More Related Content More from GW Solar Institute (20) Richard Perez | Practical Solar Analysis4. Each square foot in New York can generate 20 kWh of
photovoltaic electricity per year
Photograph courtesy of AltPower, Inc.
Richard Perez, et al.
5. 120 billion kWh / year
More than twice
CONED’s sales
73 million metric tons
CO2
(13 million cars)
© Richard Perez
7. Only 0.75% of New York’s
area* would be needed to
produce all the electricity
used in the State
*using 10% PV conversion
Buildings, parking lots and
roadways cover almost 3%
of New York’s area
© Richard Perez
9. 9 MW
10 kW
Richard Perez, et al.
12. 7%US electricity
Hydropower artificial lakes > 100,000 km2
© Richard Perez
14. © R. Perez et al.
World energy use
16 TW-yr
per year
~ 475 exajoules
16
~ 460 Quads
15. RENEWABLES
1,2
25-70 WIND
© R. Perez et al.
per year
Waves11,3 215
0.2-2 total
Natural Gas 1,8
3 -11 per year
240
OTEC1,4
total
Petroleum 1,8
2 – 6 per year ANWR
Biomass 1,5
3 – 4 per year
16 90-300
HYDRO 1,6 Total
0.3 – 2 per year
TIDES 1 Geothermal1,7
0.3 per year
Uranium 1,9
900
FINITE ENERGY Total reserve
RESERVES
COAL 1,8
16. 1,2
25-70 WIND
© R. Perez et al.
per year
Waves11,3 215
0.2-2 total
SOLAR 10
Natural Gas 1,8
23,000 per year
3 -11 per year
240
OTEC1,4
total
Petroleum 1,8
2 – 6 per year ANWR
World energy use
16 TW-yr Biomass 1,5
per year
3 – 4 per year
90-300
HYDRO 1,6 Total
0.3 – 2 per year
TIDES 1 Geothermal1,7
0.3 per year
Uranium 1,9
900
Total reserve
COAL 1,8
25. PV IMPACT AT 10% CAPCITY PENETRATION
NO PV
PV at 10% Peak penetration 8760 hours
NO PV
PV at 10% Peak penetration
Displacing highest stress
8760 hours
© Richard Perez et al.
26. Minimal Load Management
or Storage
NO PV
PV at 10% Peak penetration
Displacing highest stress
8760 hours
© Richard Perez et al.
27. SOLAR ENERGY IS RELIABLE IN NEW YORK
Heat wave
© Richard Perez, et al.
A/C electrical
demand peak
29. NO PV
PV at 10% Peak penetration 8760 hours
Site-time specific PV output information
Typical (TMY) data not suitable
© Richard Perez, et al.
30. SATELLITE-DERIVED SOLAR RESOURCE
TILTED IRRADIANCE
Modeled Irradiance
MODELS
DAYLIGHT
Luminous efficacy
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
Clear low sun blue scale
-60
-80
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
Sky luminance Vertical Diffuse
Angular Distribution Illuminances
© R. Perez et al
31. 2007 – Real Time
Clean Power Research
SolarAnywhere R
TILTED IRRADIANCE
Modeled Irradiance
MODELS
DAYLIGHT
1-hour to 7-Day
Forecasts
Luminous efficacy
1998 – 2006
80
60
NSRDB NREL
40
20
0
-20
-40
Clear low sun blue scale
-60
-80
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
Sky luminance Vertical Diffuse
Angular Distribution Illuminances
© R. Perez et al
32. Summer 2006 peak demand day
New York City
12000
11500
11000
L o a d (M W )
10500
10000
9500
9000
NYC L O A D
8500
NYC L O A D with 1 0 0 0 M W P V
8000
© Richard Perez, et al.
33. Commonwealth Edison
Minnesota Power and Light
HAWAIIAN ELECTRIC Indianapolis Power & Light
First Energy
Wisconsin Public Service Corp
Central Illinois Light Co
Black Hills Corporation
Wisconsin Electric Power Co
Idaho Power Company
Northern States Power
Ameren
Seattle Dept. of Lighting
Illinois Power Company
Bonneville Power Administration
Portland General
Central Maine Power
Consolidated Edison
Orange and Rockland
Cambridge Electric Light Co
Boston Edison
Tucson Electric United Illuminating Co
Salt River Project Rochester Gas & Electric
Arizona Public Service
SMUD
S.Diego Gas & Electric Co Tennessee Valley Authority
Pacific Gas & Electric City of Chattanooga
Nevada Power
Jacksonville Electric Authority
Tampa Electric
Florida Power and Light
Lincoln Electric System
Colorado Public Service Co
Omaha Public Power District Golden Spread Electric Coop
City of Austin
© Richard Perez et al., ASRC
35. Idaho Power Company
Nevada Power
Pacific Gas & Electric
S.Diego Gas & Electric Co
EFFECTIVE CAPACITY
SMUD
Rochester Gas & Electric
Omaha Public Power District
1991-2003 tendencies
Arizona Public Service
Golden Spread Electric Coop
Colorado Public Service Co
Salt River Project
Lincoln Electric System
Illinois Power Company
United Illuminating Co
Tucson Electric
Ameren
Boston Edison
Cambridge Electric Light Co
Northern States Power
Wisconsin Electric Power Co
Orange and Rockland
Central Illinois Light Co
Black Hills Corporation
Wisconsin Public Service Corp
Consolidated Edison
First Energy
Florida Power and Light
City of Chattanooga
Indianapolis Power & Light
Tampa Electric
Commonwealth Edison
Hawaiian Electric
Central Maine Power
2000-2005
Jacksonville Electric Authority
Anomaly Authority
Tennesee Valley
2002-03
Portland General
experimental
Minnesota Power and Light
values
Bonneville Power Administration .
