Tactical move to “Take Profit Stance” Since the KLCI made a Wave 3 low at
801.27 (Oct ’08), the next key swings were at 936.63 (Wave 4A in Jan ’09) and
at 836.51 (Wave 4B in Mar ’09). We have peaked at 1,059.88 for Wave 4C.
There is an obvious minor 5 sub-wave sequence that ended the KLCI’s
rebound run to 1,059.88 on 27 May ’09.
Upward retracement targets for the KLCI were met. Our KLCI rebound
targets of 1,043.78 and 1,053.18 were slightly exceeded. With abundant
bearish divergence indicators (ADX, CCI, MACD, MACD Histogram, Oscillator,
RSI, ROC and Stochastic), we believe that the KLCI has peaked temporarily at
1,059.88.
The KL Plantation Index (KLPLN) peaked at 5,515.37. The KLPLN Index
peaked at this level on 21 May ’09. With the obvious bearish divergence
indicators on this index and also the sequence of poorer profit figures for SIME
and KLK, we believe that the KLPLN Index has much further room to fall.
CPOF Elliott Wave Count is also “3-3-5 Flat”. With the KLCI and KLPLN
Indices (and some of their key plantation components like IOICORP and KLK)
having a rebound “3-3-5” Flat Wave structure, the CPOF also traced out a
similar Wave rebound to RM2,799. Ample bearish divergence at RM2,799 also
suggests that the CPOF had peaked at that level on 13 May ’09.
Watch the Ringgit against USD. Some short-term hedge funds had entered
Malaysia in the last 2 months. With this, currency and equity market
appreciation for them may be in the 10% to 30%-region in total. As such, they
may not have any hesitation in exiting their speculative trades. Therefore, do
watch the Ringgit’s prices against the USD as a sign of hedge funds exiting the
country.
Tactically, take most positions off the table. As mentioned in our special
article on 10 Apr ’09, we stated that the “Bull Run” that began in early Mar ’09
was one of a “Bluff-Bull” nature. We firmly believe that a temporary top for the
KLCI formed yesterday at 1,059.88. As such, take most equity on 27 May
positions off the table and realize profits. A larger cash pile is preferable in view
of the potential US and local market downturn in the next few weeks.
News flow has turned negative. The poorer recent Malaysia GDP figures
have taken the markets by surprise. Also, the results of the plantation
companies such as SIME and KLK suggest that the market has run ahead of
true economic fundamentals.
Volumes and market liquidity shrinking As the market rose to 1,037.81, the
traded volumes were quite high (just under 4b). However, with the market
rising to higher levels such as 1,059.88, volumes traded were between 1b to
2b. As liquidity shrinks, it is more difficult for large funds to sell. Selling or
liquidation will take more days to complete and therefore, it has shown up in
the exhausting and bearish divergent indicators.
The defensive stocks are: We believe that despite the potential KLCI
downturn, there are some price defensive components. Among them are
AIRPORT, MMCCORP, PROTON & SUNCITY. Continue to buy them on dips.
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Special Technical Perspective
1. Equity Research
PP11072/03/2010 (023549)
TECHNICALS 29 May 2009
Special Technical Perspective
Highs seen on the KLCI, KLPLN Index, CPOF?
Lee Cheng Hooi
A temporary high seen at 1,059.88 for the KLCI
chenghooi.lee@maybank-ib.com
(603) 2297 8694 A high point was also seen on the KL Plantation Index at 5,515.37
An obvious rebound CPO peak seen at RM2,799 too
We advise clients to “Take Profits” since our April Buy Call of 917.89
on the KLCI
Tactical move to “Take Profit Stance” Since the KLCI made a Wave 3 low at
801.27 (Oct ’08), the next key swings were at 936.63 (Wave 4A in Jan ’09) and
at 836.51 (Wave 4B in Mar ’09). We have peaked at 1,059.88 for Wave 4C.
There is an obvious minor 5 sub-wave sequence that ended the KLCI’s
rebound run to 1,059.88 on 27 May ’09.
Upward retracement targets for the KLCI were met. Our KLCI rebound
targets of 1,043.78 and 1,053.18 were slightly exceeded. With abundant
bearish divergence indicators (ADX, CCI, MACD, MACD Histogram, Oscillator,
RSI, ROC and Stochastic), we believe that the KLCI has peaked temporarily at
1,059.88.
The KL Plantation Index (KLPLN) peaked at 5,515.37. The KLPLN Index
peaked at this level on 21 May ’09. With the obvious bearish divergence
indicators on this index and also the sequence of poorer profit figures for SIME
and KLK, we believe that the KLPLN Index has much further room to fall.
CPOF Elliott Wave Count is also “3-3-5 Flat”. With the KLCI and KLPLN
Indices (and some of their key plantation components like IOICORP and KLK)
having a rebound “3-3-5” Flat Wave structure, the CPOF also traced out a
similar Wave rebound to RM2,799. Ample bearish divergence at RM2,799 also
suggests that the CPOF had peaked at that level on 13 May ’09.
