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                                   Real EstateTrends
                                    Real Estate Trends
                                   For the Hillsborough &
                                    Pasco County Markets
                                                     June 2009




                                      The data provided has been researched from the Greater Tampa Association
                                      of Realtors Mid-Florida Regional Multiple Listing Service.


                                      The opinions and forecast of future Real Estate Trends are provided by
                                      Mario Polo.
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                                   Where Is The Market Going?
            Where Are We Going
                                                           June 2009




           May numbers are in and we had a 9.4% increase in activity compared to May 2008. Compared to 2008,
           our market has shown a steady increase in units sold.


           POSITIVE NEWS:
           May home sales hit a 23 month high, according to statistics released by the Greater Tampa Association of
           Realtors (GTAR). Sales totaled 1440 for the month, the largest number in the county since June 2007.

           The number of sales reduced the available inventory of homes for sale in the county. The current inventory
           of 10.61 months is the lowest since December 2006.



            Commentary continued on page 2




                                                           1
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                                    Where Is The Market Going?
                                              Where Are We Going
                                                         June 2009



           Commentary continued from page 1


       The 2009 Tax Credit is definitely increasing sales in the Tampa area.
       These are positive signs which we will watch closely in the months ahead.


       P.S. The following is a recap of the listing and sales history from January 2004 through May 2009. This
       information is provided from our Mid-Florida Regional Multiple Listing Service and most of these transactions
       occurred in Hillsborough and Pasco Counties.




                                                         2
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                                   Monthly Closed Sales
                                   Monthly Closed Sales
                                                          June 2009




       MONTHLY SALES ARE:
       The number of closed sales that have taken place in a particular month. This is a strong indicator in determining
       the direction of the market. The data on the following pages suggest that 2009 will be a much better sales year
       than the previous 2 years.


       POSITIVE NEWS:
       May 2009 Closed Sales were 1440 which was a 9.4% increase of May 2008 Closed Sales. Year-to-date Closed
       Sales have increased by 1014 units, which reflects a 19% increase.




                                                         3
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                                                Monthly Closed Sales
                                       Monthly Closed Sales Line
                                                                 Prepared by Mario Polo

      3500



      3000



      2500



      2000



      1500



      1000



      500



        0
                 Jan            Feb     March     April   May           June         July   Aug    Sept   Oct    Nov    Dec

      2004       1336           1557    2043      2067    2163          2716         2453   2216   1722   1909   1750   2304
      2005       1652           1948    2644      2783    3003          3203         2932   2937   2710   2234   2298   2646
      2006       1681           1718    2403      2108    2371          2340         1887   1895   1718   1577   1470   1898
      2007       1121           1209    1357      1249    1301          1446         1268   1384   1006   1133   977    1099
      2008       791            813     1162      1235    1316          1394         1336   1327   1345   1198   1036   1207
      2009       942            1120    1400      1429    1440
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                                   Projected Closed Sales
                                   Projected Closed Sales
                                                        June 2009




       PROJECTED CLOSED SALES:
       At the start of 2009, I added my projection of closed sales for 2009. This was an addition to our previous
       reports. I am somewhat pleased to report that my projections have been exceeded by actual sales.

       My Year-to-date Projections called for a 16.6% increase in closed sales through May 2009. Actual sales closed
       were 19% increased over the first five months of 2008..




                                                        5
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                                            Projected Closed Sales
                           Projected Closed Sales Line Chart
                                                              Prepared by Mario Polo

               2000


               1800


               1600


               1400


               1200


               1000


                800


                600


                400


                200


                    0
                          Jan        Feb     March    April      May      June         July   Aug    Sept   Oct    Nov    Dec

      2007                1121       1209    1357    1249     1301         1446        1268   1384   1006   1133   977    1099
      2008                791        813     1162    1235     1316         1394        1336   1327   1345   1198   1036   1207
      2009 Projected      900        1100    1300    1400     1500         1600        1700   1800   1800   1600   1700   1800
      2009 Actual         942        1120    1400    1429     1440
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                                    Average Sales Price
                                   Average Sales Price
                                                       June 2009




       GOOD NEWS:

       Our average sales price for May 2009 was $165,425 which was an increase of $8,336 over April 2009. Since
       January 2009 through May 2009, we have been trending from a low of $157,089 to $168,071. This suggests that
       we have bottomed out and values may hold at these levels.




