procedures   •  Applica3ons  and  access  to  data  open  an   opportunity  to  answer  new  ques3ons   –  Long  term  effects  of  school  choice  regula3on  on   school  composi3on  and  student  outcomes?   –  Preference  forma3on?   •  “Matching  in  Prac3ce”  network  gathers   informa3on  on  procedures  and  outcomes   across  Europe  
  • 11. PRELIMINARY  EVIDENCE  FROM  DUTCH-­‐ SPEAKING  PRESCHOOLS  IN  BRUSSELS  
  • 12. Data   •  Preschool  popula3on  in  Dutch-­‐speaking   preschools  in  Brussels  as  of  1  October  2008     (10,867  kids,  150  schools,  entering  class  4079)   •  Kid  characteris3cs:  age,  loca3on,  na3onality,  GOK   status,  socioeconomic  class  of  neighborhood,   whether  Dutch  is  spoken  at  home,  school   aQended   •  School  characteris3cs:  loca3on,  network,   confessional  orienta3on,  establishments,   pedagogy  
  • 13. Legal  constraints  on  the  mechanisms   Current  procedure:   –  Siblings  have  priori3es  over  other  kids   –  30%  quota  for  GOK  students   –  45%  quota  for  Dutch  na3ve  speakers   –  Priori3es  and  quotas  implemented  through  early   registra3on  periods   –  First  come,  first  served  as  a  3e-­‐breaker   –  Decentralized   New  GOK  decree  allows  them  to  experiment  with   distance  as  a  different  3e-­‐breaker  
  • 14. Analysis  of  the  current  situa3on  –   heterogeneity  across  schools   Percentage  of  GOK  students  and  na1ve  speakers  across   schools   0.8   0.7   %  GOK  students   0.6   %  Dutch  @  home   0.5   0.4   0.3   0.2   0.1   0   10%  lowest   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10%  highest  
  • 15. Analysis  of  the  current  situa3on  –   distance  to  school   Brussels  kids  going  to  preschool  in  Brussels  -­‐  closest  school   0.35   0.3   whole  sample   0.25   low  socio   high  socio   gok   0.2   Dutch  @  home   0.15   0.1   0.05   0   closest   2  to  3   4  to  5   6  to  10   11  to  15   16  to  20   21  to  30   above  30   1141  incoming  students,  958  outgoing  students,    
  • 16. Genera3ng  a  counterfactual  policy   experiment   •  LOP  Brussels  is  considering  to  replace  its  3me   priority  with  a  distance-­‐based  3e  breaker  .     •  How  will  kids  be  impacted?  How  will  schools   be  impacted?     •  Main  challenge  :  We  do  not  observe   preferences  over  schools  
  • 17. Calibra3ng  preferences   Working  assump3ons:   –  Current  procedure  can  be  approximated  by  a  student-­‐ proposing  DAA  with  socioeconomic  status,  then  distance   as  a  3e-­‐breaker   –  Brussels-­‐based  students  have  preferences  over  Brussels   schools  that  depend  on  their  socioeconomic  status  (top   30%,  GOK,  other)        uis  =  α1k    distanceis  +  α2k  qualitys  +  (1-­‐  α1k  -­‐  α2k  )εis    They  also  have  an  outside  op3on  (random  u3lity)  and   place  the  school  where  they  have  a  sibling  first   –  Out-­‐of-­‐Brussels  students  have  preferences  that  take  the   form        uis  =  δ  qualitys  +  (1-­‐  δ)εis    
  • 18. Calibra3ng  preferences  (con3nued)   Calibrate  these  preferences  so  that  predicted   outcome  (distribu3on  of  ranks  of  assigned   school)  close  to  actual  outcome   α1high  =  0.55     Weight  on  ε  set  to  0.05   α1GOK  =  0.70   α1rest  =  0.58   δ  =  0.75      
  • 19. Counterfactual  1:  From  3me  to  distance  as  a  3e-­‐ breaker  –  aggregate  results  
  • 21. Counterfactual  1:  Impact  on  school   popula3on   Propor1on  of  Dutch  na1ve  speakers  -­‐  before  and  aQer   0.8   0.7   0.6   0.5   0.4   0.3   0.2   0.1   0   10%   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10  %   lowest   highest   simulated  "before"   "ater"   actual  
  • 22. Impact  on  school  popula3on  (cont’d)   Propor1on  of  GOK  students    before  and  aQer,  per  decile  of  schools   0.8   0.7   0.6   0.5   0.4   0.3   0.2   0.1   0   10%   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10  %   lowest   highest   simulated  "before"   "ater"   actual  
  • 23. Counterfactual  1:  Likely  long  term   residen3al  effects   •  Mean  median  distance  to  school  goes  from   1.45  km  to  0.9  km   •  Mean  max  distance  to  school  goes  from  11.17   km  to  10.54  km   –  max  distance  goes  down  in  41  schools  out  of  147   –  Min  max  distance  goes  from  0.94  km  to  0.45  km    
  • 25. Illustra3on:  écoles  gardiennes  NL  de  Bruxelles   1.  Effet  d’un  quota  sur  la  mixité  sociale   1   0.9   0.8   Propor3on  d’élèves  GOK  par  décile  d’écoles   0.7   0.6   0.5   0.4   0.3   0.2   0.1   0   1er  décile   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10e  décile   Simula3ons  avec  quota  GOK   Simula3ons  sans  quota  GOK   Situa3on  actuelle  
  • 26. Illustra3on:  écoles  gardiennes  NL  de  Bruxelles   2.  Conséquences  redistribu3ves  
  • 27. Illustra3on:  écoles  gardiennes  NL  de  Bruxelles   3.  De  l’importance  de  la  procédure   1   0.9   0.8   0.7   0.6   0.5   0.4   0.3   0.2   0.1   0   1   11   21   31   41   51   61   71   premier  arrivé,  premier  servi   AAD-­‐élèves   AAD-­‐écoles