1991-estimates
Seattle Dept. of Lighting
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
© Richard Perez et al., ASRC 2-axis-tracking reference ELCC
38. X Sub-Island with enough generation to meet demand
Sub-Islands with insufficient generation to meet demand
Boston
Toronto
Detroit
NYC
Cleveland
Northeast Electrical Island Boundary
© Richard Perez, et al.
39. NYC $1 Billion
(Reuters)
$1.1 Billion
(The Guardian)
US-Can $6.8 - $10.3 B
(ICF Consulting)
Perez et al., ASRC
41. 18:00 GMT
17:00 GMT
As little as 500 MW of
PV dispersed around
the major northeastern
cities would have
prevented the blackout
An investment of $ 3
billion 20:00 GMT
19:00 GMT
Outage cost $ 8 billion
© Richard Perez, et al.
44. Very High Penetration
Storage & Load Management
2000
16000 S o la r G e ne ra tio n P e a king s to ra ge utiliza tio n
No rma l s to ra ge o r v a ria ble ge n E xc e s s s o la r to s to ra ge
Base Load
12000
1500
N et L o ad (M W )
8000
1000
4000
500
0
0
-4000
-5 0 0
© Richard Perez, et al.
48. What is the value of PV for New York?
Value to S ystem O w n ers U tility C on stitu en ts
cost
E qu ipm en t
benefit cost
In cen tives
benefit cost
U tility B ill
benefit cost
T ax E ffects
benefit
U tility C ost S avin gs
benefit
C on stitu en t B en efits
N et B en efit ??? ??? ???
© Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
49. What is the value of PV for New York?
Value to S ystem O w n ers U tility C on stitu en ts
cost
E qu ipm en t
benefit cost
In cen tives
benefit cost
U tility B ill
benefit cost
T ax E ffects
benefit
U tility C ost S avin gs
benefit
C on stitu en t B en efits
N et B en efit ??? ??? ???
© Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
50. What is the value of PV for New York?
Value to S ystem O w n ers U tility C on stitu en ts
cost
E qu ipm en t
benefit cost
In cen tives
benefit cost
U tility B ill
benefit cost
T ax E ffects
benefit
U tility C ost S avin gs
benefit
C on stitu en t B en efits
N et B en efit ??? ??? ???
© Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
51. What is the value of PV for New York?
S ystem O w n ers U tility C on stitu en ts
cost
E qu ipm en t
benefit cost
In cen tives
benefit cost
U tility B ill
benefit cost
T ax E ffects
benefit
U tility C ost S avin gs
benefit
C on stitu en t B en efits
N et B en efit ??? ??? ???
© Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
52. What is the value of PV for New York?
S ystem O w n ers U tility C on stitu en ts
cost
E qu ipm en t
benefit cost
In cen tives
benefit cost
U tility B ill
benefit cost
T ax E ffects
benefit
U tility C ost S avin gs
benefit
C on stitu en t B en efits
N et B en efit ??? ??? ???
© Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
53. What is the value of PV for New York?
S ystem O w n ers U tility C on stitu en ts
cost
E qu ipm en t
benefit cost
In cen tives
benefit cost
U tility B ill
benefit cost
T ax E ffects
benefit
U tility C ost S avin gs
benefit
C on stitu en t B en efits
N et B en efit ??? ??? ???
© Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
54. What is the value of PV for New York?
S ystem O w n ers U tility C on stitu en ts
cost
E qu ipm en t
benefit cost
In cen tives
benefit cost
U tility B ill
benefit cost
T ax E ffects
benefit
U tility C ost S avin gs
benefit
C on stitu en t B en efits
N et B en efit ??? ??? ???
© Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
55. What is the value of PV for New York?
S ystem O w n ers U tility C on stitu en ts
cost
E qu ipm en t
benefit cost
In cen tives
benefit cost
U tility B ill
benefit cost
T ax E ffects
benefit
U tility C ost S avin gs
benefit
C on stitu en t B en efits
Energy Production Value
N et B en efit ??? ??? ???
Generation Capacity Value
T&D capacity deferral value
Loss savings
Environmental compliance value
Fuel price hedge protection © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
56. Long-term, system-wide rate protection
Environmental health benefits
Business development opportunities (job and business creation)
Use of in-state resource and reduction of state imports
Power grid security enhancement
Disaster recovery
S ystem O w n ers U tility C on stitu en ts
cost
E qu ipm en t
benefit cost
In cen tives
benefit cost
U tility B ill
benefit cost
T ax E ffects
benefit
U tility C ost S avin gs
benefit
C on stitu en t B en efits
Energy Production Value
N et B en efit ??? ??? ???
