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Ohio Demographics-Welcoming Economies conference 2015

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Overview of Ohio's demographic trends for a panel on the potential of immigrants and refugees in revitalizing legacy city neighborhoods.

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Ohio Demographics-Welcoming Economies conference 2015

  1. 1. Alison D. Goebel, PhD Associate Director Greater Ohio Policy Center July 9, 2015
  2. 2. ABOUT GREATER OHIO POLICY CENTER An outcome-oriented statewide non-profit that champions revitalization and sustainable redevelopment in Ohio: • Revitalize Ohio’s urban cores and metropolitan regions • Achieve sustainable land reuse and economic growth
  3. 3. OHIO’S POPULATION GROWTH HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE 1970S Exhibit 1-1. Total Population, 1910-2014 14,000,000 12,000,000 11,594,163 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014 Year Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses and 2014 State Total Population Estimates
  4. 4. OHIO’S PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH FOR NEXT 25 YEARS IS MINIMAL 2015-2040: Population growth Ohio: expected to grow 0.04% per year (bringing state’s total population to ~11,678,970 by 2040) • Ohio 2014 population: 11,594,163 • Net gain of ~85,000 residents by 2040 United States: expected to grow 0.69% per year (adding nearly 60 million people to the populace) • US 2014 population: 318,857,056
  5. 5. THERE HAS BEEN OVERALL POPULATION LOSS IN OHIO’S LARGE LEGACY CITIES 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 Population Change in Ohio Cities, 1970-2013 Population in 1970 Population in 2013 Source: 2009-2013 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates
  6. 6. CHANGE IN POPULATION FROM 2000 TO 2013 FOR OHIO’S SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZED CITIES -9.63% 2.74% -3.77% -6.75% -4.02% -5.70% -2.64% -7.55% -18.91% -1.59% -20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00%
  7. 7. IN 2013 RESIDENTIAL VACANCY RATES EXCEEDED 10% IN OHIO’S MAJOR CITIES 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Source: 2009-2013 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates
  8. 8. RESIDENTIAL VACANCY RATES EXCEEDED 10% IN OHIO’S MID- AND SMALL-SIZED CITIES, IN 2013 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% Source: 2009-2013 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates
  9. 9. OHIO IS AGING; OLDER COUNTIES ARE NOT EXPECTING YOUNGER COHORTS TO REPLACE AGING RESIDENTS 2015: population age 55+ Projected overall population growth 2015-2040
  10. 10. OHIO’S MILLENNIALS (AGES 25-34) 91% of Ohio’s millennials with college degrees live in the state’s 8 largest metros
  11. 11. OHIO IS BECOMING MORE RACIALLY/ETHNICALLY DIVERSE: THIS IS A GOOD TREND
  12. 12. OHIO’S IMMIGRANT POPULATION TRENDS 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 Foreign-Born Population Total 2000 2013 Source: 2000 SF3 Sample Data and 2009-2013 ACS 5-Year Estimates
  13. 13. OHIO’S FOREIGN-BORN POPULATION 461,339 foreign born •4.25% of state population •~50% naturalized; ~50% not US citizen
  14. 14. OHIO’S FOREIGN-BORN POPULATION Largest foreign born population groups in Ohio: 1. Mexican (50,843) 6. British (14,233) 2. Indian (47,150) 7. Korean (12,345) 3. Chinese (28,543) 8. Filipino (13,867) 4. German (17,677) 9. Vietnamese (10,597) 5. Canadian (15,291) 10. Russian (9,856)
  15. 15. GOPC’S STATE POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 1. Create a loan program that links small business lending with neighborhood improvement efforts 2. Develop programming the connects entrepreneurs with vacant commercial buildings 3. Establish innovative financing programs that support infrastructure modernization and fund brownfield redevelopment 4. Increase state funding and federal funds flexed for transit 5. Implement a statewide Safe Streets policy to ensure safety of all users and encourage economic development
  16. 16. Alison D. Goebel, PhD Associate Director Greater Ohio Policy Center agoebel@greaterohio.or g @alisongoebelOH www.greaterohio.org 614-224-0187 @greaterohio

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