How to use megatrends to trigger innovations, select strategic opportunities and define future visions Presentación sobre el uso de megatendencias para fomentar la innovación, ayudar a definir estrategias y visiones futuras. Congreso "Creatividad y Crisis" 16 de Noviembre 2012. Asocrea y Universidad Complutense de Madrid

1. MEGATRENDS
BOOSTING IMAGINATION AND INNOVATION
Gloria Álvarez Hernández, EMEA Sales Operations, Alcatel-Lucent
Smirt Collins, Market & Consumer Insights, Alcatel-Lucent
November 2012
COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

2. PALEOFUTURE
ONCE IMAGINED FUTURES
ARTS LITERATURE & CINEMA
TECHNOLOGY
1999: 2010 NTT Docomo vision 2009: LTE vision. Alcatel-Lucent 2010: NTT Docomo vision
2007: 2010 NTT Docomo vision, Old friends 2009: Mocom 2020 vision 2010: 2014 Future of screen
2008: Nokia morph nanotechnology 2009: Nokia vision 2015 2010: Forbes Your life in 2020
2009: The Wireless Future of Medicine 2011: A day made of glass
2012: Project Glass: One day
Source:
Paleofuture, concept invented by Mark Novak www.paleofuture.com; Villamard: http://www.urbanghostsmedia.com/2011/03/1910-vintage-postcards-
depict-year-2000/; http://www.flickr.com/photos/amphalon/sets/72157615623434624/with/3367567475/ ; Literature & Cinema: Google images;
Technology: 2012 @guirepso several resources @ http://www.scoop.it/t/paleofuture RESERVED.
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3. KEY CONCEPTS IN SCENARII PLANNING
MICROTREND TREND COUNTER / WILD CARD MEGATREND
Seed of Change, ANTI TREND
Week Signal
• Mini trend • Behavior Pattern • Reaction to a • Low probability • Significant global
• Uncertain future in economic, trend • High potential change, Inevitable
• Notable change environmental, • Low impact impact on • Several trends collide
with very limited social conditions society and generate a
DEFINITION
effects, Low impact • Medium impact megatrend
IMPACT • Wide-reaching impact
• Maybe a starting
trend or only on society
regional
• Short/Mid/
TIMING • Short /Mid term • Mid /Long term • Mid/Long term
Long term
• Mid/Long term
• “moustache” • Mobile • Low “de-tech” • Tsunami • Aging population
fashion penetration services • Terrorist attack • 24x7 Connectivity
• Secure information • Smartphones • Open data vs • Earthquake • Neo-urbanization
EXAMPLES
in Africa • Health Privacy
• Self suficient house applications • “Rural turning”
Source: Gloria Alvarez Hernández & Smirt Collins, Alcatel-Lucent 2012 based on several resources
http://ew.eea.europa.eu/research/info_resources/reports/Final_Literature_Review_Report_FINNov07_9473.pdf
Trends and Megatrends - Ullrich Lorenz & Alexander Storch, Umweltbundesamt – 2010
iKnow several studies – 2011
COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Alcatel-Lucent megatrends research

4. MEGATRENDS FRAMEWORK
4
COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
2011

5. THE STORY OF MEGATRENDS
1980
Naisbitt
invented
the concept
PEOPLE
ORGANIZATIONS
BUSINESS
SCHOOLS GOVERNMENT/EU VENDORS CONSULTING COMPANIES
http://www.scoop.it/t/megatrend COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

6. MEGATRENDS RESEARCH
ALCATEL-LUCENT
• Methodology: Expert International Workshop
• Participants: ENCP Business School, Alcatel-Lucent and Telecommunication companies
• Results: Key megatrends impacting ICT sector, megatrends and trends map, market analysis*, blog
series**
* http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/
COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
** http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/blogs/corporate/tag/megatrends/

7. 7 MEGATRENDS + 2 IN PROGRESS
168 DIGITAL NATIVE ED-YOU-CATION
“ALWAYS ON” GENERATION ACCELERATION INDIVIDUAL CENTERED LEARNING
SUSTAINABLE BY DESIGN REJUVENAGING NETIZENS TO GOVERNMENT
SUSTAINABILITY AS A RAPIDLY-INCREASING LIFE EXPECTANCIES DIGITAL MEDIA EMPOWERING
COMPETITIVE IMPERATIVE CITIZENS
EN PROCESO
EN PROCESO
NEO-URBANIZATION BLURRING B2SHE DEVICEOLOGY
BOUNDARIES BETWEEN
URBAN, SUBURBAN, AND RURAL
DIGITAL NATIVE ACCELERATION VIDEO
7
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXV-yaFmQNk&feature=youtube_gdata_player
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2011

8. USING MEGATRENDS
CREATE INNOVATIONS
• Mentoring program
Creativity and innovation sessions
• Women professionals across different sectors
Telecommunications, education, retail & food, consulting,
services, entrepreneurship
• Techniques and methods
• Results
During our sessions two of my entrepreneur mentees discovered
tangible areas of innovation for their own businesses
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9. USING MEGATRENDS
IDENTIFY, ANALIZE AND ASSESS STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES
1 Ideation, imagination
84 opportunities identified
2 Categorization, grouping, filtering, selection
8 strategic projects selected
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10. USING MEGATRENDS
DEVELOPE FUTURE VISIONS
Analyzing megatrends New visions and
intersection - megatrends impact business models
on other megatrends
Neo-urbanization
168 (24x7 Sustainable
Connectivity) by design
Ed-you-cation
Megatrends
http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/megatrends-neo-urbanization.php
http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/megatrends-sustainable-by-design.php
http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/megatrends-ed-you-cation.php
http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/knowledge-center/megatrends/megatrends-168-24x7.php
COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

11. CONCLUSIONS
1. Analysis of Megatrends a key tool for sensing the future
2. Combining creativity and innovation tools together with
megatrends tool can help to generate new visions,
strategies and translate in product, market and customer
innovations
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12. CONTACT DETAILS
Gloria Alvarez Hernández
EMEA Sales Operations, Alcatel-Lucent
Twitter: @guirepso
Smirt Collins
Market & Consumer Insights, Alcatel-Lucent
Twitter: @SmirtCollins
COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

13. COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

14. COPYRIGHT © 2012 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.