Watch the Ringgit against USD. Some short-term hedge funds had entered
Malaysia in the last 2 months. With this, currency and equity market
appreciation for them may be in the 10% to 30%-region in total. As such, they
may not have any hesitation in exiting their speculative trades. Therefore, do
watch the Ringgit’s prices against the USD as a sign of hedge funds exiting the
country.
Tactically, take most positions off the table. As mentioned in our special
article on 10 Apr ’09, we stated that the “Bull Run” that began in early Mar ’09
was one of a “Bluff-Bull” nature. We firmly believe that a temporary top for the
KLCI formed yesterday at 1,059.88. As such, take most equity on 27 May
positions off the table and realize profits. A larger cash pile is preferable in view
of the potential US and local market downturn in the next few weeks.
News flow has turned negative. The poorer recent Malaysia GDP figures
have taken the markets by surprise. Also, the results of the plantation
companies such as SIME and KLK suggest that the market has run ahead of
true economic fundamentals.
Volumes and market liquidity shrinking As the market rose to 1,037.81, the
traded volumes were quite high (just under 4b). However, with the market
rising to higher levels such as 1,059.88, volumes traded were between 1b to
2b. As liquidity shrinks, it is more difficult for large funds to sell. Selling or
liquidation will take more days to complete and therefore, it has shown up in
the exhausting and bearish divergent indicators.
The defensive stocks are: We believe that despite the potential KLCI
downturn, there are some price defensive components. Among them are
AIRPORT, MMCCORP, PROTON & SUNCITY. Continue to buy them on dips.
2. Special Technical Perspective
Chart 1: CPOF Weekly Chart with Elliott Wave Count
Source: Advanced GET, Maybank-IB
The CPOF made an all-time high of RM4,486 in Mar ’08. Since then, it plunged
to its key levels of RM3,033 (Wave 1), RM3,750 (Wave 2) and RM1,331 (Wave
3). Since the low of RM1,331, prices have more than doubled to RM2,799 (for
its Wave 4C rebound).
We believed that the CPOF’s rebound from RM1,331 will stall in the RM2,536
to RM2,540 retracement area. But it stalled temporarily at that level and then
shot upwards to RM2,798 and RM2,799 in May ’09 before falling off.
We now believe that the CPOF may fall further towards its supports of
RM2,058, RM2,322 and RM2,350. Sell at the current resistance levels of
RM2,505, RM2,604 and RM2,799 for a longer-term drift down towards the
indicative support areas above.
Chart 2: KLPLN Index Daily Chart with Elliott Wave Count
Source: Advanced GET, Maybank-IB
TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE ▪ 29 May 2009 Page 2 of 6
3. Special Technical Perspective
The KLPLN Index rose on its rebound move towards the 5,515.37 high (21
May ’09). We believe that the KLPLN has reached its Wave 5 rebound to that
level. There are abundant bearish divergent signals on the KLPLN Index. As
such, selling on any rebound to the resistance areas of 5,391, 5,411 and 5,513
could cap the KLPLN’s upside moves, whilst the support areas of 4,773, 5,008
and 5,172 could be weaker.
Chart 3: KLK Daily Chart with Elliott Wave Count
Source: Advanced GET, Maybank-IB
With a significantly weaker profit trend for KLK, the market reacted by selling
KLK down viciously since its Wave 5 high of RM12.50 (21 May ’09). There are
abundant bearish divergent signals on KLK. Therefore, selling on any rebound
to the resistance areas of RM11.50, RM12.00 and RM12.50 could cap KLK’s
upside moves, whilst the support areas of RM10.00, RM10.90 and RM11.20
could be weaker.
Chart 4: IOICORP Daily Chart with Elliott Wave Count
Source: Advanced GET, Maybank-IB
TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE ▪ 29 May 2009 Page 3 of 6
4. Special Technical Perspective
With a significantly weaker tone for plantation counters, the market reacted by
selling IOICORP down viciously since its Wave 5 high of RM4.86 (21 May ’09).
There are abundant bearish divergent signals on IOICORP. As such, selling on
any rebound to the resistance areas of RM4.60, RM4.72 and RM4.86 could
cap IOICORP’s upside moves, whilst the support areas of RM4.02, RM4.28
and RM4.52 could be weaker.
Chart 5: ASIATIC Daily Chart with Elliott Wave Count
Source: Advanced GET, Maybank-IB
With a significantly weaker tone for plantation counters, the market reacted by
selling ASIATIC down viciously since its Wave 5 high of RM5.65 (28 May ’09).