                                                       7
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                                                        Average Sales Price
                                               Average Sales Price Line
                                                                               Prepared by Mario Polo

     $350,000.00



     $300,000.00



     $250,000.00



     $200,000.00



     $150,000.00



     $100,000.00



      $50,000.00



           $0.00
                      Jan            Feb        March          April         May          June          July          Aug          Sept          Oct           Nov           Dec

            2004   $192,910.00   $182,812.00   $180,227.00   $190,980.00   $195,350.00   $215,389.00   $214,660.00   $208,023.00   $206,724.00   $208,495.00   $206,575.00   $209,059.00
            2005   $219,186.00   $213,087.00   $225,553.00   $228,809.00   $237,533.00   $257,600.00   $260,221.00   $248,690.00   $257,283.00   $269,403.00   $264,381.00   $261,815.00
            2006   $256,189.00   $258,271.00   $261,635.00   $266,072.00   $269,312.00   $287,019.00   $275,266.00   $274,378.00   $263,973.00   $265,923.00   $262,666.00   $259,363.00
            2007   $259,065.00   $265,149.00   $254,856.00   $261,731.00   $266,082.00   $273,190.00   $269,058.00   $262,629.00   $249,042.00   $259,460.00   $250,283.00   $267,117.00
            2008   $246,260.00   $240,077.00   $230,204.00   $222,254.00   $244,977.00   $227,565.00   $225,692.00   $213,002.00   $207,809.00   $187,344.00   $182,313.00   $186,297.00
            2009   $160,530.00   $160,145.00   $168,071.00   $157,089.00   $165,425.00
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                                        Current Inventory
                                       Current Inventory
                                                         June 2009




       NORMAL MARKET:
       A normal market is widely considered to be one that has six months of homes available for sale. Our current
       availability of homes for sale is 15,273, which is 6638 more homes available than our current monthly sales can
       absorb.

       POSITIVE NEWS:
       Compared to May 2008, our Current Inventory has decreased by 4485 units. Hopefully this trend will continue.
       May 2009 compared to April 2009 also reflected a decrease in current inventory of 854 units, a 5.3% decrease.




                                                        9
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                                                 Current Inventory
                                          Current Inventory Line
                                                                  Prepared by Mario Polo

     25000




     20000




     15000




     10000




      5000




        0
                 Jan            Feb     March    April     May           June         July           Aug            Sept           Oct            Nov            Dec

      2004       9252           5896    5697     5317      5102          4921         4626           4474           4405           4686           4707           4433
      2005       4687           4386    4084     3772      3709          3835         4047           4457           5318           6886           7420           7858
      2006       9656          10865    12230     13707     14112           16082            17036          17785          16991          18029          18090          17154
      2007      18707           19234    19814     20409     20793           20821           20649          20680          20218          20942          20768          19354
      2008      20237           20486    20141     20117     19758           19363           19391          19481          19109          19148          19042          17650
      2009      17733           17403    16778     16127     15273
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                                      Months of Inventory
                                     Months of Inventory
                                                          June 2009




            NORMAL MARKET:
            As stated previously, a normal market is considered to be one that has six months of homes available for
            sale. This is considered to be a balanced market where neither buyer or seller has an advantage based on
            available supply.

            POSITIVE NEWS:
            When we compare May 2008 to May 2009, we can see a decrease of almost 5 months of inventory. A Huge
            Difference. We expect this trend to continue in the months ahead. When we compare May 2009 to April
            2009, our months of inventory continues to decrease. Many would argue that inventory has been our
            number one problem over the previous 3 years.




                                                         11
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                                               Months of Inventory
                                       Months of Inventory Line
                                                                Prepared by Mario Polo

       30




       25




       20




       15




       10




        5




        0
                 Jan            Feb    March    April   May            June         July    Aug     Sept    Oct     Nov     Dec

      2004       6.93           3.79   2.79     2.57    2.36            1.81        1.89    2.02    2.56    2.45    2.69    1.92
      2005       2.84           2.25   1.54     1.36    1.24            1.2         1.38    1.52    1.96    3.08    3.23    2.97
      2006       5.74           6.32   5.09      6.5    5.95            6.87        9.03    9.39    9.89    11.43   12.31   9.04
      2007      16.69          15.91   14.6     16.34   15.98           14.4        16.28   14.94   20.1    18.48   21.26   17.61
      2008      25.58           25.2   17.33    16.29   15.01          13.89        14.51   14.68   14.21   15.98   18.38   14.62
      2009      18.82          15.54   11.98    11.29   10.61
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                                                 Summation
                                                 Summation
                                                          June 2009

       OVER ALL POSITIVE NEWS:

       1.      May 2009 Monthly Sales increased 9.4% compared to May 2008.

       2.      Compared to May 2008, our Current Inventory has decreased by 4485 units.

       3.      Months of Inventory, when compared to May 2008, has decreased by 4.4 months.

       4.      $8000 Tax Credit Bill is starting to improve sales.
                  a. The Federal Government has approved a program to advance the $8000 tax credit at closing. See
                     attached article. http://www2.tbo.com/content/2009/may/13/sp-home-sales-may-get-a-push/

       5.     Average Sales Price increased by 5.3% when compared to April 2009.

       As Sales improve in 2009, all of these indicators, we believe, will continue to create further positive trends for
           2009.