Generation Capacity Value
T&D capacity deferral value
Loss savings
INITIAL EVALUATION
Environmental compliance value
Fuel price hedge protection © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
57. Long-term, system-wide rate protection
Environmental health benefits
Business development opportunities (job and business creation)
Use of in-state resource and reduction of state imports
What is the value of PV for New York?
Power grid security enhancement
Disaster recovery
S ystem O w n ers U tility C on stitu en ts
cost
E qu ipm en t
benefit cost
In cen tives
benefit cost
U tility B ill
benefit cost
T ax E ffects
benefit
U tility C ost S avin gs
benefit
C on stitu en t B en efits
Energy Production Value
N et B en efit ??? ??? ???
Generation Capacity Value
T&D capacity deferral value
Loss savings
INITIAL EVALUATION
Environmental compliance value
Fuel price hedge protection © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
58. 3 CASE STUDIES
CAPITAL
WEST
LONG
ISLAND
Energy Production Value
Generation Capacity Value
T&D capacity deferral value
Loss savings
INITIAL EVALUATION
Environmental compliance value
Fuel price hedge protection © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
59. ENERGY PRODUCTION VALUE
LBMP
Location Based
Marginal Pricing
CAPITAL
WEST
LONG
PV Value / MWh ISLAND
ALL YEAR P V G e o m e try AVERAGE
o
S o u th e s t 3 0 T ilt
L o c a tio n P R IC E
L o n g Is la n d $ 109 $ 93
C a p ita l $ 78 $ 73
W est $ 62 $ 55
SUMMER P V G e o m e try AVERAGE
o
S o u th e s t 3 0 T ilt
L o c a tio n P R IC E
L o n g Is la n d $ 123 $ 91
C a p ita l $ 81 $ 69
W est $ 73 $ 60 © Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
60. ENERGY PRODUCTION VALUE
CONGESTION
Penalty
CAPITAL
WEST
LONG
PV Value / MWh ISLAND
ALL YEAR PV Geometry AVERAGE
Southest 30o Tilt
Location PRICE
Long Island $ (34) $ (24)
Capital $ (7) $ (8)
West $ (2) $ (2)
SUMMER PV Geometry AVERAGE
Southest 30o Tilt
Location PRICE
Long Island $ (39) $ (19)
Capital $ (2) $ (1)
West $ - $ -
© Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
62. ELCC-SLC COMPOSITE CAPACITY CREDIT
CAPITAL
WEST
LONG
ISLAND
100% C apac ity C redit W es t
L.Is land
C apac ity C redit L.Is land
C apac ity C redit C apital
C apac ity C redit C apital
C apac ity F ac tor W es t
C apac ity F ac tor L.Is land
80% C apac ity F ac tor L.Is land
C apac ity F ac tor C apital
C a p a c ity C re d it
60%
40%
20%
0%
2% 5% 10% 15% 20%
G rid P e n e tra tio n
© Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
63. GENERATION CAPACITY VALUE
Unlike energy, is not a directly traded commodity
But it can be estimated:
• NYISO DR programs provide up to $100 per kW per
year for stand-by customer-sited capacity that may, or
may not be called upon.
• Demand-based tariffs e.g., $180/kW per year upstate
(National Grid) and $250/kW per year downstate
(ConEdison).
© Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
64. ALL YEAR P V G e o m e try AVERAGE
o
GENERATION iltCAPACITY3VALUE
S o u th e s t 3 0 T
L o c a tio n P R IC E
L o n g Is la n d $ 109 $ 9
C a p ita l $ 78 $ 73
W est $ 62 $ 55
Unlike energy,enot try directlyVtraded commodity
PV G om e a
SUMMER A ERAGE
o
S o u th e s t 3 0 T ilt
L o c a tio n P R IC E
But it can be estimated: $
L o n g Is la n d $ 123 91
C a p ita l $ 81 $ 69
W est $ 73 $ 60
• NYISO DR programs provide up to $100 per kW per
year for stand-by customer-sited capacity that may, or
may not be called upon.
•
Demand-based tarrifs e.g., $180/kW per year upstate
10.9 ¢ per kWh Displaced energy year downstate
(National Grid) and $250/kW per
(ConEdison).
+ 4.5 ¢ per kWh Displaced capacity
15.4 ¢ per kWh value of net metered systems in L.I.
Net-metered retail rate in L. I. 20 ¢ per kWh
X
© Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff
65. Long-term, system-wide rate protection
Environmental health benefits
Business development opportunities (job and
business creation)
Energy Production Value
Use of in-state resource and reduction of state
Generation Capacity Value
imports
T&D capacity deferral value
Power grid security77%
enhancement
Loss savings
Disaster recovery
Very likely that utility
Environmental compliance value
VALUE TO COST RATIO Fuel price hedge protection
>>100%
Value to Cost Ratio
15.4 ¢ per kWh Value to utility
77%
Net-metered retail to utility I.
Cost rate in L. 20 ¢ per kWh
© Richard Perez & Thomas Hoff