There are abundant bearish divergent signals on ASIATIC. Therefore, selling
on any rebound to the resistance areas of RM5.45, RM5.65 and RM5.90 could
cap ASIATIC’s upside moves, whilst the support areas of RM4.70, RM5.10 and
RM5.35 could be weaker.
Chart 6: SIME Daily Chart with Elliott Wave Count
Source: Advanced GET, Maybank-IB
TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE ▪ 29 May 2009 Page 4 of 6
5. Special Technical Perspective
With a significantly weaker tone to its earnings, market players reacted by
selling SIME down viciously since its Wave 5 high of RM7.05 (21 May ’09).
There are abundant bearish divergent signals on SIME. As such, selling on any
rebound to the resistance areas of RM6.75, RM7.00 and RM7.05 could cap
SIME’s upside moves, whilst the support areas of RM6.00 RM6.25 and
RM6.60 could be weaker.
Chart 7: PPB Daily Chart with Elliott Wave Count
Source: Advanced GET, Maybank-IB
With a significantly weaker tone for plantation sector, the market reacted by
selling PPB down viciously since its Wave 5 high of RM11.70 (13 May ’09).
There are abundant bearish divergent signals for PPB. Therefore, selling on
any rebound to the resistance areas of RM10.80, RM11.20 and RM11.70 could
cap PPB’s upside moves, whilst the support areas of RM10.00, RM10.30 and
RM10.60 could be weaker.
Take action and profits on any rally
We believe that it is time to pare down portfolios and take out good profits for
this “Bluff Bull” rebound run. US, European and Asian markets as well as the
local bourse have run ahead of true economic fundamentals. As a result of
their overbought conditions, we believe that investors should move more into
cash and reduce their equity positions.
Since our market Buy Call on the KLCI on 10 April at 917.89, we suggest
taking profits on rallies. We see the plantation sector, CPOF and the KLPLN
Index as technically tired and overvalued. Confirmation that the sector had run
ahead of its fundamentals came with a poor set of results for SIME and KLK.
We echo our fundamental analyst’s “Underweight” Call on the plantation
sector.
Meanwhile, continue to accumulate counters such as AIRPORT, ASTRO,
MMCCORP, PROTON, SHELL and SUNCITY on weakness. They look very
strong technically and seem price defensive in the potential KLCI downturn.
TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE ▪ 29 May 2009 Page 5 of 6
6. Special Technical Perspective
Definition of Technical Ratings
Maybank Investment Bank Research uses the following technical rating system:
FIRM BUY (TECHNICAL) Total return is expected to exceed 20% in the next 1 month.
ACCUMULATE (TECHNICAL) Total return is expected to be above 10% in the next 2 weeks.
STRONG SELL (TECHNICAL) Total return is expected to drop below 20% in the next 1 month.
TAKE PROFIT (TECHNICAL) Total return is expected to drop below 10% in the next 2 weeks.
SHORT-TERM BUY (TECHNICAL) Total return is expected to be between 5-10% in the next 2 weeks. However, the upside may or may not
be sustainable.
Applicability of Technical Ratings
Technical ratings are purely based on price and volume-related indicators extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad, explained in the
Glossary below. Featured securities are selected as and when their technical indicators appear convincing for an investment action. Maybank
Investment Bank Bhd expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise its Technical Ratings to reflect new information, events or
circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
Glossary of key technical terms
COMMODITY CHANNEL An oscillator used in technical analysis to help determine when an investment vehicle has been overbought and
INDEX (CCI) oversold. It quantifies the relationship between the asset's price, a moving average (MA) of the asset's price,
and normal deviations (D) from that average.
DIRECTIONAL An indicator for identifying when a definable trend is present in an instrument, i.e. the DMI tells whether an
MOVEMENT INDEX (DMI) instrument is trending or not.
MOVING AVERAGE A trend lagging momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. A
CONVERGENCE “signal line” is also plotted on top of the MACD to function as a trigger for buy and sell signals.
DIVERGENCE (MACD)
OSCILLATOR A technical analysis tool that is banded between two extreme values and built with the results from a trend
indicator for discovering short-term overbought or oversold conditions. As the oscillator approaches the upper
extreme value the stock is overbought, while in the lower extreme it is oversold.
RELATIVE STRENGTH A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent losses to determine overbought and
INDEX (RSI) oversold conditions of the stock. The stock is overbought (overvalued) once the RSI approaches the 80-level.
Meanwhile, the stock is oversold (undervalued) as the RSI approaches the 20-level.
STOCHASTIC A technical momentum indicator that compares a security’s closing price to its price range over a given time
period. The stock is overbought when the indicator is above 80 and oversold when it is below 20.
Source: Investopedia.com
Disclaimer
This report is for information purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of
an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each
security’s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings.
Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and
volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors may receive back less
than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal
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(Formerly known as Aseambankers Malaysia Berhad)
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TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE ▪ 29 May 2009 Page 6 of 6