           Summation continued on page 14




                                                         13
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                                                    Summation
                                                    Summation
                                                           June 2009



       Summation continued from page 13



      The data suggests that our market will improve in the months ahead. We have experienced increased sales and the
      May numbers suggest that there will be a similar increase in sales in the months ahead.

      •Our Financial System is still under stress
      •Our new Stimulus for Home Buyers is improving sales for First-Time Homebuyers.
      •The World Economies are struggling for answers.
      •June closings will be a further indicator of how strong sales will be this summer.
      •Short Sales and Foreclosures are still a major challenge to our market.

      We look forward to an exciting year in home sales for Tampa Bay, even though our unemployed numbers are still
      high and lenders are still being very restrictive with loans. Interest rates are increasing.




                                                          14

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Era Real Estate Trends June 09

  • 1. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Real EstateTrends Real Estate Trends For the Hillsborough & Pasco County Markets June 2009 The data provided has been researched from the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors Mid-Florida Regional Multiple Listing Service. The opinions and forecast of future Real Estate Trends are provided by Mario Polo.
  • 2. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Where Is The Market Going? Where Are We Going June 2009 May numbers are in and we had a 9.4% increase in activity compared to May 2008. Compared to 2008, our market has shown a steady increase in units sold. POSITIVE NEWS: May home sales hit a 23 month high, according to statistics released by the Greater Tampa Association of Realtors (GTAR). Sales totaled 1440 for the month, the largest number in the county since June 2007. The number of sales reduced the available inventory of homes for sale in the county. The current inventory of 10.61 months is the lowest since December 2006. Commentary continued on page 2 1
  • 3. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Where Is The Market Going? Where Are We Going June 2009 Commentary continued from page 1 The 2009 Tax Credit is definitely increasing sales in the Tampa area. These are positive signs which we will watch closely in the months ahead. P.S. The following is a recap of the listing and sales history from January 2004 through May 2009. This information is provided from our Mid-Florida Regional Multiple Listing Service and most of these transactions occurred in Hillsborough and Pasco Counties. 2
  • 4. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Monthly Closed Sales Monthly Closed Sales June 2009 MONTHLY SALES ARE: The number of closed sales that have taken place in a particular month. This is a strong indicator in determining the direction of the market. The data on the following pages suggest that 2009 will be a much better sales year than the previous 2 years. POSITIVE NEWS: May 2009 Closed Sales were 1440 which was a 9.4% increase of May 2008 Closed Sales. Year-to-date Closed Sales have increased by 1014 units, which reflects a 19% increase. 3
  • 5. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Monthly Closed Sales Monthly Closed Sales Line Prepared by Mario Polo 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2004 1336 1557 2043 2067 2163 2716 2453 2216 1722 1909 1750 2304 2005 1652 1948 2644 2783 3003 3203 2932 2937 2710 2234 2298 2646 2006 1681 1718 2403 2108 2371 2340 1887 1895 1718 1577 1470 1898 2007 1121 1209 1357 1249 1301 1446 1268 1384 1006 1133 977 1099 2008 791 813 1162 1235 1316 1394 1336 1327 1345 1198 1036 1207 2009 942 1120 1400 1429 1440
  • 6. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Projected Closed Sales Projected Closed Sales June 2009 PROJECTED CLOSED SALES: At the start of 2009, I added my projection of closed sales for 2009. This was an addition to our previous reports. I am somewhat pleased to report that my projections have been exceeded by actual sales. My Year-to-date Projections called for a 16.6% increase in closed sales through May 2009. Actual sales closed were 19% increased over the first five months of 2008.. 5
  • 7. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Projected Closed Sales Projected Closed Sales Line Chart Prepared by Mario Polo 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2007 1121 1209 1357 1249 1301 1446 1268 1384 1006 1133 977 1099 2008 791 813 1162 1235 1316 1394 1336 1327 1345 1198 1036 1207 2009 Projected 900 1100 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1800 1600 1700 1800 2009 Actual 942 1120 1400 1429 1440
  • 8. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Average Sales Price Average Sales Price June 2009 GOOD NEWS: Our average sales price for May 2009 was $165,425 which was an increase of $8,336 over April 2009. Since January 2009 through May 2009, we have been trending from a low of $157,089 to $168,071. This suggests that we have bottomed out and values may hold at these levels. 7
