3. MOUNTAINS
A view from the top
Influence concentrates amongst the
already powerful as advantage
powerful,
brings more advantage
Less dynamic economic
development, muted by rigidities in
structures and institutions.
Secondary policy developments
facilitated, e.g. climate (CCS).
Natural gas becomes the backbone
of the global energy system.
A profound shift occurs in global
transport and infrastructure.
4. MOUNTAINS
Total primary energy by source
1200
EJ/ye
ear
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Year
Oil
Biomass Gasified
Biomass Traditional
Geothermal
Biofuels
Coal
Nuclear
Solar
Natural Gas
Biomass/Waste
Hydroelectricty
Wind
Other
renewables
5. OCEANS
A view from the horizon
Emerging interests intermittently
accommodated.
accommodated Influence widely
distributed (e.g. “Twitter” world).
C
Core reforms unleash growth – and
f
l
h
th
d
expectations for further reform.
Markets dominate and more
empowered constituencies hinder
some secondary policy advancement
(i.e. CCS comes much later).
Hi h prices and th rise of
Higher i
d the i
f
distributed solar PV change the
energy system.
gy y
6. OCEANS
Total primary energy by source
1200
EJ/ye
ear
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Year
Oil
Biomass Gasified
Biomass Traditional
Geothermal
Biofuels
Coal
Nuclear
Solar
Natural Gas
Biomass/Waste
Hydroelectricty
Wind
Other
renewables
8. The climate change problem
Need to avoid the trillionth tonne1 of carbon to stay below 2°C . . .
y
1 trillion tonnes
0.8
~2°C
0.6
2000 2012
2000-2012
0.4
1950 1999
1950-1999
0.2
1900-1949
Starting in
1750
1Warming
0
1850-1899
1800-1849
caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne.
Myles R. Allen, Malte Meinshausen et. al. Nature Vol 458, 30 April 2009
9. The climate change problem
. . and using current proven1 fossil reserves2 takes us well over the mark.
Early 2040’s
~4°C
4
2000 2012
2000-2012
~3°C
3
1950 1999
1950-1999
1900-1949
Starting in
1750
1BP
2
1850-1899
1800-1849
Statistical Review of World Energy
Current reserves of oil and gas are ~60 years each, coal ~110 years at current usage rates
1.6 trillion
tonnes, with
continued
ti
d
land use
change and
cement
production
. . . . . and
probably still
rising into
next
century
century.
10. Current policies may slow this down,
but are unlikely to solve the problem!
“We will reduce the CO2 intensity o the eco o y by 30%
e
educe e
e s y of e economy
30%.
“By 2020, renewable energy will make up 20% of the energy supply”
“We must first improve energy efficiency, that will reduce emissions”
“We must stimulate clean energy investment”
11. Carbon capture and storage is different
• Carbon is returned to the
“geosphere” where it came
from.
from
• There is no geographical
(emit it somewhere else) or
temporal (emit it later) shift
effect.
effect
• Even limited local action
has a global benefit.
12. Mountains
A gas “backbone” with early and rapid deployment of CCS limits the stock
Late 2040’s
2000 2012
2000-2012
1950 1999
1950-1999
1900-1949
Starting in
1750
1850-1899
1800-1849
Capped
by ~2100
13. Oceans
CCS comes 20-30 years later with the result that the end stock is higher
Late 2040’s
2000 2012
2000-2012
1950 1999
1950-1999
1900-1949
Starting in
1750
1850-1899
1800-1849
Capped
by ~2110
14. Emissions in 2050 are stubbornly high
Neither scenario meets current 2020 or 2050 goals or 2°C but because of
g
CCS deployment both see emissions head to zero within this century
Global CO2 Emissions, Gt per an
C
nnum
60
50
Mountains
Oceans
40
30
1990
emissions
20
50% reduction
vs. 1990
10
0
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
15. CCS in the New Lens Scenarios
25
Oceans
Mountains
CO2 Stored, GT per an
O
nnum
20
15
10
5
0
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
16. The big dilemma – energy technologies
take a generation to get going!
17. Key points on CCS development
• Managing climate change means managing the
(
)
cumulative emissions of CO2 (under 1 trillion tonnes)
• CCS is the only technology that deals directly with
the “stock” emissions issue.
stock
issue
• Net zero emissions is an eventual “must have”.
• CCS needs to come early and be rapidly deployed,
gy
g
but like all energy technologies it will take a
“generation” to really take hold.
• Waiting for a high renewables energy mix creates
additional carbon “stock” and additional warming.
18. Disclaimer
This scenarios presentation contains forward-looking statements
that may affect Shell’s financial condition, results of operations,
and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than
statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be,
forward-looking statements. F
f
d l ki
t t
t
Forward-looking statements are
d l ki
t t
t
statements of future expectations that are based on
management’s current expectations and assumptions and
involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could
cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially
from those expressed or implied in these statements.
Forward-looking statements include, among other things,
statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch
Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s
expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections, and
assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by
their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘believe’’,
‘‘could’’, ‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’,
‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘risks’’,
seek should target will
phrases.
‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’, and similar terms and phrases
There are a number of factors that could affect the future
operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results
to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking
statements included in this scenarios book, including (without
limitation):(a) i fluctuations i crude oil and natural gas; (b)
li it ti ) ( ) price fl t ti
in
d
il
d t l
changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency
fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results;(e) reserves
estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g)
environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the
identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and
targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such
transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing
countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j)
legislative, fi
l i l ti
fiscal, and regulatory d
l
d
l t
developments i l di
l
t
including
regulatory measures addressingclimate change; (k) economic
and financial market conditions in various countries and regions;
(l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and
renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental
entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects, and
delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes
in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in
this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the
cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section.
Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking
statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are
contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended
December
31,
2012
which
is
available
at
www.shell.com/investor
www shell com/investor and www sec gov
www.sec.gov.
These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each
forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this
scenarios presentation, 15th November 2013. Neither Royal
Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation
to
t publicly update or revise any f
bli l
d t
i
forwardlooking statement as a
dl ki
t t
t
result of new information, future events or other information. In
light of these risks, results could differ materially from those
stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements
contained in this scenarios presentation.