  • 9. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Average Sales Price Average Sales Price Line Prepared by Mario Polo $350,000.00 $300,000.00 $250,000.00 $200,000.00 $150,000.00 $100,000.00 $50,000.00 $0.00 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2004 $192,910.00 $182,812.00 $180,227.00 $190,980.00 $195,350.00 $215,389.00 $214,660.00 $208,023.00 $206,724.00 $208,495.00 $206,575.00 $209,059.00 2005 $219,186.00 $213,087.00 $225,553.00 $228,809.00 $237,533.00 $257,600.00 $260,221.00 $248,690.00 $257,283.00 $269,403.00 $264,381.00 $261,815.00 2006 $256,189.00 $258,271.00 $261,635.00 $266,072.00 $269,312.00 $287,019.00 $275,266.00 $274,378.00 $263,973.00 $265,923.00 $262,666.00 $259,363.00 2007 $259,065.00 $265,149.00 $254,856.00 $261,731.00 $266,082.00 $273,190.00 $269,058.00 $262,629.00 $249,042.00 $259,460.00 $250,283.00 $267,117.00 2008 $246,260.00 $240,077.00 $230,204.00 $222,254.00 $244,977.00 $227,565.00 $225,692.00 $213,002.00 $207,809.00 $187,344.00 $182,313.00 $186,297.00 2009 $160,530.00 $160,145.00 $168,071.00 $157,089.00 $165,425.00
  • 10. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Current Inventory Current Inventory June 2009 NORMAL MARKET: A normal market is widely considered to be one that has six months of homes available for sale. Our current availability of homes for sale is 15,273, which is 6638 more homes available than our current monthly sales can absorb. POSITIVE NEWS: Compared to May 2008, our Current Inventory has decreased by 4485 units. Hopefully this trend will continue. May 2009 compared to April 2009 also reflected a decrease in current inventory of 854 units, a 5.3% decrease. 9
  • 11. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Current Inventory Current Inventory Line Prepared by Mario Polo 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2004 9252 5896 5697 5317 5102 4921 4626 4474 4405 4686 4707 4433 2005 4687 4386 4084 3772 3709 3835 4047 4457 5318 6886 7420 7858 2006 9656 10865 12230 13707 14112 16082 17036 17785 16991 18029 18090 17154 2007 18707 19234 19814 20409 20793 20821 20649 20680 20218 20942 20768 19354 2008 20237 20486 20141 20117 19758 19363 19391 19481 19109 19148 19042 17650 2009 17733 17403 16778 16127 15273
  • 12. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Months of Inventory Months of Inventory June 2009 NORMAL MARKET: As stated previously, a normal market is considered to be one that has six months of homes available for sale. This is considered to be a balanced market where neither buyer or seller has an advantage based on available supply. POSITIVE NEWS: When we compare May 2008 to May 2009, we can see a decrease of almost 5 months of inventory. A Huge Difference. We expect this trend to continue in the months ahead. When we compare May 2009 to April 2009, our months of inventory continues to decrease. Many would argue that inventory has been our number one problem over the previous 3 years. 11
  • 13. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Months of Inventory Months of Inventory Line Prepared by Mario Polo 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2004 6.93 3.79 2.79 2.57 2.36 1.81 1.89 2.02 2.56 2.45 2.69 1.92 2005 2.84 2.25 1.54 1.36 1.24 1.2 1.38 1.52 1.96 3.08 3.23 2.97 2006 5.74 6.32 5.09 6.5 5.95 6.87 9.03 9.39 9.89 11.43 12.31 9.04 2007 16.69 15.91 14.6 16.34 15.98 14.4 16.28 14.94 20.1 18.48 21.26 17.61 2008 25.58 25.2 17.33 16.29 15.01 13.89 14.51 14.68 14.21 15.98 18.38 14.62 2009 18.82 15.54 11.98 11.29 10.61
  • 14. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Summation Summation June 2009 OVER ALL POSITIVE NEWS: 1. May 2009 Monthly Sales increased 9.4% compared to May 2008. 2. Compared to May 2008, our Current Inventory has decreased by 4485 units. 3. Months of Inventory, when compared to May 2008, has decreased by 4.4 months. 4. $8000 Tax Credit Bill is starting to improve sales. a. The Federal Government has approved a program to advance the $8000 tax credit at closing. See attached article. http://www2.tbo.com/content/2009/may/13/sp-home-sales-may-get-a-push/ 5. Average Sales Price increased by 5.3% when compared to April 2009. As Sales improve in 2009, all of these indicators, we believe, will continue to create further positive trends for 2009. Summation continued on page 14 13
  • 15. Click Here & Upgrade Expanded Features PDF Unlimited Pages Documents Complete Summation Summation June 2009 Summation continued from page 13 The data suggests that our market will improve in the months ahead. We have experienced increased sales and the May numbers suggest that there will be a similar increase in sales in the months ahead. •Our Financial System is still under stress •Our new Stimulus for Home Buyers is improving sales for First-Time Homebuyers. •The World Economies are struggling for answers. •June closings will be a further indicator of how strong sales will be this summer. •Short Sales and Foreclosures are still a major challenge to our market. We look forward to an exciting year in home sales for Tampa Bay, even though our unemployed numbers are still high and lenders are still being very restrictive with loans. Interest rates are increasing. 14